Tips and Trends
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
Packers: Green Bay's defense has been a major disappointment this year, overshadowing what has been a solid yet unspectacular year for QB Aaron Rodgers in replacing living legend Brett Favre. Charles Woodson pointed to one particular situation that occurred in the team's 20-16 loss at Jacksonville last week, as LB Brady Poppinga and CB Al Harris were seen arguing after a 35-yard pass play. “When you see what you saw today, you know how bad it is,” Woodson said. “When you have two players on the field arguing with each other, you have them on the sideline arguing with each other, then you know it’s bad.”
Packers are 0-4 SU & ATS in their last 4 games overall.
The OVER is 9-2-1 in Green Bay's last 12 road games.
Key Injuries - RB Brandon Jackson (wrist) is probable.
S Atari Bigby (shoulder) is doubtful
PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (OVER - Total Play of the Day)
Bears (-4, O/U 41): Chicago has revenge on its mind after suffering a 37-3 loss at Lambeau Field back on November 16th. The Bears have not been swept by the Packers under head coach Lovie Smith but has split the last four meetings at Soldier Field. "They did whup on us pretty good the last time we met,” Chicago WR Devin Hester said. “We still have it in the back of our heads. We have a long week to prepare - a couple extra days - and we’ll prepare for them, and hopefully this week come out ready to play them.”
Bears are 2-7 ATS in the last 9 meetings at Chicago.
The OVER is 20-7 in Chicago's last 27 home games.
Key Injuries - RB Matt Forte (toe) is probable.
WR Marty Booker (ribs) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears
Oddsmakers currently have the Bears listed as 4-point favorites versus the Packers, while the game's total is sitting at 40.
The Packers lost to Jacksonville 20-16 as a 3-point favorite last week. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (45.5).
Aaron Rodgers threw for 278 yards with a touchdown and an interception for Green Bay and James Jones caught four passes for 132 yards.
Robbie Gould kicked a 35-yard field goal to lift the Bears to a 27-24 victory over the Saints in Week 15. The Bears could only PUSH against the 3-point spread, while the 51 points made it OVER the posted total of 46.
Matt Forte carried the ball 11 times for 34 yards and a TD, while QB Kyle Orton threw for 172 yards and ran for a touchdown in the win.
Current streak:
Green Bay has lost 4 straight games.
Chicago has won 2 straight games.
Team records:
Green Bay: 5-9 SU, 6-7-1 ATS
Chicago: 8-6 SU, 6-6-2 ATS
Green Bay most recently:
When playing in December are 7-3
When playing on grass are 3-7
After outgaining opponent are 5-5
When playing within the division are 7-3
Chicago most recently:
When playing in December are 6-4
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing within the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
Green Bay is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Green Bay's last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Green Bay's last 19 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games at home
Chicago is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Chicago's last 19 games when playing at home against Green Bay
Next up:
Green Bay home to Detroit, Sunday, December 28
Chicago at Houston, Sunday, December 28
GREEN BAY (5 - 9) at CHICAGO (8 - 6)
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 43-26 ATS (+14.4 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-2 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Green Bay at Chicago
Green Bay: 9-1 ATS off non-conference game
Chicago: 17-4 Over as home favorite
GREEN BAY vs. CHICAGO
Green Bay is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games at home
Packers (5-9) @ Bears (8-6)-Chicago won three of last four games, has extra prep time after beating Saints Thursday; they'll be out to avenge a 37-3 loss at Lambeau in Week 11, when Pack had 200 rushing yards, but thats last game Green Bay won. Packers lost last four games, giving up average of 32.3 ppg- opponents scored 17 TDs on 44 drives in last four Packer games. Five of seven Chicago home games went over total; faves are 7-4 vs spread in NFC North games this season. Check weather if you are interested in investing in total; can get dicey on Lake Michigan.
Green Bay at Chicago
By Brad Young
A pair of cold weather rivals collide in less than ideal circumstances on Monday Night Football. NFC North foes Green Bay and Chicago meet at Soldier Field, where Monday’s high is projected to eight degrees with a low of two.
The Packers have been reduced to the role of spoiler due to a late-season skid, while the Bears are still fighting for a playoff slot. Chicago still has a slight shot at the NFC North title, but most likely will be relegated to the wildcard if it continues its winning ways.
