HOUSTON (4 - 2) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 2)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Houston is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 7 games
Indianapolis is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games when playing at home against Houston
HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS
HOUSTON: 7-19 ATS off home win
INDIANAPOLIS: 11-2 ATS if 50+ pts were scored last game
NFL Tech Trends - Week 8
By Bruce Marshall
HOUSTON at INDIANAPOLIS... Texans broke 6-game losing streak to Indy in opener, a 34-24 Houston win. "Overs" 10-1 last 11 in series. Kubiak 10-4 vs. line last 14 on road, 7-1 last 8 as road dog. Tech edge-"Over" and Texans, based on "totals" and team trends.
Gridiron Angles - Week 8
By Vince Akins
Texans at Colts - The Colts are 6-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since October 17, 2005 as a favorite on Monday Night Football. The Colts are 7-0 OU (7.7 ppg) since October 22, 2000 as a favorite when facing a team they lost to in their first match-up.
Texans at Colts: What Bettors Need to Know
By Steve Merril
Current Odds
Indianapolis has fluctuated between a 5 to 6-point home favorite during the week and currently stand -5.5 in most locations. The over/under on this game opened at 49 and has jumped to the key number of 51. The public is looking for a high-scoring game as 65 percent of the Covers.com consensus is supporting the over.
Injury Report
The Colts are missing three key players on offense: wide receiver Austin Collie, tight end Dallas Clark and running back Joseph Addai. Collie, Clark and Addai are ranked second, third, and fourth in receptions this season, combining for 99 catches for 968 yards with nine touchdowns. Addai is also the Colts’ leading rusher with 406 yards (4.4 ypr) and three touchdowns.
Houston has five players listed as questionable due to various knee and hamstring injuries. Defensive end Jesse Nading missed practice, while wide receiver Dorin Dickerson, cornerback Sherrick McManis and linebackers Xavier Adibi and Kevin Bentley all participated in practice after missing last week’s game.
No Dallas in Indianapolis
The Indianapolis Colts suffered a big blow when they lost tight end Dallas Clark to a season-ending wrist injury in their game against the Redskins two weeks ago. Clark is one of, if not the best, tight ends in the NFL and without him on the field is going to be a huge void to fill for the Colts.
Opposing teams will now play with five or six defensive backs, daring the Colts to run the football, something they cannot do consistently. The Colts average just 95 rushing yards per game on 3.7 yards per rush and they’ve only gained more than 100 yards on the ground in two of their six games.
”It’s going to be interesting,” Peyton Manning conceded. “There’s definitely some unknown there. We’ll have some groupings in there that we've never had before because Dallas is a guy that never left the field.
“You still have the same expectations, but you may have to make some adjustments. To sit here and say there's not an adjustment without Dallas Clark, we can't say that. He’s too great of a player not to have an effect.”
All Aboard the Foster Train
The Colts and Texans met in Week 1 and Houston running back Arian Foster had a career-game running the football. Foster ran for 231 yards on 33 carries as the Texans gashed the Indianapolis defense for 6.1 yards per rush. The Texans won that game 34-24 in a game that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates.
”We made the decision to run the ball that game,” Foster said. “I ended up with 30-something carries and any time you get into that rhythm, you just see the field better. The offensive line was tremendous. The tight ends and receivers blocked well. Everything was working.”
Can Foster repeat that effort again? It’s highly unlikely because the Colts will be game planning to stop Foster and the Texans running game now. And that should lead to some good opportunities for quarterback Matt Schaub and the Houston passing attack.
And these comments by Foster make us believe that the Texans will be looking to pass the ball in this game.
“We have a high-powered offense,” Foster said. “They (Colts) can’t go into this game with their attention on one individual. I think we have a good game plan in place and if we go in and execute the way I know we can, we are going to be just fine.”
A Drunk Punter? Say It Ain’t So
Indianapolis has one of the best punter/kickoff specialists in the league with Pat McAfee. But the Colts will be without McAfee for this game as he is suspended for one-game after his arrest for public intoxication during Indianapolis’ bye week.
The absence of McAfee is huge for the Colts here, but since he’s not a high-profile offensive or defensive player, this news is flying under the radar.
The Colts signed former Green Bay punter Jeremy Kapinos to kick for McAfee in this game. But this is a huge downgrade as some fantasy pundits have called Kapinos the ‘worst punter in football.’
Kapinos was so bad for the Packers that head coach Mike McCarthy publicly called him out twice for his terrible kicking during his time in Green Bay.
