MNF - Falcons at Buccaneers
December 17, 2017
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
LAST WEEK
The Falcons (8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS) rebounded from a five-point home loss to the Vikings by edging the rival Saints, 20-17 as 2 ½-point home favorites. Atlanta trailed heading into the fourth quarter, 17-10, but the Falcons tied it with ten minutes remaining when Matt Ryan hit Mohamed Sanu for an eight-yard touchdown. The Falcons ultimately took the lead on a 52-yard field goal by Matt Bryant with under four minutes remaining to keep Atlanta in the mix for the NFC South title.
Ryan overcame a three-interception night as he hooked up with wide receiver Julio Jones five times for 98 yards, while Sanu hauled in 83 yards. Devonta Freeman scored Atlanta’s first touchdown and rushed for 91 yards, his second-highest rushing total of the season. The Falcons have won four of their past five games, while picking up their second divisional victory of the season after knocking off Tampa Bay in Week 12.
The expectations were high in Tampa this season following a near-playoff miss in 2016. However, the Buccaneers (4-9 SU, 3-9-1 ATS) have slumped to a last place finish in the NFC South after dropping their third consecutive game last Sunday against Detroit. The Lions kicked a late field goal to edge the Bucs, 24-21 to suffer their third home loss of the season.
In six of the past seven games, the Bucs have been held to 21 points or fewer, while falling to 2-8 in the past 10 contests since a 2-1 start. Tampa Bay trailed 21-7 in the fourth quarter, but Jameis Winston led the Bucs on a pair of scoring drives with touchdown passes to rookie tight end O.J. Howard and tackle-eligible Leonard Wester. However, the Bucs suffered only their second home loss to an NFC opponent in their last eight tries.
FLYING ON THE HIGHWAY
Atlanta is playing away from Mercedes Benz Stadium for the first time in nearly a month following its 2-1 homestand. The Falcons have fared well away from their new home by posting a 4-2 road record, including a victory at Seattle back in Week 11. All four away victories have come by six points or less, as Atlanta has failed to cover in its two opportunities as 6 ½-point favorites in wins over the Bears and Jets.
DIVISION STRUGGLES
Last season, the Buccaneers were excellent against NFC South foes by compiling a 4-2 record. Things have gone south this season for Dirk Koetter’s club within the division as Tampa Bay owns an 0-3 SU/ATS mark with a loss to each of its three NFC South rivals. In 2016, the Bucs picked up a pair of late season home wins over the Saints and Panthers, while scoring 17 points or fewer in each victory.
TOTAL TALK
What a difference a year makes as the Falcons registered the OVER in 16 of 20 games last season. Atlanta has hit the OVER in only five of 13 contests in 2017, while coming off consecutive UNDERS against Minnesota and New Orleans. In games with totals below 50, the Falcons are 6-3 to the UNDER, including a 2-2 mark in such instances on the road.
Tampa Bay had its three-game OVER streak snapped in last Sunday’s UNDER against Detroit, as the Bucs are currently 5-1 to the UNDER at Raymond James Stadium. Dating back to last November, the Bucs are on an 8-1 UNDER run at home, while scoring 17 points or less six times in this span.
PREVIOUS MEETING
The Buccaneers made their first visit to Mercedes Benz Stadium in Week 12 as Tampa Bay allowed Atlanta to score 17 second quarter points in a 34-20 defeat. The Falcons picked up the cover as 10-point favorites thanks to a late Tevin Coleman touchdown run as Atlanta racked up 516 yards of offense. Ryan put together one of his best games of the season with 317 yards passing, while Jones torched the Bucs’ defense for 253 yards and two touchdowns receiving.
Winston missed the first matchup with a shoulder injury, but the Bucs have put together a 3-1 SU/ATS record when the Heisman Trophy winner has started against Atlanta in his brief career. In last season’s two meetings with the Falcons, Winston tossed seven touchdown passes and one interception, but the Bucs lost at home to Atlanta, 43-28 as 4 ½-point underdogs. Each of the past three matchups have sailed OVER the total, while the Bucs and Falcons have split the previous four games at Raymond James Stadium.
UNDERDOG SWING
Favorites went six consecutive weeks winning and covering on Monday nights from Week 6 through Week 11. However, underdogs have taken the money the last three Mondays, including Miami’s upset of New England last week, 27-20 as 10 ½-point ‘dogs. The loss by the Patriots ended an 11-game straight-up winning streak by favorites on Monday nights as the last underdog to grab a victory came way back in Week 2 by the Lions over the Giants.
