MNF News and Notes Week 9

NFL Tech Trends - Week 9
By Bruce Marshall

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI... Bengals won and covered both meetings LY after Steelers had won and covered previous five. Steelers were also 7-0-1 vs. line previous 8 at Paul Brown Stadium. Marvin Lewis just 4-8 vs. line at home since LY and "under" 10-4 last 14 as host. Tech edge-Steelers and "under," based on extended series and "totals" trends.

NFL Week 9 Games

Steelers (5-2) @ Bengals (2-5) - Monday night home dogs a traditional money-maker, and home dogs in divisional games are 11-4-1 this year. Nasty bit of scheduling has Steelers playing third straight week on road, historical soft spot in NFL, especially with last two in primetime. Pitt’s 23-20 loss here LY was their first in last nine visits, as Bengals swept season series. Steelers scored 14-10 points in their two losses- they allowed 22-20 points in last two games, after giving up just 12 ppg in first five games of year. Cincy lost last four games, allowing 27 ppg; they gave up 10-7 points in their two wins, 22+ in their five losses. No one has run ball for more than 75 yards against Steelers this year. Three of last four Bengal games went over the total.

Steelers at Bengals: What Bettors Need to Know
By Steve Merril

Current Odds

The Steelers opened as 3.5-point road favorites last week and the money has since pushed the line higher. Pittsburgh is now a 5 to 5.5-point favorite. This is not a surprise as 63 percent of the public is backing the favorite according to the Covers.com consensus.

The public is more split on the total as only 54 percent is favoring the over. Oddsmakers opened the total as high as 42.5 last week, but it has since dropped down to the key number of 41 in most locations.

Weather will not be an issue tonight as the forecast is calling for clear conditions in Cincinnati with a kickoff temperature of 37-degrees.

Injury Report

The Steelers are healthy and enter tonight’s game with only a few injuries. Offensive tackles Flozell Adams and Chris Scott are both listed as questionable, while defensive end Brett Keisel is probable and expected to play tonight.

The Bengals are more banged up, especially on the defensive side of the ball. Cincinnati lost cornerback Adam Jones to a season-ending neck injury two weeks ago. Defensive tackle Tank Johnson injured his knee last week and is listed as questionable, along with linebacker Roddrick Muckelroy who is battling an ankle injury.

Defensive end Jonathan Fanene has been downgraded to doubtful with a hamstring injury, while defensive backs Chinedum Ndukwe, Roy Williams and Johnathan Joseph are all listed as probable and expected to play tonight.

3rd Down Blues

The Cincinnati offense can’t seem to get out of its own way this season. The Bengals have scored 21 points or less in five of their seven games, and the two games they scored 24 and 32 points were games they were trailing by double digits and scored in garbage time.

A big reason for their lack of production has been their inability to convert on 3rd down. The Bengals had five straight three and outs in their last game against the Dolphins and were just 2-for-12 on 3rd down in that game.

The Bengals are 20th in the league in 3rd-down efficiency (37.3 percent) and quarterback Carson Palmer is 27th in 3rd-down passing, going 40-82 for 431 yards and a QB rating of 62.6. He is one of only four quarterbacks in the NFL with a completion percentage on 3rd down below 50 percent.

“We put ourselves in some third and long situations instead of using the run game to get into third and short or third and mediums,” Palmer told reporters this week. “Being able to bring a four-man rush and still get coverage is a good combination for a defensive team.”

Double Revenge

Pittsburgh lost to Cincinnati twice last season; 23-20 on the road and 18-12 at home. Those results were surprising since the Steelers were 5-1 straight up and against the spread vs. the Bengals the three previous seasons. Pittsburgh’s offense was terrible in both games, and the club's players remember those ugly games well.

”I remember the offense sputtering,” Pittsburgh tight end Health Miller said. “Our defense kept us in the games, but we couldn't really get anything going. They baffled us on third downs.

"We need to understand what we’re up against going into this game. This is a make-or-break game in their season and we’re only 1-1 in our division. We need to really play well if we're going to go in there and get a victory.”

Before scoring just 10 points in New Orleans last week, Pittsburgh's offense scored 51 points in the two games with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger back under center. The Steelers should score in this game as the Bengals defense has allowed 22, 39, 24, and 23 points over their last four games.

Struggling Secondary

Pittsburgh’s defense has good overall numbers on the season. The Steelers allow just 15 points and 302 yards per game while holding teams to just 5.0 yards per play.

