Midseason Report Card

Midseason Report Card
By Bruce Marshall

We’re nearing the midway point of the college football campaign, and as we usually like to do in mid-October, it’s time to hand out "grades" to the teams for their efforts. We have always thought a collective midseason review was an important handicapping tool, as it forces us to categorize teams that have generally been overachieving, or underachieving, thus far in the season.

Although such a review is always going to be somewhat subjective, it can provide a useful barometer on how teams have performed, and, just maybe, what they’re likely to do in the last half of the campaign. Moreover, an examination of the following "grades" could always help to uncover some useful info for the serious handicapper seeking to identify overachieving, and underachieving, point-spread performers.

We don’t use our midseason checkups to grade teams in relation to one another. Rather, we have weighed how they have performed against preseason expectations, with concessions for extraordinarily good, or bad, performances.

And point-spread performance (good or bad) can often be a more-revealing element of such a progress report than pure straight-up records. For example, we’re not saying Army or Idaho or Hawaii are better than Oklahoma or Alabama or Florida (Give QB Bryant Moniz and the Warrior Red Gun enough points at Aloha Stadium, however, and we might have something to talk about). But, when comparing their performances vs. preseason expectations, the kids from West Point and Hawaii have achieved a little bit more than the highly-regarded Gators and Crimson Tide, and have been rewarded "A" grades for their efforts.

Keep in mind that these grades are subject to weekly review and can change quickly. We’ll provide another update later in the regular season. Following are the five traditional grading categories—A, B, C, D, & F, with "+" and "-" addendums on each level—and the teams we believe fit into those categories thru the games of last weekend.

A...Outstanding performance, or far beyond preseason expectations: A+...Boise State, Utah; A...Arizona, Army, Idaho, Hawaii, Michigan State, Nebraska, North Carolina State, Ohio State, Oregon, TCU; A-...Auburn, Florida State, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma State, South Carolina, Stanford.

Notes...Considering some of the problems and distractions head coach Butch Davis has had to deal with at North Carolina, the Tar Heels probably deserve their A- rating despite suffering a couple of early losses. Boise State and Utah have been near-flawless and have even exceeded their lofty expectations thus far, hence their A+ grades. Florida State could justify a straight A if not for the egg the Seminoles laid at Oklahoma; if the Seminoles keep winning, however, the memory of that defeat will regress further and further, and the ‘Noles could move up even higher by the next time we rate the teams in November.

Meanwhile, NC State would likely have warranted an A+ if not for blowing a late lead in the Oct. 2 loss vs. Virginia Tech. Stanford would also have been due an A+ two weeks ago, but a loss at Oregon and non-cover vs. Southern Cal have temporarily pushed the Cardinal to A- territory.

B...Above-average performance, or generally exceeding preseason expectations. B+...Illinois, Iowa, Louisville, Maryland, Missouri, Northern Illinois, Syracuse, Temple, UTEP; B...Air Force, Alabama, Arizona State, Arkansas, Arkansas State, Baylor, LSU, Mississippi State, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Ohio, Oregon State, San Diego State, SMU, Troy, Tulane, UCF, Vanderbilt, Virginia; B-...Indiana, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Virginia Tech, Washington State, Western Kentucky.

Notes...Several of the "B+" teams are just a week or away from earning an upgrade, as the likes of Illinois, Louisville, and Northern Illinois have suddenly emerged teams to watch. We could also probably justify moving 4-1 Maryland up to A- territory; it’s just that we’ve seen the Terps play a few times. Let’s just say the HC Ralph Friedgen might be due a few Coach of the Year votes for steering Maryland into the bowl discussion. Mike Price’s UTEP has also been a pleasant surprise in the early going.

Other "movers" in the next few weeks could be Notre Dame, starting to hit stride for new HC Brian Kelly, and, as usual, Oregon State, which seems to be starting its annual October push after last Saturday’s upset win over Arizona. San Diego State was solidly the A category before disappointing last week at BYU, and considering the mostly-soft slate the Aztecs have had to deal with in the first six weeks of the season, we moved them down after that loss in Provo. Another to watch in the coming weeks could be Frank Solich’s Ohio Bobcats, who seem to hitting stride lately. Heading in the other direction, beware of quick starters such as Indiana and Texas A&M beginning to drop as the teeth of their conference schedules awaits. Meanwhile, although Washington State and Western Kentucky don’t have to worry about any bowl games, their efforts have been mostly encouraging, and a bit better than expected. If anything, the Cougs and Tops might warrant a B instead of their B- designations.

