Monday Night Football Week 12

NFL Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA...49ers have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series, including last four trips to desert. Cards 1-3 vs. line at home TY, and Whisenhunt "over" 10-2 last 12 since late 2009. Tech edge-49ers and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
By Vince Akins

49ers at Cardinals - The 49ers are 11-0-1 ATS (6.8 ppg) since November 10, 2008 when they allowed 21+ points last game on a Sunday. The 49ers are 8-0-1 ATS (13.7 ppg) since December 17, 1990 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent on Monday Night Football. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS (-16.6 ppg) since November 14, 1999 within 3 of pick after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Cardinals are 14-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since October 14, 1990 within 3 of pick at home when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. The Cardinals are 8-0-1 ATS (9.8 ppg) since October 02, 2005 within 3 of pick vs a divisional opponent. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since October 08, 2006 as a home dog after a straight up loss. The 49ers are 0-11 OU (-9.6 ppg) since December 04, 2005 within 3 of pick vs a divisional opponent. The 49ers are 8-0-1 OU (14.7 ppg) since October 27, 2002 as a favorite when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Cardinals are 12-0-1 OU (9.0 ppg) since November 06, 2005 as a dog when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The Cardinals are 0-9-1 OU (-7.6 ppg) since November 05, 2000 as a home dog the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent.

What Bettors Need to Know: 49ers at Cardinals
By Steve Merril

Current Odds

There has been very little movement on this line. The 49ers opened as 1-point road favorites in most locations, while a few sportsbooks have raised the line to -1.5. The public is leaning slightly towards the road team with 54 percent of the Covers.com consensus favoring San Francisco.

The over/under line opened at 39 total points and has gone up to 40 and 40.5 in most locations. This isn’t a surprise as 60 percent of the public is favoring the over according to the Covers.com consensus.

The weather will be clear but the temperatures will be a bit colder than expected for Arizona with a low of 36 degrees in the forecast on Monday night.

Injury Report

San Francisco’s star tight end Vernon Davis left the game last week versus Tampa Bay with an injured ankle, but he is expected to play this week. Davis leads the team with 516 receiving yards this season and is averaging 13.6 yards per catch. Wide receiver Josh Morgan is also probable to play, despite battling a shoulder injury. Morgan is fourth on the team with 384 receiving yards this season and leads the team with 14.8 yards per catch.

The 49ers will likely be without kicker Joe Nedney who missed last week’s game due to a knee injury and is doubtful this week. Offensive tackle Adam Snyder remains questionable with a shoulder injury, while defensive back William James is doubtful due to a concussion.

Arizona has some injury concerns on defense as linebacker Clark Haggans, defensive end Calais Campbell, and cornerback Gregory Toler are all listed as questionable, while defensive back Michael Adams is probable and is expected to play.

Non-Offensive Touchdowns

Arizona’s offense has been terrible this season. The Cardinals are averaging only 19 points per game on 275 yards of total offense per game. But they have scored 24 points or more in four of their 10 games because they are scoring a bunch of non-offensive touchdowns.

The Cardinals have eight return touchdowns this season thanks in large part to LaRod Stephens-Howling, who’s taken two kickoffs back to the house. Arizona’s defense has six of those touchdowns, including two interception returns from safety Kerry Rhodes.

While their defense is scoring points, the Cards are also allowing the most points per game in the NFL. Arizona comes into this game allowing 29 points per game on 398 yards of total offense.

Five of its 10 opponents have scored 31 points or more, including two teams (Falcons and Chargers) scoring 41 points apiece.

The Cards have allowed 19 pass plays of at least 30 yards or more which ties them for the most in the league. They’ve also allowed 12 rushing plays of at least 20 yards or more which ties them for the second-highest total in the league.

”It’s mental mistakes as much as anything,” head coach Ken Whisenhunt said. “We’re having our issues with missed tackles, but when you line up wrong or play the defense wrong, when you drop coverage on a guy you're suppose to have, those are all culprits for our defense’s problems right now.”

Don’t Blame Me

The 49ers were shutout at home last week by Tampa Bay. It was San Francisco’s first offensive shutout in 33 years (1977) and nobody seems to want to take the blame.

Offensive coordinator Mike Johnson says it wasn’t his fault: “I’ll sit here and say I thought the game plan was good,” he said. “But we didn’t execute it well.”

