NY JETS (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 3) - 10/7/2013, 8:40 PM
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Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NY JETS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Jets last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home
NY Jets at Atlanta
NY Jets: 0-8 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Atlanta: 17-5 UNDER after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
MNF Week 5
Jets (2-2) @ Falcons (1-3) — Jets are making way too many mistakes to win, and its not all the rookie QB; they’ve turned ball over 12 times (-10) and in last three games, they committed 38 penalties for 300 yards, which helped create field position deficits of 16-9-18 yards. Two takeaways in four games ( none in last three games) isn’t good. Atlanta failed in last-minute red zone drives on offense in Weeks 1,4, on defense in Week 3, or else they could just as easily be 4-0; Smith is 19-5 vs spread coming off loss, but something is missing with Atlanta, which is 22-12-1 as home favorite under Smith. Would expect Atlanta to try and run ball more; they’ve run ball more than 16 times in only one of four games with Jackson out of lineup. Jets are 7-12 as road underdogs under Rex Ryan, 1-7 in last eight as a non-divisional road dog. Atlanta was torched (9.2/10.2 yards/attempt) by two quality QBs they faced (Brees/Brady) but Smith isn’t in that category—Falcons held Bradford/Tannehill to 6.4/4.9.
Armadillosports.com
MNF - Jets at Falcons
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com
The Falcons have been a tough team to figure out through four games, as the defending NFC South champions need a win on Monday night to get on the playoff track. The Jets play their second straight road contest after getting blown out at Tennessee last week, but New York owns the better record heading into this matchup at the Georgia Dome.
Following New Orleans' victory at Chicago on Sunday, the Falcons are in danger of falling four games behind the Saints in the NFC South with a loss on Monday. Atlanta is listed as a double-digit favorite after getting tripped up by New England last Sunday night, 30-23. After a field goal to take a 3-0 advantage, the Falcons never led again, while falling behind by as many as 14 points as Mike Smith's team failed to cash as three-point favorites. Matt Ryan threw for 421 yards, but the Atlanta running game did very little by accumulating 58 yards.
The Jets have turned into a surprise for bettors by covering three of four games so far, while splitting their first four contests straight-up. New York can pull into second-place tie in the AFC East with Miami if the Jets can grab a road win tonight, but Rex Ryan's club has lost each of their first two away contests. The Jets cashed as 11-point underdogs at New England in Week 2, but New York was rolled at Tennessee last Sunday, 38-13 as 4 ½-point underdogs. New York fell behind, 24-6 at halftime, while turning the ball over four times.
Under Smith, the Falcons own a solid 6-1 SU/ATS record off a home loss dating back to 2008, as Atlanta fell into this situation just once last season. The Falcons dropped the regular season finale to Tampa Bay, then held off Seattle in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, 30-28, but failed to cash as 2 ½-point favorites. In the last five seasons, the Falcons have suffered through just one three-game ATS skid (in 2011), while posting a 4-1-1 ATS mark off consecutive ATS losses in this stretch.
The last time these teams hooked up was a real barnburner at Met Life Stadium, as Atlanta held off New York, 10-7 to cash outright as six-point road underdogs in 2009. The Falcons won that contest in December in spite of being out of the playoff race, but that victory spurred a three-game winning streak to end that campaign at 9-7. The loss didn't affect the Jets, who eventually fell to the Colts in the AFC Championship.
The Jets have never won at Georgia Dome in three visits since 1992, which includes a 27-14 defeat to the Falcons in 2005. That game took place on a Monday night coincidentally, as Atlanta cruised to victory as eight-point favorites, while the game barely cashed the 'over' of 40.
The Falcons started the 2012 season by hitting the 'under' in seven of eight home games. However, Atlanta sailed 'over' the total in its two home playoff contests against Seattle and San Francisco, while drilling the 'over' in the first two games at the Georgia Dome this season against St. Louis and New England. The loss to the Patriots last week snapped an eight-game home winning streak against AFC foes since 2009.
In Ryan's tenure, the Jets are just 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS in Monday night action, including losses last season to the Texans and Titans. However, New York has been profitable as an underdog of at least nine points by putting up an 8-2 ATS record since 2007.
Atlanta is a losing proposition when laying at least nine points under Smith by posting a 4-5 ATS record. The Falcons failed to cover as heavy favorites in home wins last season against the Raiders and Cardinals, but won each of these games straight-up. Surprisingly, this is only the third Monday night game at the Georgia Dome since 2008, as the Falcons lost to the Saints in 2010, while holding off the Broncos last season in Week 2.
Monday Night Football Betting: Jets at Falcons
By Covers.com
New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-10, 44)
The Atlanta Falcons have made three straight postseason appearances and won a pair of division titles in that span, but they are venturing into must-win territory entering Monday night's home matchup with the New York Jets. The Falcons already trail NFC South front-runner New Orleans by three games and will be out to avoid a third straight defeat for the first time since 2007. The Jets will look to bounce back from a turnover-riddled loss at Tennessee last week.
New York, and rookie quarterback Geno Smith in particular, hardly looked ready for prime time against the Titans and managed only a single touchdown for the third time in four games. Smith, who won the quarterback job when incumbent Mark Sanchez suffered a serious shoulder injury in the preseason, committed four turnovers that Tennessee turned into 28 points. It's something that has to stop now in order for us to progress and to get better as an offense and as a team," Smith conceded.
