Monday Night Football

Tips and Trends

Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans

Jaguars: Jacksonville continues to stumble after losing for the fourth time in five games last week. The Jaguars committed five turnovers, surrendered four sacks, missed two field goals and were flagged eight times in a 30-12 home loss to the Vikings, marking their lowest point of the season. “It was an embarrassing performance,” Jacksonville head coach Jack Del Rio said. “Might have been as bad as I’ve felt postgame.”

Jaguars are 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games on grass.
The OVER is 9-2-2 in Jacksonville's last 13 road games.

Key Injuries - WR Troy Williamson (groin) is day-to-day.
CB Omar Lowe (knee) is day-to-day.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

Texans (-3, O/U 48.5): Houston is coming off a 16-6 win at Cleveland last week behind QB Sage Rosenfels, who completed 24-of-32 passes for 275 yards. Rosenfels connected with WR Andre Johnson 10 times for 116 yards and is growing more confident since replacing the injured Matt Schaub. “It’s a great feeling,” Rosenfels said. “It’s a huge, huge win for us. Cleveland’s a tough place to play. For us to come in here and play like this shows a lot about our players and our coaches.” There is also a chance that Schaub could return for this game, as he has been practicing with the team.

Texans are 1-3 SU in their last 4 games overall.
The OVER is 13-3 in Houston's last 16 games overall.

Key Injuries -QB Matt Schaub (knee) is questionable.
RB Ahman Green (knee) is OUT.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side Play of the Day)

Jaguars (4-7) @ Texans (4-7)-- Jax won the first meeting 30-27 in Week 4 (-8); Houston lost despite three TD drives of 80+ yards. Houston won three of last four home games, is 1-3 vs spread when favored this season. Jaguars lost four of last five games, scoring 14-12 points last two weeks with only win in that stretch vs 0-12 Lions- they're 2-1 as dog. In last week's home loss, Jags gave up defensive TD on first play of game, then fumbled ensuing kickoff and trailed 14-0 in first 5:00. Eight of Houston's last ten games went over total. Home sides are 3-5 in AFC South games.

Jags-Texans MNF Preview
By Josh Jacobs

The gambling headline in this Monday Night Football game may actually focus more on the total score then the two teams that will actually be participating. More specifically is the 12-1 ‘over’ run that the last 13 Monday Nighters have cashed in on.

Week 12’s contest witnessed books getting slammed again. The total closed at 52 points when Green Bay and New Orleans squared off on the gridiron and a final score of 51-29 was more then enough for the ‘over’ machine to continue running.

Now a lackluster matchup between Jacksonville (4-7 straight up, 3-8 against the spread) and Houston (4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS) will put bettors’ skills to the test once again.

We’re talking about two teams that have taken a turn for the worst this season. Jacksonville came off an 11-game winning season during the ’07-08 campaign which witnessed the club submitting to New England in the divisional playoffs (31-20).

Houston was able to finish last season with its best record in franchise history at an even 8-8. Minus some key injuries, it was a successful year for the Texans in the grand scheme of things.

Then we turn the pages to the current season. The Jaguars have dropped four of their last five, are 2-6 ATS in their last eight and are an embarrassing 0-6 ATS in six home games. This is a year which Jacksonville would like to forget.

Quarterback David Garrard is coming off a 317-yard passing outing with one TD in a 30-12 blowout loss against Minnesota. But two interceptions thrown and four sacks on the day prevented the Jags from moving into striking distance.

The Texans snapped a three-game losing streak in Week 12, beating out the Browns 16-6. Houston was a three-point underdog in that contest while most books closed the total at a high 50 points. If there’s one angle to key on, and it runs directly perpendicular with the Monday Night total trend, it’s that the Texans are a solid 9-2 on the ‘over’ (4-1 on the ‘over’ at home).

Since taking over QB duties in Week 8, Sage Rosenfels has hurled up eight interceptions. But his 81.4 QB rating might surprise, completing 70 percent of his passes to help to bolster his efficiency on paper.

