MNF News and Notes Week 1

Monday Night Showdowns
By Kevin Rogers

The opening week of the NFL season concludes with a pair of AFC games on Monday night. The Chiefs host their first primetime game at Arrowhead Stadium since 2004, as Kansas City entertains reigning AFC West champion San Diego in the late kickoff. The night begins at the new Meadowlands with the Ravens trying to knock off the Jets in a battle of the last two runner-ups in the AFC.

Ravens at Jets (-2 ½, 35 ½) - 7:00 PM EST

Many eyes will be on this contest, not only because it's the first Monday Night Football game of the season, but fans are curious if the Jets can live up to the hype. Rex Ryan's club was showcased on HBO's "Hard Knocks" during training camp and wants to prove that last season's run to the AFC Title Game was no fluke. The Ravens, meanwhile, are quietly becoming a difficult team to handle on both sides of the ball after the pickups of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh to boost the receiving corps.

Baltimore looked strong in the preseason with a 3-1 SU/ATS record, as the Ravens fell in their finale at St. Louis. The defense stepped up in the three wins by limiting the opposition to 25 total points. Under John Harbaugh, the Ravens are a profitable 9-6-1 ATS as a road underdog, but lost at Green Bay on a Monday Night last season as four-point 'dogs, 27-14. Playing on the road under the Monday Night lights for the Ravens has not been something to look forward to, as Baltimore is 1-6 SU since 2005, with the lone victory coming in a 16-0 shutout at Cleveland last season.

The Jets started last season at 3-0 in Ryan's debut, but went on to lost seven of their next 11 games. New York received a huge break with Indianapolis and Cincinnati wrapping up its divisions, as the Jets knocked off each club to clinch a playoff berth. The Jets made it all the way to the AFC Championship before falling at Indianapolis, as Mark Sanchez enters his second season at quarterback. New York finished the preseason at a pedestrian 2-2 SU/ATS, with both losses coming at home to the Giants and Redskins.

Playing division opponents was an issue for Ryan's squad last season, going 2-4 SU/ATS against the AFC East. However, when the Jets faced non-divisional foes in 2009, they finished 9-4 SU/ATS. The Jets haven't hosted a Monday Night game since a 2005 loss to the Patriots, as New York is 1-4 SU/ATS the last five Monday Night contests.

Each team has won their last two season openers, while Baltimore has cashed the 'over' in Harbaugh's two road series openers at Pittsburgh ('08) and San Diego ('09). These two clubs are meeting in the regular season for the first since 2007 when the Ravens failed to cover as 9 ½-point home 'chalk' in a 20-13 victory.

Chargers (-4 ½, 45) at Chiefs - 10:15 PM EST

These AFC West rivals hook up in Western Missouri as San Diego moves forward this season without several vital pieces of last season's 13-3 squad. Gone are LaDainian Tomlinson and Antonio Cromartie, while top receiver Vincent Jackson starts a three-game suspension along with a holdout. The Chiefs, meanwhile, look to reclaim the competitive days of 2003 when Kansas City was the top-seed in the AFC, as this club has won 10 games combined over the last three seasons.

San Diego began last season at 2-3, but Norv Turner's team rattled off 11 consecutive wins to clinch their fourth straight AFC West title. The season ended in disappointment when the upstart Jets traveled to Southern California and eliminated the Bolts, 17-14 in the second round of the playoffs. The Chargers do have it easy with six games every season against the Chiefs, Broncos, and Raiders, as San Diego is 20-4 SU and 15-8-1 ATS versus division foes since 2006. San Diego dominated Kansas City twice last season, outscoring the Chiefs, 80-21 in a pair of easy victories.

Todd Haley enters his second season as the head coach in Kansas City, as the team bolstered its coaching staff with the hiring of Charlie Weis as the offensive coordinator and Romeo Crennel to anchor the defense. Arrowhead Stadium used to be a venue in which the opposition feared, but that has not been the case over the last three seasons. Backing the Chiefs at home is a risky proposition for bettors, as Kansas City owns a 6-17-1 ATS mark since 2007, including only four SU wins. The Chiefs have not won a season opener since Dick Vermeil coached in 2005, a span of four games.

