SIXTH SENSE
Opinion
The Bears got by with a win in OT last week against NO but they were out gained in that game. NO out gained Chicago 4.5yppl to 3.6yppl, including 5.1yps to 4.1yps and 3.7ypr to 2.8ypr. GB settled for field goals instead of touchdowns in their loss at Jacksonville. They were out gained 6.0yppl to 5.4yppl and out rushed GB 4.9ypr to 3.0ypr. GB out passed Jacksonville 7.3yps to 6.5yps. GB averages 6.5yps against 6.1yps and 5.5yppl against 5.2yppl. They allow 4.8ypr against 4.2ypr but just 6.1yps against 6.3yps for a total of 5.5yppl against 5.4yppl. Chicago has been terrible on offense gaining just 3.9ypr against 4.2ypr, 5.5yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. They allow 3.5ypr against 4.1ypr, 5.7yps against 6.2yps and 4.8yppl against 5.3yppl. That makes the Packers slightly better from the line of scrimmage. Chicago qualifies in a very strong letdown situation, which is 103-35-3 as long as they are favored by four or more points. But, Chicago qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 677-532-42, including a subset, which is 525-402-30. Numbers favor Chicago by 4.5 points and predict about 49 points. GB is 0-4 SU on the road against .500 or better teams this year. Chicago is 2-0 SU at home against below .500 teams this year. If this line would move to less than four points I would consider the Bears as a Best Bet but at –4 or higher the strong situation applies against them so I can just lean their way right now. If this line goes to –3.5 or lower make Chicago a Best Bet for 3%. CHICAGO 30 GREEN BAY 20
2 Minute Warning
Best Bet Green Bay
RAS
Boise St. +10' 1 Unit
LB St. +7 ... 1' units
CS Fullerton -8 1 unit
Brandon Lang
20-Dime 6-Point Teaser Packers and Over
FREE - Packers/Bears Over
C-Stars Sports
2000 Units Super Play Green Bay/Chicago over the total
1000 Units Top Play San Diego St. minus the points over CSU Northridge
50 Units Chicago minus the points over Green Bay
50 Units St. Joseph's minus the points over Cornell
KB Hoops
3* Memphis -22
3G-Sports
NFL
Green Bay Packers 5*
NHL
OVER - Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Buffalo Sabres 4*
NCAABB
George Mason 4*
Temple 4*
RON RAYMOND
5* Green Bay Packers +4
5*Denver Nuggets -3.5
5* Kings / Spurs Over 198
Boise State +9.5
Fresno State +12.5
3-GAME NHL PROLINE PICK PACK
Atlanta Thrashers -125
Buffalo Sabres -115
Anaheim Ducks +125
Robert Ferringo
2-Unit Play. Take Marquette (-2) over N.C. State
1.5-Unit Play. Take Florida Atlantic (+17) over UAB
2-Unit Play. Take Utah (+4.5) over Utah State
1.5-Unit Play. Take USC (-7) over Georgia Tech
1.5-Unit Play. Take Chattanooga (+12.5) over Alabama
1.5-Unit Play. Take Boise State (+10.5) over San Diego
1.5-Unit Play. Take DePaul (Pk) over St. Louis
Larry Ness
20* Monday Night Game of the Month
The Packers destroyed the Bears at Green Bay in Week 11, routing Chicago 37-3. The Bears hardly looked like a playoff-caliber team in that game, surrendering 30 unanswered points, allowing a season-high 200 rushing yards and Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers was 23-of-30 for 227 with two TDs and one INT (had a 105.8 QB rating). Meanwhile, Bears QB Kyle Orton had an awful game (133 YP), including a fumbled snap that was returned for a 54-yard TD in the fourth quarter. Adding insult to injury, Orton was pulled for Rex Grossman. The Green Bay win left both the Packers and Bears at 5-5. However, look what's happened since. The Packers have 'imploded' (0-4 SU and ATS), while the Bears have won THREE of four. Chicago's playoff hopes also got a huge boost these last couple of days, as the Cowboys lost on Saturday with Minnesota, Philadelphia and Tampa Bay all losing yesterday. A win here and next week at Houston and the Bears could be in the postseason. Let me first say that Green Bay's woes have little to do with Aaron Rodgers. He enters the final two games of the season (his first as a starter), having completed 63.7 percent for 3,470 yards with 23 TDs and 12 INTs. Let me remind everyone that before Favre's terrific 2007 season, his QB rating in 2005 was 70.9 (20 TDs / 29 INTs) and 72.7 in 2006 (18 TDs / 18 INTs). Favre led the Jets to an 8-3 start TY but they've now lost THREE of four and Favre's (84.0 rating with 21 TDs and 19 INTs) not having a better season than