GREEN BAY (2 - 0) at CHICAGO (2 - 0)
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 127-94 ATS (+23.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Green Bay's last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay
GREEN BAY at CHICAGO
GREEN BAY: 13-3 ATS off cover as DD favorite
CHICAGO: 0-4 ATS vs. Green Bay
GREEN BAY at CHICAGO… Pack has covered the last four meetings, all of those "under" as well. Pack solid lately vs. number in almost all categories, including 37-18 overall last 54 since late ‘06, 22-8 last 30 away, 9-4 last 13 as road chalk, and 4-1 as DD chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-Pack and slight to "under," based on series and team trends.
Green Bay is 13-5-1 in the last 19 vs. Chicago
Chicago is 44-28 as home dogs since 1980
Green Bay SERIES: 4-0 L4/3-1 L4 A… SEPT: 12-1 favs 7 3 pts w/rev (1-0 this year)… 5-1 div HD's vs .500 > opp… 1-11 when O/U line is 45 > pts… SEPT: 1-10 vs opp off BB SU wins… 1-4 Game Three
Packers at Bears: What Bettors Need to Know
By Steve Merril
ODDS AND ENDS
The Packers briefly opened as a 3.5-point road favorites last week, but the majority of sportsbooks opened the line -3 where it currently stands with the juice slightly favoring Chicago.
Oddsmakers are unlikely to move off such a key number as NFL favorites win by exactly 3 points nearly 10 percent of the time. There is a chance some Green Bay money will come back in on Monday evening as 71 percent of the public is backing the Packers according to the Covers.com consensus.
The over/under line opened at 45 total points last week and has since risen to 46 in most locations. There is a chance this line will move up on Monday night as 69 percent of the public is favoring the over, according to the Covers.com consensus.
INJURY REPORT
The Packers suffered a major blow when they lost running back Ryan Grant two weeks ago. Grant led the team with 1,317 rushing yards last season and is out for the year with torn ligaments in his ankle.
Fullback Korey Hall (hip) and linebacker Brady Poppinga (knee) did not practice this week and might not play. Cornerback Brandon Underwood (shoulder) was a full participant in practice last week for the first time since he injured his shoulder in the third preseason game.
“He went through his work last week and didn’t have any setbacks,” McCarthy said, who also commented that the Packers practiced in shells on Thursday because “the medical report wasn’t where it needed to be.”
For the Bears, linebacker Lance Briggs (ankle), tackle Chris Williams (hamstring) and safety Major Wright (hamstring) missed practice. Williams and Wright are not expected to play, but Lance Briggs is listed as probable tonight. Briggs led the Bears with 118 tackles last season.
PASS IT AROUND
Green Bay has one of the best passing attacks in the NFL behind the right arm of quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who’s already thrown for 442 yards and four touchdowns this season.
Rodgers has plenty weapons at his disposal with three solid receivers options in Donald Driver, Greg Jennings and Jermichael Finley. Rodgers does a great job of spreading the ball around and he is aware he has to keep his playmakers happy by finding them when they get open.
“The biggest challenge is if there starts to be some dissension with those guys,” Rodgers said. “I just hope they would come to me first. We’ll meet that when we come to it, but I hope we don’t have to go through that.
“Obviously, they all want to make plays. I’m not going to change the way I play. I’m going to throw it to the guys who are open, and I’m going to go through my progressions. I hope they understand that.”
CHESS MATCH
The Packers play a 3-4 defense under coordinator Dom Capers and they disguise their packages very well. The cloaked schemes have helped outside linebacker Clay Matthews sack the quarterback six times in the Packers first two games this season.
The Bears and new offensive coordinator Mike Martz feel they are well prepared for Green Bay’s defense after they played the Cowboys last week and the Chargers in the preseason (both teams also run a 3-4 front seven).
"We try to have some answers for everything," Bears QB Jay Cutler said. "We've hit a few this year, we've been stumped a few times. We spread it out sometimes so if you're going to blitz us, we're going to have some hot answers for you. It's just whether or not a defense is prepared for them or not."
SPECIALS TEAMS
One of the most important parts of a football game often gets overlooked. Special teams play is a critical factor, and many times the performance by that unit directly affects the outcome of a game.