Those overall numbers hide the fact that Pittsburgh’s secondary is really struggling this season - 243 yards of their 302 yards allowed come through the air. The Steelers rank just 25th in the NFL is passing defense.

In their last four games, they’ve allowed Drew Brees to complete 34 of 44 passes for 305 yards, Chad Henne 257 passing yards, rookie Colt McCoy 281 yards and Joe Flacco 256 passing yards. Those numbers are unlike the Steelers so there’s got to be something wrong with their back seven.

“I think there are times in games where there were a lot of opportunities to make plays, and I didn't make them,” Troy Polamalu said. “It doesn’t have anything to do with anything physical with me, and maybe I'm second-guessing myself a little too much.”

Tale of the tape: Steelers at Bengals

Last year the Cincinnati Bengals took both of their meetings with the Pittsburgh Steelers on their way to a playoff berth. This season the Bengals need a win over Pittsburgh just to get back in the AFC North picture.

Offense:

Pittsburgh’s offense hasn’t hit its stride with Ben Roethlisberger taking the snaps. Big Ben is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt with five touchdowns to two interceptions in his three starts. The Steelers’ offensive line is tied for 24th in the league allowing 28 quarterback hits, while the passing offense averages only 180.3 yards per game, 29th in the NFL.

The Steelers’ running game has been average, putting up 117.3 yards per game. Rashard Mendenhall leads the way with 603 yards and six touchdowns.

Carson Palmer isn’t on the same page with his receivers yet either. Palmer sits third in the league with 40.3 passing attempts per game, but averages only 6.6 yards per attempt as he checks in with a 59.6 completion percentage.

Cedric Benson leads the rushing attack with 545 rushing yards on 3.8 yards per carry. He went off for a 144-yard day in Week 5 against Tampa Bay, but cracked 80 yards in only one other game this season.

Pittsburgh averages 21 points per game to Cincinnati’s 20.9.

Edge: Bengals

Defense:

Pittsburgh owns the league’s No. 4 total defense and allows a league-low 14.6 points per game. The Steelers only give up 58.9 yards per contest, which is more than 20 yards better than the league’s next best run defense from the Chicago Bears. Lawrence Timmons sits tied for sixth with 74 tackles, while James Harrison has six sacks.

Cincinnati’s defense gives up 23.3 points per game and struggles stopping the run or the pass, giving up 120.7 yards on the ground and 221.3 yards through the air per game. The Bengals have managed just six quarterback sacks this season, tied for the worst output in the NFL. Leon Hall leads the club with four interceptions.

Edge: Steelers

Special teams:

Cincinnati owns the sixth-best field goal percentage at 87.5 percent, but averages only 20 yards per kick return and 6.9 yards on punt returns.

Pittsburgh sits third in the league with 28.4 yards per kick return. The Steelers managed only 7.1 yards on punt returns. The club averages 46.9 yards per punt with 13 free catches, but hits only 70.9 percent of its field goals.

Edge: Steelers

From the files of the beat reporters:

"They can make it 75 percent and it wouldn't bother me, because mostly they're throwing screens, quick hitches and curls. It's not like they're picking up big yardage every time they throw." – Steelers safety Troy Polamalu told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette about opposing quarterbacks completing 68 percent of their attempts against Pittsburgh this season.

"Marvin never brings it up or anything like that. That's his business and something he is dealing with, and we as players are trying to stick together and find a way to get out a win." – Bengals quarterback Carson Palmer told the Observer-Reporter.com about coach Marvin Lewis and the speculation the Bengals could be playing to save his job this week.

Final score prediction:

Pittsburgh 17, Cincinnati 10

MNF - Steelers at Bengals
By Kevin Rogers

The Week 9 card concludes in Cincinnati with a pair of AFC North rivals meeting for the first time this season. The 5-2 Steelers wrap up a rare stretch of three consecutive road games as they head to Southern Ohio to take on the league's traveling circus in the 2-5 Bengals.

Pittsburgh is right in the mix of the AFC's elite alongside the Jets, Patriots, Colts, and Ravens even after playing the first four games without suspended quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Big Ben jumped back into the saddle after the 3-1 start by the Steelers to guide the Black and Gold to two wins in the last three weeks. Pittsburgh had to work hard for the victories over Cleveland (28-10) and Miami (23-22) before falling short at New Orleans (20-10) on Halloween night. The Steelers managed a late cover over the Browns as 14-point favorites before failing to cash in a controversial finish at Miami as three-point road 'chalk.'

