Green Bay at New Orleans
By Brian Edwards

With both teams in dire need of victories to remain in the thick of the NFC playoff picture, Green Bay invades the Big Easy tonight to take on the Saints at the Superdome.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened New Orleans (5-5 straight up, 6-4 against the spread) as a 2½-point favorite with a total of 51½. As of early this morning, most books had adjusted the Saints to two-point ‘chalk’ with the total in the 51-52 range. Bettors can take the Packers on the money line for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

Green Bay (5-5 SU, 7-3 ATS) fell one-half game back of the NFC North co-leaders, Minnesota and Chicago, when both of those teams won Sunday. The Packers have covered the spread in five consecutive games, including last week’s 37-3 blowout win over Chicago as 3½-point home favorites.

Ryan Grant enjoyed his best game of the season against the Bears, rushing for 145 yards and one touchdown. Aaron Rodgers completed 23-of-30 passes for 227 yards and two TDs. The win snapped a two-game losing streak after Green Bay had dropped games at Tennessee and at Minnesota by four combined points.

Sean Payton’s team captured its first road win of the season last week, dropping Kansas City 30-20 as a six-point favorite. Drew Brees threw for 266 yards and one touchdown, while Pierre Thomas and Deuce McAllister had one rushing TD apiece. Thomas rushed for 88 yards on 16 carries.

Lance Moore was Brees’ favorite target, hauling in eight receptions for 102 yards and a 47-yard scoring strike from the NFL’s passing yardage leader. Brees has connected on 66.8 percent of his throws for 3,251 yards with an 18/11 touchdown-interception ratio.

Moore has a team-high 52 catches for 609 yards and five touchdowns. He has answered the call when injuries have forced WR Marques Colston, TE Jeremy Shockey and RB Reggie Bush to miss multiple games apiece. Colston and Shockey are back now, but Bush was downgraded to “doubtful” on Sunday.

Bush has missed three straight games since suffering a torn meniscus in a 30-7 loss at Carolina. Before going down with the injury, Bush was playing the best football of his career, scoring a pair of TDs against both the Raiders and Vikings.

Although the Packers are just 5-5 and Brett Favre has the Jets surging, the switch to Rodgers at QB has been a smooth transition. Even though he played several weeks with a painful shoulder injury, Rodgers maintains solid season numbers. The Cal product has completed 64.5 percent of his passes for 2,351 yards and a 15/6 TD-INT ratio.

Green Bay wide receiver Greg Jennings is having a Pro-Bowl type of year, making 48 catches for 865 yards and five touchdowns. Donald Driver has also been solid, bringing down 45 receptions for 572 yards and three TDs.

The difference between this year’s Packers and last is the ground attack (or lack therof this season). Grant is averaging only 3.9 yards per carry and last week was just his second 100-yard rushing effort.

New Orleans has won three of its four home games both SU and ATS, while Green Bay has lost three of its five road assignments. The Packers, who are 4-1 ATS on the road in 2008, are hoping to avoid their first three-game losing streak (SU, that is) on the road since 1995.

The Saints are back at home for the first time since a 34-3 win over Oakland way back on Oct. 12. Since then, they have played three road games, one game in London and had their open date.

The Packers have won seven of the last 10 meetings between these squads. Even better, they are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games against the Saints.

Kick-off is scheduled for 8:35 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The ‘over’ is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between the Saints and Packers.

--In 2008, these teams have both seen the ‘over’ go 6-3-1 overall. The ‘over’ is 2-1-1 for the Saints at home, 3-1-1 for the Packers on the road.

--Oakland quarterback JaMarcus Russell didn’t throw his first incomplete pass against Denver until 1:08 was left in third quarter. The Raiders snapped a four-game losing streak by spanking the Broncos 31-10 as eight-point road underdogs. Russell completed 10-of-11 passes for 152 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions.

--Bettors were presented with a bunch of line value for halftime wagers in the Carolina-Atlanta game. With the Falcons leading 17-3 at intermission, most books installed the Panthers as three-point favorites for the second half. Therefore, you essentially had Carolina plus 11 for the game. Atlanta had a 38-28 lead and was sitting on the ball while the Panthers used their last timeouts in the final two minutes. On fourth and six, Mike Smith elected to go for it, which temporarily thrilled Carolina second-half backers since a field goal would cover Atlanta second-half bets. However, Turner broke several tackles and raced 16 yards to paydirt to break the backs of Carolina second-half backers. The 45-28 win pulls the Falcons to within one game of the Panthers and Bucs for the NFC South lead.

