Las Vegas Playoff Moves
By Micah Roberts
The Sports Books in Las Vegas will look to turn the tide on Saturday and Sunday with the NFL Wild Card weekend. Before I get into where and why the Sports Books are at the numbers they are now, we need to go back to Sunday night and Monday morning when most of Vegas put the lines up.
Wild Card weekend is the major exception to setting NFL playoff lines that has to have past history taken into serious consideration. Underdogs rule in this round, especially games where the favored number is set from 1 to 3 points.
As documented by Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet, Underdogs getting 1 to 3-points in the Wild Card round have gone 24-16-2 since 1978. As it turned out, two of the four games would be in that area with the other two very close.
The strategies and lines that went out on Sunday and Monday were vastly different throughout the city with a wide array of numbers for the shoppers. When I saw all the differing numbers, it reminded me of the old Vegas days before off-shore wagering when no one moved on air and there was nothing called a market number.
There were lots opinions out there and you could see the respect for the number “3”. The book I like to reference the most when following lines is the Las Vegas Hilton Super Book because their shades on games generally seem to be more correct than most and they rarely use a market number. Jay Kornegay, Ed Salmons, and Jeff Sherman lead the staff of bookmakers at the Hilton and are the sharpest group in town.
Many of the Las Vegas Books opened the Bengals game 3-flat. Las Vegas Sports Consultants recommended the Bengals -4. The boys at the Hilton anticipated where the line was going to be, while respecting the number “3” and tested the waters with Bengals -3 (+105) which basically baits any sharp out there, “If you think the Bengals have value at 3 and you think the game will go to 3.5 or higher, come and get some plus money laying it.“
Well, obviously there wasn’t any sharp money to be found with the Bengals and soon the Hilton went to Bengals -3 (+110) after getting Jets money at +3 (-125) and then eventually down to -2.5-flat. That one move showed what people were willing to lay to get that 3-point value with the Dog in this round.
During the entire regular season, 15.2% of all NFL games landed “3“. Over the last five seasons, “3” has landed at a rate of 14.7% with 2006 coming at a robust 17.2% of the time.
Other Books went from their 3-flat Bengals number to 2.5 (-120) after taking bets on the Jets. The Hilton, through this whole process was able to generate an extra 15% and 20% juice on their wagers taken just by being a little creative and thinking outside the box.
The Bengals game is currently being booked across the board at 2.5-flat, but the Hilton got the better of it. Just about every Vegas Book doesn’t allow buys on or off three, so the bettors that took the points laying the high Hilton juice thought they had value laying up to an additional .20 cents to get to the all important number “3”.
The same process occurred in similar fashion with Cardinals, except that game ran like Forrest Gump. The Hilton opened that game Cardinals -3 (+110) and they quickly moved to 2.5-flat. From there it ran all the way to Cards -1.
Thursday at the Coast Resorts Books, they moved the Packers to a 1-point favorite in a game they opened Cardinals -2.
“A 3-point move isn’t that bad when not crossing “3”, said Scucci, right now the Packers are the trendy pick among most of the public and analysts. This will be our biggest game of the weekend not just because of the early action, but generally the last game on the board during a playoff weekend always generates the most action.”
“Even though we have moved the lines the other way, the public is taking three of the four favorites along with the Packers,” said Hilton Race and Sports Executive Director Jay Kornegay.
The Patriots had the biggest disparity from what was sent by LVSC and what was opened by the Books. LVSC sent out the Patriots a 6.5-point favorite while many opened them much lower, including the Hilton which started at 3.5 where it has stayed all week
The Cowboys-Eagles line has been steady all week with the Cowboys as 4-point favorites just about everywhere with the Hilton the low line at 3.5. This game features all kinds of stories beginning with DeSean Jackson’s Twitters saying something to the effect the Eagles are going to string up the Cowboys, to which the Cowboys -- who are 2-0 this season vs. the Eagles -- have posted it on their board for all to see.
The Cowboys on the other hand have the dilemma of dealing with their past failures, in particular Tony Romo and Wade Phillips. Neither have won a playoff game in their career. What will happen when, or if, Romo throws his first interception. He always seems to take it hard and they come in bunches. Should he struggle early in the game with all the mounting pressure, how will he react? On a positive note, we do know Romo DID NOT take a vacation prior to this playoff game. But the bad news is that he is still holding kicks.
Phillips has a lot to juggle himself. Not only is his job on the line -- win or you’re out -- but he also has to sit through Friday, January 8, 2010, the 10 year anniversary of the Music City Miracle where his Bills lost in the last second to the Titans where he unveiled one of his many dumb-founded looks.
Speaking of January 8, it’s Elvis’ 75th birthday. Not only will his day be celebrated at Graceland, but the NBA teams in Memphis and New Orleans will have special Elvis nights honoring his birthday with Elvis look-alikes everywhere.
Las Vegas is the place where his career was reborn and there is no better place to get a feel for that era than at the Las Vegas Hilton, formerly the International where he played to sold out shows every time out during the early 70’s.
RIP EP, TCB!