NEW ORLEANS (10 - 4) at ATLANTA (12 - 2)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
ATLANTA is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-1 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing Atlanta
New Orleans is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Atlanta is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games when playing New Orleans
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA
NEW ORLEANS: 8-0 ATS off a road loss
ATLANTA: 9-1 Over if total is 42.5 and 49
Tech Trends - Week 16
By Bruce Marshall
NEW ORLEANS at ATLANTA... Falcons on brink of clinching NFC South, and it will be hard for NO to bypass Atlanta in NFC South, even if it wins this game. Atlanta has won SU last 8 TY and covered last 6. Atlanta 19-3 SU at Georgia Dome since Mike Smith arrived in ‘08. Saints just 2-8 vs. line last 10 as visitor, and note Falcs 4-1 vs. line last 5 in series. Meanwhile, Saints only 4-5-1 last 9 as dog. "Overs" 5-1 last 6 in series. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Falcons, based on "totals" and team trends.
Week 16 Games
Saints (10-4) @ Falcons (12-2) - Defending champs have four losses; they were -2/-3/-4/-2 in turnovers in those games. Atlanta (+4) upset Saints 27-24 in Week 3, running ball for 202 yards, but allowing 8.9 yards/pass attempt; underrated Falcons won last eight games, covered last six- they just won/covered three in row on road, not easy to do. Atlanta is 6-0 at home, 4-2 as home favorite, winning home tilts by 34-2-7-6-5-3 points. Saints had 6-game win streak snapped last week, but they’ve also allowed 27+ points in three of last four games; they’re 5-2 on road. Falcons haven’t lost a fumble in their last seven games. Over is 7-2 in last nine Falcon games, 4-1 in last five Saint tilts. Home team is just 1-8 vs. spread in NFC south divisional games, with home favorites 1-4.
Saints, Falcons end Monday Night Football betting slate
By: Willie Bee
Monday Night Football's 16-week slate of broadcasts have produced a few routs, a couple of stinker matchups and one game that wasn't even on the schedule or played at its original site. The season wraps up with a bang this Monday with a battle of NFC South rivals going at it in Atlanta where the Falcons host the New Orleans Saints (5:30 p.m. PT, ESPN).
Atlanta can sew up the division title and guarantee itself home-field advantage in the NFC postseason with a win over the defending champion Saints. New Orleans still has designs on both the division and home-field through the playoffs, but will need some help even with a win over the Falcons in this clash.
The Falcons are giving up 2½ at most NFL betting shops entering the weekend. Monday night's total is 48½ at Bookmaker.com, up a point from the opener.
Matt RyanNo team has ever won back-to-back NFC South crowns. Atlanta's two-game lead over New Orleans entering play Monday suggests that trend will continue. The Falcons (12-2 straight up, 10-4 against the spread) are working on an eight-game win streak and are a perfect 6-0 on the Georgia Dome turf this campaign.
You have to go back to Nov. 16, 2008 to find the last time the Georgians fell on this field with Matt Ryan as their quarterback. A 24-20 loss to Denver as seven-point favorites that day remains Ryan's only blemish as a pro starter in front of the home crowd. He hasn't done too shabby on the road this year either.
Atlanta has been away from the friendly confines of its dome for three weeks, registering wins in Tampa Bay (28-24), at Carolina (31-10) and last week in Seattle (34-18). Ryan had his fourth 3-TD performance through the air this season in the triumph over the Seahawks, completing 20-of-35 for 174 yards, but did toss his fourth interception during the stretch away from Atlanta. His last INT in the Georgia Dome was a Week 7, 39-32 win against the Bengals.
The current eight-game win streak includes six consecutive spread victories as well. Atlanta backers are up 5.6 units so far, second-best on the NFL odds list behind Detroit's 6.7 profit.
New Orleans (10-4 SU, 6-8 ATS) saw its six-game winning stretch snapped in Week 15 with a 30-24 loss at Baltimore. The Ravens, two-point chalk at M&T Bank Stadium, rode the legs and hands of Ray Rice to victory. The third-year back out of Rutgers scored twice, ran for 153 yards and collected 80 more through the air on five receptions.