Head coach Mike Singletary wasn’t running from the blame though.

“Just understand, in terms of whose fault was it for this, whose fault it was for that, it is all on me,” Singletary said. “If you have any questions about that, just before you even ask the question, just put ‘the head coach’ and that will be acceptable.”

If San Francisco doesn’t score points on the pathetic Arizona defense, then it’ll need to make some major changes. Arizona hasn’t been able to stop any offense this year, so the 49ers should come out and be aggressive in this game from the opening kickoff.

Tale of the tape: 49ers at Cardinals

A pair of 3-7 teams go head-to-head Monday night as the Arizona Cardinals host the San Francisco 49ers. Arizona is set as a 1-point underdog with the total at 40 points.

Offense:

San Francisco’s offense ranks 25th producing just under 314 yards per game while scoring 16 points an outing. The 49ers have cracked the 20-point plateau only twice over their last six games, but quarterback Troy Smith is completing almost 58 percent of his passes while averaging nine yards per attempt.

Arizona’s total offense checks in at 31st in the league, averaging about 275 yards per contest. Veteran running back Tim Hightower leads the team with only 438 rushing yards as the club manages 84 yards on the ground per game. The passing offense isn’t much better producing 191 yards per outing.

Edge: 49ers

Defense:

Arizona gives up a league-high 29.2 points per game with a rushing defense that ranks 28th in the league and a passing defense that sits 27th. The Cardinals have 20 sacks and 10 interceptions this season. Last week the Kansas City Chiefs ran for 159 yards and two touchdowns in downing Arizona 31-13.

San Francisco sits 13th in total defense giving up 328 yards per game while allowing almost 22 points an outing. However only one team has scored 30 points against the 49ers this season – Kansas City dropped them 31-10 in Week 3.

Edge: 49ers

Special teams:

San Francisco kicker Joe Nedney is expected to miss the game with a knee injury so Shane Andrus should handle the kicks. Nedney had hit 11 of his 13 attempts this season while Andrus has yet to attempt a kick. The 49ers average 21.4 yards on kickoff returns and 7.9 yards on punts. San Francisco’s punting ranks seventh in the league.

Backed by Jay Feely’s leg, the Cardinals sit second in the league converting almost 92 percent of their field goal attempts with just one miss on the season. Arizona averages 25.9 yards per kickoff return, but only 6.4 yards on punt returns.

Edge: Cardinals

Word on the street:

"Troy was coming off two wins, and you want to ride that. This is the game where we have to take a step back and look at how he responds during this game and how he does. We'll see how it goes. But I have to make sure that if we have Troy – and he's done some good things – and make sure that I fully exhaust that." – 49ers coach Mike Singletary on QB Troy Smith.

"When you're looking at the Cardinals, and the way they've been built, the one thing you want is a guy who can make the throws downfield, who can accurately put the ball in that 15- to 30-yard range. The best players in this league at that position - Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers - those guys are making chunk plays consistently. And in this day and age in the NFL, especially with the playmakers the Cardinals have, is something they have to find." – Former Cardinals quarterback and NFL analyst Kurt Warner on Arizona’s QB situation.

Final score prediction:

San Francisco 17, Arizona 10

MNF - Niners at Cardinals
By Kevin Rogers

The Thanksgiving weekend concludes in the desert on Monday night as the two-time defending NFC West champion Cardinals try to place another nail in San Francisco's tumultuous season. Both teams come in at 3-7, but each club is still mathematically alive inside the incredibly mediocre NFC West behind division leader Seattle at 5-5.

The Niners continue to be one of the league's disappointments after preseason aspirations of winning their division. San Francisco made a change at quarterback when the team headed to London to battle Denver with former Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith taking over for the injured Alex Smith. The ex-Ohio State star managed wins over the Broncos and Rams, but the offense stalled last week in a 21-0 shutout at the hands of the surprising Buccaneers as three-point home favorites.

The road hasn't been kind to Mike Singletary's squad this season, as the Niners are 0-4 away from Candlestick Park. What has made this record even worse than the standard numbers is the amount of times San Francisco has been listed as a favorite on the highway. The Niners have lost at Seattle, Kansas City, and Carolina when laying points, while covering as seven-point underdogs at Atlanta in a 16-14 defeat.

