Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The first three weeks of pro football have been tough for the sportsbooks with most only having a marginal winning day in Week 2. Every bookmaker has their own philosophy of how to adjust to the times, if at all.
Some bookmakers like to ride out the cycle and not change too much of their philosophy knowing that it will come back, because ultimately the public loses in the long run. Others like to be pro-active and change with the trends eliminating risk as much as possible from the week to week.
Lucky’s legendary Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro has seen it all through his years of bookmaking in Las Vegas and is following his own expertise in how to combat what’s going on with the pro football favorites, in particular the obvious public teams.
“Right now, we’re over-inflating the Pro lines to start the week,” Vaccaro said. “With the favorites coming in like they have and the small money (public) coming on the favorites regardless, we’re looking to see if we can tempt the smarts a little early and watch every game very closely throughout the week.”
Thus far, most of the real line movements spurred by big money has been on game day, usually about 90 minutes or less to kickoff.
“The smarts have been getting beat up as well, so if they have a side they like, they have tended to wait themselves even they know the line is already inflated to see if they can get better”, says Vaccaro.
This week there are a couple marquee matchups and the public has already made no mistake about who they like without even having parlay cards out, a public favorite which is usually a great guide by looking at ticket counts for the public sides.
“A team like the Patriots only laying -2.5 points at home seems unheard of, but thus far we’re getting the small money on the Ravens up to this point. Dallas as a three-point favorite has been getting lots of small money already and I wouldn’t be surprised to see that game go to -3.5.”
The Patriots bet against seems understandable because of their struggles through three games and how strong the Ravens offense and defense looks, but going against Denver as a three-point home dog has never been a good deal in any of the Mile High coaching era’s.
“The public might be thinking Denver’s 3-0 record is phony based on who they played, even though they did hold the Bengals, who now look good, to only seven points,” said Vaccaro.
Vaccaro already knows how this scenario is going to play out before the results are even put in for any of the weekend games.
“We know if we go to -3.5 that we will get smart money on the Broncos getting +3.5 and we’ll be in a position where we have more action on the Broncos with straight bets, but because it’s a late game all the parlay risk from the small money throughout the day will outweigh what we take from the smarts.”
Pro Football Moves of the Week (LV Hilton SuperBook)
Not much action, except some of the usual key number action bumping the Saints to -7, Cowboys to -3, Rams to +9.5, and the Chargers to +6.5.
Key numbers in the Titans (-3), Bears (-10), and Redskins (-7) have shown little interest from either the public or sharp money, but as has been the trend all season, the sharps are likely to find two of those games of interest on game day.
NFL Early Total Move of the Week
The Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook opened the Dallas-Denver total at 44 and has been moved down to 42 while other books still have the game at 43. Last week, Denver’s total was 38 at Oakland and the Cowboys were 46 Monday night against the Panthers making the initial line appear to favor the Cowboys tempo as does the current side which has the road team bet up from an opener of -2.5 to -3.
The Broncos have the league's top-ranked defense in yardage and points scored against, but have compiled those numbers against the offenses of Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Oakland. Their offense appeared to struggle throughout all their games, but they have been affective at churning minutes off the clock with short passes and a strong running game ultimately wearing out teams in the second half.
It would appear that the initial total looks closer to what it should be, but with money betting the total down and betting the favorite up to -3, the thought process is the Cowboys will be able to expose the Broncos defense and the dink and dunk offense of Denver won’t be as good in catch up mode, unless Brandon Stokely saves the day again.
The running back issue with the Cowboys is not an issue because Tashard Choice has proven to be just as effective as Marion Barber and Julius Jones. The Broncos look to have gelled more and more each week with Josh McDaniels new system and now they finally get to have a fully functional Brandon Marshall added to the mix along with Knowshon Moreno. If forced to play catch up, they are better equipped than when the season started.
All signs look to having this game resemble Dallas’ game tempo with the Giants than it does against the Panthers which should make this a very high scoring, entertaining game.
College Football Moves of the Week (LV Hilton SuperBook)
# Wake Forest opened +1 at home to NC State and are now the favorite at -2.5.
# Virginia opened +15.5 and has been bet down to +13 at North Carolina.
# Ball State opened +6.5 and has been bet down to +4
# Kentucky opened +17.5 and has been bet down to +15 at home against Alabama.
# Temple opened a -4.5 road favorite at Eastern Michigan and is at -6.5.
# Michigan State opened a +1 home dog against Michigan but is now a -3.5 favorite.
# Oregon opened a -30 favorite at home against Washington State and are now -34.
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