Look Aheads and Let Downs - Week 6
By Judd Hall
There were some close finishes and questionable calls in college football last week, but nothing that really was out of the ordinary.
What I took out of Week 5 of the season is that Sam Bradford would have made a difference for the Sooners in Miami and “BCS Buster” squads like the Cougars appear to be more susceptible to traps.
We’ve got a hat trick of games that appear to be traps for us to pounce upon. Let’s take a look at them.
Tunneling underground…
Houston was starting to get the attention from the media after taking down a pair of Big XII foes. Needless to say, the Cougars weren’t really up to face off with UTEP as 14 ½-point road faves. The Miners parlayed Donald Buckram’s 262 yards and four touchdowns to a 58-41 upset of then No. 12 Houston.
Will the Miners win their second straight this weekend against Memphis? The betting shops are leaning that way by making them three-point road favorites.
It’s not a stretch to think that the Tigers will fall over for UTEP here. This is a team that has yet to beat a FBS level club this year in four chances, failing to cover the spread in any of them.
Why should you back Memphis in this spot? They have won and covered both games they have played against the Miners. One of those wins snapped a nine-game skid and the other came after Memphis had lost two of its first three games.
Trapped Sooners…
Oklahoma definitely could have used Bradford under center last Saturday in South Florida against the ‘Canes. His backup, Landry Jones, moved the chains just once out of the 10 times that he threw the ball on third down.
The plus side is that it sounds like Bradford will be back this week against Baylor. The Sooners are currently listed as 25-point home favorites.
What could prove problematic for OU against the Bears is the lack of offensive pop. Sure, you still have DeMarco Murray in the backfield. But they are without All-American tight end Jermaine Gresham for the season and wide receiver Ryan Broyles is now out for the year with a fractured shoulder blade. That eliminates a lot of options on the attack.
Another thing to keep in mind is this isn’t the same old Baylor squad that was a perennial doormat. They’re 3-1 straight up and 1-2 against the spread this season, which is the Bears’ best start since 2007. But they will be starting freshman QB Nick Florence, who replaced Robert Griffin after going down for the season with a torn right ACL.
The Sooners will also be preparing for their annual showdown with Texas the following weekend, which could help Baylor out on occasion. Plus, the Bears are 5-3 ATS in their last eight meetings with Oklahoma.
Spartan Hangover…
It almost looked like Michigan State was going to come up on the short end of the stick once again when Tate Forcier helped the Wolverines force overtime with two seconds left. Larry Caper made sure the Spartans walked away a 26-20 winner with a 24 yard scamper in the extra session.
The betting shops like the Spartans as they’ve made them four-point road faves against Illinois.
Does it make sense to make Michigan State the “chalk” for this game? When you consider the Illini have been manhandled in all three of their games against FBS schools, then yes.
What people should remember is that Illinois beat the Spartans in East Lansing in 2006 as a huge 25-point road underdog. Plus, MSU is just 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last five games following the meeting with the Wolverines.
vegasinsider.com