ATLANTA (9 - 5) at NEW ORLEANS (11 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in dome games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in games played on turf this season.
ATLANTA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-45 ATS (-29.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-27 ATS (-18.7 Units) in home games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
New Orleans is 5-19-1 ATS in its last 25 games when playing at home against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing at home against Atlanta
ATLANTA at NEW ORLEANS
ATLANTA: 14-5 ATS at New Orleans
NEW ORLEANS: 9-0 Under off BB road wins
NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Week 16 Betting Notes
By Colin Kelly
Covers.com
Atlanta at New Orleans (-6.5)
Why Falcons cover: They’ve got more to play for than Saints, who have already clinched a playoff spot. An upset win would secure a postseason berth for Atlanta. The Falcons are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 in December. The trends in this NFC South rivalry point to Falcons: Atlanta 11-5 ATS in the last 16 vs. New Orleans, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five, and the underdog has cashed five in a row.
Why Saints cover: They are the hottest team going right now, winning and covering six in a row and seven of their last eight, with five double-digit victories and a win and cover on road against Atlanta in overtime. Sean Payton’s troops have covered their last six at home and are on a 5-0 ATS run as favorites.
Total (53): The over is 6-2 in the Saints’ last eight on Mondays. However, despite two of league’s best offenses (Saints 32.6 ppg, Falcons 24.4 ppg), several under trends are in play. The Falcons are on under runs of 8-2 overall and 5-0 vs. winning teams. The Saints sport under streaks of 13-3 inside NFC South and 5-1 vs. winning teams.
NFL Week 16
Falcons (9-5) @ Saints (11-3) - New Orleans (even) won 26-23 at Atlanta in OT six weeks ago, when Falcons went for it on 4th-and-1 on own 29 in OT but failed, after rallying from 10 down in last 5:00 to tie game- it was fifth win in last six series meetings for NO. Atlanta won here 27-24 in OT LY, snapping 6-game skid in Superdome, with losses by 3-13-20-6-4-8 points (they beat Saints in Alamodome in ’05, after Hurricane Katrina). Falcons are 2-2 as underdog this year; this is first time they’re getting points since Week 7 win at Detroit. Teams that beat Saints this year scored 42-26-31 points. WhoDats won and covered their last six games- they’re 6-0 as home favorite this year, winning at home by 17-7-55-11-25-14 points (average score, 40-18). Eight of last ten Atlanta games stayed under total.
MNF - Falcons at Saints
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Christmas weekend in the NFL concludes in the Big Easy, where it will be anything but for the Falcons as they look to knock off the Saints. Atlanta goes for its 10th win of the season, while New Orleans attempts to take a step closer towards a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs.
The Saints (11-3) are riding a six-game winning streak, as Sean Payton's club dominated the Vikings, 42-20 as seven-point favorites. Drew Brees put together a nearly flawless effort by tossing five touchdowns and throwing for 412 yards, including two scores to Lance Moore. New Orleans is helping out backers as well with six consecutive covers, while bouncing back from a humiliating 31-21 defeat as 13½-point favorites at St. Louis in Week 8.
The Falcons (9-5) have an opportunity to clinch a playoff berth with a win in one of their final two games, as Atlanta's safety net comes next week at home against stumbling Tampa Bay. Mike Smith's squad routed the Jaguars last Thursday at the Georgia Dome, 41-14 as 13½-point favorites for their fourth victory in five games. The Falcons jumped out to a 41-0 lead thanks to three touchdown passes from Matt Ryan, while the Atlanta defense held Jacksonville to 207 yards of total offense.
The last time these two rivals hooked up at the Georgia Dome in Week 10, the Saints held off a late Falcons' rally for a 26-23 overtime triumph. Both Brees and Ryan each threw for over 320 yards and two touchdowns, while a failed fourth-and-one in Atlanta territory doomed the Falcons in overtime. The game fell short of the 49 ½ closing total, as the Saints cashed outright as one-point road underdogs. This was the fourth consecutive game in the series decided by three points, while the away team is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in this stretch.
New Orleans and Green Bay are the only undefeated teams at home this season at 6-0, but the Saints are the lone club to cover every single home contest. The last time the Saints played at the Superdome, New Orleans took care of Detroit, 31-17 in Week 13 as nine-point 'chalk.' New Orleans owns a 6-1 ATS record as a touchdown favorite or more this season, while scoring at least 27 points in each of its six home contests.
