Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts

Every year in Pro Football there is an “It” team in which the entire betting public attempts to ride out week after week throughout the year, and usually get there more times than not. This year it is the New Orleans Saints who have wowed the audience with a seemingly unstoppable offense.

Art Manteris, Vice-President of Station Casino’s huge operation of Las Vegas Sports Books can’t fault the perception.

“The Saints are one of the favorites of the public thus far because of their high powered offense and the fact that they have covered easily in in their first two games. I had a few respected people tell me early on how high they were on the Saints, and wagers on season totals reflected so.”

Station’s opened the Saints 9 under -135 and ended up closing 9 over -120. A huge variable in that total‘s equation, the road game at Philadelphia, was answered last week when the Saints destroyed the McNabb-’less Eagles making the early moves seem to have a huge edge at this juncture.

Over at the Wynn Las Vegas, Johnny Avello is seeing the same type of public reaction to this years darlings of the public.

“The Saints are scoring at will, which goes a long way in the public’s mind. We opened the game Saints -5.5 and we’re currently at -6, “ Avello said.

Usually early lines are pushed up by the sharps giving an early glimpse to the hand that the they may hold, but it’s not the case this week with the Saints who also opened the game at -5.5.

“Thus far, we haven’t really seen any large bets on the Saints, Avello said, “What we have is a huge culmination of wagers on the Saints that have passed our barrier of a moving based on money. -5.5 isn’t a number we sit too long at, but the money kept coming in early forcing our move.”

Avello was pointing how dead a number -5 or -5.5 is and if it’s that attractive early on, -6 shouldn’t affect how the public feels one way or another.

“It isn’t going to stop there either, Avello said. “Since moving, we’ve had the same type of action coming in that we had at -5.5.

Avello also has the initial risk on the Saints game from the outset at his high limit book that already has him uneasy going into Sunday’s game.

“We have excess parlay’s from last Monday night’s game going heavy into the Saints game laying -5.5 making the risk uncomfortable before the real action even came in.”

If we look at the reality of the game, the Saints have won at home against Detroit and beat an Eagles team without their General. They are moving the ball at will, and the Philly win against one of the better defenses is impressive, however, the Sharps haven’t come in on a side yet. It’s likely that if, and when, the books eventually go to -7 there will be some sharp action on the Bills at home.

On the college side of the action, there have only been a few small moves. One of them is a side close to several people in Las Vegas with the UNLV Rebels at Wyoming this week where the line has gone from UNLV a -5.5 opening line home favorite all the way to -3.

“I think that move is coming straight from a past performance aspect of the Rebels on the road, UNLV alumnus Manteris said. “UNLV just hasn’t produced under Coach Sanford’s tenure on the road.”

There is a tremendous amount of support for Manteris' road theory on UNLV as to why the sharps and public are betting against the Rebels?

In the last five seasons after a non-conference game, UNLV is 1-10 straight up as a favorite on the road. In the last two years, UNLV has gone 0-8 SU against a Mountain West team on the road.

Laying an initial line of -5.5 after the power ranking had Wyoming getting only +7 against the struggling Big 12 team of Colorado does seem a little based on UNLV's past road history.

Big Moves of the week - Lines courtesy of the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook

College Football

Minnesota -1.5 @ Northwestern: This has been bet early and often throughout the week where Northwestern opened as a -3 favorite Monday and on Thursday afternoon pushed the home team being favored -1.5 to the road team -1.5.

Maryland -1 vs. Rutgers: Pushed from Rutgers a -3 points favorite Monday to pick, but on Thursday afternoon Rutgers money came in where it settled back at -1.

Boston College -2.5 vs. Wake Forest: Wake opened up a -1 home dog but has been systematically bet to B.C. the favorite.

UNLV -3 @ Wyoming: Rebels opened up -5.5 and has been bet down to -3 by Thursday morning.

Utah -14 vs. Louisville: The Utes opened a short -12 on Monday but was bet quickly to -14 by Tuesday morning.

USC -46 vs. Washington St.: Combination of Barkley starting and a large line that moves quickly has moved the Monday line from Monday’s opener of -43 to -46.The large spread doesn’t and move doesn’t mean as much as a game in single digits.

Pro Football

Eagles -8.5 vs. Chiefs: Game opened Monday at -9.5 at limited action. Not many books offered a line.

Giants -6.5 @ Buccaneers: Early bets came on Tampa at the attractive number of +7, nothing since.

Saints -6.5 @ Bills: Public appears to have pushed this up from the opening number of -4.5.

Cardinals -3 +105 vs. Colts: Number opened -2 and is inching closer to -3 flat which it might be by game day. The variance will be the public in the late game betting the Colts.

Cowboys -8.5 vs. Panthers: Line opened -9.5, bet down by Tuesday where it’s stayed. Since it’s a Monday night game, it’s likely to go up more than it will go down courtesy of the public by game day.

Dead Games: No action at all one way of another on the side or total of the Bears/Seahawks and Browns/Ravens games.