Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers
Oddsmakers currently have the Panthers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Buccaneers, while the game's total is sitting at 38½.
The Buccaneers defeated New Orleans 23-20 as a 4.5-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (44.5).
Jeff Garcia passed for 119 yards with a touchdown for Tampa Bay, while Antonio Bryant caught three passes for 63 yards and a TD.
The Panthers defeated Green Bay 35-31 as a 3-point underdog last week. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (41.5).
DeAngelo Williams rushed for 72 yards with four touchdowns on 21 carries for Carolina, while Jake Delhomme passed for 177 yard with a touchdown run in the win.
Current streak:
Tampa Bay has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Tampa Bay: 9-3 SU, 7-5 ATS
Carolina: 9-3 SU, 6-5-1 ATS
Tampa Bay most recently:
When playing in December are 3-7
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 7-3
When playing within the division are 8-2
Carolina most recently:
When playing in December are 5-5
When playing on grass are 9-1
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tampa Bay's last 10 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Carolina is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games
Next up:
Tampa Bay at Atlanta, Sunday, December 14
Carolina home to Denver, Sunday, December 14
TAMPA BAY (9 - 3) at CAROLINA (9 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 35-19 ATS (+14.1 Units) in December games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Tampa Bay at Carolina
Tampa Bay: 9-13 ATS in road games
Carolina: 8-0 Under at home vs. divison
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Tampa Bay is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Carolina
Carolina is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Buccaneers (9-3) @ Panthers (9-3) - Winner here leads NFC South with three games left; Carolina (+2) got clobbered 27-3 in first meeting, with Bucs outrushing Panthers 142-40, picking off three Delhomme passes, but Carolina is 5-1 since then, and is 6-0 at home, winning by 3-15-34- 23-4-9 points. Home favorites are 6-2 vs spread in NFC South contests. Tampa Bay won last four games; they're 3-3 on road, with two losses by three points. Last three Carolina games went over total, but five of last seven Bucs games stayed under. Tampa outscored last four foes by combined total of 64-16 in 2nd half- they trailed four of last five at half.
Where the action is: Monday Night Football line report
By BETED.COM
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-3, 38.5)
Weather: Partly Cloudy, Temp 46° F, Wind ESE – light wind speed
The point-spread opened at: -3
The total opened at: 38.5
Where most of the bets are: Carolina
Where most of the money is: Split
Tampa Bay key injuries: DL Gaines Adams -hip (questionable)
Carolina key injuries: RB Jonathan Stewart -hamstring (questionable)
This will be the biggest game of the year for both these teams. Carolina is undefeated at home this season and hosting Monday night couldn’t have come at a better time to face off against their division rivals.
These two teams are tied at the top of their division with Tampa Bay holding the tie breaker because of its 27-3 win over Carolina Week 6.
Carolina will be looking for revenge and a first-place spot, while Tampa Bay will be trying to prove it truly is the best team in the NFC South. This has all the makings of being a Monday night classic.
The bettors are currently split with a slight lean towards the home team.
We have these two teams very evenly matched. We give each team almost 50/50 win odds, but Carolina has the national stage and that’s enough to make them the moderate favorites to win outright.
We will not be moving the line off of the three points.
NFL poolies' cheat sheet: Week 14 betting notes
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-3)
Why Buccaneers cover: Have won two of last three meetings. Cadillac Williams continues to make his way back from a serious knee injury and is expected to become more involved in the offense. Picked off Jake Delhomme three times in Week 6 victory. Underdog is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Why Panthers cover: Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Carolina. NFL’s 6th-ranked rush offense could flourish against Tampa Bay who will be without run stopper Jovan Haye who has a knee injury. Delhomme is 7-2 for his career against the Bucs.
Total (38 1/2): Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Carolina.
Charlotte, NC - Jeff Garcia took full advantage of a chance to get back into the starting lineup when he faced Carolina in October. In fact, the veteran rarely fails to impress against the Panthers.
Garcia looks to put together yet another solid effort versus the Panthers (9-3) as he leads the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-3) on Monday night in a matchup for sole possession of first place in the NFC South.
Oddsmakers from online sports book Sports Interaction have made the Panthers –3 point spread favorites (View NFL Football odds) for Monday’s game (Game Matchup). Current public betting information shows that 52% of bets for this game have been placed on the Buccaneers +3 (View NFL Football bet percentages).
After leading Tampa Bay to the playoffs in 2007, Garcia lost his starting job to Brian Griese in September after missing most of training camp with a calf injury and playing poorly in a season-opening loss at New Orleans.
