MNF News and Notes 12/13

NFL Tech Trends - Week 14
By Bruce Marshall

BALTIMORE at HOUSTON... Ravens only 4-6-1 vs. spread last 11 on road, and 2-3 last 5 as road chalk. Kubiak "over" 8-4 TY and "over" 10-4 last 14 since late '09. Texans 0-3 SU and 1-2 vs. line all-time vs. Ravens. Kubiak 5-2 last 7 as home dog since '07. Tech edge-slight to "over" and Texans, based on Kubiak trends.

NY GIANTS at MINNESOTA...The last time Giants played at Metrodome, it was '09 reg.-season finale and they were blasted 44-7. Revenge is on the plate here. Vikes only 2-5 vs. line last 7 TY but have won and covered both since Brad Childress fired and Leslie Frazier promoted to HC spot. G-Men "under" last three after "over" 6-3 first 9 TY. Tech edge-Giants, based on Viking negatives.

Week 14 Games

Ravens (8-4) @ Texans (5-7) - Baltimore has to be smarting after losing pivotal game to Steelers last week on sack/fumble with 3:14 left when they had 10-6 lead and the ball, but Ravens are 3-0 in game following a loss this year, winning by 7-3-24 points (1-2 as favorite in those games). Baltimore is just 3-3 on road, with five of six games decided by 5 or less points. Houston can score, putting up 20+ points in nine of 12 games, but they’re 3-3 at home, and allowed 30+ points in seven of last eight games (shut Titans out when 3rd-stringer Smith played QB). AFC South underdogs are 8-6 vs spread in non-division games, 0-2 at home. AFC North favorites are 6-11, 3-2 on road. Four of last five Houston games went over total. Ravens won all three series games, by 4-1-28 points.

Giants (8-4) @ Vikings (5-7) - Minnesota 2-0 with Frazier as interim coach, allowing 13.5 ppg (forced 10 3/outs on 21 drives), but they won last week despite throwing four INTs (had five takeaways), which doesn’t happen much. Vikings won last four in series, including 44-7 debacle LY. Manning hasn’t been sacked in last five games; Giants were held to 20 or less points in all four losses- they’re 7-0 if they score more than 20 points. Minnesota had allowed 24+ points in five straight games before coaching change was made- is noticeable that team plays harder with Childress gone. NFC North underdogs are 9-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Viking games, but 0-3 in Giants’ last three.

Gridiron Angles - Week 14
By Vince Akins

Ravens at Texans - The Ravens are 9-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since November 10, 1996 after a loss at home in which they were winning at the half. The Ravens are 6-0-2 ATS (9.4 ppg) since November 22, 1998 within 3 of pick after a straight up loss when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Ravens are 9-0 OU (14.9 ppg) since November 10, 1996 after a loss at home in which they were winning at the half. The Texans are 9-0 OU (11.3 ppg) since December 18, 2005 within 3 of pick at home after a straight up loss.

Giants at Vikings - The Giants are 9-0 ATS (13.4 ppg) since December 22, 2002 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 04, 2005 within 3 of pick after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Vikings are 12-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) since November 25, 1990 within 3 of pick at home when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Vikings are 0-11 ATS (-13.7 ppg) since November 24, 1991 when they won by 14+ last game and had less than two sacks. The Vikings are 0-8-1 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since October 28, 2001 within 3 of pick when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (14.6 ppg) since September 25, 2005 at home when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Giants are 9-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since October 21, 2007 when they won by 21+ points last week. The Giants are 8-0 OU (12.5 ppg) since November 09, 2008 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Vikings are 0-9 OU (-10.2 ppg) since October 31, 1999 as a favorite when they rushed for at least 50 yards more last week than their season-to-date average. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (6.0 ppg) since September 25, 2005 at home when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Vikings are 0-6 OU (-7.2 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a favorite the week after scoring 34+ points at home.

Ravens at Texans: What Bettors Need to Know
By Steve Merril

Current Odds

The Ravens opened as 3-point road favorites and the line has held steady at most books, while a few shops have Baltimore at -2.5 (-120). The line might rise a bit on Monday night as 76 percent of the public is backing the Ravens according to the Covers.com consensus.