The loss was only the second of the season on the road by the Saints, the other a Week 5 upset at the hands of the Cardinals. However, their 5-2 mark away from Louisiana is tempered by a 2-5 record versus the number.
New Orleans is also 5-2 at home where they've cashed six of seven times. The lone spread loss came to the Falcons in a Week 3 matchup. Favored by a field goal, the Saints instead lost by a field goal in overtime, 27-24. And it was a missed chip shot in OT by New Orleans kicker Garrett Hartley that kept the Cajuns out of the win column. Hartley didn't play in the next two New Orleans games, replaced by 46-year-old kicking coach John Carney in Weeks 4 and 5. Hartley has since returned to hit 13-of-15 three-pointers and all 30 extra points.
That win was the third consecutive time Falcons backers cashed in this series, fourth in the last five meetings. The 'over' is on a 5-1 series run, and both squads have gone that way this season with the Saints 8-6 to the high side and Atlanta 9-4-1.
When I said the Saints would still need help to take the NFC South even with a win in this one, I should've said they need big help. Enormous, gigantic help, as in the form of an incredible upset when the Falcons host the Carolina Panthers in Week 17. The Saints will also be on their home turf to close the regular season, hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both games are slated for 10 a.m. PT kicks.
Saints at Falcons: What Bettors Need to Know
By Steve Merril
CURRENT ODDS
The Falcons opened as 2-point home favorites and the line has since risen to -2.5 in most locations as 53 percent of the public is supporting Atlanta according to the Covers.com consensus.
The total opened at 47.5 total points and has since risen to 49 points as 75 percent of the public favors the over according to the Covers.com consensus. The weather will not be an issue since this game is being played inside the Georgia Dome.
INJURY REPORT
These two teams enter with a combined 22-6 SU record this season because both have been able to stay healthy. Atlanta will have all of its key players ready for Monday night, while New Orleans will also have the majority of its lineup.
New Orleans’ defensive tackle Anthony Hargrove (knee) and cornerback Jabari Greer (knee) are both probable, along with wide receivers Courtney Roby (head) and Robert Meachem (toe). Running back Christopher Ivory (hamstring) is questionable, while tight end David Thomas (knee) is doubtful.
BREESY TIME
New Orleans quarterback Drew Brees has been one of the best in the NFL since signing with the Saints back in 2006. He’s had monster games against just about every team in the league, but he has had a collection of big-time performances against the Falcons, a team the Saints play twice a year in the NFC South.
In his nine career starts against the Falcons as a Saint, Brees has averaged 301 passing yards per game and he has thrown at least two touchdown passes eight times. He’s thrown for more than 300 yards five times, including a 365-yard, three-touchdown performance in the Falcons' 27-24 overtime victory in New Orleans back on September 26th.
”They do a great job and Drew is as good as any quarterback in the league in terms of pre-snap reads to identify what you’re trying to do,” Atlanta head coach Mike Smith said. “It’s going to be important for us as a team to make sure that we can get some pre-snap tips on what they’re trying to do as well.”
RODDY & TWITTER
Atlanta wide receiver Roddy White took to Twitter to wage battle with former NFL quarterback and current ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer. On an NFL segment on ESPN, Dilfer compared the Falcons to the 2003 Kansas City Chiefs who went 13-3 and then lost in the first-round of the playoffs.
Dilfer said the Falcons “are not indestructible” at home and he went on to say the Saints could win Monday night’s game and then come back and beat the Falcons again in the playoffs in the Georgia Dome.
Roddy White fired back on Twitter: “No chance in hell the ‘Aints come into the dome and win once Trent Dilfer.” He followed that up with this. “The ‘Aints fans are so rude… we shall see Monday night.” And then this: “Y’all [New Orleans] fans keep talking making it worst for those guys that got to guard me cause y’all don’t. LOL”
Numerous Saints players responded to his tweets, but the best was this from Reggie Bush who said: “Wondering how @roddywhitetv has the audacity to call us ‘AINTS.” And he attached a photo of the Saints’ Super Bowl ring from last year.
