Monday Night Football Betting News and Notes

NFL Tech Trends - Week 1
By Bruce Marshall

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins....Belichick crushed Sparano in the two meetings LY (41-14 & 38-7), although he had dropped 4 of previous 5 vs. points against Dolphins. Belichick “over” 6-2 away LY and also “over” 15-3 last 18 since late ‘09. Sparano 2-6 vs. line at home LY as Dolphins continue to provide no spread value at home (14-34 last 48 dating to late 2004). Tech Edge...Patriots and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos....Hue Jackson Oakland debut, John Fox Denver debut. Raiders destroyed Broncos in both games LY and have covered five straight in Denver. Oakland 8-2 vs. spread last 10 in series. “Overs” 6-2 last eight meetings. Broncos only 4-9 vs. line last 13 at home. Tech Edge...Raiders and “over,” based on series and “totals” trends.

NFL Week 1

Patriots @ Dolphins - Hard to endorse a team that got booed by its own fans during training camp practices, and I’m not talking about the Patriots. Belichick is 12-5 in last 17 series games, winning three of last four here, with all three wins by 20+ points- average total in last six series games is 52.8. Since 2004, Pats are 26-13 vs spread as a road favorite, 14-5 vs AFC East foes. Miami lost seven of last eight home openers (0-5 vs spread in last five). Miami is 6-9 vs spread as a home dog last four years. Six of Miami’s last nine home openers went over. This is first time in six years Patriots’ first road game isn’t against the Jets.

Raiders @ Broncos - Oakland hasn’t won season opener since ’02, but they won last three visits here and waxed Broncos twice LY, 59-14/39-23; since 2003, Raiders are 29-35 vs spread on road. Denver is 12-27-1 vs spread at home last five years. Fox is terrific coach, but was awful in home openers at Carolina (1-7 vs spread in last eight, 1-6 in last seven SU); Broncos are on 11-game win streak in home openers (9-3 vs spread in last 12 Week 1 home openers). Over is 9-3 in Raiders’ last dozen road openers. Over last five years, road teams are 37-22-1 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Only game this week where both head coaches are in first game with this team.

Patriots at Dolphins: What Bettors Need to Know

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+7, 45.5)

THE STORY: Bill Belichick is the master of the poker face and non-disclosure, but the coach of the New England Patriots made no secret of his strategy this offseason: He’s all in.

Following a second straight home playoff loss, Belichick brought in a bevy of high-profile veterans – most notably Chad Ochocinco and Albert Haynesworth – in a shocking pair of trades following the lockout.

Even for a franchise that has a reputation of being a halfway house for malcontent stars (see: Randy Moss and Corey Dillon), those acquisitions scream out that nothing less than another Super Bowl ring will satisfy Belichick. New England’s quest begins Monday night at AFC East rival Miami.

TV: ESPN, 7 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (2010: 7-9, 3rd, AFC East): Miami had its own share of offseason drama. QB Chad Henne remains the starter after a much-publicized failed trade for Denver’s Kyle Orton, and star WR Brandon Marshall was stabbed in the abdomen (allegedly by his wife) and later revealed that he suffers from borderline personality disorder.

The Dolphins have their own personality issues as a team, particularly a stunning inability to win at home (1-7) last season. The RB tandem of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams was scuttled in favor of ex-Saint Reggie Bush and second-round rookie draft pick Daniel Thomas.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (2010: 14-2, 1st, AFC East): Behind unanimous MVP selection Tom Brady, New England was an offensive juggernaut last season, running up a league-high 518 points before being run out of the playoffs by the Jets.

Belichick overhauled a defense that couldn’t sniff a QB by bringing in the massive Haynesworth along with pass rushers Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter.
Ochocinco did not make much of an impression in preseason as he tries to adjust to an offense that spreads the ball around. That Patriots drafted RBs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley to back up 1,000-yard rusher BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady won his second MVP award after throwing 36 touchdowns against only four interceptions last season. He set an NFL record with a streak of 335 completions without an interception. The last time he was picked off in the regular season was against Baltimore on Oct. 17, 2010.

2. Miami’s Cameron Wake was second in the AFC with 14 sacks last season, while new arrival Bush leads all NFL running backs with 294 receptions since 2006.

3. The Patriots swept the Dolphins in lopsided fashion last season, outscoring them 79-21.

TRENDS:

The Pats are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games as road favorites and 44-21-3 ATS in their last 68 road games.

