Monday Newsletter Bowls

THE SPORTS MEMO

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
NC State +7 vs. Rutgers O/U 52
Monday, December 29, 3 pm ET ESPN - Birmingham, Ala.
Recommendation: NC State

This may be a lower-tier bowl game but the selection committee
got it right when they matched-up two teams that closed out the season on big runs. Rutgers endured a 0-3 start that turned into a 1-5 record.. At that point, with only a win against Morgan State, it did not look like the Scarlet Knights would be going bowling. Yet they caught fire and won their last six games to finish at 7-5. Three of their six wins were against bowl teams; Connecticut, Pittsburgh and South Florida. A review of their schedule shows that four of their five early losses were also against bowl teams. NC State can certainly relate to Rutgers. The Wolfpack were 2-6 before winning their last four games to finish at 6-6. They ended the season with three straight wins over ACC bowlers; Wake Forest, North Carolina and Miami-Florida. Without questionboth teams got to this point because of their successful quarterback play. Mike Teel, Rutgers’ three-year starter, got off to a terrible start but was able to turn it around, looking like one of the top quarterbacks in the country down the stretch. The Scarlet Knights put up an incredible 46 points per game over their last five wins. Even with the slow start Rutgers season long numbers were a respectable 4.72 yards per rush and 7.78 yards per pass. But in their six-game winning streak, Teel averaged 316 yards per game at a rate of 9.76 yards per pass. NC State can also trace its turnaround to the quarterback position. Russell Wilson was not the starter to open the season and was injured in his first appearance. When healthy he was simply phenomenal. He earned ACC Rookie of the Year honors and was chosen to the all-conference team. Wilson threw just one interception all year and has a current streak of 226 passes without a pick. He has 16 touchdown passes and no interceptions over his last eight starts. Coupled with an ability to run the ball he kept alive many of NC State’s scoring drives with third down scrambles. Overall he means as much to his teams’ offensive success as any one player in the country. For the season, the NC State offense ran for 4.91 yards per rush and threw for 5.79 yards per pass. However those numbers include three games in which Wilson either was limited or did not play due to injury. Each team has holes in its defense as they both allowed nearly 5.0 yards per rush and 7.0 yards per pass for the season. These two hot offenses should have a significant edge over the defense.We had the game lined at pick’em in one set of our power ratings we fully expect the result to be decided late in the fourth quarter. Even with Teel on a tear we believe Wilson has the capabilities to match scores and make as many plays. We’ll take the points with NC State and consider them a live underdog in what should be a great game.

ALAMO BOWL
Northwestern +13 vs. Missouri O/U 66
Monday, December 29, 8 pm ET ESPN - San Antonio
Recommendation: Northwestern

As further evidence that the Big Ten is significantly down this year consider the pointspreads here in the 2008 bowl season. The Big Ten has seven bowl teams and six of them are underdogs. All totaled five of them are underdogs of more than a touchdown and four of them are in the double digit range. In a bowl season in which only six games have double-digit pointspreads the betting marketplace clearly doesn’t respect the Big Ten. Northwestern wasn’t a very good team this year. The Wildcats somehow managed to eke out nine wins in the regular season despite finishing 83rd in true rushing yards per carry and 81st in true passing yards per attempt. Senior quarterback CJ Bacher was awful at times, finishing with as many interceptions as touchdowns. Senior running back Tyrell Sutton battled injuries all year and gained only 776 yards on the ground. The offense was largely dink and dunk, with only one receiver, Eric Peterman, averaging more than ten yards per reception. The Wildcats had -5 turnover margin and was ranked 85th in the country in turnovers per game. Despite all of these negative numbers, Pat Fitzgerald guided this mediocre team to a fourth place Big Ten finish and their first bowl appearance since 2005. The schedule was the primary factor for success as Northwestern played a ridiculously weak schedule. Only two of their nine victories came against bowl bound foes. They had a +4 turnover margin and beat Iowa early when the Hawkeyes were struggling. They also beat Minnesota on an interception return touchdown in the game’s final seconds. That’s it when it comes to quality wins in 2008 for the Wildcats.Missouri didn’t exactly step up in class this season either. The Tigers were annihilated against the spread in all four of their tough games in 2008. They lost outright as a double-digit favorites against Oklahoma State and Kansas. And they were blown off the field in ugly losses to Texas and Missouri. The Tigers covered only two pointspreads in their final eight games of the season and those two wins came against Colorado and Iowa State who combined to post a 2-14 straight up and 4-12 against the spread mark versus Big XII competition. Despite those failings down the stretch, the Tigers’ offense is extremely potent. Quarterback Chase Daniel was the Big XII Offensive Player of the Year as a junior and his senior year was every bit as good. Playmaking speedster Jeremy Maclin and tight end Chase Coffman combined to catch 22 touchdowns and 178 receptions for more than 2,100 receiving yards. Overall, there is no question Missouri has the advantage on offense but the Tigers rarely showed much on the defensive side of the equation. In a game of motivation, Missouri can’t be all too excited about playing in a second-tier bowl. Meanwhile Northwestern has shown the ability to keep it close and will have enough in its offensive arsenal to keep this game within the number against a less than impressive defense.