PERFECT PAIR
Since head coach Sean Payton and quarterback Drew Brees have worked together, they’ve put-up some incredible offensive numbers.
The duo started together in New Orleans back in 2006, and since then, they’ve won 48 games while amassing over 22,000 passing yards. They reached the pinnacle last year when the Saints beat the Colts in the Super Bowl.
Payton has always been a master play caller from his days under Bill Parcells with the Giants and Cowboys. He is phenomenal at structuring a game plan and then being aggressive once the game gets underway.
And Payton’s ability to keep defenses off balance hasn’t gone unnoticed, especially by Atlanta head coach Mike Smith.
”Head coach Sean Payton is one of the most innovative offensive coaches in terms of how he packages his game plan together,” Smith said. “He forces you to use a lot of brain power, especially in the first 15 to 20 plays with the personnel groupings, and it’s very high tempo. It’s going to be a big challenge for our team.”
TRENDS
The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Saints and the over is 5-1 in these two clubs’ last six meetings.
The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games against teams with winning records.
The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last six games overall.
The under is 8-1 in the Saints’ last eight games against NFC South opponents.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 16
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
Why Saints cover: Drew Brees has thrown for 1,256 yards with 13 touchdowns and only one interception in his last four Monday Night games.
Why Falcons cover: The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Falcons. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is 19-1 in 20 career starts at home.
Gridiron Trends - Week 16
By Vince Akins
Saints at Falcons - The Saints are 7-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since November 20, 2005 as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Saints are 8-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since November 25, 2007 after a straight up loss on the road. The Saints are 6-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since November 25, 2007 after playing as a dog. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since October 09, 2005 when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks. The Saints are 8-0 OU (7.1 ppg) since November 08, 1998 as a road dog after a straight up loss on the road. The Falcons are 0-8-1 OU (-8.8 ppg) since October 13, 1996 within 3 of pick at home when their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game.
Tips and Trends
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
SAINTS: New Orleans is 10-4 SU and 6-8 ATS this season, as they are competing for a playoff berth. The Saints have already lost to the Falcons once this year, so there is plenty of revenge at stake here tonight. New Orleans had won 6 consecutive games before losing last week in Baltimore. The Saints are 5-2 SU and 2-5 ATS in road games this season. New Orleans will be playing just their 2nd game of the season as the listed underdog tonight, with last week's game being the 1st. QB Drew Brees has thrown for more than 4,100 YDS and 31 TD's this year. Brees has thrown TD passes to 9 different receivers this season. The Saints are averaging 25.3 PPG this year, 7th best in the NFL. Defensively, New Orleans is allowing 19.3 PPG, 9th best in the league. The Saints are 4-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC. The Saints are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games following a SU loss. New Orleans is 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games played on fieldturf. The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games overall. The Saints are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Saints are 1-7 ATS last 8 games played in December.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games following a SU loss.
Key Injuries - RB Chris Ivory (hamstring) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24
FALCONS: (-2, O/U 47.5) No team in football has a better record than the Atlanta. The Falcons are 12-2 SU this season, tied with New England for the best record in the NFL. While the Patriots get all the credit, Atlanta keeps flying under the radar. Perhaps that's why this Falcons team is also 10-4 ATS this year, one of the most profitable teams in the league this season. Atlanta is 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS at home this year. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS as the listed favorite of less than a TD this year. QB Matt Ryan is the unquestioned leader of this Falcons team, as he's thrown for more than 3,300 YDS and 25 TD's this year. RB Michael Turner has rushed for more than 1,250 YDS and 11 TD's this season. WR Roddy White has nearly 1,300 receiving YDS and 8 TD's this year to cap off an offensive trio of stars. The Falcons are allowing 18.6 PPG this year, tied for 6th best in the NFL. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite up to a field goal. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games played in December. Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games played on fieldturf. Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite.
Falcons are 6-0 ATS last 6 games following a SU win.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - None Reported.