Arizona realized how tough life would be without future Hall of Fame quarterback Kurt Warner following his retirement in the offseason. The Cardinals' offense has stalled under Derek Anderson and Max Hall since the release of former first-round pick Matt Leinart after the preseason. Arizona has shown some signs of life this season, including a 30-22 upset over New Orleans as 6 ½-point home underdogs. However, the defense provided two scores, while offensive lineman Levi Brown recovered a Hall fumble in the end zone for the third touchdown against the Saints.

The Cardinals have dropped five straight games, including last week's 31-13 thumping at Kansas City as nine-point underdogs. It was a tough spot for Ken Whisenhunt's group, facing an upset Chiefs team that was pounded at Denver the prior week. Anderson had a strong game through the air with 295 yards passing, but the Chiefs picked up 159 yards on the ground and two touchdowns from Thomas Jones.

The 'over' has turned into a terrific play for the Cardinals in 2010, hitting in seven of 10 games. Unfortunately, the 'over' came up just short at Kansas City as a late Anderson touchdown pass to Larry Fitzgerald made the final fall on 44, one point shy of the closing number of 45. All four games played at University of Phoenix Stadium have cashed the 'over,' while the Cards gave up an average of 37.5 ppg in losses to the Seahawks and Bucs.

This series has actually been featured in primetime in four of the past five seasons, including San Francisco's 24-9 trouncing of Arizona last December at Candlestick Park. The Niners swept the season series in 2009, as San Francisco knocked off the then-defending NFC Champs, 20-16 as 5 ½-point underdogs in the season opener. The most memorable game under the lights in this series of note was the 29-24 win by Arizona in November 2008 on a Monday night in Glendale. The Niners were stopped on the goal line as time expired, but managed a cover as 9 ½-point 'dogs in Singletary's second game as head coach.

Favorites have dominated Monday night games of late with San Diego (Week 11), Philadelphia (Week 10), Pittsburgh (Week 9), and Indianapolis (Week 8) all covering when laying points. The only team that didn't win by double-digits was the Steelers, as the Bengals rallied late to make it interesting in a 27-21 loss. Unfortunately, the totals haven't been as easy to handicap in this stretch with a 2-2 split in that department.

The Niners have covered each of their last three appearances on Monday night, including a 25-22 setback to the Saints as 6 ½-point home underdogs in Week 2. Arizona has not been a Monday night darling with just four showings since 2002, while playing twice in Glendale. Of course the most famous (or infamous) game played by the Cards at home in primetime was the 24-23 meltdown to the Bears in 2006 after blowing a 20-3 lead.

San Francisco is listed as a one-point favorite in most spots, while several books have the game listed as a pick-em. The total is set at 40, which is the third-lowest total on a Monday night game this season (Ravens/Jets and Vikings/Jets). The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EDT and will be nationally televised on ESPN.

vegasinsider.com

Cardinals host Niners in Monday Night Football betting
By: Joe Freda

The Arizona Cardinals have dropped five straight, with a 1-4 NFL spread record in that stretch. Ken Whisenhunt’s crew hosts Monday’s matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, who are 1-5 ATS in their last six contests.

Sports books opened San Francisco as a one-point road favorite, while first setting the ‘total’ at 40. Early wagers on the Cardinals and ‘over’ moved the numbers on some boards to a pick ’em and 40 ½, respectively.

Arizona’s latest setback came in last Sunday’s 31-13 loss as a nine-point road dog against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cardinals could not muster a touchdown until the game’s final play, when wide out Larry Fitzgerald scored from three yards out.

Cardinals quarterback Derek Anderson completed 25-of-46 passes for 295 yards. The 27-year-old led his squad to 19 first downs in its 32 minutes of possession.

Arizona’s Timothy Hightower rushed for 62 yards on 12 carries. The three-year running back also caught three passes, finishing with 24 receiving yards.

The Cardinals’ defense had no answer for Kansas City’s rushing duo of Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones, who united for 159 yards on the ground. Jones reached the end zone twice, with the Chiefs' other two touchdowns coming through the air.

The lopsided affair’s combined 44 points dipped below the closing ‘total’ of 45, dropping the ‘over’ to 7-2 in the Cardinals’ last nine games. Hightower and Co. were sizably penalized 11 times for 96 yards.