GAME PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook
Total Completions - Matt Ryan
OVER 23 (-110)
UNDER 23 (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Matt Ryan
OVER 2 (+120)
UNDER 2 (-140)
Total Receiving Yards – Julio Jones
OVER 95 ½ (-110)
UNDER 95 ½ (-110)
Total Gross Passing Yards – Jameis Winston
OVER 278 ½ (-110)
UNDER 278 ½ (-110)
Total Touchdown Passes – Jameis Winston
OVER 1 ½ (-135)
UNDER 1 ½ (+115)
Total Receiving Yards – Mike Evans
OVER 74 ½ (-110)
UNDER 74 ½ (-110)
HANDICAPPER’S CORNER
VegasInsider.com handicapper Joe Nelson mentions the step back taken by the league MVP and this Falcons’ offense, “The Falcons will match last season’s 11-5 record if they win out, but the scoring numbers are not comparable as this year’s offense has struggled to find consistent success. Ryan has gone from being the league MVP to posting rather average numbers. With three games to go, Ryan isn’t even to half of his 2016 touchdown total while already posting four more interceptions than last season.”
From an ATS standpoint, Nelson points out that both these teams have negative trends heading into Monday, “The Buccaneers are on a 12-25 ATS run as a home underdog since 2007, losing in the only instance this season with a 19-14 defeat to the Patriots at only +3 ½, a spread that looks out of place at this point in the season. The Falcons are just 1-3 ATS as a road favorite this season and the lone cover came in Detroit in Week 3 with a controversial finish to cover by a point with a late Lions score to win the game overturned on replay review.”
NFL expert Vince Akins has dug up a nice trend that would fade Atlanta in this spot, “The Falcons are 0-10 ATS since Sep 28, 2014 as a favorite coming of a game where they committed at least two turnovers.” Amazingly, the Falcons have won only once in this situation, while scoring exactly 17 points in three straight-up defeats this season to the Bills, Dolphins, and Panthers.
BOOKMAKER’S TAKE
Scott Cooley of BookMaker.eu says the Falcons are getting all the attention for this contest, "Sharps and squares alike on Atlanta for Monday Night Football. We can’t buy a Bucs bet on this game. Currently, we have more than 80 percent of the tickets on the road chalk and three quarters of the money is on the side as well. If we don’t get some value money on Tampa, we’ll be fairly exposed with the Falcons."
When: 8:30 PM ET, Monday, December 18, 2017
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Preview: Falcons at Buccaneers
Gracenote
Dec 15, 2017
The Atlanta Falcons are in control of their playoff destiny and their chances to repeat as NFC South champions, but they also have a pack of teams nipping at their heels for the final postseason spot in the conference. A winner of four of its last five, Atlanta visits the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on Monday night in a rematch from three weeks ago.
The Falcons are one game behind NFC South co-leaders New Orleans and Carolina but still have to play the Saints and Panthers, giving them a chance to claim the division title by winning their final three games. “Focusing on the next team could be a little bit distracting,” Falcons linebacker De’Vondre Campbell said. “We have to focus on (Tampa Bay) because every game at this point is a must-win.” Atlanta, which currently holds the tiebreaker over Seattle for the No. 6 seed in the NFC, beat visiting Tampa Bay 34-20 on Nov. 26, but the Buccaneers were without quarterback Jameis Winston, who will be making his third start since returning from injury. Winston rallied Tampa Bay from a 14-point deficit last week before Tampa Bay lost to Detroit 24-21 in the final minute -- its third straight defeat and eighth in 10 games.
TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Falcons -6. O/U: 49
ABOUT THE FALCONS (8-5): Despite surpassing 1,000 yards for the fourth consecutive year, Julio Jones was having a relatively quiet season by his lofty standards until torching Tampa Bay for 12 catches for 253 yards and a pair of touchdowns -- his second and third scores of the campaign. Jones also had eight catches for 101 yards and a score at Tampa Bay in November 2016 as quarterback Matt Ryan riddled the Buccaneers for 344 yards and four touchdowns passes. Devonta Freeman has rushed for 165 yards in two games since returning from a concussion and could be in line for a heavy workload with backup Tevin Coleman in the concussion protocol. Adrian Clayborn (hamstring), who leads the team in sacks, did not practice Thursday, but coach Dan Quinn is moving Vic Beasley back into a pure pass-rushing role.
ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (4-9): Winston, who threw two fourth-quarter touchdowns last week to erase a 14-point deficit, enjoyed plenty of success last season against Atlanta, throwing for 542 yards with seven scores against one interception. Wideout Mike Evans has been practically invisible the past two games with a combined four catches, but he had eight receptions in last month's loss to the Falcons and lit them up for 16 catches for 249 yards and three touchdowns in both meetings last season. With Doug Martin continuing to struggle, Peyton Barber has provided a jolt to the ground game with 160 yards rushing over the past two contests. Tackle Gerald McCoy and linebacker Lavonte David missed practice, putting more pressure on a defense that surrenders a league-worst 276.1 yards passing.
EXTRA POINTS
1. Ryan has 17 scoring passes and five interceptions in his last eight Monday night appearances.
2. Buccaneers WR DeSean Jackson has 690 yards and three TDs in his past six Monday night games.
3. Atlanta is 8-0 when scoring at least 20 points this season.
PREDICTION: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 23