MNF News and Notes Week 6

Tech Trends - Week 6
By Bruce Marshall

TENNESSEE at JACKSONVILLE... Titans have covered 5 of last 7 in series. Del Rio 3-2 SU and vs. line TY but only 12-25 vs. number since ‘08 and 5-14 vs. spread as host that span (though 2-1 TY). Tech edge-Titans, based on series and team trends.

Gridiron Angles - Week 6
By Vince Akins

Titans at Jaguars - The Titans are 9-0 ATS (7.4 ppg) since November 21, 1999 the week after a straight up win in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The League is 10-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since September 18, 2006 within 3 of pick the week after a win when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they were behind by at least a TD at the end of the first quarter. The Jaguars are 7-0 ATS (5.9 ppg) since September 23, 2001 within 3 of pick at home when they are one game above 500. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since October 22, 2007 at home when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Titans are 9-0 OU (13.1 ppg) since December 04, 1997 on the road after a straight up win on the road as a dog.

NFL Week 6 Analysis

Titans (3-2) @ Jaguars (3-2) - Tennessee won five of last seven series games; they’re 5-3 in last eight visits here. Titans beat Jags last six times they held them to 17 or less points, lost last five times Jags score more than 17. Jax scored 31-36 points in last two games, running ball for 390 yards, averaging 7.4/7.5 ypa- they won at Buffalo last week despite -3 turnover ratio. Rare in NFL to win on road with that bad a ratio, even against a sorry team. Titans have played better on orad, beating Giants/Dallas while losing last two home games. Field position has been key for Tennessee; in their wins, they’ve been +11/+15/+15; in losses, -11/-14, with +7 turnover ratio in wins, -7 in losses. Jags were held to 3-13 points in losses; scored 24+ in wins- they’re 11-6 as home underdog since 2004. Again, underdogs off to amazing 20-4-1 start vs. spread in divisional games this season, 10-2-1 at home.

TENNESSEE (3-2) at JACKSONVILLE (3-2)

OPENING LINE - Titans by 3

RECORD VS. SPREAD - Tennessee 3-2; Jacksonville 3-2

SERIES RECORD - Titans lead 19-13

LAST MEETING - Titans 30, Jaguars 13, Nov. 1, 2009

LAST WEEK - Titans beat Cowboys 34-27; Jaguars beat Bills 36-26

TITANS OFFENSE - OVERALL (26), RUSH (6), PASS (28)

TITANS DEFENSE - OVERALL (22), RUSH (11), PASS (27)

JAGUARS OFFENSE - OVERALL (22), RUSH (4), PASS (26)

JAGUARS DEFENSE - OVERALL (30), RUSH (13), PASS (29)

STREAKS, STATS AND NOTES - Team with more yards rushing has won last six meetings. Last game featured career-high 225 yards rushing by Tennessee's Chris Johnson and career-high 177 yards by Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew... Titans have won five of last seven in series. ... Titans have won three of last four Monday night games. ... QB Vince Young is 10-5 vs. AFC South, including 4-2 mark vs. Jaguars. He has four TD passes, eight INTs and 10 sacks in those games. ... Johnson has seven straight 100-yard games on road. He has averaged 131 yards rushing during streak. ... WR Nate Washington has caught TD pass in four straight games vs. Jacksonville. ... Jaguars are 6-2 at home on Monday night. ... Jones-Drew recovering from sprained right wrist/hand. It was swollen and heavily taped Thursday, but he should be OK. ... C Brad Meester will break franchise record for career starts with No. 151 against Titans. ... WR Mike Sims-Walker needs five receptions to reach 100 for career. ... Coaches Jack Del Rio and Jeff Fisher both graduated from Southern California. Del Rio played linebacker for Trojans (1981-84); Fisher was defensive back (1977-80). Did they ever cross paths? ``No, he's old,'' Del Rio said. ``He was already long gone.''