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
Legion Field • Birmingham, AL
Rutgers over NC State by 1

The Wolfpack may have ended the season at 6-6 but NC State fans can
howl over winning the ‘state championship’ this year, whipping Duke, East
Carolina, North Carolina and Wake Forest to claim the unoffi cial crown.
Today’s game appears to be one of the more interesting matchups on this
year’s bowl schedule with both squads grabbing the cash at such a torrid
pace that we’re surprised Anna Nicole Smith hasn’t returned from the
dead to grab her share of the loot. After a 1-5 start, the Scarlet Knights
have won 6 straight and brought home the bacon in 7 of the last 8 while
the Wolfpack enter on a 4-game win streak and a 7-game ATS run. Even
though Rutgers senior QB Mike Teel has certainly been the catalyst in the
Scarlet Knights’ resurgence, we think our Freshman of the Year, NC State QB
Russell Wilson, could be the difference in this one. Wilson has tremendous
poise and athletic ability (226 passes with NO INTs and 16 TDs this season)
and Tom O’Brien’s crew should make some serious noise in the ACC over
the next few years. The Wolfpack faced the 2nd toughest schedule of all
bowlers this season and speaking of O’Brien, he checks in with a nifty 6-1
SU and ATS mark in his 7 bowl appearances, including a perfect 5-0 SU and
ATS against an opponent off a SU win. Greg Schiano’s 11-1 ATS mark with
a winning record versus non conference opponents is nothing to sneeze at
but we’ll once again side with ACC bowl dogs who have been very good to
us over the past several campaigns. Wilson’s athletic ability and O’Brien’s
bowl pedigree keeps this one close. Grab the points.

ALAMO BOWL
Alamodome • San Antonio, TX
Missouri over Northwestern by 6

Touting QB Chase Daniel as a Heisman Trophy candidate and carrying a 12-
2 record from 2007, Mizzou opened this season with a powerful 5-0 rush,
blasting opponents while lighting up the scoreboard for 53.4 PPG. However,
the euphoria was quickly squelched by back-to-back losses to Oklahoma
State and Texas. And even though the Tigers rebounded to reach the Big 12
Championship game, they got a 62-21 dose of reality from Oklahoma that
might take longer than a few weeks to shake: Bowl chalk of 4.5 or more
points off a loss in a Championship game are just 4-9 ATS, including 0-4 ATS
when off a loss of 20 or more points. Northwestern, on the other hand,
was a major surprise this year, casting aside a 10-14 SU effort in 2 seasons
under coach Pat Fitzgerald to fashion an incredible 9-3 record. An upset of
Mizzou here would give the Wildcats just their 2nd bowl victory and 2nd
10-win season in school history. But unlike years gone by, NU’s traditional
Achilles’ heel – the defense – more than held its own by limiting foes to
just 19 PPG while racking up 33 sacks. The Purple Cats also have a pretty
decent signal caller of their own in C.J. Bacher who should make some hay
against a Missouri pass ‘D’ that allowed over 325 yards in each of its last
3 games. And if superb RB Tyrell Sutton has suffi ciently recovered from a
serious wrist injury to be remotely effective, Northwestern can engineer
clock-killing drives that will keep Daniel and his array of offensive weapons
(pay special attention to WR Jeremy Maclin) pacing the sidelines and off the
scoreboard. Alamo Bowl favorites have cashed in only 2 of the previous 7
tries and Big 12 Bowl favs are only 2-7 SU and 0-9 ATS when tackling a Big
10 opponent allowing fewer than 23 PPG. It also doesn’t hurt the Wildcats’
cause that Mizzou OC Dave Christensen has announced he’s leaving to take
the head coaching job at Wyoming, even though he will be calling plays in
tonight’s game. Missouri coach Pinkel showed he could motivate his team
after last year’s humbling loss to Oklahoma in the Big 12 title game when
he led the Tigers to a convincing 38-7 Cotton Bowl rout of Arkansas but
we’re not looking for history to repeat here in Alamo country. This catfight
goes to NU.

