Big Al
3* Golden State Warriors
3* Phoenix Suns
3* Charlotte Bobcats
BEN BURNS
I'm playing on Philadelphia and Cleveland to finish UNDER the total. Its true that Monday nights have been very kind to over bettors this season. While those results will cause many bettors to favor the 'over,' they won't have any effect on how this evening's game is played on the field. I successfully played on the Eagles to finish below the total last week and on an ugly December night in Philadelphia, I feel that tonight's number, which has already climbed from its opener, is generous. Here's an excerpt from last week's writeup on the Eagles/Giants under: "The Eagles are allowing 20.7 points per game and a mere 286.2 total yards. Last week, they limited a very high-scoring Arizona team to just 20 points. Prior to that, not including the game vs. the Giants, the Eagles had held three of four opponents to 14 points or less. Note that the Eagles have shown a tendency to play low-scoring games at this time of year in recent years. In fact, they've seen the UNDER go 6-2 in the final four weeks of the regular season the last two seasons. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at 11-5 their last 16 road games played in the month of December. So, what did the Eagles do? They went in to New York and limited the defending Super Bowl Champs to 14 points and 211 yards! Naturally, the previously mentioned stats are all even better now. As for the Browns, they've been more respectable on defense than most people probably think. They're allowing a respectable average of 21.2 points per game on the road and just 21 on the road. Both marks are better than the league average. The Browns did allow 28 points last week. However, they held the high-scoring Colts and Texans to only 10 and 16 in their previous two games. The Browns have now seen the UNDER go a profitable 13-5-1 their last 19 games. The Eagles have seen the UNDER go 7-1 their last eight home games where the total ranged between 38.5 and 42 points. They've also seen the UNDER go a perfect 6-0 the last six times that they played a team with a losing record during the second half of the season. Look for those numbers to get even better tonight. *Annihilator
I'm taking the points with CLEVELAND. The Eagles have been playing well and they desperately need a win here. That being said, I feel that this will prove to be a tough spot for them and that this line is too high. For starters, the Eagles are just 5-8 ATS the last 13 times that they've been favored by double-digits. That includes an 0-2 ATS mark as home favorites of greater than 14.5 points. Additionally, they're an ugly 1-6 ATS their last seven games against teams from the AFC North, most recently getting blown out by Baltimore, after tying lowly Cincinnati. Speaking of Cincinnati, the Browns may well take some inspiration from their instate neighbors. The Bengals entered the week with a 1-11 record but knocked off an NFC East team (Washington) which desperately needed a win to stay alive in the playoff race. That's just another example of how "must win" games don't always win, let alone cover by more than two touchdowns. Philadelphia is off back to back huge games - a Sunday Night matchup with Arizona and a big revenge win over the defending champs. Although this is Monday Night, with a pair of division rivals (Dallas and Washington) on deck to close out the season, I feel that it will be easy for them to look past the lowly Browns. That will be a mistake though as Cleveland has been at its best on Monday Nights. Indeed, half of the Browns' wins this season have come on Monday. They beat Buffalo AND they blew out the Giants. Overall, the Browns are 12-4-1 ATS the last 17 times that they faced a team with a winning record including 6-1-1 ATS the last eight times that they did so in the second half of the season. Look for them to shine under the Monday night lights once again. *Non-Conf. GOW
I'm taking the points with UTAH. The Celtics are off to a great start and they've been rolling along recently. I played on the champs to go 'under' in their last game and they rewarded me by holding the Hornets to just 82 points. The Celtics, who are just 4-5 ATS this season after allowing 85 points or less in their previous game, viewed that as a 'statement' game. Off that big win, I won't be surprised if they are slightly less intense on the defensive side of the floor tonight. That will prove costly though as the Jazz are also an excellent team, even assuming that Boozer (currently doubtful) doesn't play. The Jazz blew a lead and were upset by the Magic in their last game. That typically doesn't sit too well with Coach Sloan and I expect him to have his team fully focused tonight. The Jazz are 28-16 SU the last 44 times they were off an upset loss as a favorite, including a 4-2 SU/ATS mark this season. The Jazz are also a highly profitable 60-42-4 ATS (63-43 SU) against teams with a winning record the past few seasons. That includes a blowout win the last time they played here in Boston. The Jazz were eight point underdogs for that game and they won by 18 points! The Jazz have only played four road games over the past few weeks. They won three of those games and they lost the other by just two points. Look for them to deliver a huge effort here, giving the champs all they can handle once again. *Best Bet
