Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl News and Notes 12/26

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl Preview
By: Matt Zemek

You might want to knock the quality of this matchup. You might want to question the existence of 35 bowls, which produce downscale events that don’t replicate the excitement of the bowls of yesteryear, when college football’s postseason was smaller but more meaningful. However, with all of that having been said, don’t knock the teams who will move on over to Motown for this piece of pizza-flavored pigskin.

The Florida International Golden Panthers didn’t even join the Sun Belt Conference until 2005. Not even a decade old as a program, their mere existence was and is a minor miracle. No history, no tradition, and a minimal degree of infrastructural development gave the Golden Panthers a harsh situation bereft of any appreciable advantages. Now they’re about to compete in their first bowl game of all time, the 2010 Little Caesars Bowl at Ford Field in Detroit. FIU’s opponent will be the Toledo Rockets, a team that won’t have to travel nearly as far as the Panthers will; however, the journey will be worth it for both clubs, even though their mileage may indeed vary.

The Golden Panthers didn’t achieve a single thing out of their conference this year, going 0-4 in the process, but they produced a dandy 6-2 record in the Sun Belt to win the league thanks to a head-to-head triumph over the Troy Trojans, the defending league champions. Coach Mario Cristobal has fashioned a very meaningful and poignant story in Miami, and the young men he had to thank for his success are quarterback Wesley Carroll, a very sound field general who displayed noticeably constant prudence in the pocket for Florida International. The Golden Panthers’ foremost playmaker is T.Y. Hilton, a flanker who posted over 230 all-purpose yards in the team’s season-making win over Troy. FIU can do special things in the open field and accordingly apply pressure to opposing defenses.

The Rockets, for their part, enjoyed a very satisfying and gratifying autumnal run under Coach Tim Beckman. They weren’t expected to make much noise in the Mid-American Conference, but they finished a solid second in the MAC West, losing out to eventual division champion Northern Illinois, a team that thoroughly cleaned up in the MAC regular season (thought it lost the league title game to Miami of Ohio). Toledo reaped the benefits of a hard-nosed defense to win at Ohio early in the season, and the Rockets took care of business against the rest of the MAC, losing only to NIU in conference play. The Rockets lost to quality teams in 2010 – Arizona and especially Boise State. The one exception came in a baffling 20-15 slip-on-the-banana-peel moment against woeful Wyoming. For the most part, though, the Rockets used close games to acquire both wisdom and composure that came in handy against the beatable teams on their slate. That’s why they’re 8-4 and popping down some pizza in the Little Caesars Bowl.

This is a very unpredictable game, but FIU quarterback Wesley Carroll used to play at Mississippi State in the SEC. The speed of this game will not intimidate him and he’ll be able to adjust to the looks and defensive personnel groupings Toledo coordinator Mike Ward shows him. If Carroll does flourish, Florida International will have a very good chance of winning what amounts to a road game in Michigan against a school based in Ohio.

STAT PACK:

Florida International:

Passing Yards Per Game: 213.2 (National ranking out of 120 FBS teams: 68)

Rushing Yards Per Game: 189.2 (Ranking: 28)

Points Per Game: 28.3 (Ranking: 52)

Points Allowed Per Game: 26.9 (Ranking: 65)

Toledo:

Passing: 203.5 ypg (Ranking: 73)

Rushing: 156.0 ypg (Ranking: 58)

Scoring: 27.6 ppg (Ranking: 54)

Scoring Defense: 28.1 ppg (Ranking: 71)

Little Caesars Bowl
By Judd Hall

Christmas has come and gone, taking with it a house full of family and other assorted headaches. Now gamblers can get back to the task at hand by loading up on football action this Sunday. So the NFL will be getting plenty of love, but the college bowls will get back in gear, too.

For those looking to get a respite from the pros can partake of the Little Caesars Bowl between Florida International (6-6 straight up and against the spread) and the Rockets from Ford Field in Detroit, Michigan.

