Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
The biggest pro football game in Week 11 is the battle for the AFC West lead between the San Diego Chargers (6-3) and Denver Broncos (6-3). However, in Las Vegas, the game is “Off the Board” at nearly every Sports Book with the exception of Station Casinos books, where they have posted the Chargers in a circle as three-point road favorites.
Quarterback Kyle Orton hurt his left ankle last week at Washington with the team winning and was unable to practice Wednesday, but the team is at least not ruling him out.
"He's feeling better, we're going to see if he can do much today," Broncos Head Coach Josh McDaniels told the Denver Post just before the team took the field for Thursday’s practice. "Then (he'll) continue on with his rehab schedule, certainly not making any determination based on where he is now."
"But we'd love for him to be out there as soon as he can possibly be out there and we're hopeful he's going to play."
When Orton came out of the game in Washington, the fate of his team and Bronco bettors were in the hands of Chris Simms who looked like a deer in head lights, getting sacked three times and completing only 3-of-13 attempts for 13 yards with an interception. Those numbers were for an entire half of play and led directly to the 27-17 loss.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants are prepared with a line recommendation for either starter.
“I have the Chargers -2.5 with Orton playing and -4 with Simms in,” said LVSC odds maker Sean Van Patten. “Simms hasn’t been in any real game situations since 2006, he’s rusty and he showed it last week.”
“The Broncos and Chargers are going in two different directions right now. The Chargers seem to have put it all together on both sides of the ball since they last met on Monday Night Football in Week 6, while Broncos are really struggling just to put points on the board since that meeting.”
The numbers support Van Patten’s logic. The Chargers have won four in a row since losing to the Broncos while the Broncos haven’t won, losing three straight.
To be fair to the Broncos, they did come off a bye losing all momentum gained from the quick 6-0 start. Then they traveled to the East Coast for a game at Baltimore, came home battered to play an equally bruising Steelers squad on a Monday, and then on a short week traveled back East to play Washington. Orton seemed to have righted the ship with big plays at Washington to start the game and then the injury came.
Chris Simms didn’t even get the chance to play a full preseason this year, only getting action in the first two, despite Orton being injured for the final two. Should Simms be forced to start this week, look for the number to run past the recommendation of -4, past the dead number of 5, onward to the -6 range. Chances are because the game will be bet with circled limits that the line will move more frequently than usual full limit games.
Third-string rookie quarterback Tom Brandstater may give Denver a better chance than Simms does. Heck, Phil Simms may give them a better chance. If you like the Chargers on Sunday, you should get on the wagon early when the announcement is made which could come on game day.
In other NFL games that have had lines up since Monday, there have been some takers of underdogs after Week 10 saw the pups go 9-6 against the spread, which included six outright winners.
The Browns have found some loves at +3.5 despite the poor performance at Baltimore where Eric Mangenius looked to keep the score low by not allowing his newly named QB Brady Quinn to throw farther than 15 yards until it was Hail Mary time. However, the Browns bet makes more sense when you see the Lions were laying -3.5. Hard to believe Detroit could be favored over anyone, even the Browns.
The Eagles opened -3 (Even) at Chicago for the Sunday night game and now they are -3 (-120), likely on the basis of Jay Cutler who just loves playing on centre court with all his colleagues watching. In three night games, Cutler has thrown three TD passes and 11 interceptions while only getting 35 points on the board for the Bears.
In one of the more interesting matchups of the week, the Texans have been bet from an opener of -4 to -5 for the Monday night game with the Titans. When they met in Week 2, some can say that defeat sent the Titans on their tail spin that saw them lose four more until finally winning with Vince Young behind center. Since Young has come aboard, Tennessee hasn’t lost and the entire team morale has shifted them closer to looking like the team from 2008.
Other games have seen lines flip-flopped with takers on each side after the moves. The Giants found takers laying -6, but when it went to the key number of 7, Falcons money came in despite running back Michael Turner possibly not playing.
The Cardinals were bet up -9 at St. Louis, bet then quickly bet back to the opener of -8.5. Same thing with Patriots angry rematch with the Jets who opened -10.5, Jets money came in, but quickly bet back to -10.5.
College Football Moves
A few games stand out this week because of the multiple action on each side. Two of the bigger groups in Las Vegas have been betting against each other all week. One group takes or lays a number, and then the other group takes the other side. This has happened with quite a few games this week with some of them doubling up on the game after the moves.
-- South Florida opened -12.5 and has been bumped back and forth against Louisville to where it sits now at -11.5.
-- Missouri opened -12.5 to Iowa State, bet up to -15, then bet down to -14, and currently sits at -15.5.
-- Tennessee opened -18 against Vanderbilt, dropped to -16 and then bet up to -17.
-- Georgia opened -8.5 vs. Kentucky, bet to -10, down to -9, and back up to -9.5.
-- TCU opened -31 at Wyoming, bet up to -32, down to -29.5, and back up to -30.5.
-- Arkansas opened -11.5 to Miss State, down to -10.5, and then back up to -11.5.
-- Oregon State opened -31, bet down to -29.5, and then bet back up to -31.
-- Nevada opened -31 at New Mexico State, up to -32, and then dog money to -29.5.
That’s a lot of games to see that type of movement with two differing opinions. If it weren’t for a friend at a Sports Book telling me about who and when the type of action was, I would be skeptical of one of the groups attempting to manipulate the numbers with their action.
All of those games peak around a solid number, but not large enough to be realistically be looking for your middle play. In instances I’ve seen in the past, in order for a particular group to get all the action they want at particular number, they’ll send a new face in to bet the other side after a series of moves and push the number back so they can get more on their desired side. If they are correct and their side wins by well over the margin, they just lose the juice on one of the dummy bets, but the big bonus is if one of the games pushes or lands in the middle and they keep all the cash.
Those kinds of moves have a major effect on the city because some places move on air when bigger books make their moves in an attempt to stay ahead of the curve for fear of getting peppered by these sharp groups. When the air moves happen, the group doesn’t even have to waste the dummy money to get their number.
The one-way moves of the week came on East Carolina from -10 to -12.5 against UAB, Utah from -17.5 to -20 against San Diego State, Clemson from -19.5 to -21, Central Florida -19 to -21.5, and of course a MAC game.
What would a college football week be without a move on a MAC game? Kent State action came hard at +13 against Temple and now sits at +10.