The Chargers needed a last-minute rally to knock off the Raiders in last season's Monday Night opener, 24-20 as 10 ½-point road favorites. San Diego has won each of the last three meetings at Arrowhead, with Kansas City's last home win in this series coming in 2006.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

In 2008, the 'over' hit in 13 of 17 Monday Night games, making it incredibly fun and profitable for the betting public. Things evened out a bit after a hot 'over' start last season, finishing 10-7 to the 'over.' Here is an interesting number regarding 'overs' the last two seasons: The 'over' is 16-1-1 the first eight weeks of the last two seasons, meaning the offenses are a little ahead of the defenses early on.

Looking ahead to some of the key matchups in Week 2, the Jets stay at home to battle the Patriots, while the Ravens head to Cincinnati for an AFC North showdown. The two primetime games are very intriguing with the Manning brothers hooking up in Indianapolis on Sunday night when the Colts host the Giants. The week wraps up in San Francisco when the reigning Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints take on the upstart 49ers.

vegasinsider.com

Monday Night Football: What bettors Need to Know
By Steve Merril

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets (-2, 36)

CURRENT ODDS

The Jets opened as 3-point home favorites earlier this summer but the money came in on the Ravens. New York is between 1.5- and 2-point chalk. The over/under opened at 37.5 this summer and the bettors backed the under and bringing the total down to 36.

These are two of the favorites to win the AFC conference this season with the Ravens standing at +500 and the Jets at +600 to advance to the Super Bowl with +1000 odds for Baltimore and +1300 for New York to win Super Bowl XLV.

WEATHER REPORT

The weather forecast is calling for rain on Monday morning, however the conditions should be clear by Monday afternoon. There is only a 30 percent chance of showers by kickoff on Monday night at the New Meadowlands Stadium. Temperatures will be around 70 degrees with winds at only six mph.

NO HOLMES BUT REVIS IS BACK

The Jets will be without their top off-season acquisition as wide receiver Santonio Holmes will miss the first four games of the season. Holmes is suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

And after a 36-day holdout, the Jets finally came to terms with cornerback Darrelle Revis on a four-year $46 million dollar deal. Revis is widely regarded as the best shutdown corner in the NFL, so getting him back was a big deal for the Jets.

Revis’ agent showed up at head coach Rex Ryan’s home with Revis’ jersey before the deal was done. Ryan had this to say to the agent: "Neil, I don't want the fu**ing jersey. I want him."

STRANGE DAYS

Offense is the story in Baltimore these days, not defense.

The Ravens have a young quarterback (Joe Flacco) with a big arm and playoff wins under his be< they’ve got a hybrid tailback (Ray Rice), who’s dangerous running between the tackles and catching the ball in the flat; with the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Anquan Boldin, they have easily their deepest and most talented group of receivers in the franchise’s history.

“I think [our] will offense will be the No. 1 offense,” veteran wideout Derrick Mason told the Baltimore Sun.

THEY TALK THE TALK BUT...

No team has been hyped more this offseason than the New York Jets. Head coach Rex Ryan oozes with confidence and told anyone who’d listen that his group is primed to win the Super Bowl.

“Is it going to be easy? Hell no,” Ryan told the New York Daily News. “There’s no guarantee that this is going to happen. But I sense it’s going to happen. I really believe that we’re going to do this thing. In my heart, I think this is the time.”

Ray Lewis doesn’t agree with his former defensive coordinator’s belief. The Ravens middle linebacker expressed his distaste for all the attention the Jets are getting.

"We're talking about the Jets like we're talking about the (New Orleans) Saints," Lewis told the Newark Star-Ledger. "Those are the only people that can be dethroned: Drew Brees and the Saints. Not Mark Sanchez and the Jets."

The Jets didn’t look too good in the preseason, particularly Mark Sanchez. But the sophomore quarterback tells reporters that he and his teammates aren’t concerned about their struggles in August.

"I don't think we're too worried about it," he told the Bergen Record. "We're confident. We're excited about this next challenge and we know that it's time to get going."

San Diego Chargers (-4.5, 44.5) at Kansas City Chiefs

CURRENT ODDS

The Chargers opened as 5.5-point road favorites earlier this summer and the line briefly touched -6 before moving back down to -4.5. The over/under line has seen very little action this summer with the line fluctuating from 45 down to 44.5 total points.

