Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
It was almost like betting heaven watching all the initial betting action on the college football lines Monday afternoon, the first of it's kind in this young season. Each book's opening lines immediately tell you where the numbers will go, and who they wanted to take their first bet on, but to actually watch it all unfold for the first time this year was invigorating.
Football season is upon us and we'll be at full throttle all weekend beginning Thursday night with the Saints/Packers and Arizona/Oklahoma State all the way through the double-header Monday night football action. The overload of football is going to come in strong and heavy doses, so be prepared and stay hydrated.
Last week was the first slate of college football play on the field, but the lines had been up for three months making the week of their first game not as intense at the windows with a late money push coming on game day.
Pro football has the same type of situation this week where their games have been open since April so there wasn't really any rush to the bet windows other than trying to get action on the Texans as it became more apparent that Peyton Manning would not start for the first time in his career.
But at what point is it that the drop off from not having Manning is too much? Most sportsbooks have settled on the Texans being an 8 ½-point favorite after initially opening it -6 ½ when news broke that he likely wouldn't play. The early line had the Colts as a 1-point favorite before knowing the severity of Manning's neck problems. We're talking almost a 10-point swing here....for one player? That is crazy! It's unheard of -- and likely too overpriced -- but how else are you going to sell Kerry Collins to the public?
Sportsbooks that have tested the waters with Houston -9 have quickly got action on the Colts, so we know that is threshold. Most sportsbook directors feel the game is way too high, but have reacted quickly with moves on low limits as the bets have come in. The feeling amongst many of the books is that the line should be around -6 ½, but at this point they're just moving with the action. As we get closer to kickoff, it wouldn't be a surprise to see heavy action come in on the Colts when the game is taken out of the circle, or limited action.
If you're a sharp bettor with an opinion on the game, why would you waste your valuable opinion for sportsbooks to follow for a mere $2,000 when you can wait and get $20,000 on it?
As for the value of Manning, he is without a doubt the most valuable player to any team, but probably is still worth only seven points. He has taken a mediocre team the last few seasons and routinely made them a championship caliber squad just because of how well he operates the offense on the fly.
His impact will also be felt on an emotional level with his teammates. It's much easier to play well and wait for the other team to make mistakes when you're always ahead or in close games. What's going to happen if the Colts get down to a team they have virtually owned knowing they don't have No. 18 back there to lead the charge back. Kerry Collins is a serviceable quarterback, but he hasn't had time to mesh with the team and even had the Colts star receiver, Reggie Wayne, being vocal about him being named the starter in preseason.
Sharp moves of the week include the Steelers, Rams and Saints. The public plays will continue to be with the Browns, Texans, Falcons, Eagles, Giants, Cardinals and Patriots.
The surprise off the public list this week is the Chargers as it looks like last season is still stinging with many of their backers. Reports have seen pretty balanced action, or at least far less one-sided than most Charger games, with the Vikings finding some supporters in hopes of Norv Turner remaining Norv Turner this season.
Here's a look at the biggest movers in pro football through Thursday compared to the Las Vegas Hilton's initial week one opening lines of April 23:
The Ravens opened -3 (EV) against the Steelers and are now -1½.
The Buccaneers opened as 3-point home favorites against the Lions, got early Lions money and have now bounced around from -1½ to -2 where it sits now.
Chicago opened as 1-point favorites and are now +3 (-120) against the Falcons.
Kansas City opened -6½ against the Bills, dropped to -5½ and then bet back up to -6.
Cleveland opened -3 (EV) against the Bengals and quickly moved up to -6½.
Jacksonville was a -2½ home favorite against Tennessee, went up to -3, and then off the board when David Garrard was released. It went back up as Jacksonville -2 and has stayed there showing the lack of respect for Garrard and also showing the impact of great QB's when comparing Manning.
Arizona opened as a 3-point home favorite against Carolina and were quickly bet up to -7 after watching Kolb and Fitzgerald play catch in the pre-season.
The 49ers were -6½ against the Seahawks and have been bet down to -5.
San Diego opened -10½ and were bet against early down to -9 and finally -8½ where it sits now.
The Jets opened -4 and were bet up to -4½, then got action on Thursday forcing a move to the dead number of -5½, skipping -5 altogether.
New England opened -3½ and has been bet up to -7.
Denver opened as -1½ home-favorites and were moved to -3 on a combination of bets and air moves due to Broncos looking much improved and the Raiders looking awful in pre-season.
College Football Moves of the Week:
Wisconsin got early sharp action at -19½ and was bet up to -21 where it sits now against Oregon State.
Kentucky moved from -11½ to -13 in their home against Central Michigan.
SMU opened as a -17-point home favorite against UTEP and moved quickly up the ladder to -20 until finding some takers dropping it back to -19 where it sits now.
Tulane has found a lot of sharp play at +14 all the way down to +11½, where it sits now, for their home game against Tulsa.
East Carolina has been bet on for their home game against Virginia Tech taking +20 all the way down to +17½ where it sits now.
Washington was mysteriously put up as a -3½-point favorite in what looks kind of like a shady opening number that many sports books followed and was quickly bet up to -6 against Hawaii where it sits now.
Stanford found some early action at -20½ at Duke, but sharp action took the +21 dropping the game back down where the public will continue to lay Stanford.
Florida has been bet from -21½ to -23 in their home game against UAB.
USC opened -10 in their home game against Utah have been bet against down to -8½.
Ball State sharp action came fast at +22½ for their road game at South Florida and currently sits at -20.
Vanderbilt was a surprise pick'em for their home game against Connecticut, and even more surprisingly, was bet up to a 2-point favorite. UConn money has showed a little and it currently sits at Vandy -1½.
Arkansas State has moved from -13½ to -15 against Memphis.