Cleveland Browns vs. Buffalo Bills
Oddsmakers currently have the Bills listed as 5-point favorites versus the Browns, while the game's total is sitting at 42.
The Browns lost a tough 34-30 game to the Broncos last time out, as a 3-point favorite at home. The 64 points sailed OVER the posted total of 46.5.
Brady Quinn threw for 239 yards with two touchdowns in the loss.
The Bills lost to New England 20-10 as a 3.5-point underdog in Week 10. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (41).
Trent Edward was held to 120 yards passing with a touchdown and two interceptions for Buffalo, while Marshawn Lynch rushed for 46 yards on 14 carries.
Current streak:
Cleveland has lost 2 straight games.
Buffalo has lost 3 straight games.
Team records:
Cleveland: 3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS
Buffalo: 5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS
Cleveland most recently:
When playing in November are 4-6
When playing on turf are 5-5
After being outgained are 6-4
When playing outside the division are 6-4
Buffalo most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on turf are 6-4
After being outgained are 3-7
When playing outside the division are 6-4
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cleveland's last 15 games
Cleveland is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games
Cleveland is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 8 games at home
Buffalo is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games at home
Buffalo is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
Cleveland home to Houston, Sunday, November 23
Buffalo at Kansas City, Sunday, November 23
CLEVELAND (3 - 6) at BUFFALO (5 - 4)
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 2 seasons.
BUFFALO is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
BUFFALO is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
BUFFALO is 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
BUFFALO is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
CLEVELAND is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Cleveland at Buffalo
Cleveland: 8-1 ATS off BB Overs
Buffalo: 6-0 Under off BB ATS losses
CLEVELAND vs. BUFFALO
Cleveland is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games
Cleveland is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Buffalo is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills
Browns: Brady Quinn's first start at QB for Cleveland wasn't a success because it resulted in a loss, but that had little to do with his performance. The team's defense has allowed an average of 496.5 yards in the last two games and allowed Denver QB Jay Cutler to throw for a career-high 447 yards in a 34-30 loss. To make matters worse, Browns RB Jamal Lewis and KR Joshua Cribbs accused their teammates of quitting after the game. “It seems like the word ‘quit’ has taken a life of its own and grown a little bit bigger, and now the Browns are quitters and the coach has lost control of the team and there’s division in the locker room, and that’s not the case,” Cleveland head coach Romeo Crennel said. “These guys are going to play and play together. Whether we play good enough remains to be seen.”
Browns are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. teams with a winning record.
The UNDER is 11-4 in Cleveland's last 15 games overall.
Key Injuries - DT Shaun Rogers (knee) is probable.
S Sean Jones (knee) is probable.
G Eric Steinbach (ribs) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 14
Bills (-5, O/U 42): This is a huge game for Buffalo after New England suffered a 34-31 loss to the Jets on Thursday night to give New York sole possession of first place in the AFC East. The Bills will be looking to snap their season-high three-game losing streak and need to win in order to stay alive for a shot at the division title. “We have to get our swagger back,” Buffalo RB Fred Jackson said. “Going into these last couple of weeks, we haven’t had that normal swagger that we usually have. That’s something we want to address, because we know we’re better than we’re playing.”
Bills are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games on turf.
The OVER is 7-1-1 in Buffalo's last 9 games on turf.
Key Injuries - T Brad Butler (knee) is questionable.
S Donte Whitner (shoulder) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (Side Play of the Day)
Browns (3-6) @ Bills (5-4) Quinn gets first road start for a Cleveland team that blew 13+-point second half leads in last two games, only fifth NFL team to do that. Buffalo lost last three games, scoring just 14.3 ppg to fall into last place in AFC East. Buffalo is 3-1 at home, losing 26-17 to Jets when they turned ball over three times, one for 94-yard TD that turned game against them. Browns covered last three road games- they scored 26.7 ppg in last three games, but Quinn focused on Winslow in tough spots last week-- he'll need to find secondary receivers eventually. Under is 3-0-1 in Buffalo's last four games.
Browns at Bills
By Brad Young
Monday Night Football usually features a couple of league powerhouses, but the primetime lights this week will feature two teams in dire need of a victory. Cleveland and Buffalo enter this matchup by losing their last five games combined straight up and against the spread.
The winner can continue to harbor postseason aspirations, while the loser might be relegated to planning for the NFL Draft.