Titans at Jaguars: What Bettors Need to Know
By Steve Merril

CURRENT ODDS

Oddsmakers are reluctant to move on or off the key number (3) in the NFL because favorites win by exactly a field goal nearly 10-percent of the time. The books are especially careful on primetime games due to the heavy volume of action and prefer to adjust the moneyline, instead of the actual pointspread.

This is evident in this game as some sportsbooks currently have Tennessee -2½ -120, while others have the Titans -3 +105.

The over/under line opened at 44.5 and has since gone up to 45. The public is split on the total, with only 53 percent favoring the over, according to the Covers.com consensus, while 68 percent of the public is backing the Titans.

INJURY REPORT

Going into their first division game of the season, the Titans are healthier than they have in a while. Wide receiver Justin Gage (hamstring) and punter Brett Kern (hamstring) were the only members of the active roster that didn’t practice on Friday.

Running back Chris Johnson (sore thigh), defensive tackle Tony Brown (knee) and receiver Damian Williams (illness) all returned to practice after sitting out Thursday.

”We’re getting there,” coach Jeff Fisher said. “Last week was a little shaky, but I think yesterday helped, and just the fact that the injuries we have had have been somewhat minor in nature.”

Things continue to look up for cornerback Jason McCourty (forearm), who’s been out since undergoing surgery following the third game of the season. He practiced for a second straight day on Friday.

”He’s been cleared to practice, but he’s not been permitted to have any contact yet,” Fisher said. “So he’s close.”

Jacksonville running back Maurice Jones-Drew’s right wrist and hand were taped and wrapped during the week and he skipped practice to give his hand some extra healing time, but he is probable for Monday night.

”It’s a swollen hand,” Jones-Drew said. “We’re just trying to get the swelling down. That's pretty much it, nothing serious. There’s no structural damage.”

The Jaguars’ Derek Cox missed Friday’s practice with a hamstring injury just a few days after being earning a starting cornerback job for Monday night’s game. Fullback Brock Bolen (groin), linebacker Jacob Cutrera (calf), and guard Justin Smiley (foot) also missed practice on Friday.

Linebacker Justin Durant and defensive end Aaron Kampman both participated fully after missing Thursday’s practice.

WHO YOU CALLIN' DIRTY?

Josh McDaniels thinks so. Denver’s head coach blasted the Titans for dirty play after his team won in Tennessee two weeks ago. The media made a big deal about it, but when the Jacksonville players were asked about it, they did not seem to agree with McDaniels.

”They’re one of those teams that play to and through the whistle,” Jaguars safety Gerald Alexander said. “So guys can take that as being dirty or being a cheap-shot artist or something like that. They play hard. Some teams may not be able to match that intensity, hence they say they play dirty.”

But Tennessee is still the third most penalized team in the NFL behind the Lions and Raiders. The Titans have been flagged for 41 penalties in their five games so far. Eight penalties per game is not a good statistic to own.

“We play aggressive,” Fisher told the press. “We don’t play cheap.”

LONG DIVISION

Tennessee is only one of three teams (Broncos and Giants the other two) that have yet to play a divisional game this season. We’re already in Week 6 so the fact the Titans haven’t played one yet is somewhat unusual.

The other whacky thing: the Titans will not play another divisional game until Nov. 28. That will begin a stretch of five divisional games over the last six weeks of the regular season.

“Yeah, it’s a little unusual,” Fisher said. “Certainly, this is our first division game, and I don’t have to tell you how the division’s stacked up right now. It takes on a significant importance. I think it’s going to be a great ballgame.”

FANS IN THE STANDS

Jacksonville has had trouble getting people to attend its games. The Jaguars have been blacked out numerous times in the past because they failed to sellout their stadium.

And there was concern that this game would not be shown locally in Jacksonville for that very reason, but enough tickets have been sold so at least the Jaguars can escape embarrassment this time.

According to Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew, the community is fired up about this game with the Titans.