Indianapolis’ specials teams have been thinned by injuries and they have several regulars who could be required to play extensively on offense because of their multiple injuries on that side of the ball. It’s clear that the Colts have a big liability in this game on their special teams so you can’t overlook that fact when analyzing this matchup.
Texans-Colts Breakdown
When the Colts and Texans get together, everybody expects fireworks. Here’s how we see this one playing out by the numbers.
Offense:
Peyton Manning has the Indianapolis Colts No. 2 ranked offense putting up 27.2 points per game on 314.2 passing yards per outing. He’ll be without Dallas Clark and Austin Collie for this one though, so he’ll be spreading the ball around, which is a lot easier when he has only been sacked six times this season. Manning checks in with 13 touchdowns to only two interceptions.
Joseph Addai and Donald Brown are both banged up and Indy only averages 94.8 yards on the ground this season anyway.
Houston’s offense is more balanced with Arian Foster averaging 5.5 yards per carry and Matt Schaub leading the passing attack to 239 yards per outing. Andre Johnson has 488 receiving yards in five starts but only a pair of touchdowns. He had three catches for 33 yards in the Week 1 meeting with the Colts.
The Texans average 25.5 points per game.
Edge: Houston
Defense:
Houston’s defense allows 306.5 passing yards and 410.5 total yards per game – both worst in the NFL. Mario Williams is one of the lone bright spots of the unit with five sacks on the year. The Texans have allowed at least 24 points in each of their six games this year. They were ripped for 228 yards on the ground in Week 6’s 35-31 win over the Chiefs.
Indianapolis owns the league’s No. 11 pass defense allowing 206.7 yards per game but the club is absolutely terrible against the run, giving up 137.3 yards per contest. On the whole, Indy’s defense has been hit-or-miss. The Colts have held three of their previous opponents to fewer than 20 points but allowed at least 24 points in their other three games.
Edge: Indianapolis
Special teams:
Neither team does much in the return game. Indy ranks 25th in both punt and kick returns, while Houston is 21st in punt returns (8.8 yard average) and 30th in kick returns, bringing those back for only an average of 19.3 yards.
The Colts hit 83 percent of their field goals to Houston’s 82 percent.
Pat McAffee has a big boot in the punting/kickoff game for Indy averaging 44.7 yards per punt while recording 10 free catches, but he will miss the game after picking up a public intoxication charge during the bye week. Indy signed Jeremy Kapinos to fill in for him.
Houston gets the edge here without McAffee in the lineup.
Edge: Houston
From the files of the beat reporters:
“We're getting slapped in the face right now. We have to find some way to punch back. It's time for us to actually step up and actually do something about it. We have the talent. We have to be able to be the backbone of this team." - Texans safety Bernard Pollard told the Houston Chronicle about Houston’s defense.
"It was the offensive line, it was play calling in situations, it was a lot of self-inflicted things. We're going to go out there understanding that they have success. Not just against us, he's having success against other teams. That's definitely going to be a focus of ours.'' - Colts defensive end Dwight Freeney on Arian Foster’s big game against them in Week 1.
Final score prediction:
Colts 31, Texans 28
MNF - Texans at Colts
By Kevin Rogers
Two AFC South teams coming off the bye meet for the second time this season as the 4-2 Texans head to Lucas Oil Stadium to battle the 4-2 Colts. There is revenge on the mind of Indianapolis after getting literally and figuratively run out of Reliant Stadium in the season opener by Houston, 34-24.
Arian Foster rushed for an NFL season-high 231 yards and three touchdowns to lead a Houston ground game that racked up 257 yards, while leading the Texans to just their second-ever victory over the Colts in 17 tries. The Texans limited the Colts' rushing offense to just 44 yards, but Peyton Manning was his Pro Bowl-self by throwing for 433 yards. To be fair, the Colts were forced to throw the ball after digging themselves a 27-10 hole, including a 73-yard connection from Manning to Austin Collie.
The Texans covered easily as one-point underdogs against the Colts, the only time all season Houston has received points. Gary Kubiak's team is just 2-3 ATS since that Indianapolis win (the overtime victory at Washington can be considered a 'push' if you laid the three points with Houston early in the week). The Texans' offense has been inconsistent, as Houston has scored 30 points or more four times, while putting up 13 points or less in losses to the Giants and Cowboys.
The Colts may be lost in the shuffle in the AFC following the strong starts by the Jets, Steelers, Patriots, and Titans. Despite injuries to Collie, TE Dallas Clark and RB Joseph Addai, Indianapolis has outgained five of its six opponents this season. Manning is the top-rated quarterback in the league (103.4), while the Colts rank third in points per game at 27.2 behind the Patriots and Titans.