The Chargers are a heavy -300 favorite to win the AFC West division this season, while the Chiefs are a +700 long shot. Oddsmakers are giving the Chargers (-500) an 85 percent chance of making the playoffs for a fifth straight season, while the Chiefs have only a 20 percent chance (+350) of making a postseason appearance for the first time since the 2006 season.

WEATHER REPORT

There is only a 30 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms on Monday night at Arrowhead Stadium with a temperature of 75 degrees and winds at only nine mph.

MATTHEWS EXPRESS

The Chargers let LaDainian Tomlinson go (he’s with the Jets now) and they used their first-round draft pick on running back Ryan Mathews from Fresno State.

Mathews gained 146 yards on 34 carries in the preseason. He averaged an impressive 4.3-yard per rush, and according to Chargers head coach Norv Turner, Mathews will be featured in Monday night’s game.

“I want Ryan to have an opportunity to have an impact on this game,” Turner said. “So he’s going to get the ball. I think in one of those (preseason) halves he had 11 carries. I would think he’s going to get double-digit touches in each half (against the Chiefs). I’d like to see that happen.”

CASSEL IS THE CHIEF QUESTION MARK

Chiefs’ quarterback Matt Cassel parlayed his solid season in New England to a big paycheck in Kansas City last year. Cassel was given a free pass last season as he and the Chiefs were just beginning a big rebuilding project.

But after a dismal preseason for Cassel, he has a lot of doubters out there, including former NFL quarterback and current CBS analyst Rich Gannon.

“There’s a sense of urgency. I think he realizes this is an important year,” Gannon says. “I’m just trying to be realistic. I think he’s a fine player. Do I think he’s a Pro Bowl-caliber player right now? Well, no. He’s got to get better. As you look at him in the preseason, it’s still a work in progress.”

Keep this little quote in mind as it may be a nice motivator for Cassel if Gannon is the commentator for one of his games later this season.

BIG NAMES MISSING FOR THE BOLTS

Tomlinson isn’t the only familiar face who won’t be in uniform for the Chargers Monday night. Leading receiver Vincent Jackson and starting left tackle Marcus McNeill are both in conflicts with team management over their contract situations and won’t suit up against the Chiefs.

Former Pro Bowl outside linebacker Shawne Merriman is doubtful for Monday’s game because of injury. Merriman was seen in a protective boot over the weekend.

“It’s just to take the pressure off (the injured Achilles),” head coach Norv Turner told the San Diego Union-Tribune. “It’s not an exact science. I think he’s doing better and he’s done more each day. He’s shown great improvement.”

Tips and Trends

Baltimore Ravens at New York Jets

RAVENS: Baltimore is a team that's flying under the radar, so what better opportunity to state their dominance than against a former coach in front of a national audience? Baltimore is always going to be a defensive team first, but they've added some offensive talent in the offseason. QB Joe Flacco is expected to make the step up to elite status this year, and WR acquisitions of Anquan Boldin and T.J. Houshmandzadeh are sure to help. Include these receiving options with the duel threat of RB Ray Rice, and you have an offense that can be dynamic. The Ravens finally have an offense to match their world class defense, and a very balanced offense at that. The Ravens defensive leader will always be LB Ray Lewis, for as long as he plays. Lewis will try to rally the troops to beat their former coach. Surprisingly, Baltimore is a team that typically plays to the over when they are on Monday Night Football. Baltimore hasn't received the same amount of press that the Jets have this offseason, but the Ravens are anxious to prove they made the better transactions overall.

Ravens are 6-0 ATS last 6 games in September.
Over is 8-3 last 11 Monday games.

Key Injuries - S Ed Reed (hip) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)

JETS: (-2, O/U 36.5) The moment is finally here, as the "Hard Knocks" team finally takes the field when it matters. There might not be another team in the NFL that made more news in the offseason than the New York Jets. From LaDanian Tomlinson to Darrelle Revis to Coach Rex Ryan, New York is the team that everyone has an opinion of whether it's out of love or spite. Coach Ryan would like nothing more that to beat the team that made him famous, so this game is clearly going to be played with passion. New York originally opened up as a 3 point home favorite, but this line is dropping. QB Mark Sanchez will be expected to manage a clean game, as he can ill afford to have any costly turnovers against this Ravens defense. The AFC East projects to be one of the toughest divisions in football, so the Jets need to pick up every home win they can. Defensively, New York figures to be far better with Revis playing and under contract. The Jets are 5-2-1 ATS in their past 8 Week 1 games.

