SIXTH SENSE
Opinion
HOUSTON –3 Jacksonville 48.5
Jacksonville fumbled their first snap from the line of scrimmage last week and that fumble was picked up and ran into the end zone for a touchdown. They fumbled the following kick off and the Vikings soon took that into the end zone as well. Before you knew it Minnesota was up 14-0. While Jacksonville lost the game 30-12 they did out gain Minnesota 5.1yppl to 4.0yppl. They passed for 5.8yps and held Minnesota to just 4.5yps and 3.6ypr. Those yards per play numbers are a little skewed because Minnesota ran the ball 20 times more and Jacksonville passed the ball 26 times more. Houston went to Cleveland and played a very solid game in their 16-6 win. They out gained the Browns 5.6yppl to 4.6yppl, including out passing them 8.2yps to 4.5yps. They only rushed for 3.1ypr and allowed Cleveland to rush for 4.8ypr. Jacksonville averages just 5.7yps against 6.1yps and 5.0yppl against 5.2yppl but they will face a Houston defense allowing 4.5ypr against 3.9ypr, 6.9yps against 5.8yps and 5.7yppl against 5.0yppl. Jacksonville allows 4.2ypr against 4.0ypr, 6.7yps against 6.0yps and 5.5yppl against 5.1yppl and they will face a very good Houston offense. Houston averages 4.4ypr against 4.1ypr, 7.0yps against 6.1yps and 5.9yppl against 5.2yppl. Jacksonville qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 133-87-5. That situation isn’t quite strong enough for me to make this game a best bet. Numbers favor Houston by four points and predict about 53 points. Houston has won four of the last five played here by at least four points. Two of the last three have totaled at least 58 points scored. I would look to play the over here but the total is fairly high and Jacksonville hasn’t demonstrated a history of high scoring games on the road this year. HOUSTON 27 JACKSONVILLE 27
Brandon Lang
15 Dime Texans
(if your man has 3-1/2 you buy the 1/2 and only lay 3. Remember, don't ever get beat by the hook.)
5 Dime 6-Point Teaser Bonus - Texans with Jags/Texans Over
FREE Jags/Texans Over
Pointwise Phone
2* Jacksonville
LPW Forecast
5* Kansas
IndianCowboy
Timberwolves +145 over Charlotte (3 units)
Sometimes, you just have to buck up and roll with some moneyline plays. Look, we just had the Nets win outright yesterday, we had the Blazers win outright over the Pistont last week and many dogs that we have actually win outright. Do I really think the 3.5 points will make the difference? I don't think so. I think we can go ahead and make a calculated risk here for the 3 units and gain 4.5 units. Note, that Charlotte is favored by more than 70% of the public here and I have no idea why. Sure, this team is a small chalk at home, but this is the same team that is 4-7 at home not to mention Minny comes off a loss to Denver at home and have beaten the likes of the Pistons outright on the road as well as Philly at home. Call me crazy, but I think the Twolves win this baby outright as this is a solid public fade as well. The Bobcats come off a tough loss to Boston but I simply think the Twolves end up winning this game as with the likes of Jefferson, Foye, Miller and Gomes this team is dynamic. The Twolves are 4-1 ATS against teams on the road of late and the Bobcats are 1-7-1 ATS agianst teams with a winning % of less than 40% meaning they are making the grade in games they are "supposed" to win.
This is a premium play and it is serves as the comp play today as well.