The loss to the Saints in the battle of the last two Super Bowl champions on Halloween night at the Superdome was just the second time this season that the Steelers had been limited to just one touchdown. In fact, there was little offense on both sides as the game was tied at 3-3 at halftime, but the Saints broke things open with a late Drew Brees touchdown pass to Lance Moore to give New Orleans the 10-point win and cover.

The Bengals keep bringing names onto their team like Terrell Owens, Adam Jones, and Tank Johnson, but that has not translated into victories this season. T.O. has been productive in his first season in Cincinnati by accumulating a team-high 629 yards and five touchdowns. Cedric Benson's resurgence last season isn't yielding the same results in 2010 as the ex-Texas Longhorn has rushed for over 100 yards just once through seven games.

Cincinnati started the season at 2-1 following consecutive victories over Baltimore and Carolina, but the Bengals are mired in a four-game slide thanks to losses to the Browns (23-20), Bucs (24-21), Falcons (39-32), and Dolphins (22-14). Marvin Lewis' team isn't getting blown out of these games, as Cincinnati led going into the fourth quarter against Tampa Bay and Atlanta. However, the Bengals have scored 22 points in the final quarter combined in the last four losses.

Playing the role of underdog was a benefit to the Bengals last season, cashing seven of nine times when receiving points. Cincinnati hasn't been as great this season as a 'dog with losses in two of three opportunities. The only victory as an underdog for the Bengals came at home against a division opponent as Cincinnati knocked off Baltimore in Week 2 by a 15-10 count as 2 ½-point 'dogs.

Following five straight victories by the Steelers in this series from 2006-2008, the Bengals pulled off a season sweep in 2009. Cincinnati rallied from a 13-0 deficit in the first meeting as the Bengals received a Carson Palmer touchdown pass to Andre Caldwell in the final seconds for a 23-20 win as 3 ½-point home 'dogs. The Bengals turned the trick once again at Heinz Field in a game where special teams dominated with each team kicking four field goals. However, the big play was a Bernard Scott kickoff return for a score which proved to be the difference for the Bengals, who cashed easily as 6 ½-point underdogs.

The Bengals are 2-2 SU/ATS in Lewis' tenure in Monday night games with the last appearance coming in 2007 when Cincinnati was destroyed by New England, 34-13 as eight-point home 'dogs. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers own a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS mark in Monday night contests as Pittsburgh won easily as a road favorite last season at Denver, 28-10.

The Steelers are listed as five-point road favorites with the total set at 41, as the game will be televised nationally on ESPN at 8:30 PM EST.

Mr. Rogers' Neighborhood:

-The first thing I would like to address is my 1-4 Sunday. Following four consecutive Sundays with 4-1 records, things didn't work out so well this week. Admittedly, the Seahawks was a bad pick with their gross loss to the Giants at home. Both Atlanta and Kansas City had plenty of opportunities to cover, but fell short. The Falcons outgained the Bucs in the first down, yardage, and possession department, but couldn't close out the deal from a pointspread standpoint. The Chiefs threw away a 10-0 lead to the Raiders and didn't make the necessary stops down the stretch at Oakland in a 23-20 overtime loss. I hope that you stick with me and this week was just a bump in the road in a long season.

Three of the biggest public favorites on Sunday failed to cover as the Patriots, Vikings, and Jets couldn't cash. New England was blown out in wire-to-wire fashion at Cleveland as 4 ½-point 'chalk,' the second straight impressive victory by the Browns after their win at New Orleans two weeks ago as 12-point underdogs. Both New York and Minnesota should have lost in regulation, but their respective opponents kept each club in the game. The Lions mismanaged the clock in the final minute, leading to the game-tying field goal in regulation by the Jets. Brett Favre and the Vikings awoke from the dead with a pair of late touchdowns in regulation to force overtime and ultimately get the win, but Minnesota couldn't cover as 7 ½-point favorites.

Even though the Bucs fell short at Atlanta, 27-21, Tampa Bay managed a cover as 10-point underdogs. Raheem Morris' team received several big plays from special teams to hang around against the Falcons, but the Bucs remain in the Wild Card mix inside the NFC South at 5-3. Atlanta enters Week 10 in first place inside the division, while New Orleans goes into its bye week at 6-3 after thrashing Carolina, 34-3.