Instead of sulking, Garcia focused on getting healthy and Buccaneers coach Jon Gruden insisted he never lost faith in him. Gruden just wanted the quarterback to revert to the player he was last season, and he gave him another chance to start when Tampa Bay faced Carolina on Oct. 12.
Garcia completed 15 of 20 passes for 173 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions in a 27-3 win, and has currently led Tampa to four straight wins.
His teams have won five in a row against the Panthers, with Garcia completing 60.4 percent of his passes for 1,178 yards and nine touchdowns against three interceptions in those games.
With his efficient play, Garcia seems to be the perfect player to lead the Buccaneers. He's completed 67.2 percent of his passes with eight TDs and three INTs, giving Tampa Bay a chance to win its second straight NFC South title.
After facing the Panthers, the Bucs play their final divisional game the following week at third-place Atlanta (8-4).
"That's the best scenario we can ask for because we don't have to sit around and wait for anybody," Tampa Bay cornerback Ronde Barber said. "We can take the NFC South the way we want to."
The Bucs will be facing a Panthers defense that has been inconsistent, but has 13 sacks in its last five games. Garcia's success against Carolina is partly due to his ability to escape the pass rush, avoiding a sack against the Panthers in each of his last two games against them.
Garcia, though, has been sacked nine times in his last two contests overall.
Carolina is led by defensive end Julius Peppers, who had two sacks in a 35-31 win over Green Bay last Sunday. Peppers, who has a team-high 11 sacks, has had two or more 16 times in his career.
Peppers has six sacks in six career home games against Tampa Bay.
The Bucs, meanwhile, intercepted Drew Brees three times and sacked him once to slow down the NFL's top-ranked offense during a 23-20 victory over New Orleans last Sunday.
Garcia was sacked four times and limited to 119 yards passing, but found Antonio Bryant for a 38-yard touchdown that put the Bucs up 20-10.
And Carnell "Cadillac" Williams continues to get more incorporated into the offense. He scored on an 8-yard run, his first TD since a career-threatening knee injury 14 months ago.
"That was big," said Williams, who gained 20 yards on four carries in his second game since being activated from the physically unable to perform list.
Williams, though, has struggled in five career games against the Panthers, averaging 3.4 yards on 80 carries.
Tampa Bay uses a rotation at running back with Warrick Dunn and Williams. Carolina does too, with DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart sharing the load.
DeAngelo Williams is coming off the best game of his career, setting a team record with four rushing TDs against the Packers. He leads the Panthers with 955 yards and 11 TDs on the ground.
Stewart, a rookie, has rushed for 586 yards and six TDs. Carolina is 9-1 when rushing for more than 100 yards.
Tampa Bay has proven to be vulnerable against the run at times, allowing 150 yards or more twice and at least 100 seven times. Carolina's ability to control the ball will go a long way in determining whether it will be able to take over the division lead.
"There are a lot of people who are fighting for their playoff lives, and we're one of them," Panthers coach John Fox said.
But the Panthers, with dangerous wide receiver Steve Smith, are also capable of quick strikes.
Smith's 54-yard catch set up Williams' fourth 1-yard TD run with 1:30 left versus Green Bay. Smith finished with four catches for 105 yards, all in the second half.
"He does that. He does those things," Peppers said. "We see that all the time."
Smith has 273 yards receiving in his last two games, and the three-time Pro Bowler is sixth in the NFL with 958 on the season.
Top Betting Trends:
All games in this series since 1992
CAROLINA is 10-6 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY since 1992
CAROLINA is 9-7 straight up against TAMPA BAY since 1992
11 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
All games played at CAROLINA since 1992
CAROLINA is 5-3 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY since 1992
CAROLINA is 4-4 straight up against TAMPA BAY since 1992
7 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992
Games played at CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 1-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
CAROLINA is 1-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Key Player Injuries
TAMPA BAY
[SF] Jermaine Phillips is out indefinitely - Arm - 10/28/08
[RB] Earnest Graham expected to miss rest of season - Knee - 11/17/08
[TE] Alex Smith missed last game, "?" - Ankle - 11/16/08
[WR] Maurice Stovall IR - Hamstring - 11/12/08
[FB] Byron Storer IR - Knee - 10/13/08
[RB] Carnell Williams is "?" - Knee - 11/16/08
[LB] Geno Hayes injured last game, doubtful - Knee - 11/17/08
CAROLINA
[WR] Ryne Robinson IR - Knee - 10/08/08
[DL] Darwin Walker missed last game, "?" - Neck - 11/16/08
[C] Ryan Kalil missed last game, "?" - Ankle - 11/16/08
[LB] Dan Connor IR - Knee - 09/22/08
Tampa Bay (9-3, 7-5 ATS) at Carolina (9-3, 6-4-2 ATS)
Sole possession of first place in the NFC South is on the line tonight when the Buccaneers visit Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte to face the Panthers.