Rodgers this year! The Green Bay defense has just fallen apart these last four games, allowing 32.5 PPG. The rush D has been an issue all season (138.2 YPG / 4.8 YPC) but after ranking among the league's top teams against the pass for the season's first 10 games, Green Bay's pass D has been a mess. Brees started the carnage on a Monday night (323 YP / 4 TDs ) and Schaub threw for 414 yards against the Packers in Week 14. The team's four-game total in this 0-4 SU and ATS run shows 1,152 passing yards allowed (288.0 per). Putting that in perspective, Seattle ranked last in passing yards entering Week 16 at 260.9 YPG. Let me also note that Green Bay had allowed just 11 TD passes through its first 10 games (while intercepting 17!) over 330 attempts but over these last four games (119 attempts) has allowed eight TDs with just one INT! I expect Kyle Orton to play much better this time around vs Green Bay, as he's had a very solid year for the Bears. He's provided them with steady play at QB (Rex is now a distant memory), throwing 15 TDs and only 10 INTs for a respectable 80.1 QB rating. Rookie RB Matt Forte (1,115 / 4.0 YPC) is hardly spectacular but gives Chicago the kind of running game it had with Thomas Jones (why did the Bears ever let him go?). The first-year player from Tulane also leads the team with 58 catches. There's nothing special about Chicago's receiving corps as while Hester is an All-Pro return man, he's a mediocre WR (43 catches / 13.2 YPC / 4 TDs). However, the TE combo of Olsen and Clark has accounted for 81 catches. This will be Chicago's third straight home game and the Bears come in well-rested, off Week 15's Thursday night game. Chicago's playoff hopes are very much 'alive' and the Bears will show little mercy for the hated-Packers, who have shown to have little left in their collective 'tanks.'
Monday Night Game of the Month 20* Chi Bears.
Revenge GOW
The series between these two schools dates back to 1908-09 and is comprised of 220 games, second-most for the Aggies behind the 224 games they've played with BYU. The Utes lead the series 129-91 but the teams have alternated wins in the last six meetings. Utah's Jim Boylen is in just his second season at Utah but Utah State's Stew Morrill enters his 11th season at Logan. It's been quite a decade for him and the Aggies, as Morrill has led the Aggies to nine consecutive 20-win seasons and nine straight postseason appearances, including five NCAAs. The superlative Jaycee Carroll (22.4-6.0 LY) is gone after a great four-year career, as is last year's PG, Kris Clark (5.6-6.4 APG). However, the cupboard isn't bare, as the Aggies are off to an 8-1 start, losing only 68-63 to BYU in game played in Salt Lake City. So far, 6-9 center Wilkinson (17.7-8.2) and the 6-7 Wesley (11.3-6.2) have played very well in the early going. Newbold (10.1-4.0-2.6) is starting again at the small forward position and while new, the backcourt has played fairly well. JC transfers Quayle (9.3-4.8) and Williams (7.6) have been solid, joined by redshirt freshman Myaer (5.9). The Utes won 74-64 on Saturday over Weber State. as the victory halted a three-game slide by Utah (now 6-4). Many felt the Utes, with the 7-2 Nevill (16.7-7.8) and the 6-10 Tillie (3.9-4.0), would be able to stick with Blake Griffin and the Sooners back on 12/13 but Utes were manhandled in Norman, 70-52 (Griffin only had 11-11 but all five Okla starters scored in double digits). The Utes won just 25 games in the two years before Boylen took over, so LY's 18-15 season was one in which the team made some strides. However, the graduation of guard Johnnie Bryant (14.2) hurts and PG Drca (6.5-3.6 APG) is expected to miss again tonight, still serving a suspension. Senior guards Kepkay (11.2) and Borha (10.3) are solid plus the 6-8 Green (11.8-5.5) gives help to Nevill inside. Utah picked up a 72-48 win at home in Salt Lake City last year and that makes it Utah State's turn this year. Why shouldn't the Aggies win? Utah State has won 16 in a row at home against in-state opponents and has the second-longest regular-season home win streak against non-conference foes at 57 games. The Aggies are one of the top shooting programs in the country at 52.9 percent from the floor and I llok for them to 'gun down' the Utes fairly handily in this one.