ABOUT THE JETS (2-2): Smith needs to curb his string of mistakes after throwing eight interceptions and turning over the ball 11 times through four games, tying for the league lead. That task could be arduous if Smith is without starting wide receivers Santonio Holmes (hamstring) and Stephen Hill (concussion), who had each gone over 100 yards in a Week 3 victory over the Buffalo Bills. Holmes had only one reception last week before he was injured and voiced his displeasure about it this week, saying, "I can’t throw it to myself and catch it. Otherwise I would."
ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-3): Atlanta continues to lament its inability to convert in the red zone, but a bigger issue has been a defense that has yet to hold an opponent under 23 points, has produced only seven sacks and is allowing 26 points and a robust 393.3 yards per game. Matt Ryan threw for a career-high 421 yards in last week's 30-23 loss to New England but the offense has been inconsistent without a healthy Roddy White (10 catches) and running back Steven Jackson, who will miss his third straight game with a hamstring injury. Wideout Julio Jones leads the league with 481 receiving yards.
TRENDS:
* Over is 4-0 in the Falcons last four home games.
* Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in October.
* Under is 4-1 in Jets last five road games.
EXTRA POINTS:
1. Ryan is 34-6 at home, including wins in 12 of his last 14 games.
2. RB Mike Goodson is expected to make his debut with the Jets after serving a four-game suspension for violating the league's drug policy.
3. Jones is aiming for his fourth consecutive 100-yard game.
Monday Night Football Handicapping NY Jets at Atlanta
Vegassportszone.com
Monday Night Football week 5 features a big home favorite as the Atlanta Falcons ( 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS ) host the NY Jets ( 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS). The Falcons are a 10-point choice with the total set at 44. The Jets have scored just 68 points but have managed to cover the point spread in three of their opening four games. That’s due to a dominating defense allowing 283 ypg to rank #2 in the NFL along with a league-best 4.3 yards per play. A win over the Falcons would move the Jets within one game of AFC East division-leading New England. All three AFC East teams lost Sunday, so the Jets have a chance to makeup ground on all division opponents.
Monday Night Football Handicapping
The Falcons are near must-win early in the season as Atlanta is falling quickly out of the NFL South division race with the Saints now 5-0. Part of the problems for the Falcon’s is their lack of balance on offense, as offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter has dialed up plenty of passes for QB Matt Ryan and his talented receiving core. The Falcons run the ball an average of just 18 times per game through four contest; only the Giants and Steelers run the ball less. Perhaps missing RB Steven Jackson since he left the game with injury in week 2 has impacted the Falcon’s commitment to run the ball. The Falcons average 82 rushing ypg, and 4.4 yards per rush is above league average but there has been little commitment to the running game.
Meanwhile, the Jets are averaging 123 rushing ypg and 31 carries per game. With the Jets defense allowing just 79 rushing ypg and 3.0 ypg, it appears the Falcons could be grounded again Monday night. So can the Jets’ pass defense slow the air assault by the Falcon’s? New York has not forced a turnover their pas three games, New York is allowing 203 passing ypg, but their 51% completion against is league-best and 6.2 yards per pass play is among the league leaders on defense. The Jets also have 14 sacks. Must note that the Jets opponents all rank in the bottom half of league offensive yards per game, and that includes the Patriots. The Falcons enter #5 in the NFL averaging 398 ypg and among the league-leaders at 6.2 yards per play.
The fundamental stat profiles still point to the underdog, as the Falcon’s are also being priced like last year’s #1 NFC seed. Atlanta was in a solid spot last week but still lost at home to the Patriots 30-23. The Falcons have allowed at least 23 points in every game and have faced three below average offenses. But situations and systems support Atlanta, as the Falcons are 16-1 SU & 12-5 ATS off a loss at home with QB Matt Ryan in charge. Add in coach Mike Smith’s 16-0 ATS mark in games off a loss of 6 or more points, and you’re betting on the birds to bring their best in this situation and game.
The problem in support of the Jets is rookie QB Geno Smith has not shown enough promise or poise to feel confident, as his mistakes and decision-making can be costly. They did last week when Smith had two INT’s and two fumbles that led to 28 points for Tennessee in a 38-13 lopsided loss to the Titans. The Jets slightly out-gained and out-rushed the Titans, but turnovers once again proved very costly to a team and the Jets are 0-2 SU on the road. Still, Smith has a strong-arm and his yards- per-pass is solid with the Jets averaging 7.1 yppa to the Falcons 7.3 yppa. However, he’ll be without his top-2 receivers for this game as Santonio Holmes and Stephen Hill are out with injuries. Smith has tossed 8 INT’s to just 4 TD’s; representative of his lack of awareness and suspect decision-making. The situation with the WR’s along with the Jets preferred mode of travel on the ground makes this a ball-control game plan for New York. Especially after watching film of the Patriots running the ball 31 times for 132 yards in a victory over the Falcons last week.
The Jets appear to have some value on their side as a defensive ‘Dog, and some situational systems also support New York. But I’m not betting on the Jets. An opinion only on the total going ‘under’ 44 is the preferred play.