The over/under line opened at 45.5 and has since risen to 46 total points, despite the fact 55 percent of the public supports the under according to the Covers.com consensus.

Weather will not be an issue as the forecast is calling for clear conditions, plus Reliant Stadium has a retractable roof.

Injury Report

Baltimore will be without tight end Todd Heap who injured his hamstring last week. Heap is third on the team in receiving yards (546) and fourth in receptions (37) this season. Cornerback Fabian Washington also has a hamstring injury and is questionable, while fullback Le’Ron McClain and offensive guard Chris Chester are both probable.

Houston tight end Owens Daniels has missed the past five games, but he is expected to return to the lineup tonight. Star wide receiver Andre Johnson (71 receptions, 1,018 yards) continues to battle an ankle injury, but he’s listed as probable and expected to play. Defensive end Mario Williams is also probable, along with safety Bernard Pollard.

Protecting Flacco

The Baltimore offense has not played well in its last two games. The Ravens only scored a total of 27 points; they averaged 30 points per game in the four games prior. And a big reason for the decline in production has been a decline in two areas, their running game and their offensive line protection.

The Ravens had just 92 rushing yards against the Buccaneers and just 43 rushing yards last week against the Steelers. Quarterback Joe Flacco has been sacked 11 times in the past three games and a whopping 17 times in the last five games. There was none bigger than Troy Polamalu’s game-winning sack, forced fumble for the Steelers on Sunday night.

Offensive coordinator Cam Cameron is taking responsibility for that play.

“You’re looking at the guy responsible,” Cameron told reporters. “There was a flaw in that protection. In 25-plus years, I have never seen that happen, and it showed up at the worst possible time it could have, and it’s my job to catch that flaw.
“That flaw has been corrected. Next time you see a guy unblocked in that protection, it’ll be where the quarterback’s expecting it to be unblocked.”

Run, Foster, Run

Houston running back Arian Foster is the NFL’s leading rusher and is leading all AFC running backs in Pro Bowl voting with 414,033 total votes.

The 24-year-old Foster leads the league rushing touchdowns (13) and yards from scrimmage (1,709). His remarkable season has come by surprise to a lot of people after he went undrafted in 2009, partly because he ran a pedestrian-like 4.7-second 40-yard dash.

”I just kind of take what the defense gives me,” Foster says. “I’m a real smooth runner; I think I’m deceptively fast, I get upfield and I can make you miss in the open field.”

And Ravens Pro Bowl defensive tackle Haloti Ngata agrees with Foster’s self assessment.

“He hits the hole hard once he sees it, and he’s been doing that consistently against every team,” Ngata said. “He’ll start you one way and then once he sees that hole, he’ll just hit it.”

Kubiak Back to Denver?

Houston head coach Gary Kubiak made a name for himself as Denver’s offensive coordinator under head coach Mike Shanahan. Kubiak was the man calling plays for John Elway, and after Denver owner Pat Bowlen fired Josh McDainels, rumors have been swirling in the Mile High City.

Elway’s name has been mentioned to take over the personnel side of the organization (director of football operations) for Bowlen after he expressed a sincere interest in the job.

And if he gets the job, Elway’s top choice for the head coaching spot is said to be Kubiak. The two came into the league together in 1983 and then they worked together and won back-to-back Super Bowls with the Broncos.

But will Kubiak be willing to leave his hometown of Houston? And is he the right man for the job? In five seasons as Houston’s head coach, Kubiak and the Texans have just one winning season.

Keep an eye on this situation if it heats up because it could be a distraction for the Houston team going forward, especially if they continue to lose games.

Giants vs. Vikings: What Bettors Need to Know

Home Game In Detroit?

Mother Nature got in the way of Minnesota being able to host a game against the Giants that was supposed to be played Sunday afternoon at the Metrodome. The Giants couldn’t fly into Minnesota on Saturday because of a severe snowstorm in the Midwest.

The game was postponed to Monday night but it had to be moved to Detroit because of damage to the Metrodome’s roof. The roof of the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, which looks like a bubble atop the structure, in Minneapolis collapsed Sunday morning beneath the weight of the snow.

The roof started leaking water and, when it became clear stadium officials would not be able to fix the issues in time to have the Metrodome ready for Monday night, the NFL started brainstorming where to play the contest.