The Dolphins are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games when getting points but 17-45-1 ATS in their last 63 home games.

The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams.

LINE MOVEMENT:

The spread opened in late June with the Patriots listed as 4-point road favorites. The number has been bet up to Pats -7. The total is staying put around 45.

PREDICTION: Patriots 27, Dolphins 20. New England brings its talents to South Beach and will get a tougher-than-expected matchup from a gritty Miami defense in stifling heat.

Raiders at Broncos: What Bettors Need to Know

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-3, 40)

THE STORY: Most of the offseason talk surrounding the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders centered on their respective quarterbacks. No surprise there, except in both cases the quarterbacks in question are not expected to be contributors this season.

Tim Tebow and Terrelle Pryor will be watching from the sideline when Denver opens the season by hosting Oakland in an AFC West matchup on Monday night. Of more consequence, each team will feature new head coaches (John Fox for the Broncos and Hue Jackson for the Raiders) amid renewed optimism that both can challenge for the division crown.

TV: ESPN, 10:15 p.m. ET.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (2010: 4-12, 4th, AFC West): Ex-Carolina Panthers coach Fox was brought in to help plug a sieve defense that allowed an NFL-high 471 points last season. Kyle Orton, the subject of major trade rumors in the offseason, returns as the starter after throwing for 3,653 yards and 20 TDs in 13 games last season. Although Brandon Lloyd led the league with 1,448 receiving yards, expect a more balanced offense with Willis McGahee joining former first-round draft pick Knowshon Moreno in the backfield. LB Von Miller was drafted No. 2 overall to bolster the defense, and the pass rush in particular.

ABOUT THE RAIDERS (2010: 8-8, 3rd AFC West): Oakland ended a string of seven straight seasons with double-digits losses, but it couldn’t save head coach Tom Cable’s job. The Raiders went 6-0 against the division, helped in large part by a breakout season from RB Darren McFadden, who finally lived up to his billing as a No. 4 overall pick and was second overall in the league with 128.0 yards from scrimmage per game. With a stable of speedy, young receivers, QB Jason Campbell (2,387 yards, 13 TDs) may be asked to do more in his second season with the Raiders.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Raiders annihilated the Broncos in two meetings last season, outscoring them 98-37. That included a 59-31 thrashing in which McFadden romped for four touchdowns.

2. Denver usually starts the season well, posting an AFC-best 32-18-1 mark in season openers, including winning 16 of the last 22. The Broncos also have won 11 consecutive home games on Kickoff Weekend.

3. In their glory days under owner Al Davis, the Raiders were known as the Kings of Monday Night. Not anymore. Oakland has lost 11 straight games in prime time since beating Denver in November 2008.

TRENDS:

The Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games against AFC West opponents but 1-5 ATS in their last six Week 1 games.

The Broncos are 11-25-2 ATS in their last 38 home games and 8-26-1 in their last 35 games as favorites.

The over is 5-1 in Denver’s last six home games.

LINE MOVEMENT:

This game opened as a pick ‘em at most sportsbooks back in early August but got bet up to Broncos -3. The game is still at Denver by a field goal but the juice is starting to climb (-125 on Sunday afternoon). We could see the line close with Oakland getting 3.5 points.

The total sits at 40.5 and has been around that numbers since oddsmakers first opened the over/under line.

PREDICTION: Broncos 20, Raiders 19. One of the league’s best home-field advantages comes into play as Fox wins his debut – narrowly – and Denver avenges a pair of humbling beatings by Oakland last season.

MNF Doubleheader
By Kevin Rogers

The Week 1 NFL card wraps up on Monday night with a doubleheader of division showdowns. The night concludes with the Broncos hosting the Raiders in a battle of AFC West foes as Denver begins the John Fox era. The first game of the double-dip features the biggest road favorite on the board with New England traveling to Miami.

Patriots (-7, 45½) at Dolphins

New England opens up its season in South Florida after the Patriots swept the Dolphins in 2010. The Pats have failed to win a playoff game since the 2007 AFC Championship after coming up short against the Jets in the divisional round of the playoffs last season. The Dolphins look for any sort of spark to begin the season following a pair of 7-9 campaigns the last two years, while the quarterback situation will be in question.