Toledo (8-4 SU, 7-5 ATS) makes the short trip up I-75 for its first postseason berth 2005. And the Rockets are arguably playing their best football at the moment, having gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last five regular season battles.

Tim Beckman’s club isn’t going to wow anyone with its stats. This is a group that was 53rd in scoring offense (27.6 points per game) and 79th in total offense (395.5 yards per game).

So how are the Rockets moving the ball right now? By hitting the ground game hard, that’s how. They’re averaging 156.0 rushing YPG this season to rank 58th in the country. That tends to happen when you have an offensive line that averages 303.8 pounds per player. Adonis Thomas (873 yards, 6 TDs) has been the top rusher for Toledo this season. But quarterback Austin Dantin is the one finding the end zone more via his legs with eight scores on 142 total rushing yards.

Dantin has also proven to be more than capable of throwing the ball by connecting on 66 percent of his passes for 1,256 yards and seven scores. However, he’s “questionable” for this game after a separated shoulder he suffered against Eastern Michigan on Oct. 30. That most likely means that Terrance Owens will set up under center for the Rockets. Owens has played great as a true freshman by throwing 12 touchdowns to just two interceptions. Of course, it doesn’t hurt to have a guy like Eric Page to throw to on a regular basis.

All Page has done this season is average 7.8 receptions per game this season for 90.1 YPG, which ranks fifth among all receivers nationally. He’s also been a serious threat on special teams this year with 31.8 YPG on kickoff returns (3rd in FBS), bringing back two returns in his last game against Central Michigan for touchdowns.

Toledo is going to need everything they can get out of Page on Sunday night when they take on the Golden Panthers’ defense. Florida International has one of the more improved defensive units in the nation. They were giving up 491.6 yards per game last season. In 2010, FIU surrendered just 363.3 YPG. That’s an impressive difference of 128.3 YPG.

The big question for gamblers is that are those defensive numbers improved because of improved talent or is it because the Sun Belt Conference (for which they shared the championship) just not a good league? Well, the easiest way to break that down is to see how they played in their opening month against BCS talent.

Florida International went 0-4 SU to start the season, but 2-2 ATS against its non-conference foes to open the year. Its defense opened up strong with good showings against Rutgers (172 yards) and Texas A&M (400 yards). While people might want to harp on the yardage allowed, the Golden Panthers suffered a big collapse in the fourth quarter after carrying a 20-6 advantage. FIU’s stoppers didn’t fare too strong against Maryland (419 yards) and Pitt (469 yards), so it could be argued that its defense tired as it went through that gauntlet.

Even when the defense isn’t holding its own, the Golden Panthers have a strong offense to help pick up the slack. Mario Cristobal’s crew has rushed for 189.2 YPG and 213.2 YPG through the air.

FIU’s running game was dealt a blow when Jeremiah Harden went down with a toe injury against Louisiana-Monroe. Yet they’ve done quite well with the troika of Darian Mallary, Kendrick Rhodes and Darriet Perry. That entire group has done since Harden’s injury is average 240.0 rushing YPG in their last four games.

Wesley Carroll has been one of the better quarterbacks in the Sun Belt Conference this season. The former Mississippi State signal caller has completed 61.8 percent of his throws for 2,483 yards and 15 touchdowns. What has been an issue with Carroll is an innate ability to thrown an interception. He’s had 13 passes picked off by defenders this season. Although, Carroll has been better about he decisions throwing the ball with just two interceptions over the last four games.

The sportsbook have this game as being a fairly close affair, evidenced by tabbing the Rockets as 1 ½-point favorites with a total of 56 ½. Bettors looking for FIU to pick up a win in its first bowl game for a plus-105 return (risk $100 to win $105).

