Bills at Patriots Trends, Injuries & Picks
Foxboro, MA - In the first of two football games on Monday night, the New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills in a clash between two teams from the AFC East.
The Patriots have Super Bowl intentions again this year now that quarterback Tom Brady is completely healthy. He looked sharp in preseason, hooking up several times with Randy Moss in what seemed like a repeat of 2007 when the pair lit up scoreboards on their way to leading New England to a 16-0 record.
The Bills hope that the offseason acquisition of Terrell Owens will give their ho-hum offense a spark, although Buffalo will be without running back Marshawn Lynch because he’s serving a suspension. T.O. battled a toe injury all preseason, but is expected to play Monday nigh at Foxboro.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sports Interaction have made the Patriots 11.5-point home favorites against the Bills. The over/under total for this matchup has been established at 47.5.
The last time these two teams squared off was in Buffalo on December 28. The Patriots won that game 13-0 and covered the 5.5-point spread. These teams also faced off in November of last year, with New England coming away with a 20-10 victory while covering the 3.5-point spread.
The Bills should intrigue bettors in this game because their secondary is actually very good. In fact, the entire Buffalo defense screams of potential, although they can never seem to stay healthy as a group.
This game might start off slow, but the Patriots will eventually get into a rhythm. Brady will look to spread the ball around to his excellent receiving corps and if Buffalo can’t generate any pressure, it won’t matter how good the secondary is.
Look for New England to double-team Owens as quarterback Trent Edwards tries to get him the ball early and often. The Bills are going to have a hard time running the ball without Lynch and if they become too one-dimensional, the Patriots will win in a route.
We like New England in this matchup, as well as the under 47.5. While the Pats should score plenty of points, we don’t think the Bills will hold up to their end of the bargain and therefore the total will fall under.
Our NFL Week 1 Free Picks for this matchup are: NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS –11.5 and UNDER 47.5.
Bills at Patriots Current Odds
Buffalo Bills +11.5 Over 47.5
New England Patriots –11.5 Under 47.5
NFL Week 1 Betting Trends
Buffalo is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Buffalo
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
NFL Week 1 Injury Report
Buffalo Bills
James Hardy, WR, P-U-P List
Marshawn Lynch, RB, Out Until Week 4 (suspension)
Derek Fine, TE, Out Week 1 (hamstring)
Drayton Florence, CB, Out Week 1 (knee)
Spencer Johnson, DT, Probable Week 1 (thigh)
New England Patriots
Mark LeVoir, T, P-U-P List
Matt Slater, WR, Out Week 1 (elbow)
Myron Pryor, DT, Questionable Week 1 (calf)
Dan Connolly, C, Questionable Week 1 (back)
Julian Edelman, WR, Questionable Week 1 (ankle)
Wes Welker, WR, Questionable Week 1 (knee)
Terrence Wheatley, CB, Questionable Week 1 (knee)
Tom Brady, QB, Probable Week 1 (right shoulder)
Bret Lockett, S, Probable Week 1 (chest)
Benjamin Watson, TE, Probable Week 1 (hamstring)
Sammy Morris, RB, Probable Week 1 (finger)
Shawn Springs, CB, Probable Week 1 (knee)
Chargers at Raiders Trends, Injuries & Picks
In the final game on the Week 1 schedule in the NFL, AFC West rivals meet in Oakland when the Raiders host the San Diego Chargers at 10:15PM ET.
After winning the AFC West last year and knocking off the Colts in the Wild Card round of the playoffs, the Chargers have lofty expectations heading into 2009. Philip Rivers is back, as are Antonio Gates, LaDainian Tomlinson, Darren Sproles and Vincent Jackson.
San Diego will also feature a defense that returns linebacker Shawne Merriman, who sat out all of last year after having knee surgery. The Bolts believe that a healthy Merriman will help their defense get the swagger back that they showed in 2007 when they went to the AFC Championship Game.
Oddmskaers from online sports book BetOnline have made the Chargers 10-point road favorites in their matchup Monday night with the Raiders. The over/under total for this game has been set at 42.5.
Don’t overthink things when handicapping this game. San Diego is 5-0 against the spread in its last five games when playing on the road against Oakland. The Chargers have the significantly better team and will make things rough for quarterback JaMarcus Russell and a defense severely lacking in overall talent.
Along with the Chargers, we recommend taking the over in this game. The total has gone over in four of San Diego’s last five games on the road and they might score 34 points on their own tonight against a suspect Oakland defense.
Our NFL Week 1 Free Picks for this matchup are: SAN DIEGO CHARGERS –10 and OVER 42.5.
Chargers at Raiders Current Odds
Buffalo Bills +11.5 Over 47.5
New England Patriots –11.5 Under 47.5
NFL Week 1 Betting Trends
San Diego is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home
NFL Week 1 Injury Report
San Diego Chargers
Jacques Cesaire, DE, Questionable Week 1 (calf)
Marcus McNeill, T, Probable Week 1 (hand)
OAKLAND Raiders
Chaz Schilens, WR, Out Week 1 (foot)
Nick Miller, WR, Doubtful Week 1 (shin)
Khalif Barnes, T, Doubtful Week 1 (ankle)
Justin Fargas, RB, Questionable Week 1 (hamstring)
Nnamdi Asomugha, CB, Probable Week 1 (wrist)
Kirk Morrison, LB, Probable Week 1 (elbow)
Isaiah Ekejiuba, LB, Probable Week 1 (shoulder)