Ive noticed some line movements today that seem odd ive been around football betting for 20+ years and sometimes i wonder if the books lay off money on other games to even out there odds? not so much that smarts are betting or even public but bookies placing off money played on other games being moved to another...now that ive rambled anyone have any thoughts?
Your not imagining things. This happens everyday and depending on the book several times per day.
I should also point out that it's far from false line movement, it's very real.
I have talked about this quite a bit over the last couple of weeks. Online sportsbooks lay off, bet into, hedge and take stands on games and all of that factors into line movement. If line movement was a pie only a few slices would represent public action.
What book was it ?
I bet at the Cannery East, becuase it is close, but they are a point higher than other casinos on a lot of games. I use it against them if I like a dog. Today when I went, some of their BB lines were 2.5 points higher, but they only have 2 casinos here, so they can get one sided action and have to move their lines, compared to Stations, or Coast casinos, who have properties all over Vegas that just lay off to each other. It's a very good subject, and one that bettors should be aware of. I can shop for lines here, it's a pain in the ass, but when you have numbers setting on key numbers, that half point will make you or break you on at least one game a week if not more, depending on how many games you play. I know that generally when a number comes out, only a few will get the best number, after that everyone else will be getting the worst of a line. It doesn't mean that it won't cover, but over a period of time, it will grind you down, so that the house has the profit. It is very hard for one person to always get the best line every day, I don't care if you wake up at three am, getting the best number is hard to do. There are so many intangibles that work against you, weather, public, game time decisions, bettors with alot of cash that don't know what the hell they are doing. I remember when I first moved to Vegas, I am standing in line to bet the Rams, and the person ahead of me bets $2000.00 against the Rams. I am thinking, Wow! he must know something. I had spent 10 hours breaking down that game, as was convinced the Rams were the play. What do I do, I changed my bet, which was only $220.00 and went with what I thought was something I didn't see. The Rams won. The Motto: more money doesn't necessarly make you smarter. That happened 14 years ago, and I still remember it like it was yesterday. After thinking the whole episode through, I was going, who besides me spends 8 hours a day, 7 days a week, looking at this stuff. Not too many. So if you put in the time to cap your game, stick with it. And as for the moving of numbers, you have to shop around or pass the game. I guess the tramadol kicked in....lol
...its funny to see the difference in lines at each!! THE HOOK has i would guess cost me around 100 dimes over my sports investment hobby...I waited all week for the line to hit 2.5 in the wake forest game... then played -2 -120...
Vegas you sound as if you have been around a while...im gonna throw you an old play ive made a ton of money for my wife using...
Its simple yet effective...
Play on loser of Monday night vs spread and play against the winner of monday night vs the spread every week...
Ive added the sunday night games to my list...there is always Line Value in this play...
thanks for your input...
Ive become addicted to watching line movements i tend to bet what my handicapping tells me regardless of the line movements...but having some access to information that allows me to really know were the money is to see movements in opposite direction at multiple books today reminded me of this going on...and also reminded me to trust my own handicapping and not the movement of the line...overall ive made more money betting with the "House" than against it especially in the NFL aka... National Fixed League LOL... good luck im hoping for 3 of 4 today college football....if my reads are true ive bet against the movement in each
Thanks, I actually like a little movement in a line on some plays, but too much movement is not always a good thing. I use power ratings to give me a cut off point when the line does move. Two examples tonight were on the Houston game that opened at 7 and went to 8.5, my cutoff was 8,they won by 8. So betting the same team would have been a loss. Another was Wyoming, opened at 16.5, went to 19.5, but my cutoff was 20, and that is what the won by. It is the only way that I have found to read a line movement. If a line is going down, I get conerned if it is moving away from my rating, making the play look better. A few games tonight did that. Virginia with a PR of 6 was 4.5 and dropped to 3.5..they lost, Eastern Michigan opened at 2.5 and went down to 1.5 with a PR of 6. They lost. It doesn't happen every time, but it does often enough to give you some monster weeks during the season. Good Luck this week.