"The Bills started the season by going 4-0, and may have been a little overrated," stated VegasInsider.com handicapper Mark Franco. "As of late, the Bills have lost three straight games to divisional opponents and have not beaten a team with a winning record this year."
Caesars Palace installed Buffalo as a 5 ½-point home ‘chalk’ over Cleveland, with the total set at 42. The line opened with the Bills as a five-point favorite while the total has remained the same. ESPN will provide coverage of Monday Night Football beginning at 8:35 p.m. ET.
Cleveland (3-6 SU, 5-4 ATS) is currently mired in a two-game SU and ATS losing skid after falling to Denver November 6 as a three-point home ‘chalk,’ 34-30. The combined 64 points eclipsed the 46-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the second consecutive contest.
The Browns were in control of the game before getting outscored in the fourth quarter, 21-7. Cleveland finished that matchup trailing the Broncos in first downs (26-20) and passing yards (441-239), while leading Denver in rushing yards (160-123) and time of possession (32:09-27:51).
Signal caller Brady Quinn was 23-of-35 passing for 239 yards with two touchdowns in his first start as a pro. His favorite target was tight end Kellen Winslow who caught 10 passes for 111 yards and two scores, while Jamal Lewis paced the ground game with 19 carries for 60 yards and a touchdown.
"This will be Brady Quinn's first road start, and there will be pressure on him," said Franco. "This is the Browns' last shot to stay in the AFC Wildcard race."
Buffalo (5-4 SU, 4-5 ATS) has now dropped three games in a row SU and ATS after falling to AFC East rival New England last weekend as a 3½-point road underdog, 20-10. The combined 30 points failed to eclipse the 41 ½-point closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to improve 3-1 the past four outings.
The Bills finished the game trailing the Patriots in first downs (24-10), rushing yards (144-60), passing yards (226-108), turnovers forced (2-1) and time of possession (37:40-22:20). Quarterback Trent Edwards completed 13-of-23 passes for 120 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions, while running back Marshawn Lynch had 14 carries for 46 yards.
The Browns upended the Bills in a defensive struggle aided by inclement weather last season as a 4 ½-point home favorite, 8-0. The eight points never seriously threatened the 36-point closing total.
Cleveland defensive tackle Shaun Rogers (hand), tight end Darnell Dinkins (hamstring), offensive lineman Eric Steinbach (ribs), running back Lawrence Vickers (ankle) and defensive end Corey Williams (shoulder) are ‘questionable’ against the Bills.
Buffalo offensive guard Brad Butler (knee) and strong safety Donte Whitner (shoulder) are ‘probable’ versus the Browns, while tight end Robert Royal (ankle) is ‘questionable.’
Cleveland follows this matchup with a two-game homestand against Houston and Indianapolis, while Buffalo travels to Kansas City next weekend before hosting San Francisco and Miami.
Monday’s forecast for Buffalo, New York calls for a mixture of rain and snow, with a high of 37 degrees and a low of 27.
vegasinsider.com.
Cleveland (3-6, 5-4 ATS) at Buffalo (5-4, 4-5 ATS)
Two teams in desperate need of a victory square off tonight at Ralph Wilson Stadium when the Browns make the trek to Buffalo for a prime-time matchup.
Cleveland has dropped two straight (0-2 ATS) and three of four (2-2 ATS). The Browns have blown fourth-quarter leads the last two weeks, falling to Baltimore 37-27 as one-point home favorites on Nov. 2 and then losing 34-30 to Denver on Nov. 6 as a three-point home chalk, with the defensive giving up 564 total yards including 441 passing yards, including three fourth-quarter touchdown passes.
Brady Quinn made his debut as the Browns’ starting QB against the Broncos and was an impressive 23-of-25 passing for 239 yards and two TDs with no INTs.
Since opening the season with four straight wins, the Bills have dropped four of five SU and ATS including the last three in a row, all to AFC East foes. Last week in New England, Buffalo mustered just 168 total yards and fell 20-10 as a 3½-point ‘dog, and in their most recent home game, the Bills fell 26-17 to the Jets as five-point favorites. Buffalo has turned the ball over nine times and QB Trent Edwards has been sacked nine times during its current three-game slide.
Last year when these two squared off in Cleveland, the Browns got an 8-0 win as four-point favorites as the Bills managed just 232 yards of offense in blizzard-like conditions. Cleveland RB Jamal Lewis did the bulk of the damage, running for 163 yards on 33 carries.