Caesars Palace currently lists Chicago as a four-point home ‘chalk’ over Green Bay, with the total set at 41. The line opened at 4½ with the total listed at 41½. ESPN will provide coverage of Monday Night Football beginning at 8:35 p.m. ET.
Green Bay (5-9 straight up, 7-7 against the spread) enters this matchup mired in a four-game SU and ATS losing skid after falling to Jacksonville last weekend as a three-point road favorite, 20-16. The combined 36 points failed to topple the 46-point closing total, helping the ‘under’ cash the second consecutive contest.
The Packers appeared headed to victory until getting outscored in the fourth quarter, 13-3. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers completed 20-of-32 passes for 278 yards with a touchdown and an interception, while running back Ryan Grant had 21 carries for 56 yards.
Chicago (8-6 SU, 6-6 ATS) improved to 3-1 SU its last four games after slipping past New Orleans in overtime December 11 as a three-point home ‘chalk,’ 27-24. The combined 51 points went ‘over’ the 46-point closing total.
The Bears prevailed despite trailing the Saints in first downs (22-16), rushing yards (119-55), passing yards (232-172), turnovers forced (3-2) and time of possession (36:32-26:14). Quarterback Kyle Orton was 24-of-40 passing for 172 yards with two interceptions, while Matt Forte had 11 carries for 34 yards and a score.
The home team has won the last two games in the Green Bay-Chicago series by a combined 62 points. The Packers routed the Bears November 16 as a 3 ½-point home favorite, 37-3, while the combined 40 points went ‘under’ the 43-point closing total.
Green Bay linebacker Danny Lansanah (arm), fullback Korey Hall (knee) and defensive tackle Justin Harrell (hip) are ‘questionable’ versus the Bears.
Chicago running back Matt Forte (toe) is listed as ‘probable’ against the Packers, while wide receiver Marty Booker (leg) and fullback Jason McKie (quad) are ‘questionable.’
vegasinsider.com.
What's on the line: Monday Night Football
By T.O. WHENHAM
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-4, 40)
In a perfect world, this game between the Packers and the Bears would have high stakes for both teams.
But it doesn't.
The Packers have only managed one win in their last seven. The Bears couldn't need this game more. A loss here would all but end their playoff hopes, especially if Minnesota wins on Sunday.
Given that, it would seem easy to pick the Bears. That may be the case but there is a wrinkle. That lone win for the Packers was a decisive 37-3 win over the Bears just over a month ago.
The line opened at 4.5 and it has dropped as low as 3.5 in many books. That line movement is somewhat surprising given the bet distribution. More than 60 percent of bets have been on the Bears at home. That counter-intuitive line movement could be an indicator that smart money is in play for the Packers.
If Green Bay were to cover it would end a rough streak for its backers. The Packers haven't covered in four games. Even with that they are 7-7 ATS on the season, so this was once a reliable team to back. The Bears are 6-6-2 ATS and are just 2-2-1 ATS in their last five.
Playing the total on Monday nights has been eerily simple this season. The over/under is 11-3-2. The public obviously loves the over and they have been handsomely rewarded for their blind loyalty. So it is somewhat surprising that the total is dropping. It opened at 43, and is down as far as 40 points. Green Bay has gone under in its last two games and Chicago has gone under in four of its last six.
The weather is going to be a factor and is likely a big reason for the total movement. There is a good chance of evening snow on Monday to add to all the snow that has been falling for days. And the wind chill will have it feeling like it is below zero.
Chicago was humiliated the last time the teams met but that was an exception to the recent rule. Chicago has won five of the last seven meeting and are 4-2-1 ATS over that stretch. Four of those seven games have gone under, including the most recent meeting.
Motivation could be a real factor for the Bears. By the time they play the game, they will know what the Vikings have done. A Minnesota win clinches the NFC North for the Vikings and the Bears would need a lot of help to get a wild card spot. It is possible that the team will be severely deflated at game time. If there was ever an argument to hold off on making your bet until Monday, this is it.
Motivation also presents a puzzle for the Packers. If the Bears are still alive on Monday then Green Bay could play spoiler. That and its earlier success against Chicago could motivate this team to heights well beyond recent accomplishments. On the other hand, the only thing that the Packers have looked motivated to do in recent weeks is to get this ugly season over with.
