8:15 p.m. ET: Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers
This AFC North showdown features two teams with differing motivations. The Browns (7-8 SU, 7-8 ATS) have three of their last four games and just fell to the Packers 25-22 on Christmas Day, although Cleveland covered as 7.5-point road dogs. Cleveland has been eliminated from the playoffs and is looking to play spoiler. Meanwhile, the Steelers (7-7-1 SU, 6-9 ATS) are also limping down the stretch, going just 2-4 over their last six games. Pittsburgh just got crushed by Kansas City 36-10, failing to cover as 10-point road dogs. The Steelers are still "in the hunt" and not yet eliminated from playoff contention.
The early lookahead line on this game was Steelers -1.5 at home. We saw heavy Browns money show up early in the week, steaming Cleveland all the way to a 3.5-point road favorite. Then late Sunday night we saw massive sharp action hit the Steelers, flipping Pittsburgh back to a 2-point home favorite. Essentially all late money is siding with the Steelers now that the Browns are eliminated from the postseason. This is also likely to be Big Ben's final game at Heinz Field. At BetMGM, Pittsburgh is receiving 55% of bets and 62% of dollars. Brad Allen, the lead ref, has historically favored home teams (54% ATS). Monday Night Football home favorites are 7-2 straight up this season. The Steelers are -130 on the moneyline.
We've also seen some slight over money, pushing the total up from 41 to 42. Bets are split 50/50 but the over is getting 62% of the money at BetMGM. The forecast calls for clear skies and cold 30 degree temperatures. When the temperature is freezing, the over is 57% over the past decade.
These teams met back on October 31 and the Steelers won 15-10.
Lean Steelers