Helping the ‘over’ cash in Houston’s favor have been a defense allowing 26.6 PPG this season and 25.4 PPG at home, all while scoring 26.4 PPG inside its own stadium. The problem here is that the Texans have covered just one game at home in a total of five played (3-2 SU at home).

The home team is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings with the last ‘W’ going to Jacksonville in Week 4 of this season. In a 30-27 overtime shootout, Houston’s slinger Matt Schuab led the show with 307 passing yards and three trips into the end zone. The ‘over’ easily took tickets to the window (set at 43 points), while the Texans came out on top in the ATS department as 6 ½-point ‘dogs.

Be astute to the fact that Houston holds a horrible negative-10 turnover ratio this season (27th worst), while Jacksonville is just below average at negative-one. The Texans two QBs have combined to throw 17 interceptions this season.

And since we’re on the topic of overall efficiency we might as well throw in Houston’s last place ranking in red zone defense, allowing teams to score 23 TDs out of 32 attempts (72 percent).

Sportsbetting.com has installed the Texans as three-point home favorites with a total of 48 ½ tagged to this contest. This is the highest total installed in the last 10 head-to-head meetings dating back to 2003. The ‘over’ has cashed tickets in three straight of the meetings and is 4-2 in the last six.

The Jaguars have had a sharp discrepancy in the totals category. While going 2-0 on the 'over' when playing on artificial turf, Jacksonville has scored only 18.1 PPG on natural grass. The importance here is a 5-3-1 record on the 'under' when playing on the natural stuff.

And the difference doesn't stop there. The Jags have also failed to cover eight out of nine games played on grass this season. Remember that Reliant Stadium in Houston is comprised of living turf.

Jacksonville is 7-4 all-time in Monday Night games. This will be the Texans first game played on MNF.

vegasinsider.com

Behind the line: Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
By T.O. WHENHAM

I try to be optimistic and positive about Monday Night Football. I really do. It just hasn't been easy this year. Week after week recently we have had Monday Night games that have, to be kind, not that sexy of a matchup on paper. This week's game - Jacksonville at Houston - continues that fine tradition of bland mediocrity. The only saving grace has been that several of the games have been significantly better on the field than they looked like they should be. My fingers are crossed.

In football, the home-field advantage is generally thought to be about three points. When a line is set with the home team favored by three, then, that usually means that there isn't much to separate the two teams playing.

That is certainly the case on Monday night. Both Jacksonville and the host Texans are 4-7. Both have significantly underachieved in the face of the playoff expectations people held for the squads. Both have been unkind to bettors - 3-8 ATS for Jacksonville, 4-7 ATS for Houston. Both teams struggle to stop the run. Some people will have firm reasons to support one team or the other, but for most folks there won't be much that will work any better than the flip of a coin.

The public clearly doesn't see much more to differentiate these teams than I do. Volume is healthy on the game, though it hasn't been as heavily bet as some of the popular Sunday games. The action is nearly split right down the middle - 53 percent of the bets on Houston. As game time has drawn closer, Houston has gained slight momentum, but not enough to be noteworthy. The line opened at three and it has shown little interest in moving. It can be found at 3.5, but that's not widespread. There is no sign at all that smart money or any particularly aggressive action is in play here.

Thanks to the overwhelming over trend on Monday nights, the total is high - the opening 49 is the highest number Jacksonville has faced all year. It has since dropped slightly to 48. Heavy public action on the over as kickoff draws closer should ensure that the number won't go any lower. The Jaguars have been perfectly average on totals - 5-5-1 on the season. They have gone over in two of their last three, but for different reasons - an offensive explosion in one game and defensive ineptitude in the other. Houston is the most consistent over team in the league. Nine of its 11 games have exceeded the number, although the club is coming off a game against Cleveland that stayed under by four touchdowns. Houston's underwhelming defense is part of the reason, but the offense has at least as much to do with it. Few people, if asked, would correctly know that Houston has the fourth most productive offense in the league.

