Las Vegas Money Moves

Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts

Man, do I envy everyone out there from where ever you may be sitting right now. Most of you have had the bulk of your football season played in what could be considered real football weather outside your window. Today in Las Vegas is the first real official day of fall after having a non-stop succession of sunshiny days at 75 to 85 degrees.

It may not seem like that big of a deal, but the mindset one gets from gray skies and cool air is part of what makes football so great. It what inspires kids in Ohio and Pennsylvania to have arguably the best brand of football. Wearing flip-flops in Mid-November only evokes thoughts of the Caribbean and steel drums, not football.

So now that I got my Colorado sweat-shirt on and have run some laps in the cool air, I can get in my three-point stance and feel the football spirit like every else across the country.

Perhaps the Las Vegas weather has also inspired several others in town too because the action has been pretty good all over town. Last week, there were hardly any line movements, especially in the NFL, whereas this week, it’s been the complete opposite.

Since the openers on Monday, only the Saints-Rams game has gone without movement on the side or total. Ten of the 15 NFL games this week have had movement on the side.

In College Football, only nine regular board games have been untouched throughout the week with several of the games seeing movement of a point-and-a-half or more.

One of the more high-profile meaningful games of the week is Utah (8-1) visiting TCU (9-0). Even though the game isn’t on a major network and not many will be able to watch, it is one of only three games this weekend where ranked opponents face each other, and of those contests, TCU is the only one chasing a shot at the BCS Championship.

TCU is on the verge of going where no one has. Their No. 4 ranking in the polls is already higher than anyone has climbed from a non-BCS Conference and they have looked impressive in doing so. They've won seven games by at least 16 points, including the last four by an average of 38.3.

If TCU gets by Utah, it has an easy path to run the table with only two games remaining against the awful teams of Wyoming and the winless New Mexico Lobos.

So far at the Las Vegas betting windows, just about everyone is a believer in the Horned Frogs. The opening line had TCU -17 at the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book and has been bet up to 20. At some books following the move to its high point, they did get some buy back pushing the line back to 19.

In a game with less interest around the country, but very attractive in the betting world is the Nevada-Fresno State game which opened Nevada -6 and is up to -8 now. During its six-game winning streak, Nevada’s games have had a lot of movement on one side or the other and in each case, the move got there.

Someone is pretty dialed with their analysis of this team and is way ahead of the lines-makers with their correct opinion. You hate to jump on the move late, but it’s been pretty black and white thus far and Nevada scores so many that two points from the opener likely isn’t going to make much of a difference.

I’m really looking forward to the Nevada-Boise State game in a few weeks. It should be every bit as entertaining as the Utah-TCU game this week with almost as much at stake for the Broncos. That game is at least scheduled to be on ESPN2.

College Football Moves of the Week:

-- Ohio State bumped from opener of -15 to -16.5 vs. a deflated Iowa squad.
-- Michigan State opened pick at Purdue and has moved to -3.
-- Baylor was getting 26.5 at home against Texas and has dropped to 23.5.
-- Mississippi opened -3.5 to Tennessee and is up to -5.
-- Cal opened +1 at home against Arizona and has been bet up to -3 in one of the larger moves.
-- Utah State was -10.5 and now -12.5 against San Jose State.
-- Oregon State opened -10.5 at home against Washington and is up to -13.
-- San Diego State was laying only -4.5 to Wyoming but has been bumped to -7.
-- Mid Tenn State opened -10.5 and is now -13 against Lafayette.

The feature game of the week in the NFL, Patriots-Colts, hasn’t attracted too much action one way or another but has been the cornerstone of just about every parlay written thus far with split opinions.

After starting out his career 0-7 against the Patriots, Peyton Manning has done pretty well since then going 4-1 including an AFC Championship win that sent him to the Super Bowl. His only loss in that span was a close game won by the Super-Patriots of 2007 during an undefeated regular season.

The line has been steady at -2.5 to -3 (Even) at just about every book. Over at the South Point where they only use flat numbers, they haven’t had any takers at -2.5 flat, but that could change late Saturday night or Sunday morning when the next wave of moves are sure to occur.

The common thread between most of the moves this week is that home team is getting the early action. Only two moves of the week went with the road team. One was the Cowboys, and that was more likely only because of the key number of -2.5. Cowboys are currently -3 at Green Bay.

The other road team had a key number, but no one was biting thinking the better value was with the dog. The Eagles were getting 2½-points at San Diego and it’s been dropped to +1.5.

Other Pro Football Moves:

-- Jets from -6.5 to -7 at home against the Jaguars.
-- Redskins +4.5 to +3.5 at home against the struggling Broncos.
-- Steelers from -6.5 to -7 at home against the surging Bengals.
-- Titans -6 to -6.5 at home against the Bills.
-- Dolphins from -9 to -10 at home against Tampa Bay.
-- Raiders -1 to -2 at home against Kansas City.