It was decided Sunday afternoon that the game would be played in Detroit at Ford Field.

ESPN’s Adam Shefter reported the Vikings wanted to move the game to the University of Minnesota’s home field but the league was told by the field would not be game-ready for Monday night.

Line Movement

The Giants opened as 1-point road favorites but the line was bet up to 2.5 during the week. The books took the game off the board when it became clear the game wouldn’t be played at the Metrodome. They reopened Sunday afternoon with the Giants favored by 3.5 points. Some shops even went as high as NYG -4.
The total is holding steady at 43.5.

What About Brett?

Brett Favre, who was slammed into the ground and left last week’s game against Buffalo, said in a text message to USA Today that he doubts he will be able to play Monday due to a shoulder injury, which would end his record consecutive games streak at 297.

Favre’s shoulder sprain is generally considered to be a three-week injury but the future Hall of Famer’s toughness has been well-documented during his 297-game consecutive start streak.

Vikings interim head coach Leslie Frasier told reporters on Friday that he wouldn’t hesitate to sit Favre and end the streak if he thought it’d be in the best interests of the club.

"If that's what I have to do, then that's what I have to do," Frazier told the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "But we'll see."

Tarvaris Jackson would get the nod at QB if Favre isn’t healthy enough to play. Jackson completed 15 of 22 pass attempts for 187 yards and two TD passes in relief of Favre last week but he also was picked off three times.

Other Injuries

Giants center Shaun O’Hara (foot) and tackle Shawn Andrews (back) are both doubtful but tackle David Diehl (hip) is expected to return to the lineup after sitting out last week against the Redskins. The club will also welcome back wide receivers Hakeem Nicks (leg) and Steve Smith (pectoral) who’ve each missed multiple games over the last month.

Meanwhile, Favre isn’t the only player on offense that Minnesota is worrying about. Speedy receiver Percy Harvin is listed as doubtful for Monday’s game against the Giants due to continuing migraine problems.

Might Be Giants

After dropping two games to Dallas and Philadelphia and committing eight turnovers - six by quarterback Eli Manning - the Giants have put together two strong defensive and error-free efforts against Jacksonville and Washington to keep them in the middle of the playoff picture.

New York, entering Sunday’s action, is tied with Philadelphia (8-4) atop the NFC East, although the Eagles won the first matchup between the teams, and is battling New Orleans (9-3), Green Bay (8-4) and Tampa Bay (7-5) for two wild-card berths.

After the Minnesota game, New York has critical games with Philadelphia and at Green Bay before concluding the season in Washington. The Eagles conclude their season with Dallas this week, New York, Minnesota and Dallas again.

The Giants better not get caught looking ahead, especially since Minnesota has dominated the recent series between the two.

"[The Vikings] kind of took advantage of us," cornerback Terrell Thomas told the New York Daily News. "We were low in numbers and they were trying to just beat us in the ground. We'll remember that. We don't care for it, but in the back of our mind, we're going to take that up there."

New Coach, New Results

Minnesota is 2-0 under interim coach Leslie Frazier thanks to an improved running game and a rejuvenated pass rush. After coming up with just six sacks in their first seven games, the Vikings have gotten to opposing quarterbacks 16 times in the past five games, with defensive end Jared Allen recording 7.5 sacks.

Minnesota beat Buffalo 38-14 last week as Adrian Peterson rushed for 107 yards and three touchdowns for the fourth time in his career. Peterson leads the

Trends

The Giants are 5-1 in their last six road games against teams with losing records and they’re 10-3 in their last 13 games as road favorites.

Minnesota is 0-5 ATS in its last five games against teams with winning records and 0-6 ATS in its last six games as an underdog.

The over is 8-1-1 in the Giants’ last 10 games following an ATS win but the under is 9-4 in the Vikings’ last 13 games following a straight up win.

MNF Doubleheader
By Kevin Rogers

The Ravens seem like the team lost in the upper-tier of the AFC as Baltimore tries to grab a road victory at Houston on Monday night. John Harbaugh's club looks to rebound after squandering a late lead against Pittsburgh last Sunday, while battling a Houston squad that has been off since last Thursday's setback at Philadelphia.