Like most everything else in this matchup, recent history between the teams doesn't point significantly to either side. They have evenly split the last 10 games straight up. It took overtime to find a winner when they met in September. The only thing to separate the teams is the spread - Houston has covered seven of the past 10 games.

With 12 players either banged up or out for the season, Houston isn't the healthiest team in the league. They are a model of durability, though, compared to Jacksonville and its 18 medical cases. For Houston, Matt Schaub still won't be starting, but he should be ready to be the backup. The biggest concern is Steve Slaton. The running back has chest and rib issues, but he says he is ready to go. Jacksonville's most immediate problem is QB David Garrard. His back has been problematic, but he returned to practice full on Friday, and should be ready to go.

Docsports.com

Jacksonville (4-7, 3-8 ATS) at Houston (4-7 SU and ATS)

The Jaguars visit Reliant Stadium in Houston to take on the Texans as both teams resume disappointing seasons.

Jacksonville has lost four of its last five games, including a 30-12 home loss to the Vikings last week as a one-point favorite. The Jags had five turnovers against the Vikings and allowed four sacks in their fourth straight home setback. On the bright side, Jack Del Rio’s team has been solid on the road lately, going 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four.

Houston snapped a three-game losing streak with a 16-6 road win in Cleveland last Sunday, cashing as a three-point road pup. Backup QB Sage Rosenfels threw for 275 yards and a TD but was picked twice in the second half to run his total to eight in his four starts for injured QB Matt Schaub.

The Texans have gone 4-1 SU and ATS the last five times the Jags have come calling in Houston, including a 42-28 win in 2007 as seven-point favorites. Earlier this season, the Jaguars got a 30-27 OT win but failed to cash as 6½-point favorites. The ‘dog is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two, and Houston has gotten the cash in four of the last five overall. Finally, the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 series battles.

Tonight marks Houston’s first-ever appearance in the Monday night spotlight, while the Jags are 7-4 SU (6-5 ATS) on Mondays in their franchise history.

Jacksonville is on ATS slides of 1-10 on grass, 1-5 against AFC competition and 1-4 against AFC South rivals, but they are on positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 in December and 11-1 in Week 13 games. Houston is 1-4 ATS at home this year, but the Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last seven December contests.

Both teams have been flying over the total lately, with the Jags on high-scoring runs of 15-5-3 overall, 9-2-2 on the road, 11-5-2 on grass, 13-3 in December and 8-2-2 after a non-cover. Meanwhile, Houston is on over stretches of 13-3 overall (9-2 this year), 5-1 at home (4-1 this year), 20-6 against AFC South rivals, 10-2 in December and 8-2 on grass.

Finally, the over is 11-2 on Monday nights this season.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Gametimepicks.com

NFL RESEARCH REPORT
By Indiancowboy

Houston vs. Jacksonville

Neither of these teams are going anywhere as both teams are 4-7, but this should make for a good game. Note that Garrard is listed as probable while Schaub is listed as probable. The Texans just come off a big win on the road at Cleveland while Jacksonville comes off a rout of a loss to the Vikings at home to a tune of 12-30. The Vikings by the way are rolling as the got revenge on the Bears at home this week. Note that this is a division game as well and Jacksonville beat this team in overtime back in late September so this is a big revenge game for Houston. Heck, they will get up for this game as Houston is actually a very tough place to play - ask the Colts who roll up their each year and Houston gives them a tough time each time around. Jacksonville did win at Denver, Indianapolis and Detroit this year. In fact, they have fared much better on the road than at home. Jacksonville is ranked 22nd on offense and 14th on defense while Houston is ranked 4th in offense and 20th in defense in the league - with their pass defense being 14th but their run defense 23rd and they are 27th in points allowed. I expect the Jags to run the ball a lot this game and Houston to look to airing the ball out. I lean slightly on the under here but frankly, no lean on the side.