The Packers should be in good shape with their field position if Jordy Nelson keeps producing like he has been.
Nelson ranks second in the NFL in kickoff return average (31 yards per return) which is up from his 25-yard average in 2009. Because of Nelson’s returns, Green Bay is tied for second in average starting field position (35-yard line).
Special teams were a big emphasis for the Packers in the off-season, and their hard work has paid off so far.
“The best part is we haven’t even hit full stride yet,” special teams player Derrick Martin said. “Since March-April, we’ve been working on timing, getting our technique, getting our drops. It’s really been showing. We’ve been working on it all off-season. We’re just wanting to run downhill.”
TRENDS
The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the Bears and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at Soldier Field.
The under is 8-2 in the Bears last 10 games as underdogs.
Chicago is just 7-18-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
The Packers are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against NFC North opponents.
NFL Week 3 Analysis
Packers (2-0) @ Bears (2-0) - Home side won four of last five Chicago-Green Bay games; Packers are 2-3 in last five visits here, with average total in those games 34.6. Bears have six takeaways in two games (+2); when Martz offense doesn't turn ball over, they score points. Chicago is only NFL team to average 9+ yards/pass attempt in both of its first two games. Bears are 14-10 as home dog since 2002, 4-1 as divisional home dog since '04; Packers are 9-3 as a road favorite since 2007. So far this season, home underdogs in divisional games are 6-1 against the spread. Bear defense allowed 56 yards in 41 rushes in first two games this season, but their offense converted just 7 of 25 on third down.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 3
By Shawn Hartlen
Green Bay at Chicago (+3)
Why Packers cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Chicago.
Why Bears cover: Mike Martz has done wonders for Jay Cutler and Chicago's offense is third in the NFL because of it. They're defense has been fantastic as well, giving the team a chance to win on both sides of the ball.
Total (46): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
Gridiron Angles - Week 3
By Vince Akins
Packers at Bears - The Packers are 9-0-1 ATS (9.9 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a road favorite after a straight up win at home. The Packers are 7-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since November 29, 1999 as a road favorite the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers. The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 02, 2008 vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.
Tips and Trends
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
PACKERS: (-3, O/U 46) Green Bay is 2-0 both SU and ATS this season, as they've been one of the most impressive teams in the NFL this year. The Packers are coming off a 27 point blowout win over Buffalo, as the Packers offense led the way. QB Aaron Rodgers is expected to challenge for NFL MVP this year, as he's easily the franchise player for Green Bay. Rodgers was dynamic in the preseason, and he's off to another quick start this year. Rodgers has 4 TD's passes already this year, and he will look to add to that tonight on the road in front of a national audience. Rodgers and the Packers passing game is picking up the slack of a running attack that is coping with the loss of RB Ryan Grant. Defensively, the Packers are only allowing 13.5 PPG, and if that continues Green Bay very well might win another Super Bowl. KR Jordy Nelson has been an unsung hero for this Packers team, as he is averaging 31 yards per return this year which is 2nd best in the NFL. Green Bay has been dominant when playing in Chicago, going 9-2 ATS in their past 11 games at Soldier Field.
Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
Over is 25-9 in Packers last 34 games following a ATS win.
Key Injuries - T Chad Clifton (knee) is probable
Projected Score: 30 (OVER-Total of the Day)
BEARS: Chicago is off to their best start since 2006, the last time the Bears made it to the Super Bowl. Optimism is high because the Bears appear to finally have an offense. Offensive Coordinator Mike Martz has instilled an offense that is averaging 23 PPG to start the season. QB Jay Cutler looks very impressive in this offense, as he's competing nearly 70% of his passes for 650 YDS passing this season. Most importantly, Cutler has 5 TD's to only 1 INT for a QB Rating of 121.2 this year. As long as Cutler avoids the turnovers, the Bears are likely going to be in a position to win several games. Defensively, the Bears are allowing 17 PPG, and appear to be back to their hard hitting ways. This Bears defense will have quite the test tonight, as they take on one of the most prolific offenses in the NFL. The Bears are only 7-18-2 ATS in their past 27 games against teams with a winning record. Chicago has struggled with the Packers of late, going 0-4 ATS in their past 4 meetings.
