The Hammer Guaranteed Selections
PRIVATE INVESTORS CLUB HOOPS WINNER
Miami Ohio +12.5
Kelso
35 units Bills -5
ATS Lock Club
3 units Browns +5.5
DOC
3 Unit Play. Take Central Michigan over Missouri State
Rose Arena is the sight of this mid-major match-up between the Bears and Chippewas. The Bears have a new coach in Cuonzo Martin and it will take some time to adjust to his new style of offense. This team was terrible on the road last year going 2-11 and definitely should not be favored in this game against Central Michigan. The Chippewas are coming off a victory against Princeton on the road and will take care of business on Monday. The Missouri Valley Conference is overrated and we will collect big in the offense season going against them.
GREG PRICE
MONDAY GAME OF YEAR
Cleveland Browns
BEN BURNS
MONDAY TOTAL OF MONTH
I'm playing on the Bills and Browns to finish UNDER the total. We've seen an awful lot of high-scoring games played on Monday nights this season. On a cold night at Buffalo, I expect tonight's game to prove to be the lowest-scoring of the bunch thus far. The Bills have struggled to score points of late. They've managed only 43 points the past three which, which is an average of only 14.33 per game. During that stretch, they've managed to average only 266 yards of offense per game. Not surprisingly, the UNDER has gone 3-0-1 their past four games. As the Bills are off three straight division losses, it's worth noting that the UNDER is 5-1-1 the last seven times the Bills were coming off back to back losses and 6-1-1 the last eight times they were coming off a loss vs. a division rival. The Bills defense has been solid all season, particularly here at Buffalo. In four games here, opponents are averaging only 18.2 points and 264.7 yards of offense. While the Browns defense hasn't been very good recently, I do expect the Cleveland defenders to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight. That's because the Browns have blown a couple of late leads recently and the offensive players have been pointing fingers at the defense. Note that Cleveland's defensive numbers are actually very respectable on the road this season. In fact, in their four road games, the Browns have allowed an average of just 17.7 points. They've only scored an average of 16 points in those games though, while managing an average of a mere 243 yards of offense in those games. Not surprisingly, the UNDER is 3-1 in their four road games. The Bills have seen the UNDER go 17-8 the last 25 times that they played a game with an over/under line in the 35.5 to 42 range. That includes last year's meeting with the Browns. You may recall that December game. The over/under line was 37, yet the teams combined for a mere eight points, an 8-0 victory by the Browns. Look for tonight's game to again prove much lower-scoring than most are expecting. *MNF TOM
PERSONAL FAVORITE
I'm laying the points with SIENA. Don't be fooled by Boise State's 1-0 record. The Broncos' victory came against Pacific University, a member of the Northwest Conference in Division III out of Oregon. It was good for them to get a win as now the Broncos take a major step up in class to take on a strong Siena squad. You may recall that the Saints made it all to the NCAA Tournament last season and that they crushed #19 Vanderbilt 83-62 when they got there before eventually losing to Villanova in the next round. The Saints are expected to finish first in the MAAC once again as they bring back senior guard Kenny Hasbrouck. Vanderbilt fans will remember that game as Hasbrouck dropped 30 points on them in that beating last March. Don't be surprised if Kenny Hasbrouck finishes as the Conference Player of the Year. The Saints have a lot more than that though. They've also got another pair of top tier MAAC players in Edwin Ubiles and Alex Franklin. Ubiles made the All-MAAC Tourney Team and was also a First-Team All-MAAC selection for the season. Franklin was a Second-Team All-MAAC performer. The Saints' talented trio averaged a whopping 48.2 combined points last season. While the Saints bring back plenty of firepower, the Broncos are very inexperienced. In fact, Anthony Thomas is the only returning starter. While Thomas had plenty of assists last season, he only averaged 8.5 points per game. That means that the Broncos have lost almost all their offense from last year. That's going to make it tough to compete with a Siena team which has big ideas again this season. The Saints crushed the Broncos 93-70 at Boise State last season and I expect them to win convincingly again. *Personal Favorite
BEST BET