Miami acquired standout receiver Brandon Marshall in April 2010 to help out Chad Henne, but the Dolphins struggled at times to score touchdowns, while posting a dreadful 1-7 record at home. The Fins picked up Reggie Bush from the Saints after the lockout as their top option out of the backfield, trying to bolster the ground game following the struggles of Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams last season. Tony Sparano's club was an underdog just once at home last season as the Fins lost in a controversial finish to the Steelers, but cashed as three-point 'dogs in a 23-22 defeat.

The Patriots cruised the regular season with a 14-2 mark that included an eight-game winning streak to wrap up the regular season. The offense topped the 31-point mark in each of those victories following a 34-14 drubbing at Cleveland in Week 9. The interesting storyline with that Browns' debacle that ties into Monday night is offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who led Cleveland to over 400 yards in that upset, is now running the Dolphins' offense this season.

Bill Belichick's team cruised past Miami twice last season, including a 41-14 trouncing of the Fins at Sun Life Stadium on a Monday night in Week 4. The Patriots' offense wasn't spectacular, but the defense and special teams carried the load with three touchdowns, while setting up another score thanks to a blocked punt. New England closed as a one-point 'dog that night, while posting a 3-2 ATS mark as a road favorite last season.

The Dolphins have been an effective underdog in Sparano's tenure by compiling a 19-11 ATS ledger when receiving points, even though the record sits at 4-6 ATS as a home 'dog since 2008. These two teams have split the last 10 meetings in South Florida, while the Patriots have won at Sun Life Stadium in consecutive years only once in this span (2007-08).

Raiders at Broncos (-3, 40)

The week wraps up in Denver with the Broncos seeking revenge for a pair of losses to the rival Raiders last season. Denver opened up as a one-point favorite when Week 1 lines were released months ago, but the decision to retain Kyle Orton as the starting quarterback drove this line up to -3, quieting the Tim Tebow rumors. Oakland is always under the microscope, but the Raiders swept through the AFC West last season with a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS mark.

The Silver and Black dominated the Broncos twice in 2010, including a 59-14 beatdown at Invesco Field as seven-point underdogs. That game was never in doubt as the Raiders scored three touchdowns in the first seven minutes, while building a 38-0 lead in the second quarter. Oakland took care of business at the Black Hole in December with a 39-23 triumph as 9½-point favorites in Tebow's first start under center for the Broncos. The Raiders' defense limited Denver to three field goals in the final three quarters, while rushing for 264 yards on the beat-up Broncos' defense.

Orton put up solid passing numbers last season, but that didn't translate into many victories with Denver compiling a 3-10 SU and 4-9 ATS record in his 13 starts. The defense will receive a boost this season with DE Elvis Dumervil returning from a pectoral injury suffered in 2010, as the former Louisville standout led the league in sacks in 2009 with 17.

The Raiders are a coin-flip proposition the last two seasons on the highway with an 8-8 ATS mark, but Oakland has lost eight straight games in Week 1 with only two covers in this stretch. The Broncos are opening their season at home for the first time since 2004, when Denver picked up a 34-24 victory over Kansas City in a Sunday night thriller.

Patriots And Dolphins Start Monday Night Football Slate
By: Michael Robinson

The New England Patriots have made some bold moves to their roster as they begin a ‘Super Bowl or bust’ campaign at the Miami Dolphins on Monday Night Football.

The Don Best odds screen has New England a 6½-7 point road favorite with a total of 45½-points. ESPN will have the first half of its doubleheader at 7:00 p.m. (ET) from Sun Life Stadium, followed by the AFC West battle of Oakland at Denver.

New England went 14-2 straight up in the regular season last year, but it was considered a disappointment after a 28-21 home loss to the Jets as 9 ½-point home favorites in the divisional round of last year's playoffs.

The Patriots also lost to Baltimore (33-14) at home in their opening playoff game the year before.

Coach Bill Belichick decided to make a change on defense, switching mostly from a base 3-4 to a 4-3, although he still won’t admit it to the media. Veterans Albert Haynesworth Shaun Ellis and Andre Carter should join the starting front-four in addition to holdover Vince Wilfork.

That defensive line should hold up against the run and generate more pass rush, so the team isn’t last in the league again in third-down defense. One caveat is there could be an adjustment period with so many new players, plus the linebackers adjusting to new responsibilities. Ellis and Haynesworth have also been limited this preseason due to injuries.

Offensively, New England didn’t feel it had to do much after scoring 32.4 PPG last year, tops in the league. Chad Ochocinco was brought it to be an outside threat, but he’s struggling big time to learn the offense. Opposing defenses could take a page from the Jets playbook and load up defenders in the middle of the field, forcing Tom Brady to throw outside.