I'm playing on Denver and Dallas to finish UNDER the number. These teams played a fairly high-scoring game (108-105) against each other earlier this season. Note the final score was on pace to be somewhat lower before the teams combined for 62 fourth quarter points. More importantly, that game was played at Denver and Chauncey Billups was making his first game back with the Nuggets and there was an extra level of excitement in the building as a result. That result brought the 'over' to 4-2 the last six times that these teams played at Denver. However, tonight's game is at Dallas, where the Mavs can more effectively dictate the tempo and where the UNDER has been significantly more profitable. The last time (1/27/08) that these teams played here at Dallas, the total was 208.5 yet they combined for only 175 points. That game, which stayed below the number by more than 30 points, brought the UNDER to 6-2 the last eight times that the Nuggets traveled to Dallas. Looking back further and we find the UNDER at a highly profitable 16-4 the last 20 series meetings played here at Dallas. Overall, the Nuggets have seen the UNDER go 52-34-2 their last 88 games against teams from the Southwest. Not to be outdone, during the same stretch, the Mavs have seen the UNDER go 52-23 against teams from the Northwest. The Mavs have already seen four of their first six games this month fall below the number. Including those results, the UNDER is now 13-3 their last 16 games played in December. I expect tonight's game to also prove lower-scoring than expected with the final combined score staying beneath the generous number. *Blue Chip
I'm laying the points with USC. At first glance, this pointspread seems pretty high. However, I feel that it will prove to a mismatch and that the Trojans are more than capable of covering the large number. For starters, note that the Trojans are a profitable 23-14 ATS (37-0 SU!) the last 37 times that they were home favorites of greater than a dozen points. The Trojans covered the spread in their last game but lost by a single point to Oklahoma, their third loss of the season. That should spell trouble for Pepperdine. The Trojans bounced back from their previous two losses by going 2-0 SU/ATS in their following game, winning those games by 27 points, as a 13.5 point favorite, and 27 points as an 18 point favorite. They're a perfect 4-0 at home on the season, outscoring opponents by a combined score of 73.6 to 56.7 margin. Pepperdine, on the other hand, is winless on the road, getting outscored by a 77-57.7 margin in those games. The Waves are 1-8 on the season overall, including 0-3 SU/ATS their last three games. All those games were double-digit losers and none of those opponents were as strong as USC. Things should start getting better at Pepperdine soon. That being said, the Waves lack experience and on-court leadership and those flaws will be costly against a powerful and motivated opponent like the Trojans. Look for USC to jump on top early and never look back. *Personal Favorite
I'm taking the points with CLEVELAND STATE. I know that Syracuse comes in with an undefeated record but I still don't believe the Vikings are getting enough respect here. Cleveland State comes in allowing an average of just 48 points in four games this month. Last time out the Vikings held Marist to just 47 points, en route to an impressive 19-point victory. Prior to that, the Vikings limited Valparaiso to 42 points and followed it up by holding a pair of good teams (West Virginia and Butler!) to only 50 and 53 points. That type of stellar defense makes it difficult for teams to knock off the Vikings by large amounts. In fact, Cleveland State is 6-4 and NONE of their four losses came by more than 10 points. The Vikings are 4-2 SU and 4-1 ATS on the road, outscoring opponents by a 64.5 to 59 margin in those games. The Vikings are also 4-1-1 ATS the last six times that they were road underdogs of greater than a dozen points. During the same stretch, the Orange were just 7-11 ATS as home favorites of greater than a dozen points. Both teams played on Saturday. That figures to favor the vikings. Cleveland State is 14-7 ATS its last 21 lined games when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. During the same stretch, the Orange are just 6-8 ATS in 14 lined games, when playing with one or less day's rest in between games. Excluding a couple of games that landed right on the number, the Orange are a money-burning 39-61 ATS the last 100 times that they played a game vs. a team which allows 64 points or less. Look for them to have their hands full vs. this tough Vikings defense as the game proves to be much closer than most are expecting. *NCAA Best Bet
JB Sports
3* Kings
2* Heat
2* Nets
Erin Rynning
Playmaker Sacramento
Wall Street Sports Investors
BLUE CHIP - NJ Nets
AJ Apollo
Cleveland State +12
Seabass
50 Philly
30 Under
20 Celtics
50 Col/Det Under
Steam Char Over 185 NBA
DOC
3 Unit Play Take Over in Cleveland Browns at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are not a strong enough team to be laying this kind of wood but Cleveland does not have a quarterback and thus we will focus our attention on the total. For most of the season the over has been money in the bank on Monday night and that trend will continue as this total is way too low. McNabb has shown the ability to breakout against bad teams and that again will be the case today, as Philadelphia put up 30 points and we collect with the over in the process. Philly 31, Cleveland 17.
