This Monday Night showdown features a pair of AFC North rivals jockeying for playoff positioning. The Ravens (7-5 SU, 6-5-1 ATS) snapped a three-game losing skid last week with a 34-17 win over the Cowboys, covering as 8.5-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Browns (9-3 SU, 5-7 ATS) are rolling and have won four straight, including a 41-35 win over the Titans last week, winning outright as 4-point road dogs. The Ravens are + 85 in point differential while the Browns are -15.
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 1-point road favorite. The public is relatively split and doesn't know who to take. However, we've seen this line swell from Ravens -1 to -3. This signals some respected money backing the Ravens before they got to the key number of 3 (last sharp move Baltimore -2.5). The Browns have value as a dog with an inflated line in a primetime game. Divisional dogs are 38-30 ATS (56%) this season. Home divisional dogs are 15-10 ATS (60%). Primetime dogs are 25-15 ATS (63%). The Browns also have an edge as they are on regular rest while the Ravens are on a short week (played last Tuesday). This is also a revenge game for Cleveland, who fell to Baltimore 38-6 on Opening Day.
Also keep an eye on this total. It opened at 45.5, got bet up to 47 and is now back down to 45.5. The under matches several profitable systems. Late season division unders have been a smart bet historically. Since Week 11 divisional unders are 9-6 (60%) this season. Primetime unders are 25-15 (63%). The weather also benefits the under. The forecast calls for low 30s and 15-20 MPH winds at the Dawg Pound. Bill Vinovich, the leaf ref, has historically favored unders (59%). Cleveland is 7-5 to the under. Baltimore is 7-5 to the over.
Weather could also been an issue as the forecast predicts low 30s with 10-15 MPH winds. Referee Bill Vinovich has historically favored unders (59%). Primetime unders are 23-15 (61%) on the season.
Lean Cleveland