LIne Moves for NFL

1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons

These NFC South rivals are trending in opposite directions. After dropping their first two games to start the season, the Panthers (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) have rebounded to win two straight, most recently beating the Cardinals 31-21 at 3-point dogs. Meanwhile, the Falcons (0-4 SU, 1-3 ATS) have been a disaster this season. Atlanta is one of only four winless teams this season, along with the 0-4 Jets, Texans and Giants. The Falcons are coming off a 30-16 loss to the Packers as 5-point dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Spread bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen this line fall from Falcons -3.5 to -2.5. In a vacuum, a line shouldn't move at all if the tickets are even. So we know this drop was caused my smart money on the Panthers. Carolina has value as a road divisional dog with a line move. The Panthers also enjoy a rest advantage as the Falcons are coming off a Monday Night game. Carolina is -3 in point differential this season and the Falcons are -32.

1 p.m. ET: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

This AFC South matchup features two bottom feeder teams looking to turn their seasons around. The Jaguars (1-3 SU, 2-2 ATS) shocked the Colts in Week 1 but have since fallen on hard times and dropped three straight games since. Most recently, Jacksonville fell to the Bengals 33-25 as 1-point dogs. It's been an even worse season for the Texans (0-4 SU, 0-4 ATS), who remain winless and just fired longtime Head Coach Bill O'Brien. This line opened with Houston listed as a 6.5-point home favorite. A slight majority of bets are backing the Texans, expected a bump following the coaching change. However, we've seen the Texans fall from -6.5 to -5.5, signaling wiseguy money grabbing the points with the Jags. Jacksonville has value as a road divisional dog. Historically, divisional dogs getting around a touchdown have been a profitable bet as the built in familiarity levels the playing field and benefits the team getting points. The Jags are -22 in point differential. Houston is -46. Bill Vinovich is the head official. Historically, he has favored road teams (57.4% ATS).

4:25 p.m. ET: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys

This NFC East grudge match features two teams desperate for a win. The Giants (0-4 SU, 2-2 ATS) have yet to post a victory this season, although they kept it close last week in a 17-9 loss to the Rams, covering as 13.5-point dogs. Meanwhile, after their miracle comeback win against Atlanta, the Cowboys (1-3 SU, 0-4 ATS) have dropped two straight, most recently falling to the Browns 49-38 as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 9.5-point favorite. The public sees a "get right" spot for Dallas against a bad Giants team. However, despite a slight majority of bets laying the points, we've seen this line fall to 8.5. This signals liability on the G-Men getting big points. New York has value as a contrarian road divisional dog with a line move. Also, Craig Wrolstad is the lead official. He has historically favored road teams (56.5% ATS). The Giants are -49 in point differential. The Cowboys are -20.

More NFL Line Moves

Raiders + 12 to + 11.5 at Chiefs

Washington + 9.5 to + 7 vs Rams

Jets + 8 to + 7 vs Cardinals

Eagles-Steelers Under 45 to 43.5

Bengals + 13 to + 12 at Ravens

Dolphins + 9 to + 7.5 at 49ers