igz1 sports
MNF
3* Over 48 (-110) Jacksonville vs Houston
NHL
4* Under 6 (-110) Toronto vs Los Angeles
CBB
4* Idaho +2.5 (-110)
CHARLIE
500* Jacksonville @ Houston Over 48
30* Houston -3
20* Wisconsin +2'
20* Kent State +12
10* Charlotte -3'
Orlando +9 free play
BEN BURNS
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL MAIN EVENT
I'm playing on the Texans and Jaguars to finish UNDER the total. These teams have met 13 times since the Texans entered the league. All 13 of those games had over/under lines which fell in the 36 to 42.5 range. Tonight's total is significantly higher than any of them and I feel that provides us with excellent value. The Texans admittedly haven't been among the league's best defensive teams this season. That being said, they're coming off a terrific effort on that side of the ball. Last week, Houston went in to Cleveland and limited the Browns to just 240 total yards and a mere six points, including 0 in the second half. It was the second time in the last five games that the Texans had held an opponent to less than seven points for an entire game. Jacksonville saw last week's game slip above the total. However, that was a much lower number than tonight's and game still only produced 42 combined points. The Jags have now seen six of their last seven games produce fewer than 48 combined points. The Jags were embarrassed by last week's performance and I expect them to respond with a big effort on defense. Note that even though this year has been a major disappointment, Jacksonville is still only allowing 18 points per game on the road. The Jags have seen the UNDER go 3-1 the last four times that they played a game with an over/under line in the +3 to -3 range and 3-0 the last three times they played on Monday night. Look for tonight's game to also fall beneath the generous number. *Main Event
PERSONAL FAVORITE
I'm laying the small number with VIRGINIA TECH. Both these teams have been solid defensively while putting up similar numbers on offense to start the season. The Hokies are averaging 68 points per game while the Badgers are averaging 67. The Hokies have a couple of important advantages in their favor though. For starters, the game is being played at Cassell Coliseum. That's worth noting as the Hokies are perfect here on the season, most recently knocking off Elon by double-digits. Additionally, the Hokies have the schedule in their favor. Both teams were involved in a tournament last week. The Hokies were at Puerto Rico while the Badgers played at the US Virgin Islands. The Hokies wrapped up their trip last Sunday though and returned home for a home game on Wednesday. Conversely, the Badgers finished their trip on Monday and then had to fly back for Madison for a game vs. instate rival Wisconsin-Milwaukee. Additionally, they've got an even bigger instate rival (Marquette) on deck. The Badgers have a pair of players averaging double-digits in scoring. Hughes has 14.2 while Landry has 12.5. However, the Hokies have a trio of scorers ALL averaging over 16 per game. In addition to having the homecourt and scheduling advantage, I also believe that this game will be bigger for Virginia Tech, as the Hokies rarely get to host ranked non-conference teams. Look for them to give a huge effort, earning the win and cover and handing the Badgers another loss in the Big Ten/ACC challenge. *Personal Favorite
DOC
4 Unit Play.Take Kansas over Kent State
The Jawhawks have the major edge in talent and will take care of business tonight @ Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, KS. The Golden Flashes lost both games in South Padre Island and will struggle in this game as well. Both losses came against mediocre teams in Illinois and Texas A & M, but tonight they will get a major step-up in class. The Hawks will stop Al Fisher and in essence that will stop Kent State.
3 Unit Play.Take Over 48 in Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texas
Las Vegas Sport Picks
NHL:
1* Canucks/Jackets over 5.5 -110
1* Red Wings -1.5 +155
NBA:
2* Wolves/Bobcats under 184
1* Warriors +145
2* Heat/Warriors over 212
3* Warriors +4
NFL:
2* Texans/Jags over 48
NCAAB:
2* Kent St/Kansas over 135
2* Idaho/Sac St. over 133
Robert Ferringo
San Francisco +17 2 Units
Va Tech -1.5 1.5 Units
MONEYLOCKOFTHEDAY
Wisconsin +3 3 units
Frank Patron
10000 Unit Monday Night Lock
Houston Texans -3
Dr. Bob
Opinion
HOUSTON (-3.5) 27 Jacksonville 21
Houston should have no problem out-gaining the Jaguars in this game, but Sage Rosenfels is probably going to have to keep his interception count to 2 or less to win by more than a field goal. Rosenfels has averaged an impressive 7.5 yards per pass play (against teams that would allow just 6.0 yppp to an average QB), but he’s also thrown a not so impressive 9 interceptions on just 148 passes thrown. Rosenfels is not likely to get picked off at that high a rate going forward but his horrendous 5.2% career interception rate still suggests an average of 1.6 picks per game going forward. Houston’s offense will certainly move the ball, as the Texans have averaged 6.0 yards per play this season and are 1.0 yppl better than average with Rosenfels at quarterback. Jacksonville has allowed 5.6 yppl this season (to teams that would average 5.2 yppl against an average team) and the Jaguars gave up 6.3 yppl at home to the Texans in their 30-27 week 3 victory. Houston’s defense is 0.6 yppl worse than average while the Jaguars are 0.4 yppl worse than average on offense, so the Jags don’t have much of an edge when they have the ball. They do have an advantage in keeping the ball, however, as quarterback David Garrard is on pace to become the NFL’s all time leader in lowest career interception percentage (1.96%) once he has enough passes to qualify. The Jaguars are projected to be +0.8 in turnover margin, but my math still favors Houston by 6 ½ points due to their ability to move the football.
NSA
NFL Jacksonville @ Houston 8:30 PM EST 20* Houston -3
NFL Jacksonville @ Houston 8:30 PM EST 10* OVER 48