JB Sports
Saints
Mike Rose
UConn
Pacific Star
Packers/Saints Over
Rocketman
Bowling Green
Alex Smart
UTEP
Northcoast
MONDAY NIGHT MAGIC
SAINTS
Monday Nite Total
GB/NO OVER 51
BEN BURNS
MONDAY NIGHT GAME OF THE MONTH
I'm playing on NEW ORLEANS. This is a huge game for both teams, so there should be no shortage of motivation on either side. That being said, playing at home, should give the Saints a significant advantage. Not including their victory over the Chargers at London, when they were designated the home team, the Saints have won three of their four home games this season. The three victories all came by a minimum of four points and they came by a combined score of 89- 40. The Saints could have easily avoided the lone loss, too. You may remember that game, as it came on a Monday night vs. the Vikings. New Orleans outgained Minnesota by more than a 100 yards on offense but committed four turnovers, dropped several passes and was called for 11 penalties for a total of 102 yards. Minnesota won by a field goal. In other words, the Saints could easily be perfect here for the season. Overall, they've outgained opponents here by an average of 430-290 yards per game. Naturally, they'd like nothing better than to atone for their previous loss under the Monday Night lights. While New Orleans has won three of four at home, the Packers have lost three of five away from Lambeau, including losses in each of their last two road games. With tonight's over/under line in the low 50s, its worth noting that the Packers are just 6-11-2 ATS the last 19 times that they played a game with a total of 49.5 or greater, including 0-3 SU/ATS the last three. Look for the Saints to continue their strong play at home, earning a crucial victory to avoid falling further behind in the highly competitive NFC South. *MNF GOM
MAIN EVENT
I'm playing on the Packers and Saints to finish UNDER the total. With Bush being downgraded from questionable to doubtful, the number has come down slightly from its opener. Its still extremely generous though and taking Bush (gametime decision) off special teams (or having him play at less than 100%) is probably worth a point or two, particularly if you can remember the Saints' last game under the Monday night lights. That was against Minnesota back in Week 5 and Bush single-handedly caused the game to finish above the total by having a remarkable night (two punt returns for TD's!) returning kicks. Even if he plays, its pretty unlikely that we'll see a repeat performance from the former USC star. The reason for the big number is that most are expecting another Monday night shootout. The Saints have had a great offense and a poor offense the last few years and most believe that to still be the case. That's not entirely true though, at least not when the Saints play here at the Superdome. While the Saints offense admittedly remains strong, in their four games here, they've allowed an average of only 17.5 points and 290 total yards per game. Considering that the overall league average is 22.4 points and 326.4 yards against, the Saints' home defensive stats are very strong. In their last game here, they allowed a mere three points. They allowed 17, 20 and 30 in their other three games. However, they gave up the 30 in the previously mentioned game vs. Minnesota and the Vikings actually had trouble moving the ball (270 total yards and 5 of 15 on 3rd down) but were handed their points when New Orleans kept turning the ball over. The Saints last game came on the road and they were solid defensively in that one, too, limiting KC to 20 points. That doesn't sound particularly impressive until mentioning that the Chiefs have averaged better than 25 ppg in their last four games, not incl. the one vs. New Orleans. I believe that the Packers' defense is also somewhat underrated. The Packers enter tonight's game having allowed a respectable 20.9 points per game on the season. That only tells half the story though, as they've been at their best on that side of the ball recently. Last time out, the Packers held the Bears to three points and that marked the fourth time in five games that they have held their opponent to less than 20 points. Seven of the Packers' last eight games have finished with 51 combined points or less (the other had 55) and I look for tonight's game to do the same. *Main Event
NBA BLUE CHIP BLOWOUT
I'm playing on Portland and Sacramento to finish UNDER the total. These teams faced each other a few nights ago and the total closed in the 190s. That game finished with 213 combined points and that high score has helped to give us additional value, as the line has already climbed above the 202 mark. Note that the Kings have played two road games with an over/under line in the 200 to 204.5 range. Both those games fell below the number. Portland hasn't played any home games with totals in that range this year, However, if we look back we find the UNDER at a healthy 9-3 the last 12 times that they played a home game with a total in that range. Friday's game was at Arco Arena. Tonight's game is at Portland and the Blazers have played much better defense here. While they're allowing 98 on the road, they're limiting opponents to just 91 here at home. In their last game here, the Blazers held the Bulls to a mere 74 total points. That game stayed beneath the number which brought the UNDER to 5-0 the last five times that the Blazers were laying points at home. Even with Friday's game finishing above the number, the UNDER is still 5-2 the last seven meetings in the series with six of those games producing 200 combined points or less. Look for tonight's game to prove lower-scoring than expected once again. *Blue Chip