The Falcons are just 4-3 SU and 3-4 ATS on the highway this season, as Atlanta's best road victory came at Detroit in Week 7 as 4½-point 'dogs, 23-16. Playing inside the division on the road has been profitable for Atlanta since the end of 2009, posting a 5-1 SU/ATS record. One of those wins came at the Superdome last September in overtime, a see-saw battle in which the Falcons prevailed with a 27-24 victory as three-point underdogs.
From a totals perspective, the Falcons were in the midst of an eight-game 'under' streak at one point, but Atlanta has turned in 'overs' in each of the last two weeks. On the flip side, for as high-scoring as the Saints' offense is, that is no guarantee of cashing an 'over' ticket. New Orleans is 7-7 to the 'over' this season, including a 3-3 mark at the Superdome. However, the Saints are 4-2 to the 'over' in games with the total listed at 50 or above.
New Orleans opened up as a 7½-point favorite, as that number has stayed pretty steady most of the week the Saints laying a touchdown at most sportsbooks. The total is set at 52½, while several books have the number as low as 52 and as high as 53. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EST from the Mercedes-Benz Superdome and will be televised nationally on ESPN.
Falcons at Saints: What Bettors Need to Know
By Covers.com
ATLANTA FALCONS at NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (-6.5, 52)
THE STORY: With Dan Marino's NFL single-season passing record squarely in his sights, Drew Brees will lead the New Orleans Saints into a critical divisional matchup with the visiting Atlanta Falcons on Monday night. Brees needs 305 yards to surpass the mark of 5,084 set by Marino in 1984, a fairly decent proposition given the fact he has thrown for a league-record 11 300-yard games this season. Of more importance to both teams is how the game will impact both their postseason fates. Winners of six straight, New Orleans can wrap up the NFC South title with a victory and remains in contention for the No. 2 seed in the conference. Atlanta still has an outside shot at winning the division and holds a tiebreaker edge over Detroit for the No. 5 seed. The Falcons would clinch a playoff berth with a win Monday.
LINE: The Saints opened as 6.5-point favorites and were bet up to the key number of 7 before falling back to 6.5 at most books. If you shop hard, you can find 6 or 7 (even). The total opened at 53.5 and has fallen to 52.5 or 52.
ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-5): Atlanta has won four of five since an overtime home loss to the Saints on Nov. 13. The Falcons have had ample time to prepare since thumping Jacksonville 41-14 on Dec. 15. QB Matt Ryan threw for a modest 224 yards and three TDs, including a pair to Roddy White, who had 10 receptions for 135 yards. It was the second 10-catch performance in four games for White, who has five TDs in that stretch. In an attempt to keep Brees off the field, Atlanta could feature a heavy dose of Michael Turner, who has rushed for 265 yards and two TDs in the last two visits to New Orleans.
ABOUT THE SAINTS (11-3): How good has Brees been? In his last five games, he has thrown for 1,776 yards with 16 touchdowns and zero interceptions. He threw five TD passes in last week’s 42-20 rout at Minnesota and has completed 20-plus passes in a league-record 34 straight games. Top pick Mark Ingram (toe) sat out the last two games, but it hasn’t slowed New Orleans, which got 151 rushing yards from RBs Christopher Ivory, Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles last week. Sproles has been a major weapon out of the backfield with 79 receptions, including at least five in 12 games. Jimmy Graham leads NFL tight ends in receptions (87) and yards (1,171).
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Although the Saints have won nine of past 11 meetings overall, each of the last four with Atlanta have been decided by three points.
2. Brees has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 41 consecutive games, the second-longest streak in NFL history behind Johnny Unitas' 47.
3. “I hope he's at his highest level because if he plays any better I don't know if there's any way to stop him.” – Falcons coach Mike Smith on Brees’ recent play.
TRENDS:
- Falcons are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 visits to New Orleans.
- Saints are 6-0 ATS in their last six games.
- Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
- Under is 13-3 in Saints' last 16 vs. NFC South.
PREDICTION: Saints 34, Falcons 31 -- Atlanta keeps it close as usual, but Brees and the Saints’ high-powered offense extend their win streak to seven.