Indianapolis has been a great 'over' play on the road, while splitting a pair of home games from the total standpoint. The last time the Colts played at Lucas Oil Stadium, Jim Caldwell's club staved off a feisty Chiefs' squad in a 19-9 victory, covering as 7 ½-point favorites in Week 6. Indianapolis has had its ups and downs running the ball, but picked things up in the 27-24 Sunday night victory at Washington two weeks ago by rushing for 170 yards. However, with Addai listed as doubtful, the former UConn star Donald Brown will likely get the start at running back for the Colts.
If the Texans find a way to eventually make the playoffs for the first time ever, they can point to a 35-31 comeback home victory over the Chiefs prior to the bye week. Matt Schaub hit Andre Johnson with the game-winning touchdown to erase a 14-point second half-deficit which snapped a two-game skid at Reliant Stadium.
Houston has never won at Indianapolis, dropping all eight meetings in franchise history. The Texans have covered each of the last two seasons at Lucas Oil despite losing the games straight-up, including a 20-17 setback last November as 7 ½-point underdogs. The 'over' has been the play in this series the last five-plus seasons, hitting in 10 of the 11 meetings. However, only two of those games had a total listed at 50 or higher.
The Colts are listed as a 5 ½-point favorites at most spots after opening up at 4 ½ last Sunday night. The total is set at 51, the first time this season each team is playing with a total at 50 or higher. The game will kick off at 8:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on ESPN.
Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:
The Bills came up short once again in overtime on the road, this time falling at Kansas City, 13-10. Buffalo managed another cover as touchdown underdogs, but the Bills' inability to close out a game has landed them at 0-7. I will give Ryan Fitzpatrick credit for getting the game to overtime with a late touchdown pass in regulation to Steve Johnson to assure a cover.
The Jets' offense dried up in a 9-0 home loss to the Packers, as Green Bay easily cashed as six-point road underdogs. Mark Sanchez threw for 256 yards, but two costly interceptions helped give the Packers their fourth win of the season, which will loom large in the competitive NFC North.
How 'bout them Cowboys? Dallas falls to a dreadful 1-6 after getting punched in the mouth again at home, this time by Jacksonville. The Jags had struggled each of the last two weeks, but a huge game from David Garrard helped lift Jacksonville to its third victory this season as an underdog. Meanwhile, the Cowboys are now 0-5 SU/ATS when laying points in 2010, as it's smart to stay away from this team for awhile unless they get nice value as a 'dog.
vegasinsider.com
Monday Night Football Odds: Texans at Colts
By: Stephen Nover
The Houston-Indianapolis matchup isn’t your typical Monday Night Football game.
Both teams are 4-2, but a home loss for the Colts could spell the end of their dominance of the AFC South. That’s because Indianapolis has lost its first two division games falling to the Texans opening week and to Jacksonville.
The Colts are 5 ½-point favorites on the NFL betting board with the total at 49 ½. Kickoff is 5:35 p.m. with ESPN televising. This is the smallest margin Indianapolis has ever been favored when hosting the Texans, who entered the league in 2002.
There’s good reason for this. Peyton Manning is missing a number of key weapons.
Star tight end Dallas Clark is gone for the season and wide receiver Austin Collie is out several weeks with a thumb injury. Collie has a team-high six touchdown receptions. First-string running back Joseph Addai probably is going to miss the game, too, due to a shoulder injury.
This would leave Mike Hart and Donald Brown as the main running backs. Brown has missed the last three games with a hamstring injury, but is expected to play.
No other quarterback is as good as Manning, though, in getting the best out of what he has, which still includes elite wideout Reggie Wayne. Manning is having another MVP-type season leading the NFL in passer rating at 103.4 He entered Week 8 second in touchdown passes with 13 and fourth in passing yards with 1,916. Manning has only been picked off twice.
The Texans knocked Manning down 10 times in Week 1, sacking him twice. The Colts’ starting offense line, which hadn’t played a snap together during preseason due to injuries, has allowed only four sacks since then.
Houston defeated the Colts, 34-24, as one-point home ‘dogs with the combined 58 points going ‘over’ the 47 ½-point total. It was just the second time in 17 lifetime meetings the Texans have beaten Indianapolis. They have never won in eight games at Indianapolis.
The Texans, though, have covered nine of the 17 meetings. The ‘over’ has cashed in 10 of the last 11 games between the two teams.