Tampa Bay is a four-game winning streak (2-2 ATS), including last weekend’s 23-20 home win over the Saints, just missing as a 3½-point favorite. QB Jeff Garcia has been the catalyst for the Bucs’ offense, completing 67.2 percent of his throws with eight TDs and three INTs. Garcia has never lost to the Panthers, going 5-0 with 1,178 yards, nine TDs and three INTs.
Carolina has won five of its last six (3-3 ATS) and return home after two straight road games – a 45-28 loss in Atlanta back on Nov. 23 as a one-point ‘dog, and last week’s 35-31 come-from-behind victory at Green Bay as a three-point underdog at Lambeau Field. RB DeAngelo Williams rushed for four scores against the Packers and he leads the Panthers with 955 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns.
These division rivals have alternated wins and losses in the last four meetings with each squad getting a home and road win. Back on Oct. 12, Tampa scored a 27-3 victory at home as a one-point chalk with the Bucs’ defense dominating with three interceptions and outrushing Carolina 142-40, limiting Williams to 27 yards on 11 carries.
Carolina has won seven of the last 10 meetings in this rivalry (6-4 ATS), and the Panthers are 5-2 ATS in the last seven clashes at home. Finally, the underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 series meeting and the straight-up winner is 9-1 ATS since 2003.
Tampa Bay is 8-8 SU and 9-7 ATS on Monday nights (2-5 SU and ATS on the road), while Carolina is 14-9 SU (14-8-1 ATS) under the Monday night spotlight (10-5 SU, 10-4-1 ATS at home).
The Bucs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five on the road against teams with a winning home record, but otherwise they are on pointspread streaks of 5-2 against teams with a winning record and 7-3 against NFC South rivals. The Panthers are on ATS slides of 1-4 after a straight-up win and 1-4 in Week 14 games, but they are on positive spread streaks of 6-2-1 at home, 9-3-1 on grass and 6-1 in December.
Tampa Bay has topped the total in eight of its last 10 road games, but otherwise the Bucs are on “under” streaks of 6-2 overall, 6-2 on Monday nights, 5-1 against NFC foes and 5-0 against teams with a winning record. Carolina has gone over the posted number four of its last five overall, in four straight against the NFC and eight of 11 December games, but the Panthers are on “under” runs of 10-3 at home, 7-2 against NFC South rivals and 9-4 after a straight-up win.
Finally, the over is 11-3 in Monday night contests this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA
Gametimepicks.com
Tampa Bay at Carolina
By Brad Young
Playoff positioning in the ultra competitive NFC South takes center stage on Monday Night Football when Tampa Bay travels to Carolina. Both squads are tied atop the division with 9-3 records, with the winner of this contest earning the inside track to the NFC’s second seed and a first-round bye.
Tampa Bay (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) is a modest 3-3 SU and ATS when playing on the road, with the ‘over’ going 4-2. The Bucs have outscored their opponents this season, 280-200, and throttled the Panthers October 12 as a 1½-point home favorite, 27-3. The combined 30 points failed to eclipse the 37-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ improve to 3-1 the previous four games in this series.
Carolina (9-3 SU, 6-5 ATS) sports an unblemished 6-0 SU home ledger, while going just 3-2 ATS. The Panthers have outscored the opposition this season, 285-231, but need a victory in this spot after suffering an earlier setback to Tampa Bay. Carolina enters this matchup with a 2-2 record inside the NFC South Division, while the Bucs maintain a 3-1 ledger.
Caesars Palace installed Carolina as a three-point (-115) home ‘chalk’ over Tampa Bay, with the total set at 38. ESPN will provide coverage of Monday Night Football beginning at 8:35 p.m. ET.
Tampa Bay is riding a four-game SU winning streak after slipping past New Orleans last weekend as a four-point home favorite, 23-20. The Bucs had covered back-to-back outings before facing the Saints. The combined 43 points slithered ‘under’ the 44-point closing total, enabling the ‘under’ to improve to 6-2 the past eight outings.
The Buccaneers finished the contest with advantages in rushing yards (149-44) and turnovers forced (3-1). Veteran signal caller Jeff Garcia completed 9-of-23 passes for 119 yards with a touchdown, while Warrick Dunn had 22 carries for 74 yards in the setback.