If you think that line is a little strange, then you’ll be glad to know that you’re not the only one to think as much. “What's strange to me is to see a team that won its conference title that a dog to a team that did not,” says VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Marc Lawrence. “While Toledo has more wins it played in a conference that was just a cut above Ivy League status. The site and lack of fan support for the Panther favors the Rockets, little else does.”

As adamant as Lawrence is about the line being a tad misplaced, Sportsbook.com’s Mike Pierce believes it is right where it should be. “I think this line at Toledo -1.5 is perfect for this matchup. While it will essentially be a home game for Toledo (only an hour drive to Detroit), I believe that the Sun Belt is just as good of a conference as the MAC has been this year.”

Pierce concludes, “FIU beat Troy 52-35 on the road this season, and you saw what Troy did to another MAC team Ohio this past weekend, destroying them in their bowl matchup.”

Something else that can swing some folks towards the Golden Panthers covering the number is the fact that Sun Belt teams are 5-3 SU and 5-2-1 ATS over their past eight bowl games.

Little Caesars/Motor City Bowl history has tilted to the favorites, going 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS. However, the underdogs have gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS over the last three editions of this contest.

The ‘over’ has gone 8-5 in these contests. That would fit in nicely with the fact that Sun Belt programs have had high scoring battles in six of their last eight bowl games.

You can catch this game on Sunday at 8:30 p.m. EST on ESPN.

vegasinsider.com

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl: What Bettors Need to Know

Florida International Golden Panthers vs Toledo Rockets (-1.5, 56)

The Skinny

Florida International (6-6, 6-6 ATS) can run up the points in the passing game and on the ground but have had some trouble stopping teams from time to time. After dropping the first four games of the season to BCS-caliber competition, the Panthers fought back to finish tied for first in the Sun Belt - a position that landed them in the first bowl game in school history.

After a few lean years Toledo (8-4, 7-5 ATS) went out and brought in long-time college assistant Tim Beckham to be the head coach. So far, so good, as Beckham installed a high-powered offense that averaged 360 yards a game and got the Rockets to eight wins in his second season.

Florida International’s Edge

Running back by committee. The Panthers figured to take a hit when starter Jeremiah Harden went down after six games but are now giving carries to Darriet Perry, Darian Malloy and Kedrick Rhodes without missing a beat. The three combined for 1,669 yards this season.

Toledo’s Edge

Wide receiver Eric Page made his way onto the Mid-American all-conference team as both a receiver and a kick returner. The former high school quarterback proved to be a dangerous threat in Beckham’s offense, catching eight touchdown passes, throwing for three more and returning three kicks for scores.

The Quarterbacks

FIU’s Wes Carroll Completed nearly 62 percent of his passes this season and was just dangerous enough to keep defenses from keying on the running game. He finished the season with 2,483 yards and 15 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. T.Y. Hilton was on the receiving end of 56 of Carroll’s passes, coming up with a team-high 816 yards.

Toledo will counter with freshman Terrence Owens, who took over at Eastern Michigan on October 30 and refused to give the job back, throwing for 11 touchdowns and two interceptions over the final four games. Owens passed for 1,112 yards and has the help of Page, who finished fifth in the nation with 94 catches.

NFL Prospects

Florida International - CB Anthony Gaitor, OT Cedric Mack, WR Greg Ellingson. Toledo - OC Kevin Kowalski, LB Archie Donald

Bowl History

Florida International - This will be the first bowl game in school history for the Panthers. Toledo - The Rockets are 7-3 all-time in bowl games, most recently earning a 45-13 win over UTEP in the 2005 GMAC Bowl.

Etc.

Toledo sophomore quarterback Austin Dantin, who was injured against Eastern Michigan, is expected to be available as a reserve in the bowl game.

Carroll needs one touchdown pass to set the single-season record for FIU while his center, senior Brad Serini will become the only player in school history to start every game in his collegiate career.

Trends

- Golden Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
- Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
- Under is 5-2-1 in Golden Panthers last eight games overall.
- Over is 13-5 in Rockets last 18 games as a favorite.