The Giants continue to air-it-out with their blowout victory over the Seahawks, their fifth straight win following a 1-2 start. Eli Manning threw multiple touchdowns for the fourth consecutive week, while Big Blue scored at least 28 points for the fifth time. The Giants will take on the Cowboys for the second time in a less than a month next Sunday at the new Meadowlands.

vegasinsider.com

Monday Night Football Preview: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
By: Jeff Mattingly

Pittsburgh dropped a sloppy 20-10 contest on the road last week to the New Orleans Saints in a primetime clash and are focused on making things right on Monday Night Football. “You can’t make excuses. We have to play better,” said quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. “We never got into any rhythm. This is definitely a gut check for us.” Head coach Mike Tomlin will have his team ready to go from the opening snap and brings in a perfect 5-0 record on Monday Night Football. The Steelers lead the all-time regular-season series 47-32 despite being swept last year in the series for the first time since 1998. The team is 4-3 ATS this season and an even 7-7 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

The Steelers have typically been dominant at tonight’s venue, but blew an 11-point fourth-quarter lead in a 23-10 loss at Paul Brown Stadium last year. Roethlisberger is 6-1 in Cincinnati with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. Pittsburgh’s rushing game has been the main reason the team has enjoyed so much success against the Bengals on the road, averaging 162.1 yards per game in its last nine visits. Running back Rashard Mendenhall may not be up to that challenge considering he is managing just 67.8 yards in his last four games.

Cincinnati will be making its 28th appearance on Monday Night Football and will be playing the Steelers in this primetime event for the eight time, its most frequent foe. The last time the Bengals beat the Steelers in primetime was October 19, 1995 in Three Rivers Stadium. The team just completed an 0-4 October by falling 22-14 to visiting Miami last week, marking a fourth-straight loss in a one-possession game. “I don’t know if there’s a worse feeling than losing a bunch of games in a row,” quarterback Carson Palmer stated. “This is definitely a low for this group.” Cincinnati is 8-12 ATS at home over the past three years and 9-20 ATS against conference opponents.

The Bengals have posted a 6-3 home record on Monday Night Football and the kickoff temperature is expected to be at 50 degrees. Cincinnati must play a physical brand of football in this contest to compete, with its defense surrendering 138.3 rushing yards per game in its last three contests. They will also be up against a coach that buries opponents on this night, outscoring foes by a 115-43 margin in his five wins.

Bettors may actually lay the Steelers due to their 3-8 ATS mark as a road favorite, while the Bengals are 5-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Tips and Trends

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

STEELERS: (-5.5, O/U 41) Pittsburgh is playing back to back primetime games, while hoping for a different outcome than last week. The Steelers are 5-2 SU and 3-1 SU on the road this season. The Steelers are out for revenge considering they lost both meetings with the Bengals last year SU, the listed favorite each time. Pittsburgh is 2-2 ATS this season on the road. Pittsburgh is hoping QB Ben Roethlisberger will lead this Steelers to a better showing offensively this week. The Steelers are averaging 21 PPG this year, yet are averaging the 6th fewest YPG in the NFL. RB Barshard Mendenhall has rushed for more than 600 YDS and 6 TD's this season. Pittsburgh is as good as ever defensively, as they are allowing a league low 14.6 PPG this year. Only 1 opponent has scored more than 20 PTS against the Steelers this year. The Steelers are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games as the listed favorite. The Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road favorite. Pittsburgh is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Steelers are 2-6 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - T Flozell Adams (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 21

BENGALS: Cincinnati has dealt with plenty of heartbreaks during their current 4 game SU losing streak. The Bengals have lost by 1 possession in each of those 4 losses. The Bengals are 2-1 both SU and ATS at home this season. The point spread has yet to matter this year for the Bengals, as they've had the exact same result both SU and ATS in each game this year. Cincinnati has been outgained in relation to total yards in each of their home games this year. QB Carson Palmer has been very inconsistent this year, and there are questions regarding his leadership of this Cincinnati offense. Palmer has a QB Rating of 83 this year, along with 12 TD's and 7 INT's. The Bengals were held under 275 YDS offensively in each meeting with the Steelers last year. The biggest reason for the Bengals being just 2-5 SU this year is their defense. Cincinnati is allowing 23.3 PPG this year, 9th worst in the NFL. The Bengals have allowed at least 22 PTS in each of their last 4 games. The Bengals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss. Cincinnati is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss.

Bengals are 1-6 ATS last 7 home games overall.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - DT Tank Johnson (leg) is questionable.

Projected Score: 20 (SIDE of the Day)