I don't think I have seen such quick adjustments to lines in opening week. There are a few games going up almost daily. The Steelers opened at 4.5 and stayed at 5 for a few weeks. The line moved to 5.5 two days ago and is now 6 at stations.
The Chargers are another one that opened with poor value and keeps getting bet up. This Merriman deal did distract the team some. Also it was after this game last year that Kiffin was fired after the Raiders lost by 10. The Chargers are known for starting poorly under Turner with a 3-5 SU and ATS mark over the last two years in the first 4 games. This is like quadruple division revenge for the Raiders. As bad as the Raiders are, they are getting good value at home.
The Ravens line was up to -12.5 yesterday. With Cassel questionable, a fired offensive coordinator with a week before the season starts, and new head coach, there are alot of questions. The line moved over two key numbers, 10, and 11.
The Dallas move from -3.5 to -5 seems to make sense, with a new head coach that has no experience, and they also dumped their OC with a week left.
The Saints moved to -13. They are another team that has started off poorly the last two years. They are 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS over the last two years in the first 4 games of the season. Head coach Payton says he will play his suspended DE's in the first game if he does not here from the NFL. Couple that with Detroit starting a rookie QB, and a new head coach.
The Bengals actually opened at +3 before the preseason, and are now at -3 after poor play by Denver. New head coach McDaniels, and Orton at QB has not inspired any improvement from last years squad. Add the fact that WR Marshall was suspended until Sept. 5th, and wants to be traded. The Bengals started off 0-8 SU last year, and Palmer has an ankle problem, but should be ready to start.
I took Houston -4 as soon as Sanchez was named the starter for the Jets, it's up to 5 and think this number will keep going up.
I think the bettors are coming in waves. You have the early sharps betting, then you have the early squares. Now there are squares who think they are early. The rest will bet on Sunday, but if the lines get too crazy, the sharps will come back in and middle their bets.
One thing I wanted to say was that this is the most new head coaches in the league since 2006. If anyone remembers what happened in the first week of 2006, there were 10 underdogs that covered, and only 6 favorites.
Blade, good luck on Houston-4. Even though both Atl and Bal won last year with the new head coach and QB in the first week. The difference is they started at home. Both teams lost their first game on the road. Things will be alot faster for Sanchez this week and he won't be playing against a 3rd string.
Blade, good luck on Houston-4. Even though both Atl and Bal won last year with the new head coach and QB in the first week. The difference is they started at home. Both teams lost their first game on the road. Things will be alot faster for Sanchez this week and he won't be playing against a 3rd string.
The main reason I bet it was because he will be going on the road,Houston has been a very good home team over the years going 10-5-1 ATS in their last 16 home games.
They will be improved. Their offense went from 14th to 3rd last year, so they should be able to put points on the board. They are 6-3 as a home favorite over the last two years. I wonder whats happening to those owners in the NFL. I have never seen 3 offensive coordinators fired a week before the season, and last year 3 coaches dismissed halfway into the season. Buffalo is starting two rookies on the offensive line and changing their offense. Their running back is suspended for 4 games. They will be lucky to put 7 points on the board against New England.
Tampa Bay and Kansas City are almost as bad with a ?QB, new head coaches, and changing their offenses with a week to spare...go figure?
You know how I like totals... My gut feels like this Jets- Texans matchup will go over 44.
Rookie QB will throw some picks, giving up points, and be forced to try to air it out in the second half to catch up. It also seems like defensive-minded coaches do well on offense their first couple years.
Line Moves
By Judd Hall
If there is one advantage that bettors have about the first week of NFL action is that they get the lines extremely early. Practically every betting shop out there had lines up and running for the gambling public back in the middle of June.
As great as it is to have early lines to feast upon, most of the public treat those lines like they do holiday shopping. In other words, some bettors are contest with perfect the American art of procrastination.
For those people that wanted to wait to make a wager, you’ll see a vastly different board than they first saw. Out of this week’s 16 tilts, only four of them have the exact same line that was released during the summer.
One of those games that have stayed the same is the Falcons being listed as four-point home favorites against Miami. While the spread isn’t going anywhere anytime soon, the total has bumped up to 43 ½ from the original point of 42 ½.
VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Marc Lawrence believes that the recent work of the Dirty Birds is coming into play with that line. “I don't think a one-point move is all that significant on an NFL total but my best guess would be everyone anticipates Atlanta's offense to be improved this season with TE Tony Gonzalez in the lineup. That and the fact that the Falcons scored 20 or more points in each of its first three preseason games before resting the regulars in Game Four.”
While Lawrence believes that the Falcons will hit fly ‘over’ that number, VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Tom Freese is focusing on what Miami does as the deciding factor. “The Dolphins were successful thanks to the wildcat offense.” Freese continues, “Anytime you have a team that likes to run the ball, you have to look at the ‘under’ because that clock is always moving and lends itself for lower scores.”