Revenge Game of the Week 15* Utah State
8* Western Conf Game of the Month
The Nuggets won 16 of their first 20 games after acquiring Chauncey Billups from Detroit last month but they've dropped their past three games and enter tonight's Northwest Division game with the Blazers at 17-10, same as the Blazers (Jazz are 17-12). Denver can't be complaining too much though, as Billups (17.7-6.9 APG) has really brought this team together. Carmelo's (20.5-7.4) been quiet in the lsoing streak but is still an outstanding scorer plus the return to health of Nene (13.9-7.3) has been huge. He's a little undersized to be playing in the middle but Denver's rotation has been working (despite the three-game slide). Martin (12.2-6.8) has been reasonably healthy at power forward while JR Smith (13.4-4.) has thrived in his role of coming off the bench. Kleiza (9.4) and Carter (6.2) are solid role players. The Blazers haven't played since Thursday, when Brandon Roy (23.4-4.6-5.2) scored 52 points at home against Phoenix, as the Blazers erased a seven-point halftime deficit to win 124-119. Roy's clearly one of the league's top players and Aldridge (16.7-6.8) continues to improve at the PF position. However, the jury is still out on Portland's Greg Oden (8.0-7.7), the league's overall No. 1 pick two years ago, who has been very inconsistent in his first year (missed all of LY with an injury). Rookie Rudy Fernandez (10.9) has been terrific off the bench, as has SF Travis Outlaw (10.5-4.), who is having his second straight good season. However, the Blazers are still vulnerable on the road, going 8-8 SU (6-10 ATS) away from the Rose Garden, where they've opened 9-2 this season. Yes, the Nuggets have lost three straight but those losses have come at Houston (18-9), home to the Cavs (23-4) and at Phoenix (16-11). The Nuggets haven't lost four straight games since February of 2007 and the Nuggets have dominated the Blazers here in Denver in recent years. The Blazers beat the Nuggets here in Denver 116-105 on 12/16/2007 but that ended a run of NINE straight wins by the Nuggets over the Blazers in Denver. This is a great spot for the Nuggets and they end their current mini-slump with ease.
Western Conf Game of the Month Den Nuggets.
Oddsmaker's Error-CBB
Bill Coen is in his third year at Northeastern and returned all five starters from LY's 14-17 team. He'll take a 5-4 record into tonight's game at Bloomington, hoping to continue the team's winning streak in this rather odd four-game road trip. The road trip began with a win at James Madison in the team's CAA opener on December 6th and continued with a 76-71 double-overtime win at Harvard on December 10th. Northeastern hasn't played since and after tonight's game will complete this trip with a stop at Memphis on New Year's Eve. Janning (16.2-3.7), a junior swingman, is the team's leading scorer with 6-4 sophomore guard Allen (10.2-4.9-3.6) being the only other player to score in double digits. The Huskies have decent height (more than Indiana, for sure), with the 6-8 Adako (9.8-3.4), the 6-8 Spates (8.0-3.8) and the 6-9 Ojoughoh (8.2-4.7), being the biggest contributors. Everyone remembers last year's 'nightmare' season at Indiana, with Kelvin Sampson getting thrown out. Indiana won 25 games LY but no starters remain and only 6-8 former walk-on Taber (3.9-4.9) has any real role this year. Tom Crean (190-96 in nine seasons) has taken over as head coach and most feel he'll be just fine in a while. All in all, I believe the Hoosiers have been reasonably impressive so far. They are 5-5 and have yet to lose at home (4-0). Devan Dumes, a 6-2 transfer from Vicennes University (Ind), is averaging 13.2 PPG and has teamed with Taber and a 'boatyard' of freshman. The 6-9 Pritchard (13.1-7.6) is the best of the bunch, with 6-4 guard Williams (8.8-5.1) plus two 6-5 swingman, Jones (7.9) and Storry (6.9), making solid contributions. Two more freshman guards, Roth (6.3) and Moore (6.4) are also making contributions. Northeastern hasn't played in nearly two weeks and a team which averages a modest 64.4 PPG is playing in Indiana's famous Assembly Hall on what is an elongated road trip. That's not a favorable situation and don't forget, the Hoosiers are 4-0 at home, winning by 18, three, 15 and 10 points. Once again (I used Indiana as an Oddsmaker's Error play in its 15-point home win over Cornell on 11/30 with a similar pointspread!), linemakers are selling the Hoosiers way too short against a very mediocre opponent.
Oddsmaker's Error on Indiana.
