SIXTH SENSE
NEW ORLEANS –2.5 Green Bay 51.5
Packers destroyed Chicago last week 37-3 and out gained the Bears 6.3yppl to 4.3yppl. Most surprising in that game was they rushed for 200 yards at 5.3ypr and held the Bears to just 4.3ypr. They also out passed Chicago 7.6yps to 4.4yps. The Saints went to KC and defeated the Chiefs 30-20, out gaining them 5.8yppl to 5.0yppl, including out passing them 7.4yps to 4.9yps. They were out rushed in the game 5.2ypr to 3.7ypr. For the season, the Packers are now average rushing the ball, averaging 4.0ypr against 4.0ypr. But, they average 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.4yppl against 5.2yppl overall. They allow 4.9ypr against 4.1ypr but the Saints don’t rush the ball well, averaging just 3.7ypr against 4.2ypr. GB allows just 5.1yps against 6.0yps and is getting better and healthier in the secondary. They allow 5.0yppl against 5.1yppl overall. The Saints average 7.9yps against 6.2yps and 6.3yppl against 5.4yppl overall. On defense they allow 6.5yps against 6.2yps and 5.6yppl against 5.3yppl overall. NO qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 79-34-6. Both teams actually qualify in a scheduling situation as long as this line is less than three points. If it is three points or higher, the Saints would not qualify. That situation is 65-25-2. The Saints also qualify in a negative rushing situation, which is 114-47-8. Numbers favor the Saints by just 1.5 points and predict about 57 points. The Saints are just 1-5 SU this year against .500 or better teams. The Packers are 3-5 SU in the same role but three of those five losses were by three points or less. The situations favoring GB are a little stronger as is the value. I have gone against GB three weeks in a row now and lost each of those weeks, although the Packers lost two of those three games but still managed to cover the spread. The Packers strength is their pass defense and throwing the ball. That matches up well against the Saints. Also, GB seems to have gained some momentum last week with their victory over the Bears and with their health getting better this is a good spot for them here. Total is a little too high for me to bite on the over. GREEN BAY 33 NEW ORLEANS 27
3% GREEN BAY +2.5
Spylock
New Orleans Saints -2.5
Pick Logic
Spurs / Grizzlies UNDER 1 unit
DATAMAN
SAINTS
3g
10* GAME of the MONTH
New Orleans Saints
Brandon Lang
20 Dime Packers
10 Dime Teaser Packers/Over
FREE - Packers/Saints Over
RAS
Alabama -3
Idaho +10
Big Al
MNF GOM
Saints
Las Vegas Sport Picks
2* Saints pk
4* NO/GB over 51
2* Islanders/Canadiens over 5.5 even
1* Bobcats +140
2* Texas -10
3* UCONN -4
3* San Francisco -1.5
3* LaSalle -3
3* Jax St/UMAS over 155
3* Notre Dame -15
4* Spurs/Grizzlies under 177
4* Magic -9
5* FAU/Davidson over 154
Craig Davis
40 Dime - Green Bay
Adam Meyer
5* GB/NO Under 51.5
Larry Ness
Monday Nite Mismatch
15* New Orleans
Oddsmaker's Error
Alabama
Las Vegas Insider
Kansas Jayhawks
Larry's Tourney Game of the Month
9* UConn
Jeff Benton
15 Dime GB/NO Over
10 dime Green Bay
Frank Patron
10000 Unit Monday Night Lock
New Orleans Saints -1.5
Jake Timlin
200* Green Bay Packers
Monday Night lock I like the Packers at any price. I mean number wises I like the Packers tonight all due to their 5 straight cover wins coming into tonight and their 15-5-1 ATS mark in their last 21 road games. Now on the field I like the Packers even more tonight all due to Green Bay offense that is now getting production out of Ryan Grant who will continue shine tonight against a bad New Orleans defense that will have a hard time slowing down the passing game of Rodgers. Meanwhile, for the Saints their offense tonight is their only hope, but due to a tough match up against the third best pass defense Brees and company are in trouble given their lack of a rushing attack. So in a must win game for both teams I say the Packers have a slight edge over a rusty New Orleans team that is playing at home for the first time in six weeks. Bottom line, I see Green Bay having a huge game tonight as they improve to 6-5 with a win. All Green Bay!
100* New Orleans Hornets
Bonus action now I like the Hornets minus the small road chalk. I mean given that New Orleans is a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS against the Clippers since April of 2007 winning by an average margin of 11 points per game it’s not to hard to back the Hornets tonight. Especially given that New Orleans will be facing a bad Los Angeles team that is 2-11 SU on the year, including an awful home record of 1-7 both straight up and against the spread losing by a whopping 11 points per game at Staples Arena. So not getting much of a challenge tonight I look for New Orleans to make easy work of the Clippers as the Hornets roll by double digits. All New Orleans minus the points!