Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
VegasInsider.com
The college football line moves are interesting to watch each week just to see what games the sharps pick on. I say "pick on" because it’s a tiered process of how the line evolves. A sportsbook has a few consultants who use a variety of methods to come up with rating. The book gets those recommendations, and then does what they want with the quality they pay for.
Most books use those consultant numbers to shade an opening line one way or another based on what the consensus, or market, number is out there using the top Las Vegas SportsBooks and the known high volume off-shore books as a barometer.
At that point, by conforming to what the market dictates, the initial lines paid for from the consultants are already diminished. On many occasions, the line will move to where the paid service recommended which gets us to the folks who force the line moves.
There are players with big money out there that play limits and move lines, but not always just because of a profile they’ve created for themselves over time with their bets. If a player is always laying the worst of the line and known not to be affiliated with sharp money, his limit bets may not even cause a move depending at what time of the week it is.
The ones who force the moves are a select few groups, who have their own very well paid consultants that do their own power numbers. They have the luxury of being able to look at 100 college games on the board and find the biggest disparity between their number and what the book is offering. Usually, it’s anywhere from 5 to 8 games a week that fits the criteria, or where they see a weakness in the line.
Generally, these players are known and very well respected with their plays. Because of that, their plan of attack, and when to hit the numbers is very calculated. The group consists of several bettors waiting around for the send, in Las Vegas books and on their computers for off-shore lines, on what games to bet and how high to go before the line is no longer attractive.
The sportsbooks they decide to make their first plays with are usually the ones that take the most money with hopes that the smaller books don’t move the line on air - that is without taking a bet and moving just because they see their screen lighting up. Their ultimate hope is that the bookmaker is asleep at the wheel when the moves happen to maximize their investment at the preferred line.
These groups with the several different representatives wagering orchestrate their maneuvers pretty swift and occasionally change faces at certain books to attempt a profile change with where the bets are coming from. It’s a cat and mouse game between bookmaker and the sharps that many books vary in how they deal with it, just as the sharps alter based on where they’re betting at.
In the old days before computers became so involved and the rise of off-shore wagering, many book used to just book solely on money and faces, with some known sharp players getting more respect than other causing a more aggressive line move. The opening lines would also vary tremendously with more opinions and options everywhere throughout the Las Vegas strip and downtown.
It's where the term "runner" came from because you truly had to run just to see what the line was at each book, let alone actually making a bet. Hard to imagine these days not knowing what each book had. Those pay phones at the Stardust had to be the biggest money makers for any group of 10 in the world. The fights for the phones to relay the lines we're a treat to watch.
Today's real sharps are definitely going to win more than they lose, so today’s age of technology and the assistance definitely protects the house more than the past which is ultimately all a bookmaker is there for. I think a little mix of each era would be perfect from most bookmaker's perspectives, but technology won't allow it.
Last week a lot of the college moves got there for the sharps and followers alike, in particular Michigan State, Wake Forest, Virginia, Nevada, and UTEP.
Big Line Moves of the Week
New Mexico State (2-3) opened +13.5 at home against Utah State (1-3) and has been bet down to +10. Initial line a result of Utah State’s three quality losses to Utah, Texas A&M, and BYU.
Mississippi State (2-3) opened a home dog of +3 versus the high powered Houston (3-1) offense, but has pushed State to a -1.5 favorite. The combination of State being able to move the ball effectively in losses to LSU and Georgia Tech the last two weeks and a deflating loss by Houston at El Paso as a huge favorite last week contributes to the perception.
Nevada (1-3) opened -8 for their home Friday night game against Louisiana Tech (2-2) and has been bet all the way to -11.5 after the Wolf Pack tuned up their offense against UNLV last week scoring 63 points while having three players rushing for over 170 yards.
Smaller Line Moves of the Week
Duke (2-3) opened +16.5 on the road at N.C. State (3-2) and has been bet to +14.5. This is the second straight week the sharps on picking on the Wolf Pack after driving the Wake Forest line to the favorite side, and they got there.
Mississippi (3-1) opened +6.5 at home to Alabama (5-0) and has settled at +4.5. Ole Miss has only playing at home once this year while struggling offensively on the road. Alabama has the weight of being a top-5 team on the road, a year when their falling more than normal.
UCLA (3-1) opened +5 at home to Oregon (4-1) and has been moved to +3, likely more on the cautionary status of Oregon QB Jeremiah Masoli who missed two practices early in the week and was limited on Wednesday. It’s likely back-up Nate Costa will start, but he’s still an upgrade from what UCLA has in QB Kevin Craft who leads to worst pass attack in the PAC-10. UCLA might also be without one of their top defensive players, UCLA’s strength, in safety Rahim Moore who leads the nation in pick offs with five.
NFL Line Movement
All of the big favorites had movements in their lines from the opening number, with only the Steelers-Lions game remaining as is at -10.5. The Eagles were the only one of those big numbers to go higher settling at -14.5 right now, with the Vikings and Giants games dropping.
All of the numbers around the key number of 3 have moved. Broncos were brought down to +3 at home. The Colts are up to -4 from -3.5, while Panthers are -3.5 flat after being -3 -120.
Through four weeks this season, not one game has landed on 3 while the favored game line was at 2.5, 3, or 3.5 at any juncture. In 2005 and 2006 there were more games that landed on the number than usual causing most books to all use money lines on the number before moving it whole to a flat number.
In the cycle of pro football lines landing on 3, those two years stand alone. Even if getting sided a few times a year when flip-flopping on and off of 3, the math shows the juice on equal sides bet at different numbers makes up for times the game on 3 does land 3.
Beyond the math, the additional volume a book could take by not having a “closed sign” on the game by laying -2.5 flat instead of -3 even, or -3 flat instead of -3 -120 on each side trumps the math and increases win.
The only book in Las Vegas that doesn’t use money, dealing all flat lines, on all football games is the South Point sportsbook operations throughout the city run by veteran bookmaker Bert Osborne.