The race for home-field advantage in the AFC has gotten down to four teams between the Patriots, Steelers, Jets, and Ravens. Baltimore likely will be playing in the first round of the playoffs as they enter Monday's contest at 8-4 following the 13-10 home loss to Pittsburgh as three-point favorites. Troy Polamalu's forced fumble in the final minutes of regulation set up the go-ahead touchdown for the Steelers, avoiding a season sweep to the Ravens.

Baltimore's defense has played extremely well over the last five weeks, allowing 13 points or less four times. The lone hiccup came in the last-minute 26-21 defeat at Atlanta in mid-November, the fourth time this season the Ravens have lost a game when leading in the final quarter. The running game will have to get back on track after getting held to just 43 yards against the Steelers, but the shoddy Texans' defense has seen success on the ground.

Houston is allowing 26.8 ppg (27th in league), while giving up a league-worst 287 yards/game through the air. The rushing defense has held its own by limiting opponents to 101.4 yards/game on the ground, which is tied for 10th in the league with San Francisco. The Texans blew a 24-20 lead in a 34-24 loss at Philadelphia, failing to cover as 8 ½-point underdogs. Michael Vick rushed for the go-ahead touchdown, while throwing for the clinching score in the final minutes, capping off a 302-yard effort through the air.

The Texans have not been able to find their way after a 4-2 start, losing five of six games since their bye week. Houston hasn't benefited bettors in this cold stretch by covering just twice against the Jets and Titans. The lone victory for Gary Kubiak's club was a 20-0 shutout of Tennessee, who has dropped six straight games since a 5-2 beginning to the season.

The Ravens own a 3-5 ATS mark as a favorite this season, while Baltimore has split a pair of games when laying points on the road. The Bengals upended the Ravens in Week 2 as 2½-point underdogs, 15-10, while Baltimore knocked off Carolina, 37-13 in Week 13 as 13-point 'chalk.' Baltimore is riding a two-game 'over' streak on the road after cashing the 'under' in its first four games on the highway.

Houston has cashed the 'over' in four of the previous five contests, while allowing 29 points or more in seven of the past eight games. In games with the total listed at 46 or below, the Texans are 4-1 to the 'over' this season, as the blanking of Tennessee accounted for the only 'under.'

The last time these teams met came back in 2008 when the Ravens blew out the Texans at Reliant Stadium, 41-13. The game was moved from Week 2 to Week 10 due to the impact of Hurricane Ike in early September, kicking Houston out of its stadium for the first month of the season. Baltimore scored 22 points in the final quarter to easily cover as 2 ½-point road underdogs as Willis McGahee rushed for two touchdowns.

Entering Sunday night's game, teams that played on Thursdays this season own a 6-0 ATS mark the following week. That excludes the Jets-Patriots and Saints-Bengals games from last week, as all four teams played with the same amount of rest.

The Ravens are listed as a three-point road favorite in most spots, while the total is set between 45 ½ and 46. The game will kick off at 8:30 PM EDT from Reliant Stadium and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Giants vs. Vikings

After the horrible weather in the Midwest diverted the Giants to Kansas City on Saturday, New York and Minnesota were unable to play on Sunday thanks to damage done to the Metrodome roof. The NFL decided to move the game to Ford Field in Detroit on Monday night as both teams will have to adjust on the fly for this important contest.

The concerns are different on both sides as the Giants are right in the mix of the NFC East race with a rematch against the Eagles coming next Sunday. On the flip side, the Vikings are pretty much done in the playoff race at 5-7, but Brett Favre's consecutive starts streak is still a major headline for Minnesota.

The Giants have won consecutive games following a two-game losing streak to the Eagles and Cowboys to move to 8-4 on the season. The defense has stepped up the last two weeks by limiting Jacksonville and Washington to 27 combined points after giving up 60 points in the two previous losses.

The Vikings are 2-0 since the firing of Brad Childress with wins over the Redskins and Bills. Favre threw only one pass in the blowout victory over Buffalo, as Tarvaris Jackson tossed a pair of touchdowns and three interceptions in the 38-7 drubbing of the Bills. The consecutive starts streak sits at 297 for Favre, who is a game-time decision on Monday night.

Minnesota owns an 0-7 ATS mark against teams that are .500 or better, including loss at the Packers, Jets, Patriots, and Saints. The Giants have been favored once on the road, as New York took care of business in a 41-7 beatdown of Seattle as seven-point favorites.