Carolina outlasted Green Bay last weekend as a three-point road underdog, 35-31. The Panthers had failed to cover their previous two games before upending the Packers. The combined 66 points soared past the 41-point closing total, helping the ‘over’ cash the third straight matchup.
Carolina trailed in almost every meaningful category except for turnovers forced (2-1). Signal caller Jake Delhomme was 12-of-17 passing for 177 yards, while running back DeAngelo Williams had 21 carries for 72 yards and four touchdowns.
Tampa Bay wide receiver Michael Clayton (knee), defensive end Kevin Carter (illness) and defensive end Gaines Adams (hip) are ‘questionable’ against the Panthers, while defensive tackle Jovan Haye (knee) is ‘doubtful.’
Carolina running back Jonathan Stewart (hamstring) is ‘questionable’ versus the Bucs, while linebacker Adam Seward (ankle) and defensive end Hilee Taylor (calf) are ‘doubtful.’
Tampa Bay follows this contest with a road game against Atlanta before ending the regular season with a two-game homestand against San Diego and Oakland. Carolina hosts Denver next weekend before going on the road versus the New York Giants and New Orleans.
Monday’s forecast for Charlotte, North Carolina is calling for a high of 48 degrees and a low of 33, with cloudy skies and just a 10 percent chance of precipitation.
vegasinsider.com
NFL Preview
By Indiancowboy
Tampa Bay vs. Carolina
Well, I will be watching this game for several reasons not withstanding, the winner of this game will have an impact undoubtedly on the Falcons and the other NFC teams that are looking to roll into the playoffs. As per this game, the line opened up at Carolina -3 and moved up to 38.5 from an opening total of 38. The public is on Carolina to a tune of 56%. Some interesting numbers here where the home team is 6-0 in their respective stadiums and the road team is 3-3. Jeff Garcia has thrown for more than 1900 yards and thrown for 8 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Jake Delhomme has thrown for 2400 yards and thrown for 12 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. Tampa Bay comes off a big win over New Orleans at home and now hits the road to face Carolina who comes off a big win over Tampa Bay. Don't forget that Carolina stomped on New Orleans earlier this year 30-7, Tampa Bay looked shaky against the Lions on the road, only beat the Chiefs by a field goal on the road in overtime, while Carolina stomped the Chiefs 34-0, beat the Falcons by DD at home and beat Arizona by a greater margin than this spread. I have no play on this game, but I lean on Carolina with a smaller lean on the over. Tampa Bay is 4th in the league in defense and 12th in the league in offense while Carolina is 17th in offense and 12th overall in defense - and 7th in points allowed. Having said that, it seems that Carolina has had much more success with greater margin of victory at home while TB has been getting fortunate with some close wins on the road, once again, a lean on Carolina and a smaller lean on the over.
Monday Night Preview
By Wunderdog
Tampa Bay at Carolina
After having to endure two horrible prime-time games over the past week (Jac-Hou last Monday and Oak-SD on Thursday), we finally get a great game between two great teams with playoff implications! Tampa Bay and Carolina are tied for the division lead at 9-3, so the winner here certainly will control their own destiny over the last three weeks of the regular season. The Panthers have won five of six thanks to Jake Delhomme and DeAngelo Williams. Williams started the season as an average back, as over the first seven weeks he was able to grind out 417 yards on 104 carries, good for 4.0 yards per carry. But, he has emerged over the last five weeks as one of the top backs in the league, rushing for 541 yards on 90 carries, good for 6.0 yards per attempt - a 50% increase! Delhomme is ranked #17 in the league in QB rating, but that is very misleading. Over the last nine weeks he has had two bad games where he threw seven INT's and one TD pass. In the other seven games (a much larger body of work), he threw nine TD's to just one INT. And in those seven games his QB rating was 109.5, which would be top in the league over the last four years, barring Brady's 117.2 a year ago. His rating in the Panthers last five home games has been 113.2 and it is no coincidence that the Panthers have put up 29.2 ppg in those games. But, he's facing a Bucs defense ranked 4th in the league in yards allowed. They are behind only these defensive stalwarts: Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Tennessee. They are also ranked 4th in points allowed, giving up just 16.7 per game. The Tampa Bay offense has been very efficient of late as well, stabilized by Jeff Garcia who doesn't make a lot of mistakes, managing the game well. Garcia has missed games with injuries, and was part of a QB shuffle early, but he has won the job with his play. He has started the last three games in which the Bucs have turned it up a notch on offense, averaging 26.7 ppg. Can Garcia and the Bucs offense have success against the Panther's defense, ranked #7, allowing 19.3 ppg? My computer matchup for this game has the Panthers winning a close one.