Young Guns
4* Milwaukee/Washington Over
Kelso
25-Unit NBA Power Play Utah Jazz
Inside Play New Jersey Nets
Jim Feist
Total Of The Month
Toronto/Boston Under
Eddie Mush
4* Blazers -2.5
10* Texas +4.5
ISB
50 Units Notre Dame
Mike Lineback
Portland Trail Blazers
Paul Leiner
300* NJ/Okla Over 201
50* Notre Dame +6.5
10* Oklahoma -4
Indiancowboy
4 Unit Play (NBA) (POD). Take Under 190.5 between the Milwaukee Bucks @ Washington Wizards
Let's start off the week well in the NBA as it has been a bright spot for us looking for our 4th winning week in a row. For our selection today, let's take the under this evening in Washington. For starters, Milwaukee comes off a loss at Minnesota and we are particularly aware of that considering we took the Twolves who came back to win that game. As per this game, Milwaukee looks to bounce-back and likely wins here against Washington. But, the Wiz have revenge from an OT loss earlier this year at Milwaukee. The Bucks usually after a loss put a strong defensive effort the next game. Remember, that's how the Bucks find themselves 24-13 ATS on the year. Washington this year is not the offensive juggernaut they have been in the past and are an under team overall. Combine with the fact this team is just not shooting well at home and are playing a Milwaukee team that runs a half court offense very well, I think Milwaukee gets an early lead here and hangs on as they keep Washington's pace at bay throughout the game. The under is 4-0 when the Bucks are favored on the road. The under is 5-0-1 ATS for the Wizards following an ATS loss and the under is 8-1 when the Bucks are underdogs. In short, when the Bucks are road faves they play their style of game and it has a strong chance of going under and when the Wiz are underdogs playing better teams their offensive output is modest as well. I look for this game to total in the high 170's today.
4 Unit Play (CBB) (POD). Take Louisville -6.5 over Notre Dame
If you wait, you will get a better line for this game prior to game time as it will likely continue to go down. After all, more than 66% of the public is on the dog here. We have followed the Big East, Big 10 and Metro Altantic Basketball closely this year and we made a modest profit of +3.2 units. Let's go 5-2 on our PODs today and profit a bit more. For our CBB POD, I like Louisville to get it done here over Notre Dame. It seems too easy right? Notre Dame Fighting Irish ranked 13th in the nation as Underdogs?! They are catching 6.5 points?! The oddsmakers are dumb! This is way too easy! Like stealing candy from a baby! Think again. Let me ask you something. What has Notre Dame accomplished on the road this season? No, there wins at home do not count b/c playing at home and playing on the road in college basketball are completely different. Folks remember the Notre Dame win over Georgetown at home but they have amnesia when ND went to a team outsde the top 100 in St. Johns and lost by 6. Would you have taken Notre Dame +5 at St. Johns? St. Johns is not even ranked - well if you would have taken the +5, you woud have lost the wager. So, why would we not want to take a -6.5 here with Louisville who is a top 15 power ranking team. ND does not even classify in the top 40 of most power ranking sheets. In fact, ND only beat Loyola Marymount, one of the worst teams in Division I basketball outside the top 200 by just 11 points. ND did win nicely at home against Seton Hall and I look for them to be a let down here as once again, this team first of all has not played any team in the top 100 on the road, Louisville has the ability to defeat some good teams by a wider margin than this spread as they did againt Ole Miss and UAB. Plus, over 66% of the public favors the public dog here and that is never good news for the public dog. Louisville has a dynamic offense and Notre Dame's offense is very questionalbe on the highway at times. I look for Louisville and ND to be notched up at half and then for the the Ville to pull away in the second half and some free throws later, likely will by 10-12 here.
Mike Handzelek
NHL
Detroit Red Wings
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Los Angeles Kings UNDER
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Washington Wizards UNDER
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Chicago Bulls UNDER
Oklahoma City Thunder
NCAAB
Notre Dame
Scott Spritzer
Milwaukee Bucks
Dave Cokin
Tenn Martin (HAT)
AntonWins
4 units Oklahoma City +7
Seabass
100* NY Knicks
30* Chicago Bulls
20* Tenn Martin
20* Louisville
Dr Bob
2 Star Selection
Oklahoma City (+6 ½) over NEW JERSEY
Oklahoma City is 16-5 ATS since rookie star Russell Westbrook took over as the starting pointguard on November 29th and my ratings favor the Nets by just 4 ½ points with Yi Jianlian out for the Nets. Yi has played very well on both sides of the floor for the Nets this season, but the Nets will miss his defense most while he sits out with a broken finger. New Jersey ha allowed 1.08 points per possession when Yi is on the floor (not very good) and an even worse 1.12 ppp when Yi is on the bench. Overall, the Nets have out-scored their opponents by 1.6 points per 48 minutes with Yi on the floor and have been out-scored by 6.0 points per 48 minutes when Yi is not on the court. A lot of that difference is due to the fact that Yi plays a lot of his minutes with other Nets’ stars Vince Carter and Devin Harris, but after adjusting for that I calculate Yi’s value at 2.0 points per game, which makes the Nets 5.0 points worse than an average team without him (and with Harris back in the lineup). Oklahoma City has been 5.1 points worse than an average team in 21 games with Westbrook starting and home court advantage is 3.0 points in the NBA when both teams are rested – so I would favor New Jersey by just 3.1 points in this game using only the 21 games for the Thunder with Westbrook starting. Westbrook played a lot of minutes when he wasn’t starting, so the part of the difference between Oklahoma City’s rating with and without Westbrook starting is due to random variance. But, even with that being the case I still calculate a fair line of Nets by 4 ½ points in this game. In addition to the line value, the Thunder apply to a solid 89-38-2 ATS momentum situation that plays on bad teams after an upset win (Oklahoma City just won at Chicago on Saturday). I’ll take Oklahoma City in a 2-Star Best Bet at +5 points or more and for 3-Stars at +7 or more.2-Stars at +5 or more, 3-Stars at +7 or more.
COLLEGE
3 Star Selection
Tennessee Martin (-10 ½) over SE MISSOURI ST
SE Missouri State is one of the worst teams in division 1 basketball and Tennessee Martin is an underrated team that applies to a very good 141-60-5 ATS big road favorite situation. Tennessee Martin struggled early in the season, but the Skyhawks have played much, much better since forward Olajide Hay joined the lineup on December 15th after sitting out the first 7 games. UTM was 2-5 straight up without Hay, but the Skyhawks are 7-1 straight up and 4-2 ATS since he joined the lineup. Hay is the team’s 3rd leading scorer and second leading rebounder and his 66% shooting percentage speaks of his ability to get offensive rebounds for easy scores. SE Missouri State is a horrible 3-13 with their 3 wins coming against Culver-Stockton, Longwood and Western Illinois, which are 3 bad teams. The Redhawks just lost at home by 20 points to an Eastern Illinois team that is 6 points worse than Tennessee Martin and SE Missouri State is just 9-16-1 ATS in all line home games under coach Scott Edgar (0-7 ATS their last 7), who has a horrible 26-41-2 ATS mark overall in his coaching career. SE Missouri State applies to a negative 29-86-5 ATS weak home court situation and my ratings favor Tennessee Martin by 13 ½ points in this game. I’ll take Tennessee Martin in a 3-Star Best Bet at -12 points or less and for 2-Stars at -12 ½ or -13 points. 3-Stars at -12 or less, 2-Stars up to -13.
Executive
250 Louisville