There is revenge on the mind of the Giants as they were blown out by the Vikings, 44-7 in the final game of last season. New York sits as four-point favorites in this neutral-site contest, while the total is set at 43½.

vegasinsider.com

Tips and Trends

New York Giants at Minnesota Vikings

GIANTS: (-4, O/U 43.5) New York used their home field advantage to the best of their abilities, as they beat Jacksonville and Washington over their past 2 games. The Giants are 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS overall this season. New York is 3-2 both SU and ATS on the road this year, the same exact result in each exact contest both SU and ATS. New York is 2-1 ATS as a favorite of less than a TD this year. The Giants are averaging 25.7 PPG this year, 5th best in the NFL. QB Eli Manning has thrown for nearly 3,000 YDS this year, while completing better than 64% of his passes. Manning also has 23 TD's against 17 INT's this season. The Giants have plenty of revenge tonight, as they lost 7-44 SU in their last game against Minnesota. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. New York is 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games. The Giants are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 Monday games. New York is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played in December. The Giants are 23-10 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU win. New York is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Giants are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.

Giants are 10-3 ATS last 13 games as a road favorite.
Over is 7-0 last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - WR Hakeem Nicks (leg) is probable.

Projected Score: 21 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

VIKINGS: Minnesota has won their past 2 games, all since the firing of former head coach Brad Childress. The Vikings are finally playing up to their elite talent level. Minnesota is 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS overall this season. Minnesota is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS at home this year. Tonight will be the 2nd time this year that Minnesota will be the listed home underdog. The 2 biggest concerns for the Vikings tonight is whether or not playing at home in a different environment will hurt this team, and whether or not QB Brett Favre starts yet again. RB Adrian Peterson has rushed for 1,123 YDS and 11 TD's this year. Defensively, Minnesota has allowed 21.1 PPG. However, over the past 2 weeks the Vikings have allowed just 27 PTS combined. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games. The Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 Monday games. Minnesota is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games played in December. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC. The Vikings are 0-5 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Vikings are 0-6 ATS last 6 games as an underdog.
Under is 9-4 last 13 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - RB Adrian Peterson (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 17

Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans

RAVENS: (-3, O/U 46) Baltimore expects to have far more success offensively tonight, as they don't have to face Pittsburgh. The Ravens lost a hard fought battle last week to the Steelers. That loss put Baltimore at 8-4 SU, and leaves them battling for a Wild Card berth into the playoffs in the AFC. The Ravens are just 5-6-1 ATS overall this season, including 3-2-1 ATS on the road. Baltimore is averaging 21.7 PPG, right in the middle of the pack offensively in the NFL. The Ravens have the skill position players in place to have a dynamic offense. RB Ray Rice, WR Anquan Boldin, and QB Joe Flacco are all potential Pro Bowl players. The Ravens continue to excel on defense, where they are among the NFL elite. Baltimore is allowing just 16.8 PPG this year, 4th best in the NFL. The Ravens have held each of their past 3 opponents to 13 PTS or fewer. The Ravens are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. Baltimore is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games on grass. The Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. Baltimore is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Ravens are 4-1 ATS last 5 Monday games overall.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games as a road favorite.

Key Injuries - TE Todd Heap (hamstring) is out.

Projected Score: 24

TEXANS: Houston has lost 4 of their past 5 games, all but ending any postseason chances they had. Houston is 5-7 both SU and ATS overall this season. The Texans are 1-1 both SU and ATS as the listed home underdog this year. QB Matt Schaub has thrown for more than 3,000 YDS this season, including 17 TD's. RB Arian Foster leads the NFL in rushing with 1,230 YDS this year with 13 TD's. WR Andre Johnson has caught 71 passes for more than 1,000 YDS this year. As great as the Texans offense is, their defense is another matter. Houston is giving up 26.8 PPG and 388 YPG this year, 6th and 4th worst in the NFL respectively. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Houston is 2-5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Texans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Texans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Houston is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games. The Texans are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games played on grass.

Texans are 8-3 ATS last 11 games as a home underdog.
Under is 4-1 last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record.

Key injuries - DE Mario Williams (hernia) is probable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)