NORTHCOAST POWER SWEEP

PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL

First meeting. The Papajohns.com Bowl features two of the NCAA’s hottest teams as they have
combined to win the L/10 SU and the L/16 ATS. They had 2 common opp’s (NC & USF) with USF (-9’)
defeating NCSt 41-10 but NCSt (+11) upsetting NC, 41-10. RU (-6) was crushed by NC 44-12 but they
upset USF 49-16 (+8). LY NCSt came back to win L/4 after a 1-5 start, but lost its L/2 to miss out on the
postseason. TY they started 2-6 before becoming the 1st team in ACC history to finish the ssn 4-0 in conf
play after beginning at 0-4 and they have won 7 str ATS. This will be St’s 1st bowl gm under HC O’Brien
in his 2nd yr with the Pack and he is 6-1 SU/ATS in bowl gms. NCSt last played in the ‘05 Meineke Car
Care Bowl & shutout USF 14-0. This is the Wolfpack’s 24th bowl & the tm has posted an all-time mark of
12-10-1. Rutgers ret’d 15 starters TY but suffered a huge loss in RB Rice & had to replace 7 asst coaches
incl RB coach Ver Steeg. The Knights struggled early on as the off avg’d just 13 ppg vs IA opp’s. They
became the BE’s hottest tm winning the L/9 ATS including L/6 SU & avg 46 ppg the L/5. They became
the 7th tm in NCAA history to go to a bowl after a 1-5 start. The Knights are in their 4th straight bowl &
5th in history. RU is 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS under Schiano incl LY’s 52-30 win over Ball St in the International
Bowl. NCSt plays on grass while the Knights are 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS on grass the L/3Y. NCSt has faced
10 bowl tms TY (4-6 SU but 8-2 ATS). RU played 8 bowl tms (3-5 SU/5-3 ATS) being outgained 367-347.
NCSt has 13 upperclassmen starters incl 8 Sr’s while RU has 7 Sr’s among 14 upperclassmen. RU’s
dominating stretch run has energized the fan base while the Pack fans should be hungry for a bowl after
a 2 year hiatus and are just a day’s drive away. Both teams were 2-3 SU & 4-1 ATS in road gms TY.
For the first time in ACC history (only 3rd time in history of coll FB) a conf has 10 bowl elig tms. With
NCSt getting an at-large bid, all 6 Atlantic Div tms are bowling TY. State is playing the best football of
anyone in the ACC, has an exciting rFr QB & a D that has suddenly figured out how to take the ball
away. QB Russell Wilson has been impressive TY, throwing ONLY 1 int (226 passes w/o an int) & earned
himself 1st Tm ACC & ACC Rookie of the Yr. TB Brown has 2,500 career rush yds. WR Spencer currently