--The 'over' is 11-1 on Monday Night Football this season.

vegasinsider.com.

Behind the lines: Monday Night Football
By T.O. WHENHAM

Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints (-1.5, 51.5)

On paper, this is the best Monday Night Football game in a while. It certainly is the most evenly matched MNF tilt in recent weeks, with both teams at least thinking about the playoffs.

The last two games have far exceeded their dubious looks, so hopefully that trend can continue. There should be a full supply of desperation on display when Green Bay travels to New Orleans. A loss for either team would be very costly.

The game opened with the home team giving the standard three points. The public didn't think that gave the Packers enough credit. Two-thirds of all bets are on the Packers. That has had the predictable effect of shrinking the line. It is now most commonly available at -1.5, though it has fallen as far as a pick 'em. The line movement isn't extreme or unexpected, so smart money isn't making a significant or noteworthy impact.

The location of the game plays to the strengths of both of these bettor-friendly teams. The Saints are 6-4 ATS and four of those six ATS wins have come in the friendly confines of the Super Dome. Green Bay is even better at 7-3 ATS and they are 4-1 ATS away from Lambeau Field.

Only one team can cover, obviously, so a solid trend will come up short here. Green Bay is the hotter team overall against the spread, having covered five in a row. New Orleans is just 3-3 ATS in their last six.

The total opened at 53.5 points. The over on Monday nights is perhaps the most brainlessly profitable bet of the entire season, yet the number is on the way down. It has dropped as far as 51.

The teams have identical over/under records, going over six times and pushing the number once in ten tries. Neither offense is at their most potent right now. Green Bay has gone under in two of its last three, while New Orleans has gone over just twice in its last five games.

History would tell us that these teams are likely to go over when they meet. They have done so in six of their last seven clashes. However, those seven games stretch all the way back to 1995.

Like most teams at this time of year, both the Packers and Saints are dealing with their share of injuries. The most prominent on each side provide some interesting symmetry.

Reggie Bush returned to practice Saturday but was limited due to a knee injury. Reports are that he will be held out again Monday. Absent on the other sideline is the man who would have been key in stopping Bush and the New Orleans running game.

Linebacker Nick Barnett's knee injury caused all sorts of dire predictions to be made about the doomed Green Bay defense, but the Packers were impressively solid against the run versus Chicago last week.

The quarterbacks won't be particularly familiar to the opposing defenses. Aaron Rodgers has obviously never made a start against the Saints. He did throw one pass in mop-up time back in 2005. It was a completion, so he is perfect against the Saints, for what it's worth.

Drew Brees has two career starts against the Pack, in 2003 with the Chargers and in 2006 with the Saints. The last start was a typical, solid Brees start. He threw for 353 yards passing and two touchdowns. Brees faces a bigger challenge here. Green Bay's pass defense is the third best in the league while the Saints are just five from the bottom.

Docsports.com

NFL RESEARCH REPORT
By Indiancowboy

Green Bay vs. New Orleans

You have a pair of 5-5 teams here. Note, the running back situation here as Bush is downgraded to Doubtful while McCalister has been upgraded to probable. Green Bay probably regrets letting go of Favre or at least treating him the way they did as I'm sure they have egg on their face right now. But, having said that, GB is still 5-5 and believe it or not maybe the public is starting to learn their lesson not to trust NO here as 55% are backing GB. Of course, the line opened up at NO -3 and quickly came down to -1 and the total believe it or not has come down as well. Frankly, I lean on the under in this game. GB's defense is actually fairly good - but having said that, I don't think GB has played back to back unders in quite some time, in fact, I am pretty sure GB has not played back to back unders all year. They come off a thumping of Chicago at home as that game went under as they won 37-3. Having said that, note this, NO has not covered back to back games all year. Here is a review:

@ KC: W ATS.
@ ATL: L ATS.
San Diego: W ATS
@ Carolina: L ATS
Oakland: W ATS
Vikings: L ATS (they got robbed in this game)
SF: W ATS
@ Denver: W ATS
@ Washington: L ATS
TB: W ATS.

So, this team has not lost back to back covers all year, nor have they won back to back covers for the last couple of weeks. They come off a cover at KC. I want nothing to do with this crap shoot.