3-Unit Play Take Sacramento Over Minnesota
This is less of a pick for the Kings and more of a pick against Minnesota, who is a very bad road team. This team has only won two games all season on the road and they come in having lost nine straight overall. They have lost by double digits in five straight road games. Neither of these teams are very good but the Kings are better offensively and both teams are bad defensively. The Kings have traditionally been a solid home bet but this year that has not been the case but they have faced a lot more tough opponents at home. This is the same court they beat the Lakers on by double digits just last week so we think they will play confidently tonight against a team that they should beat.
LENNY STEVENS
10* Philadelphia Eagles
Andrew Powers Guaranteed Selections
COLLEGE HOOPS POWER PLAY WINNER
UC DAVIS -1
Indiancowboy
College Basketball GOM: (POD): Take Cleveland State +13 over Syracuse
Let's Hear it, Cleveland Rocks! Cleveland Rocks! Well, in this particular case, it is Cleveland State that will rock for us. Look, I have followed Cleveland State Basketball for quite a while now and Gary Waters has done wonders with this program. Hence, he gets my 5* recognition. Waters has this team as pre-season Horizon Favorites and given how competitive that conference has gotten. Look with All Conference Selections including Jackson and Bullock this team has great talent. Tack on the fact that Gary Waters has a lifetime winning % of 60% and he turned the Vikings season around immediately as they had their first 20 win season since 93-94 last year, what he has done is truly remarkable. This team is a strong rebounding team, plays great defense and takes care of the ball. In essence, they do all the intangibles. This team lost to West Virginia on the road by just 10 points and remember, WVU is a top 25 team in my power rankings (PR) while Syracuse is a top 40 team in the PR. Tack on the fact that the Cleveland State lost to Butler by a bucket at home when Butler was undefeated at the time and Syracuse comes off a big public win over Long Beach State, this sets us up nicely for a Cleveland State cover. Remember, the public is on Syracuse like a diaper rash on a two year old as they are all riding the jock straps of 'Cuse here and frankly unfairly so. I actually have 'Cuse winning this game by 6 points so I will take the 13 and roll with it. Syracuse has struggled against teams even outside the top 100 and I have Cleveland State as a top 75 team. Against Cornell who is ranked top 175 this team won by just 10 and against Virginia who is ranked in the top 110, this team won by just 3 points. Hence, they face a Cleveland State team who is a top 75 team and laying 13 points. The Vikings are 6-1 ATS as Underdogs of 13 points or greater and Syracuse is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games coming off a win of 20 points or greater. In short, we roll with the team that is coached extremely well, takes care of the ball very well, is a great underdog against a team who comes off a big public win and Vegas is on their tail when they come off such a big win. Let's roll with the Vikings! Cleveland Rocks! Cleveland Rocks!
