Las Vegas Money Moves
By Micah Roberts
I was sitting in the Sam’s Town Sports Book the other night after a fine Mexican dinner at Willy and Jose’s and asked a few fellows who they thought may be the plays in the four NFL divisional playoff games this weekend and got an answer that was pretty one sided.
Joe, who hails originally from Chicago said, “The Chargers are going whoop that ass.”
Johnny from Philadelphia said the Saints, “Got a mission to accomplish and it don’t matter who is in their way.”
Not that it makes any difference where I was, but I’ll preface by saying I was in the den at Sam’s Town which is not exactly the same clientele as the Bellagio or Wynn Resorts, but it was the salt of the Vegas earth I was looking for.
I wanted to hear some opinions and thoughts from the everyday Joe’s on how this weekend's games were going to go. Even though the Sam’s Town Sports Book is much nicer in appearance in relation to the cast of clientele, it was the closest thing I could find to a group of audience that resembled the old Stardust where I could find a thousand reasons on each side of a big game to take each.
Joe from Chicago, also told me about a game he could be happy with on each side, “I’ll tell you what, I don’t know who to take between the Cowboys and Vikings. Brett Favre at home against what looks to be the best team in football right now. I could flip a coin on that game and be happy with either side.”
The dilemma on the Viking game seems to be a cautious tale around the Las Vegas Sports Books as well. The Vikings opened up a short 2.5-point home favorite but has been slightly bet up to 3 (EVEN) at the Las Vegas Hilton SuperBook.
Other than the Chargers early line movement on Sunday Night and Monday, not many of the games have moved much, at least compared to last week where we saw the Packers game run six-points in some places.
“You won’t see the type of movement we saw last week in games,” says Lucky’s Sports Book Director Jimmy Vaccaro, “We have a few games on solid numbers where we aren’t seeing much sharp action, other than early with the Jets, and I believe the action coming through will be evenly matched throughout the week.”
The Chargers originally opened a 9-point favorite but has been bet to minus-7 by some of the Sharp money. Other than the small Vikings move, that has been it for the week other than over money coming in on the Cardinals game -- go figure -- and a pretty large move on the Vikings under going from the opener of 48 to 45.5.
“I think you could shake up the decisions in a jar and be happy with either side of any of the four games this weekend, “ said Vaccaro.
That’s the way the public has been betting thus far and none of the wise guys have shown their hand throughout the way. It’s likely their money will come game day, but from the sheer masses of public money that has come in it looks like there will be enough money to off-set any transaction made by a mere $20,000 wager.
The Books will shade a number just based on the face that bets it and that may be a good sign, but playoff football has shown over the years to be more about what the public does than what the Sharps think. The Sharps like to take the value in the numbers, but are much skewed by the byes and how the current winning team is coming off their big Wild Card weekend win.
In regards to the Cowboys who are less the field goal underdog based on the money, their odds look pretty good right based on history according to the Gold Sheets Bruce Marshall. 135 of the Divsional playoff games since 1975 had landed at “3”’ or less 33 times. Of all those games that were 1 to 3-point favorites, the Favorites have gone an unimpressive 7-13-1.
The power ratings suggest that Vikings might be a one-point dog on a neutral field because of the supposed advantage that the Vikings have at the Metrodome which usually gives them at least 3.5-points as a home team.
Despite seeing only eight teams remaining, there still could be some value betting on the money line for certain teams just because of the risk that’s still out there on futures to win the conference or Super Bowl.
“We do well with just about every team on futures this year except the Saints,” says M Resort’s Director or Race and Sports Mike Colbert.
Despite the heavy overlay on futures, Colbert is riding it out this weekend.
“It’s a little too early to be hedging against what we have at this stage. I think the Saints have a valiant opponent in the Cardinals and we have the best line in the world with the saints -6.5 (-120), so if there is Cardinals money to balance out anything we should see it, but we haven’t thus far.”
The M Resort is also offering the Colts as a 6-point favorite which is the cheapest in Las Vegas.
“I think the Ravens have a good shot in this game,” says Colbert.
The Sharps haven’t really spoken of yet and the small money is still mulling out their opinions. But, by game day, you can bet the public will be on Indianapolis, Minnesota, New Orleans, and the Chargers. What a surprise, the four favorites: that’s odd!