Arian Foster ran for a franchise-record 231 yards in the Texans’ win against the Colts. Indy's defense is hoping to neutralize Foster, who has been held to 96 yards rushing in his last two games, while Manning lights up a Houston defense that ranks last in total yards giving up 410.5 yards per game and is 31st in passing yards.
Both teams were idle last week. The Colts are expected to get back injured linebacker Gary Brackett.
Houston’s offense gets a boost with the return of left tackle Duane Brown from a four-game suspension for violating the league’s policy on banned substances. Brown neutralized pass-rushing terror Dwight Freeney in the first meeting.
Matt Schaub led the league in passing last season, but has been sacked 16 times and entered the week ranked 13th in passing yards. Brown should shore up the Texans’ pass protection. Star wideout Andre Johnson is close to 100 percent after missing one game with an ankle injury.
The Texans are without middle linebacker DeMeco Ryans, lost for the year with an Achilles tendon injury. Reigning Rookie of the Year Brian Cushing will switch to middle linebacker to replace Ryans.
Jacoby Jones gives the Texans a dangerous return man. Indianapolis will be without suspended punter and kickoff specialist Pat McAfee.
Houston has covered seven of the last eight times as a road underdog. The Texans have won and covered in their two road contests this season beating Oakland, 31-24, as 3 ½-point favorites and defeating Washington, 30-27, as 2 ½-point favorites rallying from 17 points down.
MNF Week 8
Texans (4-2) @ Colts (4-2) - First rematch of season has Indy trying to avenge 34-24 loss in Week 1, just Texans’ second win in 17 series games; Houston is 0-8 here, losing 33-27/20-17 in last two visits. Houston had 257 rushing yards in opener, converting 6-11 on 3rd down as they scored four TD’s on nine drives. Both teams had bye last week; Texans are 1-4 in last five post-bye games, Colts won/covered their last five, but season-ending injury to TE Clark (wrist) will hamper Indy aerial attack, which had 419 yards in opener. Home favorites in divisional games are just 4-13 vs spread this season. Indy is 2-0 as home favorite this year (won 38-14/19-9 vs. two first-place teams). Texans are 2-0 on road, winning at Washington/Oakland. Average total in Texans’ last seven visits here is 53.9.
Tips and Trends
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts
TEXANS: Houston is 4-2 SU in the AFC South this year, 1 game behind the Tennessee Titans. The AFC South is one of the most underrated divisions in football, so every division game is magnified. Houston will look to beat the Colts for the 2nd time this season tonight. The Texans are 2-0 both SU and ATS this season on the road, beating the Redskins and Raiders. RB Arian Foster will look to dominate the Colts defense yet again, as he rushed for 231 YDS against them this year. Foster is 4th in the NFL with 635 rushing YDS, along with 6 TD's this season. QB Matt Schaub is the leader of this offense, and he's thrown for more than 1,500 YDS with 9 TD's on the year. Houston is averaging 25.5 PPG this season, 6th best in the NFL. In order for the Texans to win tonight, they are going to have to improve defensively. The Texas are allowing a league worst 410 YPG this year, and have to go up against Peyton Manning on revenge in a Monday Night setting. The Texans are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Houston is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Texans are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games. Houston is 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Texans are 7-1 ATS last 8 games as a road underdog.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games following a bye week.
Key Injuries - LB DeMeco Ryans (achilles) is out.
Projected Score: 27
COLTS: (-5.5, O/U 50) Indianapolis has beaten Houston 15 of their past 17 tries. That being said, the Colts have plenty of revenge as they get ready to play the Texans tonight. The Colts lost 24-34 SU in Week 1 of this year, in a very embarrassing defeat. Indianapolis is 4-2 SU this season, with both losses coming within their division. The Colts need to win tonight to avoid starting the year 0-3 in the AFC South. QB Peyton Manning leads a Colts offense that is missing numerous key starters, due to several injuries. Manning is directing a Colts offense that is averaging 27.2 PPG, 3rd best in the NFL. Manning has thrown for more than 1,900 YDS, including 13 TD's against 2 INT's. Indianapolis will look to take advantage of the worst defense in the NFL statistically tonight in the Texans. Defensively, Indianapolis will be looking to stop the rushing attack of Houston. The Colts allowed Arian Foster to rush for 231 YDS in Week 1, something that can't happen again. The Colts are allowing more than 137 rushing YPG, 6th worst in the NFL this season. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on fieldturf. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. The Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Indianapolis is 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against the AFC.
Colts are 6-1 ATS last 7 Monday games.
Over is 9-4 last 13 Monday games.
Key Injuries - WR Austin Collie (hand) is out.
Projected Score: 31 (OVER-Total of the Day)