3 Unit Play. Take Over 203 New Jersey Nets @ Toronto Raptors
I understand that Toronto comes off a tough loss to NO at home but they killed this Nets team back on December 12th 101-79. The Nets also come off back to back losses including that loss to the Raptors and a tough loss to the Bulls at home. I actually think the Nets could bounce-back nicely here. Heck, I wouldn't be surprised to see this game go over here as well as I expect the Nets to be active dogs. In short, I always say over and over again when I believe a team will be an active dog, that game will likely go over. This game is no different. I can't express to you how much these teams hate each other. This stems back to the Vince Carter days, as well as when these two teams met in the Playoffs when Jason Kidd led the charge for the Nets. Hence, with the Nets coming off back to back frustrating losses, having massive revenge against the Raptors and being an active dog, they are likely to run up the score as well as the fact the Raptors will look to be very competitive coming off their home loss to the Hornets. Look for a competitiv game, likely a Nets Outright Win, but more importantly, an over to cash here. The Over is 4-1 when the Nets are small Underdogs on the road and the over is 7-2 for the Nets when they are road underdogs period - which is a testament to the great play of Devin Harris making this offense that much better - Yes, I said it, Devin Harris is SIGNIFICANTLY better than Jason Kidd as a point guard as he is the best point guard in the Eastern Conference followed only by Rondo and Mike Bibby. But, that is for anoher day, look for both teams to surpass a 100 as we cash on th over.
3 Unit Play. Take Boston Celtics -9 over Utah Jazz.
Can you imagine playing the World Champs without your best player? Well, the Jazz will do just that today. With no Boozer, look for Kevin Garnett to abuse CJ Miles who is an extremely talented player, but frankly, the Celtics have an incredible deal of depth. But, more importantly, what people don't understand is that the Celtics love to kill good teams at home to send a message. By "kill" I mean beating the spead, because after all, that's all that really matters to us pathetic gamblers. The C's beat New Orleans by double-digits at home and also hammered the Magic at home. They send a message. You want to know something that is similar to both those games? This game. Why? Well, you see the Celtics hate teams that once defeated them in the past or their most recent memory of them is that team defeating them. The Magic had beat this team the last time they played them and the Hornets - and the Wizards had, and the Celtics remembered those games and killed this team. Well, the Jazz beat this team on the road last year and you better believe that the Celtics remember that game with a sour taste in their mouth. i look for the C's to lay the hammer down today on the Jazz and win by potentially 20, but more than likely 15-19. Look for a big third quarter from the C's today as the Jazz's legs cave through. Utah actually beat this team 110-92 on the road back on March 14th of last year and you don't think Boston remembers that? lol. Boston is 7-3 ATS of late and the beat goes on for Bean Town.
3 Unit Play. Take Over 183.5 between Charlotte Bobcats @ Atlanta Hawks.
You know, even in a loss, you need to pay attention to what goes on. Well, Charlotte came back in the second half against the Pistons and made a game of it, heck, they nearly covered the spread. The question begs here does that carry over in this game and does it start early? Possibly. The Hawks come off a big win over the Cavs at home and to their credit, I firmly believe the Hawks can beat any team at home. I actually think Charotte will likely be an active dog here and this game is likely to go over. Charlotte did put up 53 points in the second half as compared to 33 points in the first half as they got used to their new team. Bell will fit in nicely with the system and the point is with Bell and Diaw this team will be a shooting team more than ever. On top of that, Diaw plays his old team in the Hawks as well so expect a big game from him. If Charlotte is an active dog here, it's going to be a headache for the Hawks who will have to fend this team off and consquently, I believe this game will go over. I actually think Charlotte tops 90 points here and the Hawks win straight up, but likely fail to cover. More importantly though, I look for this game to go over as Charlotte will be an acive dog as they got their feet wet with the new team last game, look an for an over take effect in this game.
JEFF BENTON
15 DIME PHILLY
5 DIME BOBCATS
RAS
UC Davis -1
ASA
3* Knicks
3* Denver
John Fina
2.5 units Cleveland Browns +16.5
2.5 units Atlanta Hawks -7.5