Jets are 4-0 ATS last 4 games in September.
Over is 5-1 last 6 Monday games.

Key Injuries - CB Darrelle Revis (contract) is probable.

Projected Score: 17

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs

CHARGERS: (-5, O/U 44.5) San Diego appears to be making their final go at a Super Bowl. Despite the team getting older, as well as some key holdouts, San Diego feels that this might be their best chance of making the Super Bowl a reality. The Chargers faithful is frustrated due to the holdouts of both Marcus McNeil and Vincent Jackson. Despite ending their working relationship with LaDanian Tomlinson, the Chargers drafted RB Ryan Matthews. Matthews is the odds on favorite to win Rookie of the Year, and will be counted on to produce from the start for the Chargers. QB Phillip Rivers finally has his opportunity to be the clear cut leader of his football team. Rivers has spent all offseason becoming the leader necessary of any successful football team. TE Antonio Gates will be counted on to fill the shoes of holdout WR Vincent Jackson. While the Chargers offense projects to be dynamic yet again, the defense has huge question marks. Chief among them is the health of LB Shawne Merriman. The Chargers are -300 to win the AFC West this year, but this is a team that's far from perfect. San Diego is 24-10-4 in their last 38 AFC West games.

Chargers are 5-1 ATS last 6 road games.
Over is 9-1 last 10 games in September.

Key Injuries - LB Shawne Merriman (achilles) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

CHIEFS: Kansas City is a team that is going through a rebuilding stage, and they are doing it with an infusion of young talent. The Chiefs have made enough additions in the skill department to make for a dangerous team. Playing in Kansas City is never easy, so homefield advantage is likely to aid in the development of this young team. QB Matt Cassel needs to improve on not only his play on the field, but also as the leader of this young team. Cassel is being paid as a franchise player, but Kansas City simply hasn't received the production typical of a franchise player. RB Jamaal Charles is a young player on the rise, as he's expected to get the ball early and often tonight to keep the high powered Chargers offense off the field. Besides Charles, the Chiefs are likely to target WR Dwayne Bowe. Bowe is a physical WR that simply overpowers most defensive backs. The biggest thing Kansas City has struggled with over the past year is their offense within the red zone. Time and time again the Chiefs have settled for field goals as opposed to TD's. Kansas City is +700 to win the AFC West this year, so clearly oddsmakers agree that this is yet another rebuilding year for Kansas City.

Chiefs are 7-18-1 ATS last 26 home games.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games in Week 1.

Key Injuries - LB Tamba Hali (foot) is questionable.

Projected Score: 14

MNF Preview

Ravens @ Jets - Baltimore won last five series games, with four of five wins by 7+ points; Coach Ryan faces his old team as Jets play first game in new stadium- this is first time since ’04 Jets opened season at home (5-13 in last 18 home openers). Baltimore won three of last four road openers, but is 2-9 in first road game last 11 years. Ravens are 11-6-1 as dog of 3 or less points since ’06. Jets are 6-11-1 vs spread as home favorite last three years. Under is 9-3 in Ravens’ last dozen openers, 4-1 in Jets’ last five. Not sure if Revis will be in top shape after protracted holdout; will Baltimore attack him?

Chargers @ Chiefs - San Diego started 2-3 four of last five years, so they're never solid choice this early in year (3-4 in last seven openers), but they won five in row in this series, crushing KC 37-7/43-14 in LY's meetings. Bolts won last three visits here, by 24-10/22-21/37-7 scores. Chiefs lost its opener four years in row, scoring 7.8 ppg; they're 3-7 in last ten home openers. Under is 16-1-2 in KC's last 19 home openers, with last eight staying under. Chargers are 9-4 as road favorite in divisional games since 2004. Chiefs are 13-25-1 as a single digit underdog since '05, but 7-3-1 in last 11 as divisional home dog.