“That is going to be the storyline for this game besides all the little individual things,” Jones-Drew said. “This is a very big game. It is going to be a playoff atmosphere. Everyone down here is real amped up for it.”

MNF - Titans at Jaguars
By Kevin Rogers

The only division in football with every team at .500 or above is the AFC South, as two of those squads meet up in Jacksonville on Monday night. The Titans and Jaguars are each 3-2, while trying to make some noise in a division that has been mainly owned by the Colts since realignment in 2002.

Even though Tennessee is two years removed from winning the division with a 13-3 record, the Titans are still attempting to be a force in the top-heavy AFC. Jeff Fisher's team is coming off a solid road underdog victory at Dallas last week, 34-27, despite getting outgained by 190 yards. The reigning rushing champion did his part in the win as Chris Johnson rushed for 131 yards and a pair of touchdowns.

The Jags made sure there was no letdown after the Week 4 upset of the Colts with last Sunday's 36-26 triumph at Buffalo. Jacksonville erased an early 10-0 deficit with two David Garrard touchdown tosses to Marcedes Lewis. The Jags then broke a 20-20 tie when Garrard found Mike Sims-Walker for a seven-yard touchdown strike in the final minutes of the third quarter to put Jacksonville up for good. The win at Buffalo was only the second in Jacksonville's last eight road games since last October.

Even though Johnson receives plenty of acclaim across the league as the top running back, don't sleep on Jacksonville's rushing offense, which ranks third overall with 146.8 yards/game. The only problem with the Jags' running game is their inability to get into the end zone, scoring just two touchdowns on the ground.

Jack Del Rio's club had a problem covering games at home from 2008 through 2009, owning a 3-13 ATS mark. However, the Jaguars have turned things around this season with a 2-1 ATS ledger at home, including wins over Denver and Indianapolis. Since Del Rio's arrival in 2003, the Jags have compiled an 11-8 ATS record when receiving points at home.

The home team grabbed both meetings last season, starting with Jacksonville blowing out Tennessee, 37-17. The Titans came into that game at 0-3, but the Jags jumped out to a 27-3 halftime lead and never looked back. The two key points to come out of that game involved both teams' running backs, as Johnson was held to 87 yards, while Maurice Jones-Drew ran for just 14 carries on eight carries.

Following Tennessee's bye week, the Titans picked up their first win of the season after an 0-6 start by taking care of the Jags in Nashville, 30-13, as three-point favorites. Both tailbacks had dramatically different efforts this time around, as Johnson put up a career-high 228 yards and two scores, while Jones-Drew tallied 177 yards and two touchdowns on only eight carries.

The Titans were 0-2 SU/ATS as a road favorite last season, including the 20-point defeat at Jacksonville as three-point 'chalk.' That record is in stark contrast to the 7-2 ATS mark Fisher's team put up from 2007-08, as the Titans covered five of seven times when laying points on the road during the division title season of 2008.

VI handicapper Bruce Marshall says the Titans have turned into a very unpredictable team through five weeks, "Tennessee has really been blowing hot and cold thus far, although we have seen the last two weeks how to and how not to deal with the Titans. Denver laid out the road map in Week 4, committing its defensive resources to stopping Johnson and making the erratic Vince Young beat it through the air."

As Marshall points out, the Cowboys' defense made things easy for the Titans last week, "Dallas didn't seem to make any special adjustments for Johnson, who ran well and made things easier for Young last week. Although the mechanics of slowing down the Tennessee offense are probably a bit more complicated, the fact is that Young has been very back-and-forth, and the Titans have followed good efforts with poor ones. If that zig-zag pattern continues this week, Tennessee could be in trouble."

Jacksonville has struggled in division games under Del Rio since 2006, owning a 10-15 SU mark, while going 11-14 ATS. Marshall believes that the Jags may be turning the corner, "The Indianapolis win seemed to revive the team and provide some much needed confidence for Garrard. Meanwhile, Del Rio's rebuilt defensive front is providing a bit more pass rush pressure than a year ago, which was really a problem for the Jags in '09."