ranks 7th in the ACC in rec ypg. The OL avg 6’4” 308 with 2 Sr starters. State is avg only 3.6 ypc rush
& has all’d 28 sks (7.9%). NCSt has our #64 off & #79 def. The DL avg 6’3” 273 & has 21 of State’s 23
sks. The rush D is all’g 4.2 ypc. The line is led by HM ACC DE Willie Young who has a 680 lb squat. LB
Nate Irving is one of, if not the best D player & has 4 int (NCSt LB rec). The pass D is allowing 243 ypg
(#94 in the NCAA) but has 17 int (T-#13 NCAA). NCSt has our #41 sp tms. They are avg 23.2 on KR &
8.3 on PR while all’g 22 KR & 5.1 PR. The Knights have our #28 ranked off avg 29 ppg & 395 ypg. QB Teel struggled early but caught fire in the 2H breaking several RU records incl career pass TD’s. In the finale vs UL Teel broke the RU single gm rec’d with 447 yds & threw 7 TD’s tying a BE rec’d. Teel is avg 347 ypg (70%) & with a 20-5 ratio L/5 gms. The run game suffered early with Young inj’d in 1st gm. He ret’d but the ground game was still inconsistent avg 129 ypg (4.0). Teel has a slew of rec weapons incl WR Britt (#2 in NCAA in rec ypg with 114), Underwood & perhaps the fastest player ever at RU in Brown. With all of the attention on the WR’s, TE’s Brock & Graves are capable options. Schiano mixed up the OL early on before finding the right combo. They comb for 76 career sts avg 6’6” 302 & paved the way for 129 ypg (4.0) all’g 19 sks (5.0%). RU’s speedy D has our #52 ranking all’g 19 ppg & 324 ypg. The smallish DL avg’s 6’4” 261 all’g 139 ypg (3.8) with 15 of the tm’s 28 sks (54%) and is led by Sr’s Tverdov (13 tfl) & Westerman (10.5 tfl). The LB corps features the top 2 tklrs in Sr
Malast & Jr D’Imperio. The secondary has been much maligned TY. RU has our #111 pass eff defense all’g
185 ypg (61%) with a 9-7 ratio. They are led by 2x All-BE FS Greene who turned down the NFL to return for
his Sr ssn. RU has our #66 ST’s ranking & has found it difficult to replace LY’s K/P Ito. Two of the hottest teams matchup as RU comes into this game with 6 straight W’s and 9 straight covers while NCSt enters with 4 straight W’s and 7 straight covers. The QB’s have been just as hot as RU QB Teel finished with a 20-5 ratio run and NCSt QB Wilson with a 16-1 ratio. With the extra prep time we side with the O’Brien led squad that will have his young QB ready and RB Brown healthy. There’s no denying Rutgers is on an offensive roll but these two tms are evenly matched and the spread is too large.
FORECAST: NC STATE (+) THE PTS RUTGERS BY 1
RATING: 2* NC STATE