Projected Score: 30 (OVER-Total of the Day)
MNF - Saints at Falcons
By Kevin Rogers
The final Monday Night game of the regular season takes place at the Georgia Dome as the Falcons look to grab home-field advantage in the playoffs for the first time in franchise history. The only thing standing in their way is the defending Super Bowl champion Saints, who need a win themselves to get back to the postseason.
Atlanta has been terrific at home with Matt Ryan at quarterback since the Falcons drafted him in 2008. The Falcons own a 19-1 SU and 14-6 ATS mark in games that Ryan has started at the Georgia Dome, including a 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS ledger this season. Atlanta has won eight straight games overall, while coming off a perfect 3-0 road sweep at Carolina, Tampa Bay, and Seattle.
Past the Falcons' impressive 12-2 record, Atlanta has helped backers this season with six consecutive covers and a 10-4 ATS mark. The offensive numbers are strong for Mike Smith's club, who rank fifth in the NFL by scoring 26.4 ppg. Michael Turner is fifth in the league in rushing, while Roddy White enters the weekend leading the NFL in receiving yards with 1284 yards.
The Saints rolled through NFC last season en route to their first-ever Super Bowl title, but New Orleans may have to settle for a road game in the Wild Card round. Sean Payton's club had a six-game winning streak halted in a 30-24 loss at Baltimore last week, further distancing the Saints from the Falcons with two games remaining. However, New Orleans has still been a strong road team 5-2 SU mark, but has covered only twice on the highway (each against division foes).
New Orleans had a bit of a Super Bowl hangover through the first seven weeks of the season with a surprising 4-3 start, capped off by a 30-17 drubbing at the hands of the Browns as 12-point home favorites. The offense has picked things up since that defeat by scoring at least 30 points in five games, but the defense has allowed at least 27 points in three of the previous four contests.
The Falcons will be going for the season sweep of their division rivals on Monday night after Atlanta shocked New Orleans at the Superdome, 27-24 in overtime back in Week 3. This back-and-forth affair will go down as one of the most exciting games of the season, as Matt Bryant's 46-yard field goal with less than two minutes left in overtime sealed the win. Saints' kicker Garrett Hartley missed a chip-shot field goal which would have given New Orleans a 3-0 start, but turned into a eventual tiebreaking loss within the division race months later.
The Saints have won three of the last four meetings at the Georgia Dome, including a 26-23 victory as 10-point favorites last December. However, Ryan and Turner sat out that loss with injuries as the Falcons fought valiantly to grab the underdog cover. The Falcons knocked off the Saints at home in Ryan's rookie season of 2008 by a 34-22 count, despite 422 passing yards from Drew Brees.
New Orleans has turned into a nice 'over' play over the last five weeks by cashing four times. The lone 'under' came three points short in a 31-13 victory over the Rams in Week 14, as that game was on pace to go 'over' if it wasn't for several botched opportunities. The 'over' is hitting at a nice rate for the Falcons as well, going 7-1-1 the last nine games, including in the Week 15 victory at Seattle.
The Falcons are listed as 2½-point favorites at most spots, but the number is slowly dipping down to two with late action on the Saints. The total is set at 49 at a majority of sportsbooks, as the game kicks off at 8:30 PM EDT and will be televised nationally on ESPN.
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:
So much for bad weather slowing down the Bears, who hit another 'over' against the Jets on Sunday. That's three 'overs' in inclement weather for Chicago, who also cashed the 'over' against New England and Minnesota in previous weeks. The Bears also have done enough to grab at least a first-round bye following their shootout victory over New York.
-The Patriots wrapped up home-field advantage with an easy win at Buffalo as New England improved to 17-1 against the Bills with Tom Brady under center. Since New England dumped Randy Moss after Week 4's blowout of Miami, the Pats are 10-1 SU and 7-3-1 ATS.
The Chiefs wrapped up their first division title since 2003 after thumping the Titans at home, coupled with San Diego's loss at undermanned Cincinnati. Kansas City has made significant strides this season at 10-5, but the most telling stat is the reclaimed home-field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium. Todd Haley's club is a perfect 7-0 at home as they welcome in the Raiders next Sunday.
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