The Titans opened up as a 2 ½-point favorite, but the number has been bumped to three at most spots. The total has remained steady at 45 for the entire week after opening up at 45 last Sunday night. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EDT and will be televised nationally on ESPN.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

It's pretty amazing to think that the Rams (3-3) own a better record than the Chargers (2-4) through the first six weeks, considering San Diego has played only one team that made the playoffs last season (Arizona). St. Louis continues to cash as a home 'dog, compiling a 3-1 SU/ATS mark when receiving points at the Edward Jones Dome.

The Saints bounced back nicely with a 31-6 thrashing of the Bucs at Raymond James Stadium as four-point favorites. Sometimes we think a little bit too much about a line, as New Orleans was the victim of two defensive touchdowns and a fumble recovery for a third score by Arizona last week. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was bailed out by some horrible decisions in the waning moments by Cincinnati, as the Saints needed a blowout to get back on track.

Perhaps one of the bigger momentum shifts for two teams came at Reliant Stadium in Houston as the Texans rallied late to beat the Chiefs, 35-31. Houston failed to cover, but the Texans had been blown out at home twice over the last month against the Giants and Cowboys, so this win was extremely important. On the flip side, Kansas City falls to 3-2, and even though they competed well the last two weeks on the road, the Chiefs threw away several opportunities that could have them at 4-1.

vegasinsider.com

Tips and Trends

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars

TITANS: (-3, O/U 45) Tennessee comes to town with one of the most explosive offenses in football. The Titans are averaging 26.4 PPG, 5th best in the NFL. QB Vince Young and RB Chris Johnson are surely licking their chops, as they face one of the worst defenses in the NFL in a primetime game. Tennessee is 3-2 both SU and ATS this season. Tennessee has played their best football on the road this year, winning both games SU as the listed underdog. In fact, Tennessee has won 5 of their past 6 games SU on the road. RB Johnson is 2nd in the NFL with 485 rushing YDS this season, and is excited to be playing on MNF. Johnson rushed for 228 YDS the last time he faced the Jaguars, so confidence will likely not be an issue tonight. Defensively, the Titans have allowed 26 and 27 PTS in their past 2 games. Tennessee will have to play far better defensively if they are going to win on the road in division play. The Titans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a winning home record. Tennessee is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against the AFC South. The Titans are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite.

Titans are 1-10 ATS against a team with a winning record.
The Under is 5-2 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.

Key injuries - RB Chris Johnson (thigh) is probable.

Projected Score: 24

JAGUARS: Jacksonville had had a roller coaster season thus far, yet they still find themselves tied for 1st in the AFC South. Jacksonville is 3-2 both SU and ATS this season. Tonight will be the 3rd home game of the season for the Jaguars, as they are 1-1 both SU and ATS thus far. Tonight will mark the 4th consecutive game that Jacksonville is the listed underdog. The Jaguars have been an offensive juggernaut of late, scoring 67 PTS in their past 2 games. If the Jaguars can score 30 PTS or more tonight it will mark the 1st time in franchise history that they've scored at least 30 PTS in 3 straight games. Jacksonville is expecting QB David Garrard to keep up his hot hand, as he's thrown 5 TD's in his past two games as well as 33 of his last 42 attempts. RB Maurice Jones-Drew is 8th in the NFL in rushing, and he's expected to have a big game tonight. The Jaguars have been terrible on defense this year, allowing 27.4 PPG, 3rd worst in the NFL. The Jaguars are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games as a home underdog up to a field goal. The Jaguars are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the AFC South. Jacksonville is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Monday games.

Jaguars are 5-14 ATS last 19 home games.
The Under is 4-0 in the Jaguars last 4 Monday games.

Key Injuries - S Sean Considine (hamstring) is probable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)