ALAMO BOWL

Ninth overall meeting (4-4) with the L/gm in ‘87. This is MU’s 1st Alamo Bowl while NU’s previous
visit was not an enjoyable one losing to Neb 66-17 (+14’ in ‘00). MU also has painful memories of
the Alamodome as they entered #1 prior to LY’s B12 Title gm before losing to OU 38-17 (+3). This
is Cats’ first bowl under HC Fitzgerald & they have not won a bowl since the ‘48 Rose Bowl (0-5 SU,
1-4 ATS). Under HC Pinkel, MU is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS in bowls (4-1 ATS Pinkel all-time). NU is 4-1 ATS
in domes while Mizzou will be playing in a dome for the 4th time the L2Y (2-1 SU/ATS). NU went 4-2
as a dog TY and has played just 4 bowl tms (2-2 SU/ATS) getting outscored 29-19 (-8 ypg). MU was
3-4 SU, 2-5 ATS vs bowl tms (+5 ppg, +36 ypg). The teams have a common foe in Illinois who is
the rival of both schools. The Tigers won 52-42 (-9) in their opener while the Cats (+2) beat the Illini
27-10 in its finale. Both are veteran squads with MU having 12 Sr starters and 16 upperclassmen
while NU has 9 and 15. NU last played on Nov 22 while MU played on Dec 6, and does have the
adv of a shorter trip (est 400 miles closer) & familar surroundings.The Cats’ 9-3 ssn is even more remarkable when you consider the fact that the tm’s strength coming into the ssn figured to be its Sr laden offense which featured RB Tyrell Sutton and QB CJ Bacher. Sutton broke his wrist and missed the final 4 gms of the ssn but is exp to return for the bowl. Bacher struggled (#87 NCAA pass eff) under new OC McCall and also missed 2 gms due to a hamstring inj. Bkup Mike Kafka ran for a Big Ten QB record 217 yds vs Minnesota which helped a run game that was down to its 3rd string TB by season’s end. The tm’s top 3 receivers are all Sr’s in Eric Peterman, Rasheed Ward and Ross Lane. The OL did a good job of pass blocking allowing just 17 sks (4.1%) but the run game was inconsistent with a 3.9 ypc. The defense carried the Cats as new DC Hankwitz’s unit improved in
nearly every area. NU went from allowing 411 ypg and 31 ppg in ‘07 to 343 and 19 this year. The team
had 33 sacks led by DE Wootton’s 9 which was a big upgrade from the 18 they had in ‘07. The injury
problems extended to the defense as their top LB, MLB Arrington, was lost for the season due to a
knee injury. The secondary is led by one of the Big Ten’s top S combos in leading tackler Brad Phillips
and Brendan Smith who made the Cats’ play of the year by ret’g an int 48 yds for a TD with :12 left to
beat Minnesota. The special teams are #63 in our rankings with reliable K Amondo Villarreal.
Missouri has been rather unimpressive after a 5-0 start TY (4-4 SU & 2-6 ATS) only outscoring opp’s
by 5 ppg (+ 13 ypg)! It also is a surprise that MU shared the B12 North Title with Neb after high expectations.
They do have our #8 off avg 43 ppg & 497 ypg. QB Daniel was in the mix of a lot of Heisman talk,
but that has gone away & he has thrown an int in 8 straight gms (2+ in 5 incl a lost fmbl the L/2). 2nd
TM B12 RB Washington has three 100+ yd gms & when he rushed for 70+ TY, the Tigers were a perfect
8-0! 1st TM B12 WR Maclin is a dangerous weapon not only catching passes, but on end-arounds &
in the return units. He is avg an amazing 204 ttl ypg! Mackey winner TE Coffman has been slowed by
a turf toe, but should be 100% here (MU’s all-time TE leader in rec/yds). The OL avg 6’5” 309 (2 Sr
starter) paving the way for 5.3 all’g just 15 sks (2.9%). The def is ranked #53, all’g 28 ppg & 414 ypg,
but has been torched for 100+ pts & 1,000+ yds the L/2 gms. The DL avg 6’3” 280 (3 Sr) accounting for
20 (71%) of MU’s 28 sks. The Tigers have a solid front 7 led by 1st Tm B12 LB Weatherspoon & DL’s
2nd TM B12 Sulak & 1st TM B12 Hood. S Moore (1st Tm B12) leads a secondary that is ranked #84 in
our pass eff def allowing 285 ypg (64%) with a 26-13 ratio (keep in mind they have faced 6 opp’s who
ranked #19 or higher in pass off, NU is #63). The Tigers have our #47 ST unit led by ex-diver 1st Tm
B12 K Wolfert & KR/PR Maclin who is threat to take it to the house everytime he touches the ball.
Mizzou had hoped for a better bowl coming into this season and are disappointed dropping their
L/2 gms getting outscored by a 102-58 margin. Northwestern beat just 2 bowl teams this season
and while a 9-3 record is commendable, they have been overly unimpressive. Missouri has the skill
players to exploit the Wildcats defense and posses a defensive unit that has faced much better
competition than this Northwestern offense can bring to the table.
FORECAST: MISSOURI BY 21
RATING: 3* MISSOURI

Pointwise

RUTGERS (7-5) vs NORTH CAROLINA STATE (6-6)

