Las Vegas NFL Notes
By Micah Roberts
What a difference a year makes. During Week 7 of the NFL last season, it was the worst day in Las Vegas sportsbook history with estimated losses of up to $8 million across the state. The 2010 version of Week 7 came with much better results for the house as sports books chalked up another win taking their season mark against the players to 7-0, or some small cases, 6-1.
It’s a shame there isn’t a weekly line on siding with the player or the house like in baccarat, because the house winning is about the only sure thing going in NFL trends right now.
Not far behind the house edge of winning consistently has been the barking dogs. The underdogs went 8-5 for the week confusing the players even more than they already were coming in. Of the eight dogs, five of them won outright including this seasons biggest upset thus far with the 13-point favorite Saints losing at home to the Browns, 30-17.
The Denver Broncos were 8 ½-point home favorites over the Raiders and closed -7 as the sharpest group in town flooded the market with Raiders money. The Sharps are always to be respected, but how about that call. The Raiders were up 21-0 within the first few minutes of the game and buried the Broncos, 59-14. For most sportsbooks, they still won on the game despite losing to the Sharp money because of all the small money siding with Denver.
The biggest public games of the day were the Chiefs, Ravens, Broncos, Saints and Falcons who combined to go 2-3. Those losses are the links that killed most of the major parlay liability throughout the day. The Ravens, favored by 13, were the most one-sided bet team of the day and their 37-34 overtime win against the Bills was a killer for not only those playing parlays, but also for teaser bettors.
So now what do you do with a team like the Bills? They’re the worst team in football, but they’ve covered and scored 30 or more points against two of the best teams in football, the Patriots and Ravens. The Ravens get applauded quite frequently for how good their defense is, but allowing Ryan Fitzpatrick to throw for 374 yards with four touchdown passes puts their defense in an entirely new category. The Bills are still winless at 0-6, but are now 2-4 against the spread.
The Bills remain the only team without a win after the Panthers beat the 49ers, 23-20. The 49ers allowed 10 points in the final 2:36 of that game for another blundering loss, yet head coach Mike Singletary still says with a straight face that the 49ers will make the playoffs.
Our good relationship with England could be in trouble with the garbage the NFL is sending over there this week. The schedule makers probably thought this would be a good match, but the 49ers and Broncos have a combined record of 3-11. That would be like England sending over Wolverhampton and Blackburn to the USA for a goodwill soccer match.
The rest of the Week 8 schedule looks to be just as tough as the first seven weeks with one double-digit favorite and only one other game favored by more than a touchdown. One of the underdogs I’ll paying close attention to this week is the Texans traveling to Indianapolis where Peyton Manning will be without his favorite outlet in Dallas Clark. Austin Collie and Joseph Addai all figure to miss as well leaving Manning without some of his best weapons. He’s very good, but he can’t do it alone. Getting 5 ½-points in this spot looks pretty good.