Arizona is 1-3 ATS in its first four home dates, with the ‘over’ collecting at 4-0. The Cardinals have notched 26.8 PPG in that span, while allowing 404.8 YPG.

San Francisco could not get on the board in last Sunday’s 21-0 defeat as a 3 ½-point home favorite against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 49ers’ offense failed to enter the red zone in its 24 minutes of possession, reaching only as far as Tampa Bay’s 33-yard line.

49ers quarterback Troy Smith connected on 16-of-31 attempts for 148 yards. The Ohio native logged his first interception of the season, while being sacked six times.

San Francisco’s Frank Gore notched a season-low 23 rushing yards on 12 carries. The 27-year-old caught five passes for 37 yards, targeted a team-high eight times by Smith.

The 49ers’ defense allowed 299 yards, with 162 coming on the ground. Linebacker Patrick Willis registered his squad’s only two sacks en route to a team-high nine tackles.

The shutout’s 21 points plunged below the ‘total’ of 41, bringing the ‘under’ to 4-3 in the 49ers’ last seven games. Tampa Bay’s three touchdowns were all notched from inside San Francisco’s 10-yard line.

The 49ers are 1-3 ATS in their first four road games, with the ‘over’ going 2-1-1. Mike Singletary’s squad has not played away from home since Oct. 24, when San Francisco was defeated, 23-20, as a one-point favorite against the Carolina Panthers.

San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last five meetings against Arizona, with the ‘under’ cashing at 3-2. The 49ers swept last year's two matchups against their division rival, combining to outscore the Cardinals, 44-25.

Monday’s kickoff is scheduled for 5:30 p.m. (PT), with ESPN providing the national television coverage. The weather forecast in Glendale, AZ calls for a 55-degree night with calm winds.

Arizona remains on its home grass for next Sunday’s game against the St. Louis Rams. San Francisco travels to meet the Green Bay Packers as part of the same day’s card.

Betting Preview: San Francisco at Arizona
By Jeff Mattingly

San Francisco leaves the friendly confines of Candlestick Park and hits the road to face the Arizona Cardinals for a Monday Night Football showdown that will send one team in the NFC West cellar. Quarterback Troy Smith is set to make his fourth consecutive start, but will be watched closely by head coach Mike Singletary. "Last week Troy was coming off two wins and you want to ride that," Singletary commented. "This is the game where we have to take a step back and look at home he responds during this game and how he does." Monday will mark the third time this season that the 49ers have played in prime time. San Francisco is 39-24 when playing on Monday Night Football. The team is 0-4 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less.

The 49ers would be smart in getting the ball in the hands of running back Frank Gore tonight, considering he has 605 yards from scrimmage in five career games on Monday Night Football. His 505 rushing yards are the fourth most in team history in the prime time game. San Francisco has also had success offensively in this building, scoring 27.5 points per game over four contests at the University of Phoenix Stadium. Defensively, the team has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in the last 16 games, which marks the second-longest active streak in the NFL .

Arizona has battled the San Francisco 49ers on Monday Night Football ever since current head coach Ken Whisenhunt took over, with all of the games filled with memorable moments. "It's always something," said Cardinals wide receiver Steve Breaston. The Cardinals have dropped five straight games since their bye week and are coming off a 31-13 loss to Kansas City. "We are not really a confident team right now," said Whisenhunt. "I think it's a natural human emotion when you've lost five in a row and you've lost some of the games the way we have." The team was swept by the 49ers in last year's series and will look to avoid dropping three in a row for the first time since the 2003-04 campaign. Arizona is 9-6 ATS versus division opponents.

The Cardinals are still in contention despite carrying a 3-7 record because they play in the weakest division in football. The loser of this game will be at least two games out with five to play and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald has appropriately coined it a "make or break" game. "Hey, it's not our fault the division is weak," said Arizona guard Alan Faneca. "That's the league's problem. They're up in New York concerned about it. Not us." Offensively, the squad will need to improve upon its 25 combined points scored in the two meetings last year to pull off the home win.

Bettors will be interested in backing the 49ers due to their 17-5 ATS mark in Monday Night games, while the Cardinals are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games as a home underdog.