I'm taking the points with OKLAHOMA CITY. As you know, the Rockets are the stronger team in this matchup. However, I believe that this will prove to be a difficult scheduling spot for them and that the line is too high. The Rockets are coming off a stretch of really "big games." They recently wrapped up a 5-game road trip with the last three of those games coming against the Lakers, Suns and Spurs. That was followed by a brief trip home to host New Orleans. Now it's back on the road for just a single game before returning home to host instate rival Dallas, before heading East on a 3-game trip. The point that I am trying to make is that it may be easy for them to overlook the lowly Thunder, a team which they have already beaten this season and which they have dominated for years. On the other hand, the Thunder should be extremely motivated here. For starters, this will be the first "rematch" that they've had with an opponent and, as already mentioned, the Rockets won when the teams met in Houston. A closer look shows that the Thunder covered the spread in that game and actually outscored the Rockets by a 48-32 count in the paint. The Rockets had a big advantage at the free throw line, where they went a sparkling 27 of 31, and they aren't as likely to have such a big advantage in that area on the road. Oklahoma City coach P.J. Carlesimo was pleased with his team's effort that night and commented: "I think we played well enough to beat a lot of teams tonight but not Houston in Houston." I look for another big effort from the Thunder and for them to improve to 4-0 ATS on the season when coming off a game in which they scored 85 points or less. *best bet
ANNIHLATOR
I'm playing on the LA CLIPPERS. The Clippers are off to another tough start and now they face a team which has always given them trouble. That being said, the Clippers are more talented than their record indicates and these aren't the same Spurs that we've seen in recent years. Indeed, San Antonio is currently playing without BOTH Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. Yes, the Spurs are off back to back wins. However, tonight they'll be playing their second of back to back games, after playing a hard-fought game at Sacramento last night. Back to back games have long been a problem for this team and that figures to remain true with Parker and Ginobili out of the lineup. The Spurs are already 0-2 ATS when playing the second of back to back games this season. Looking back further and we find the Spurs at a money-burning 5-13 ATS the last 18 times they played the second of back to back games and at 14-24 ATS in that situation since the start of the 2006 season. It's also worth noting that the Spurs are an ugly 6-13 ATS as road underdogs of three points or less during that stretch. The Clippers played 17 of their next 26 games on the road and desperately need a win this evening. Look for them to play their best game of the season and earn a rare victory in this series. *Annihilator
SEABASS
50* Buffalo
50* LA/San Antonio Over
20* Cornell
20* UMass
50* Utah St
50* Oklahoma St
50*OTTAWA
50*ISLANDERS
100* Steam Play Suns/Jazz Under
Paul Leiner
300* SA/LAC Over 177
50* Browns +5
10* St Johns -4.5
atslocks.com
Browns/Bills Over (15 unit play)
Miami (OH) +13 (5 unit play)
St. Mary's (CA) -22 (10 unit play)
HELMUT
Boise State @ Siena OVER 154
Siena comes into this game virtually returning their entire team from last season. They were the top scoring team in the MAC last season averaging 76.9 ppg. The Saints do not mind playing an up-tempo game and surely the Bronco’s will give them just that.
I believe this game should easily reach 150 total possessions and last season when this possession number was exceeded only 2/19 games failed to exceed this total.
There is some concern here because the Bronco’s are only returning one starter but traditionally Greg Graham has had good scoring teams averaging 82.5 ppg last season, 76.1 in 2006-07, 70.6 in 2005-06. What should make it easier for the Bronco’s to score her is that they will be facing the bottom team in the MAAC FG% defense. The Saints allowed opponents to shoot 45.2% from the field last season.
North Texas @ Oklahoma State OVER 151.5
Travis Ford brings a new style to Oklahoma State this season and that style is fast. His teams like to push the ball and play pressure defense.
Last season these teams met and played a fast paced high scoring game. The funny thing here is that the odds-maker used the same opening total from last year’s game. Just with the addition of Ford I would expect the Cowboys scoring average to improve drastically this season.
North Texas is no stranger to up-tempo basketball and had no problems scoring in the exhibition game and the season opener putting up 89 and 87 points. Keep in mind that they did score 82 last season against basically this same Cowboy team personal wise.
Score
200% Buffalo Bills
Executive
250 Browns
250 Marist
ATS Lock Club
4 Cal Santa Barbara -3.5
3 Toledo +19.5
ATS Financial Package
3 Cle/Buff Over 40.5
3 Oklahoma St -12
3 Troy +10
The Hoops Guru Guaranteed Selections
COLLEGE HOOPS TRIPLE PLAY WINNER
Arizona -18