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Rutgers ...... 43.0 . 29- 19 ... 20-15 . 130-130 .. 266- 185 .. - 2 . Rutgers
No Caro St . 48.4 . 24- 26 ... 17-21 . 126-144 .. 201- 243 .. +11 . by 8.2 Pts

Talk about rising from the dead. Lazarus had nothing on these 2 squads, with
the Scarlet Knights of Rutgers standing at 1-5 thru week 6, and the Wolfpack
of North Carolina State needing a sweep of their final 4 games, to qualify for a
bowl, after opening at 2-6. But here they are, with the Knights sweeping their
final 6 games, & the 'Pack doing likewise in their last 4 outings. For Rutgers,
this marks their 4th consecutive bowl campaign, after being left out in the cold
for the previous 27 years! The insertion of Greg Schiano as head man, in '01,
has done wonders for the former doormat status of the Knights. In '05, they
nearly upset ArizonaSt in the Insight Bowl, & followed with routs of KansasSt
& BallSt in the Texas & International the past 2 years. They've averaged 43
ppg in those 3 post-season affairs, & despite the loss of RB Rice (4,926 RY
past 3 yrs), they figured to continue their upswing. Afterall, QB Teel, along
with 14 other returning starters augured well. But they opened at 0-3 SU, by a
combined 65½ pts ATS. But Teel took the team on his shoulders, winding up
at 3,099 PYs & 23 TDs (20 in his last 5 games), with 1,252 receiving yds by
Britt (2nd best in the nation). And note splendid 8-0 ATS run to wind up (+106
pts in RU's last 5 game). The 'Pack has also been a superb finisher, not only
on the field, but has been pure gold ATS, covering their last 7, including a 43
pt cover vs NoCarolina. They are led by Wilson, who has thrown for 16 TDs,
with only ONE INT. As a matter of fact he enters this fray, on a school-record
226 passes without an interception. Defensively, NCSt ranks just 94th vs the
pass. That, along with overwhelming Knight bowl success, could be decider.
PROPHECY: RUTGERS 38 - North Carolina State 24 RATING: 6

MISSOURI (9-4) vs NORTHWESTERN (9-3)

AOPR AVS FDS RUSH PASS TRN EDGE TO:
Missouri ..... 48.0 .. 43-28 .. 26-24 .. 156-129 .. 340-285.. - 2 . Missouri
N'Western .. 41.6 .. 25-19 .. 20-19 .. 148-128 .. 210-215.. - 5 . by 2.9 Pts
ANALYSIS
For the 2nd straight year, the Tigers of Missouri enter their bowl reward, fresh
off an embarrassing loss to Oklahoma, in the Big12 Title Game. A year ago,
they were ranked #1 in the nation, upon entering their game with the Sooners,
owning the 5th best offense, & 8th best scoring "O", but were routed, 38-17
(18-pt ATS loss). Thus a monumental letdown, & would be a nice "go-against"
come bowl time, right? Wrong. Try a 38-8 pulverizing of a decent Arkansas
team, in the Cotton Bowl (27-pt cover). Led by QB Daniel, who has thrown for
70 TDs the past 2 years, the Tigers enter this one at #6, both in total & scoring
offense, altho it must be noted that he threw 8 interceptions in Missouri's four
losses this year, 4 of which came in their final 2 tilts (29 & 24½ pt ATS losses).
For Mizzou, this marks its 4th consecutive bowl season, & thus far, the Tigers
have fared quite well, winning & covering their first 3, while scoring 38, 38, &
38 pts. Monotonous. Oh, by the way, they rank 100th, in total "D" (were 59th
in '07), as well as ranking 118th in passing "D", while allowing 102 pts in their
final 2 games. For the Wildcats of Northwestern, this is marks their 1st bowl
shot since the '05 Sun (50-38 loss to UCLA, despite a 584-453 yd edge). The
'Cats opened at 5-0, including an eye-opening upset at Iowa, as 9-pt dogs,
before settling in at 9-3, while finishing at #20 in the polls. RB Sutton is key,
but is hardly reliable (wrist injury). QB Bacher, no doubt, is licking his chops at
the prospect of facing the Tigers' porous pass "D", but he is only 14/14 for the
season. Northwestern has reached 200 RYs just once, since its opener, but
ditto, its rush "D". Bucking bowl-proven Tigs sure is frightening. So we won't.
PROPHECY: MISSOURI 38 - Northwestern 20 RATING: 6