Bears are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 in Bears last 7 games on grass.
Key Injuries - LB Lance Briggs (ankle) is probable.
Projected Score: 24
Green Bay at Chicago
By Chris David
Eight teams entered Week 3 with 2-0 records and four of them were handed losses on Sunday. Tonight from Soldier Field, one more club will join that group as Chicago (2-0 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) welcomes Green Bay (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) in a NFC North battle.
Most betting shops in Las Vegas had the Packers listed as the second choice to win the NFC and Super Bowl XLV behind the Saints this season, so their quick start is no surprise. However, some pundits predicted Chicago to finish last in its division. After coming off a 7-9 season, head coach Lovie Smith was considered on the hot seat and many critics believe he’s gone unless the team makes a serious run.
The Bears received a questionable win over Detroit (19-14) in Week 1 when Calvin Johnson’s late score for the Lions was reversed. Despite the lucky victory, Chicago went on the road the very next week and stunned Dallas 27-20 as a seven-point underdog. Bears quarterback Jay Cutler (649 yards, 5 TDs) seems more relaxed so far and he only has one interception through two games, after tossing 26 last year.
Defensively, Smith’s squad has also looked sharp. The unit has only allowed 289 YPG and they’ve forced six turnovers. With all due respect to the Lions and Cowboys, the Packers’ offense is averaging a league best 30.5 points per game and will be a much bigger test for the Bears tonight. Chicago picked up defensive end Julius Peppers in the offseason to bolster its pass rush but the defense only has two sacks after two games.
If that doesn’t change tonight, then we should expect Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers (443 yards, 4 TDs) to sit back and dice up the secondary. While Rodgers has been great, the ground game for the Packers has taken a hit with the loss of Ryan Grant (ankle) for the season. Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn have been part of the running back by committee approach, but it’s safe to say that Mike McCarthy’s team is a pass-first bunch. Green Bay’s offensive line has been beat up this season too, yet tackle Chad Clifton (knee) and guard Daryn Colledge (knee) are both listed as ‘probable’ according to the Pro Live Odds service from VegasInsider.com. Chicago doesn’t have any notable injuries for tonight’s affair.
For tonight, Green Bay is listed as a three-point road favorite over Chicago. Playing underdogs this season has been profitable so far and ‘chalk’ players were burned yesterday as well.
Underdogs posted a 10-5 ATS record on Sunday and that included outright home ‘dog wins by Kansas City (+3), St. Louis (+4.5) and Seattle (+4).
Can Chicago join the mix and improve to 3-0 like Pittsburgh and Kansas City? Or will the Bears get exposed and look like the Texans and Buccaneers did yesterday? We’d include the Saints and Dolphins in that mix, but that pair played decent plus they lost to legit teams in the Falcons and Jets respectively.
VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers pointed out some strong trends that could have you leaning toward the visitor tonight. “Chicago has not succeeded as an underdog off a win since 2005, going 3-13 SU and 3-10-3 ATS, including 12 consecutive SU losses. Also, Green Bay has been a strong road play inside the division under Mike McCarthy, owning a 10-2 ATS mark,” explained Rogers.
While those numbers are telling, keep in mind that Chicago has played well on MNF under Lovie, going 4-1 in five appearances. Plus, the Packers are just 3-8 in their last 11 under the MNF lights.
And if you look at this year’s Monday Night Football schedule, you’ll see that underdogs have gone 2-1 SU and 3-0 ATS this season. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 on MNF this year, but it could be 3-0 if it wasn’t for some late fireworks and conversions in last week’s battle between the Saints and 49ers (25-22).
The total for tonight is hovering between 45 and 46 and like most other primetime affairs, bettors should expect it to rise by kickoff. Green Bay has shown that it can score (34, 27) this season, but the ‘under’ has still produced a 2-0 mark. The Bears have a 1-1 total record.
Green Bay has gone 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings against Chicago, which includes last year’s sweep (21-14, 21-15). All four games went ‘under’ the number. It should also be noted that Rodgers has been the starting QB for the Packers in all four of these affairs and ironically the lone loss (17-20, OT) came in 2008 at Soldier Field, which was on a Monday as well.
Does history repeat itself tonight? Find out at 8:30 p.m. EDT on ESPN.
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