C...Average performance; not much better or worse than initial expectations; or lack of consistency in efforts. C+...California, UConn, Florida International, Toledo, UAB, UCLA, Washington; C...Ball State, Buffalo, Bowling Green, Central Michigan, Cincinnati, Clemson, Colorado, Duke, Fresno State, Georgia Tech, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas State, Kent State, UL-Lafayette, UL-Monroe, La Tech, Miami-Florida, Miami-Ohio, Minnesota, Ole Miss, Navy, Purdue, Rice, Rutgers, San Jose State, South Florida, Southern Miss, Texas Tech, Tulsa, Utah State, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Wyoming; C-...Colorado State, Florida, Marshall, North Texas, Pitt, Tennessee, UNLV, Western Michigan, Wisconsin.

Notes...We’d keep an eye on several teams in this group that seem to have put some early-season problems behind them and have started to show signs of emerging. Cincinnati, a 45-3 winner over nearby Miami-Ohio last weekend (and it wasn’t that close), looks to be starting a bowl push for new HC Butch Jones. Georgia Tech, which might have been in the D category recently, now has two wins in a row and a nice cover last weekend vs. Virginia, as Paul Johnson’s option looks to be humming again. La Tech, beginning to get the hang of new HC Sonny Dykes’ spread and always formidable vs. WAC opposition at its Ruston base, could be another upwardly mobile entry. Tulsa, a slow starter this season, has covered three games in a row and looks to be on the road back to another bowl. After being an early-season flop, Ole Miss has also moved up into the C category with recent wins over Fresno State and Kentucky. On the other hand, a handful of these two looks as if they could start falling in the wrong direction.

Meanwhile, Bowling Green’s encouraging start has been negated by some one-sided recent defeats; the Falcons haven’t looked the same since being emasculated at Michigan a few weeks ago. Duke has been losing touch in recent games, its defense an ongoing liability and QB Sean Renfree showing signs of distress. Minnesota, which has lost five straight but covered some numbers along the way, is an interesting case study to watch in the next few weeks if HC Tim Brewster’s job status becomes the issue some in the Twin Cities expect it to be. In the C- category, keep an eye on UNLV, beaten down by a tough schedule and approaching a very tricky portion of the campaign for a new coach (Bobby Hauck) who might be tempted to sit some veteran upperclassmen from the regime he inherited in favor of some of his own recruits. Already, there are signs of some fraying of the nerves in Las Vegas (big-play WR Philip Payne was suspended for last week’s trip to West Virginia).

D...Below-average performance, or falling significantly short of preseason expectations, for any assortment of reasons. D+...Florida Atlantic, Kansas, Texas; D...Akron, BYU, Georgia, Memphis, Middle Tennessee, New Mexico State, Penn State, Southern Cal; D-Boston College.

Notes...We didn’t expect much from Florida Atlantic, but we have to punish Howard Schnellenberger’s team for losing to UL-Monroe. Without that startling upset win over Georgia Tech back on September 11, Turner Gill’s debut season at Kansas would be a huge disappointment and worthy of a straight D or worse. On the other hand, BYU and Georgia both hinted at catching possible updrafts with crucial home wins last weekend when it looked as if the respective seasons for each were about to head down the tubes. It was especially important for Bulldog HC Mark Richt to get that win vs. Tennessee.

Meanwhile, Penn State and Southern Cal rate as big disappointments, and the Trojans get no mulligan because of their stiff probation, with the defense looking abysmal. As for Boston College, we were tempted to give the Eagles one of the few failing grades, especially with their point-spread losing streak now at a nation’s-worst nine games, covering the past two seasons.

F...Failure, or not remotely approaching preseason expectations. Eastern Michigan and New Mexico.

Notes...Ron English has to be wondering why on earth he took the thankless job in Ypslianti after suffering his 18th straight loss in charge of the Eagles, a 52-6 pasting at the hands of none other than Vanderbilt. Hard to believe English was considered one of the hottest assistant coach commodities in the country a few years ago, when many thought he might ascend from Michigan’s defensive coordinator to the top job whenever Lloyd Carr called it quits. A few years can change a lot of things, can’t they? Meanwhile, winless New Mexico’s reward for losing its second straight game to New Mexico State is an F grade; the D was on the line for the winner of last week’s titanic tussle at Las Cruces.