Green Bay (5-9, 7-7 ATS) at Chicago (8-6, 6-6-2 ATS)
The Bears will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive tonight when they host the rival Packers at Soldier Field.
Chicago trails the Vikings in the race for the NFC North, and even though Minnesota lost at home to the Falcons on Sunday, Chicago still needs to win its final two games and hope the Vikings lose next week at the Giants to claim the North title. The Bears are also barely alive in the NFC wild-card chase.
The Bears haven’t been on the field since Dec. 11 when they edged the Saints 27-24 in overtime, pushing as a three-point home favorite. Chicago blew a 21-10 fourth-quarter lead, then went on a 60-yard drive in the final 3:03 to get the tying field goal at the end of regulation, with QB Kyle Orton going 8-of-11 on the critical drive. RB Matt Forte, who is expected to play despite a toe injury, needs just 69 rushing yards to break the franchise’s rookie rushing record of 1,183 set by Anthony Thomas in 2001.
Green Bay has lost four straight (0-4 ATS) and six of its last seven (3-4 ATS), including last week’s 20-16 setback in Jacksonville as a 2 ½-point chalk. The Packers’ last three defeats have come by a total of 11 points, and 38 of the 79 points they’ve given up in the last three contests have come in the fourth quarter. Mike McCarthy’s squad has dropped four in a row on the road (2-2 ATS), and they’re allowing 27.1 points and 132.9 rushing yards per game away from Lambeau Field this season.
Five weeks ago, the Packers destroyed the Bears 37-3 as 3½-point ‘dogs at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, finishing with a 427-234 edge in total offense. The home team has won the last two matchups between these two (2-0 ATS) after a four-game streak by the visitor from 2005-07 (3-0-1 ATS). Also, the Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine trips to Soldier Field. Finally, the straight-up winner is 9-0-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings.
Green Bay is 26-26-1 SU and 28-24-1 ATS all-time on Monday night (1-1 SU and ATS this year), while the Bears are 18-33 SU and 17-32-2 ATS under the Monday spotlight, including just 7-13-1 ATS at Soldier Field.
Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six games after a non-cover, but otherwise the team remains on positive ATS streaks of 13-5-1 on the road, 9-3-1 as a road ‘dog and 5-0 against NFC North rivals (all this season). Chicago is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five after a straight-up win and 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 as a home favorite, but the Bears are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five December games.
The Packers are on a bevy of “over” streaks, including 22-8-1 overall, 21-8-2 against NFC competition, 7-3 on Mondays, 9-2-1 on the road and 6-1 against division rivals. The Bears are on “over” runs of 20-7 at home, 20-9-1 as favorites, 5-1 in Week 16 games and 5-0 at home against teams with a losing road record.
Finally, the over is 20-6-2 in non-Sunday NFL games this year, including 12-3-1 in Monday night contests.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Gametimepicks.com
NFL Research Report
By Indiancowboy
Green Bay vs. Chicago
This team comes off a tough loss to Jacksonville who desperately needed that game for morale losing 16-20 on the road. The Packers after covering 5 straight games have now lost four straight covers. Take a look at their latest ATS Stretches here: Before, I forget, this is a HUGE game for the Bears. After all, the Chargers kept their hopes alive of going to the playoffs and defeated the Bucs on the road. Considering that the Falcons are going to go dancing regardless it seems as they not only beat the Bucs at home, but then went on the road to beat the Vikings and host the Rams at home this week, it seems that my Falcons will easily secure themselves a playoff spot as it is a dog fight between the Cowboys, Bucs, Eagles and Bears. And, considering the Bucs, Eagles and Cowboys all stunk it up this past week, it leaves the Bears in a great position if they can just manage to win this game. Now, back to what the Packers have done:
@ Jacksonville: (Loss 16-20)
Houston (Loss 21-24)
Carolina (Loss 31-35)
@ New Orleans (Loss 29-51)
Chicago (Win 37-3)
@ Minnesotta (Loss: 27-28)
@ Tennessee (Loss: 16-19)
Indianapolis (Win: 34-14)
@ Seattle (Win: 27-17)
You can tell the Pack are a team of streaks, but more importantly although this game means a lot to the Bears, they have tons of revenge coming into this game, this is a playoff game in many respects for the Packers b/c they will not be going to the playoffs and would like nothing more than to ruin the Bears' chances of going to the playoffs as well. A lean on the over here.