Cleveland is on several positive ATS streaks, including 17-7 overall, 7-3 on the road, 12-5 against teams from the AFC, 13-3 against teams with a winning record and 9-3 following a non-cover. Buffalo is in pointspread ruts of 1-4 overall and 0-4 in November games, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 12-5 at home, 39-19-3 against teams with a losing record and 13-3 at home against teams with a losing road record.
Cleveland is 14-12 SU (15-11 ATS) in its last 26 Monday games while Buffalo is 17-21 SU (18-18-2 ATS) under the Monday night lights.
For the Browns, the over is 5-1 in their last six November games, but otherwise the team is on under streaks of 11-4 overall, 7-3 against AFC teams, 5-1 following a non-cover and 6-1 on the road. For the Bills, the under is on runs of 5-1-1 against AFC teams, 11-4 against teams with a losing record and 35-16-1 following a straight-up loss, but the over is on runs of 6-1-1 at home and 4-0 on Mondays.
Finally, the over is 9-2 in Monday night matchups this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Gametimepicks.com
No snow but plenty of cold winds on tap for Bills game
By Gene Warner
It looks as if Ralph Wilson Stadium might dodge a big white bullet tonight -- the lake-effect snow blast feared by weather forecasters.
But it will be pretty cold when the Buffalo Bills take on the Cleveland Browns in Monday Night Football.
"It's going to be cold and breezy, but we won't have to endure a national black eye by being buried under 6 inches of snow," National Weather Service meteorologist Mike Pukajlo said this morning.
That's the good news. The bad news is that it will be cold.
Temperatures in Orchard Park are expected to dip below freezing, down to the mid and high 20s, with winds brisk enough to send the wind-chill temperatures down to the high teens.
Late last week, forecasters expected that the nationally telecast game might be blasted by bands of lake-effect snow before or even during the game. Forecasters, though, pointed out that it's difficult to pinpoint exactly when and where the lake-effect snow might hit that far in advance.
This morning's localized National Weather Service forecast for southern Erie and Wyoming counties calls for a possible 1 to 3 inches of snow today and a similar amount tonight. Forecasters, however, expect the heaviest snowfall to be farther south than Orchard Park.
Like in Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, which already have been battered by the latest lake-effect snow. South Dayton, in the western part of Cattaraugus County, near the Cattaraugus-Chautauqua border, received 20 inches of snow Sunday and early today, the National Weather Service has reported.
Fans driving to tonight's game from those two counties still might have to deal with more snow. A lake-effect snow warning for the two counties remains in effect until 6 p.m., with the National Weather Service forecast calling for a possible 5 to 6 inches more today, and 3 to 5 tonight.
The lesser amounts forecast for Orchard Park have to come as a relief for law-enforcement officials, who had braced for the possibility of a heavy lake-effect snowstorm during or after the game. Unlike a Sunday afternoon game, a Monday night game with an 8:30 p.m. kickoff usually means that more fans would leave right after the game, at roughly 11:30 p.m., rather than stay around to tailgate for hours.
So authorities had braced for a massive traffic tie-up after the game, especially if a storm had struck during or after the game.
Bills and local law-enforcement officials are advising fans to come early, with the parking lots opening at 3:30 p.m. and entrance gates at 7 p.m. Fans are advised not to wait until the last minute to enter the stadium, especially with the pat-downs now employed at the entrance gates.
buffnews.com
NFL RESEARCH REPORT
By Indiancowboy
Cleveland vs. Buffalo
The line opened up here at -5.5 and that is where it currently resides. The total opened up at 42 and it sits at 40. Cleveland is 3-6 and they have obviously packed it in for the season as they have decided to go ahead and start Quinn to give him some reps and possibly look into the future. Now, having said this, do note that Denver is obviously no fluke and the job they did at Cleveland as they went on the road to defeat Atlanta and give the Falcons their first loss of the season. Thus, it only puts up the effort that Cleveland did at home in a better light. Remember, there is chance of inclement weather in this game, and even a 50% chance of snow. I am not sure if the public knows this because they are riding the over to a tune of 2:1 here and yet the total has dropped here a couple of points. The bottom line here for me is I lean on Buffalo given that they are coming off 3 straight losses and of course still in the hunt for the playoffs albeit a bit fading, and a lean on the under. In fact, my comp pick will be on the under.