The offensive line usually does a great job protecting Brady, but was manhandled in the playoffs and also versus Detroit this preseason. Tackle Sebastian Vollmer (back) is listed as doubtful, which means rookie Nate Solder would have to start. Guard Dan Connolly (foot) is also questionable, which could mean a start for newly signed veteran Brian Waters.

Brady is just 4-5 SU and ATS in his nine lifetime starts in Miami. New England did win 41-14 as 1-point underdogs last year, getting three TDs from the special teams and defense. Miami won most recently in 2009, 22-21 as 4½-point home ‘dogs.

New England is 6-1 SU and ATS in its last seven road games. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in those games, scoring 33.1 PPG.

Miami coach Tony Sparano is back after a disappointing 7-9 SU and 8-8 ATS season, including losing the final three games (SU and ATS). Owner Stephen Ross flirted with the likes Jim Harbaugh, but Sparano got the nod almost by default.

Quarterback Chad Henne seemed to be another certain goner, at least as a starter. Denver’s Kyle Orton was very close to being acquired, but it fell through. The Michigan product Henne has looked better in the preseason, but his weapons are mediocre at best and a lot falls on his shoulders after a 15 touchdown, 19 interception season.

The running back situation has changed dramatically with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams both gone. Reggie Bush was acquired from New Orleans, but he’s not an every-down back. That job supposed to go to rookie Daniel Thomas, but he’s had problems adjusting and is questionable with a hamstring injury.

The defense is an underrated group that finished sixth in the NFL last year in total yards (309.3 YPG) and tied for 13th in points (20.8 PPG). It has a great pass rusher in Cameron Wake (14 sacks last year) and the self-proclaimed top cornerback tandem in the league in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith.

Miami’s injury report is sparse besides Thomas, with offensive tackle Jake Long (knee) listed as probable.

Weather should be in the 80s at kickoff, with some humidity. Those warm conditions favor the Dolphins, although they’re just 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS in their last seven September home games.

Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders Renew Rivalry
By: Dave Consolazio

The second game of the Monday Night Football doubleheader comes from the Mile High City where the Denver Broncos host the hated division rival Oakland Raiders.

Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15 p.m. (ET) and will be televised nationally on ESPN. Denver has held steady as a 3-point favorite since early in the week on the Don Best odds screen.

Though the two rivals have been evenly matched at 5-5 straight up over their last 10 meetings, recent results have favored the Raiders. Oakland has won each of the last three meetings between the teams, both straight up and against the spread. In their two meetings last season, Oakland outscored Denver by a combined 98-37.

Oakland was 6-0 SU and ATS against AFC West opponents in 2010, but struggled at 2-8 outside of the division to finish the season 8-8. The Raiders return most of the players from last year’s team, but lost two very important players in cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha and tight end Zach Miller.

The loss of Asomugha, one of the best cornerbacks in the game, will undoubtedly hurt Oakland’s pass defense; but an improved front seven may help lessen the blow. Miller’s contribution in the passing game will also be missed, and while Kevin Boss was signed as a replacement, he is out for this game with an MCL injury.

Oakland’s offense will once again be led by talented running backs Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. The Raiders gashed through Denver’s defense last season with 592 rushing yards and eight rushing touchdowns over the two wins.

Denver will look to exploit the weaknesses in Oakland’s secondary with veteran quarterback Kyle Orton under center. Many believed that Tim Tebow would have the chance to run the offense in 2011, but Orton won the job after a far more polished performance in preseason camp.

Denver finished 4-12 a year ago due in large part to their porous defense. The Broncos used the second overall draft pick in the 2011 NFL Draft on linebacker Von Miller, and hope that he can help them turn the defense around, especially against the run.

The Broncos are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home openers, but just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games against the Raiders. Denver has lost three straight against Oakland at home, and is 0-5 ATS over the last five home games against the Raiders dating back to 2006.

The total for Monday night’s game is set at 40½. Considering the question marks on both defenses, and the fact that six of the last eight meetings have gone above the mark, the ‘over’ may be a popular play in this one.

A few clouds are expected, but there's no chance of rain in Denver on Monday when the temperature should be around 70 at kickoff. The Broncos will stay home for a Week 2 contest against the Bengals while the Raiders remain on the highway with a game in Buffalo.