NBC’s showcase game between the Packers and Bears is very similar to what we’re seeing at the Georgia Dome. Green Bay was installed as a three-point home “chalk” with a total of 43 ½ back in the middle of June. Now the Pack is 3 ½-point faves with the total skyrocketing to 46 ½.
Lawrence’s thinking truly comes into play here as Green Bay has enjoyed Aaron Rodgers’s play during the preseason. Rodgers completed 70.7 percent of his passes for 465 yards and six touchdowns with no picks during the 2009 exhibition campaign. That shows the improvement he had at the end of last year (11 TD, 4 INT in last six games of ’08) is continuing well into this season.
The Bears are also expected to show a great deal of improvement offensively thanks to bringing Jay Cutler in to run things under center. With apologies to Devin Hester, Earl Bennett and company, Chicago just doesn’t have the best group of targets for Cutler. But they have just enough talent to be dangerous.
Something else to keep your eye on for this opening weekend is the contests with double-digit favorites.
New England shouldn’t be a big surprise after being listed as an 11-point home favorite against the Bills. They were posted as a 10-point “chalk” back when the line first came out during the summer.
The Saints are among the big boys this week as 13-point home favorites against Detroit. Not a shocker when you consider the strength of their offense, anchored by Drew Brees. And we can’t forget about the Lions going winless in 2008.
The strangest double-digit line of this week has to be the Ravens coming in as 13-point home favorites against Kansas City. What makes this game stand out is the fact that Baltimore was initially posted as an eight-point home “chalk.” The line steadily grew to 10 on Sept. 6. Then the Ravens were catapulted to 13 the very next day.
I can understand a lot of people being down on the Chiefs this year with all they don’t have to work with in 2009. And the uncertainty of having Matt Cassel under center with a suspect left knee has no doubt helped the public drop its mortgage on Baltimore.
Freese was surprised to see this type of movement on a line. “Numbers are always going to move a point or two over a given amount of time, but this was very unusual to see in the NFL.” He continues, “You’re more apt to find the total make a jump like this in a short amount of time. This movement practically tells you to avoid it at all costs.” I have to agree.
VegasInsider.com
I was at the sportsbook at Caesar's yesterday and last night, and then at the Flamingo today. I was talking to about 30 people about when they were planning to make their wagers, and surprisingly over half of them plan to wait until Sunday so they can see which way the lines move. Now most of these people were just visiting Vegas, but as you can see, there is alot of late money going to go on over valued lines. The other half said they would wager today and tomorrow. There was not one person who had shopped for lines early, or had wagers down already. This is what we get in Vegas. I do know some locals here who are already down and saved 2 to 3 points off the current numbers. And that line move they are waiting for will go to the wrong side this week. I expect some late action from sharps, as there is some nice opportunities for middles this week.
Did you tell them to visit TheSpread.com?
I need to get you a t-shirt if you are gonna be hanging around sportsbooks
🙂
I was at the sportsbook at Caesar's yesterday and last night, and then at the Flamingo today. I was talking to about 30 people about when they were planning to make their wagers, and surprisingly over half of them plan to wait until Sunday so they can see which way the lines move. Now most of these people were just visiting Vegas, but as you can see, there is alot of late money going to go on over valued lines. The other half said they would wager today and tomorrow. There was not one person who had shopped for lines early, or had wagers down already. This is what we get in Vegas. I do know some locals here who are already down and saved 2 to 3 points off the current numbers. And that line move they are waiting for will go to the wrong side this week. I expect some late action from sharps, as there is some nice opportunities for middles this week.
You have to realize that 90% of the people who bet, have no idea what they are doing.
If you don't know why lines move in the first place you are going to do whatever your buddy suggests you should do.
Very, very few people ever take the time to understand betting which is something I never understood since they will do it for the rest of their lives probably.
Most are content to scrape out a win here and a win there and as long as they didn't lose their house or their wife at the end of the season they will be back again next year with really no change in their approach.
All the info in the world isn't valuable at all if you don't know how to use it.
Most people handicap games off ESPN unfortunately.
I was at the sportsbook at Caesar's yesterday and last night, and then at the Flamingo today. I was talking to about 30 people about when they were planning to make their wagers, and surprisingly over half of them plan to wait until Sunday so they can see which way the lines move. Now most of these people were just visiting Vegas, but as you can see, there is alot of late money going to go on over valued lines. The other half said they would wager today and tomorrow. There was not one person who had shopped for lines early, or had wagers down already. This is what we get in Vegas. I do know some locals here who are already down and saved 2 to 3 points off the current numbers. And that line move they are waiting for will go to the wrong side this week. I expect some late action from sharps, as there is some nice opportunities for middles this week.
I don't miss working Football weekends one bit. ;D