PERSONAL FAVORITE
I'm laying the points with NEW MEXICO. After suffering a disappointing loss last time out, I expect the Lobos to be anxious to wipe the floor with the Matadors tonight. Keep in mind that New Mexico has always enjoyed a very strong homecourt advantage and that the Lobos had previously won 33 straight non-conference home games. Saturday's result notwithstanding, the Lobos are still 15-2 SU (9-3-1 ATS in lined games) their last 17 November games. They're also a profitable 11-2 ATS (now 12-1 SU) the last 13 times that they were listed as home favorites of greater than 12.5 points. In this season's two previous games here, they won by a combined 89 points. Granted, neither opponent was very good. However, the Matadors aren't exactly a powerhouse either. They're 1-4 ATS the last five times they were road underdogs of greater than 12.5 points and they're also in the middle of a six-game road trip. The Lobos, 13-5 ATS their last 18 lined games against teams with a losing record, have beaten up on these type of teams for years. With a whopping six players averaging double-digits in scoring in their lineup, I look for them to do so again tonight. *Personal Favorite
DOC
3 Unit Play.Take Under 51 in Green Bay Packers at New Orleans Saints
A must win game for both teams takes place on Monday night in the Big Easy. Anytime you see a 50-plus total in the NFL it usually means we will have a strong play on the under as this is once again the case. With the clocks running on first downs and restarting on out of bounds plays it is tough for NFL games to reach fifty points. The Packers have went over this posted today just one time in their last six games and we will not worry about who wins this pickem game and just collect with the under. New Orleans 27, Green Bay 21
3-Unit Play Take New Orleans/LA Clippers OVER
We had some significant overnight line movement on this one and the number has dropped to a point where we think there is nice value on the over here. New Orleans has played well offensively in their last two games, albeit against OKC, but they averaged 107 PPG in those two contests. Tonight they face a defense that gives up 101 PPG, on average. They surrendered 114 and 111 in their last two meetings with the Hornets and we think that New Orleans will surpass or at least get close to the Century Mark tonight and the Clippers will just have to make up the difference to put this one over the number. Five of the last seven meetings have gone over the posted number and that’s how we see this one playing out at Staples Center tonight.
3 Unit Play.Take Philadelphia over Dallas
The Stars will be without their captain Brendon Morrow and they will enter this game having lost two straight and five of their last six. The Flyers have won their last two home games and four straight overall. These two teams are heading in opposite directions and expect this trend to continue as we collect big with the home team.
RAS
Alabama (-3) Rating: 1.00
Idaho (+10) Rating: 1.50
Loyola Maryland (+2.5) Rating: 1.00
kelso
25 UnitsPackers (+1) over Saints
8:30 PM -- Louisiana Superdome
Green Bay Packers by 6-7
3 units under
Ron Raymond
5* 76ers / Bobcats Over 176
Opposite Action Plays
Saints
Root
Chairman- Saints
Millionaire- Alabama
Money Maker- Washington
Seabass
NHL
50*Detroit
NFL
20*Green Bay
NCAAB
20*UConn
20*Kansas
50*Alabama
NBA
20*Houston/Miami under
50*Sacramento/Portland under
Dr Bob
4 Star Selection
SAN FRANCISCO (-1 ½) over UC Santa Barbara
San Francisco had a miserable 2007-2008 season, as they suffered through a coaching change and spent the last half of the season playing a style under veteran coach Eddie Sutton that didn’t suit their talents. USF has some talent, as F Dior Lowhorn is a likely NBA player and G Manny Quezada is an all-around talent that can score (13.9 ppg last year) and pass the ball (4.6 assists). New coach Rex Walters has added some talented pieces to fill out the rotation and sharp shooting transfer Blake Wallace gives the Dons another outside threat (41% 3-pointers) to make teams pay for doubling Lowhorn in the paint. Freshman G Kwame Vaughn is averaging 10.8 points on 54% shooting and pointguard Dontae Bryant is an unselfish compliment to all the scorers. USF looks like an underrated team thanks to the coaching change and the impact of their new players. UCSB, meanwhile, lost 20 point scorer Alex Harris to graduation along with top rebounder Ivan Elliott (who also made 56% of his shots) and the biggest problem may be a slow healing injury suffered by pointguard Justin Joyner, whose ability to break down a defense helped the Gauchos half court offense immensely. Joyner will redshirt this season and the Gauchos appear to be a middle of the pack Big West team without their 3 most important players from last season’s team. My ratings favor USF by 4 ½ points in this game and using this year’s games only would result in a prediction of USF by 7 points. In addition to the line value the Dons apply to a very good 92-26-1 ATS early season indicator that won for me yesterday with Portland. I’ll take USF in a 4-Star Best Bet at -2 points or less, for 3-Stars from -2 ½ to -4 points and for 2-Stars at -4 ½ or -5 points.
4-Stars at -2 or less, 3-Stars from -2 1/2 to -4 and 2-Stars at -4 1/2 or -5.