Logical Approach

Papajohns.com Bowl - Birmingham, AL - Monday, December 29, 2008

These teams overcame sluggish starts to their seasons to finish strongly. It was hoped that their Bowl matchups would allow a play on each of them but as they are matched against one another a choice between them must be made. Even with their slow starts the teams combined for a stellar 15-5-2 ATS record. Rutgers closed the season on a 7-0-1 pointspread run while State covered each of their final 6 games. Rutgers is in a Bowl for a fourth straight season, winning the last two. NC State is back after a two season absence but had been to 7 Bowls between 1998 and 2005. Wolfpack coach Tom O'Brien had great success in Bowls while at Boston College. During his 10 years at BC O'Brien led his teams to 8 Bowls, winning the last 7 in a row and covering in 6 of those 7. Both teams faced North Carolina and South Florida and each went 1-1 with remarkably similar results. Rutgers beat South Florida by 33 and lost to Carolina by 32. State defeated Carolina by 31 but lost to South Florida also by 31. Total yardage stats for the games against the 2 common foes shows Rutgers + 22 (804 to 782) and State + 8 (731 to 723). For the season Rutgers does have edges in the passing game, both on offense and defense, and that may be enough to justify the solid favoritism they have been shown. But in most areas these teams are fairly even and getting at least a TD with a team playing as well as NC State played down the stretch and with a coach as accomplished in Bowl games as is O'Brien tilts the scales towards the underdog. Rutgers' passing game is enough to pull out the straight up win but the expectation is for the points to matter in this contest. Rutgers wins 27-24, making

NORTH CAROLINA STATE a 3 Star Selection
UNDER a 1 Star Selection .

Alamo Bowl - San Antonio, TX - Monday, December 29, 2008

Over the years Northwestern has been a good barometer for the strength of the Big 10 conference. Because of their high academic standards, when Northwestern's football team earns a Bowl bid it's generally a sign that the Big 10 is having a down season. The Bowl results reflect this, both in terms of Northwestern's individual results and those of the Big 10 a s a whole. Over the past 20+ seasons Northwestern has been to just 5 Bowls. Those appearances came between 1995 and 2005. Northwestern is 0-5 straight up and 1-4 ATS in their Bowls, losing by an average score of 47-28. In those same 5 seasons the Big 10's Bowl record is 14-20 straight up and 11-23 ATS. Missouri is in their fourth straight Bowl, having won in 2 of the past 3 Bowls. In each of the 3 Bowls Missouri scored exactly 38 points and this bowl should feature plenty of scoring by both teams as each team's offense is a strength whereas the defenses have been weaknesses. To be fair, Mizzou faced much tougher competition in the Big 12 than Northwestern did in the Big 10. Both teams faced Illinois this season. Missouri opened the season with a neutral site 52-42 win over the Illini in a game featuring nearly 1,100 yards of total offense, nearly evenly divided. Northwestern ended their season with a 27-10 home win over Illinois in a game in which the total yards were again almost evenly divided. Missouri played the overall tougher schedule - their 13 foes were a combined 83-63 S/U and 78-59 ATS. Northwestern's foes were just 69-75 S/U and a poor 55-64-4 ATS. Missouri has outstanding talent at the skill positions including QB Daniel and TE Macklin who should give the NW defense problems. There was only one true offensive powerhouse in the Big 10 this season, Penn State, and Northwestern did not have to face them this season. Given the potency of the Missouri offense and the fact that Mizzou has faced far tougher competition, combined with the poor Bowl record of Missouri, suggests Missouri should be able put plenty of points on the board and ultimately get clear of the impost. To be sure, Missouri will also surrender its share of points but in the end Missouri will distance itself from the Wildcats in a high scoring game. The call is for Missouri to win 48-30, making

MISSOURI a 4 Star Selection
OVER a 4 Star Selection .