Jeff Benton
10 Dime: PACKERS (plus the points vs. Bears)
5 Dime: GRIZZLIES (plus the points vs. Lakers)
Packers
Here’s what this play comes down to: After what you’ve seen the last two days in the NFL, are you willing to lay points with a team that needs to win to either enhance its playoff chances or save its season? Well, I’m not. Let’s review what happened on Saturday and Sunday:
The Cowboys were a 4½-point home favorite against the Ravens, with Dallas controlling its playoff destiny. Result: Cowboys lose 33-24.
The Steelers were a three-point road favorite at Tennessee, needing a win to basically wrap up home-field advantage in the AFC. Result: Steelers lose 31-14.
The Eagles were a 5½-point road favorite at Washington, with Philly controlling its playoff destiny. Result: Eagles lose 10-3.
The Vikings were a three-point home favorite against the Falcons, needing a win to clinch the NFC North title. Result: Vikings lose 24-17.
The Jets were a four-point road favorite at the lowly Seahawks, needing a win to maintain control of their destiny in the AFC East. Result: Jets lose 13-3.
The Broncos were a 6½-point home favorite against the slumping Bills, needing a win to wrap up the AFC West title. Result: Broncos lose 30-23.
Finally, the Buccaneers were a four-point home favorite against the Chargers, needing a win to keep their postseason hopes alive. Result: Bucs lose 41-24.
That’s right: An astounding seven teams with everything in the world for which to play suffered outright losses as a favorite! And while the Ravens, Titans, Falcons and Chargers also had a lot on the line in their respective games against the Cowboys, Steelers, Vikings and Bucs, the fact is the favorites failed to get the job done in each contest. In fact, favorites went 5-8 SU and 4-9 ATS on Sunday, and the only favorites that came through this week were the Colts (barely won at 5-9 Jacksonville on Thursday), Dolphins (barely won at 2-11 Kansas City), Patriots (routed Arizona in the snow) and Giants (needed a big rally and overtime to knock off Carolina at home).
All of which brings us back to tonight’s game. With the Vikings losing yesterday, the door was left open for the Bears to snatch away the NFC North championship if they can beat the Packers tonight and win at Houston next week and if Minnesota falls at the Giants. And frankly, I’m not convinced Chicago, which has been inconsistent all season, is ready to deal with that pressure. Don’t forget that the Bears, with their backs to the wall in terms of the playoffs, nearly blew that home game to the Saints 10 days ago.
Now, one thing I am convinced of: Green Bay absolutely WILL show up for this game. Yes, the Packers are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games, a nosedive that eliminated them from playoff contention. However, the last three losses were by margins of 4, 3 and 4 points, as Green Bay simply failed to hold leads against the Panthers, Texans and Jaguars. And prior to this drought, the Packers had covered in five straight games. Four of those spread-covers were as an underdog. The fifth? A 37-3 demolition of the Bears as a 3½-point home favorite back on Nov. 16. In that game – which also happens to be Green Bay’s only victory in the last seven weeks – the Packers had 427 total yards, Chicago had 234; the Packers had 200 rushing yards, Chicago had 83; the Packers had 24 first downs, Chicago had nine; and the Packers held the ball for 37½ minutes, Chicago had it for 22½ minutes.
Also, despite their recent struggles to cover pointspreads, the Packers are still 13-5-1 ATS in their last 19 games on the road, 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 as a road underdog, and they’ve cashed in all five of their NFC North games this season! As for the Bears, with last week’s lucky push against the Saints, they’re now just 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a home favorite and 2-3 ATS against division rivals this year. Oh, and one more thing: Green Bay is 7-2 ATS in its last nine trips to Soldier Field!
Simply put, I believe the Packers are far better than their 5-9 record, but just haven’t had any kind of fourth-quarter luck whatsoever, as six of their last seven defeats have come by four points or less. They also have not been able to stop the run on defense, allowing 138.2 rushing ypg. However, as noted above, they were able to stop Chicago in the first meeting. Also, tonight they catch a break in that Bears rookie RB Matt Forte (64 rushing yards in the loss at Green Bay) is questionable with an injury.
Bottom line: If I thought for a second that the Packers were going to lay down in this game, I wouldn’t touch ‘em with a 10-foot pole. But there’s no doubt in my mind that Green Bay will come to play and would love nothing more than to put a nail in their archrival’s season. And with the way the Packers thumped the Bears five weeks ago, and with the way NFL favorites have fared this week, I have to take the points.
Erin Rynning
Denver Nuggets
Brian Edwards
Green Bay at Chicago
Play: Chicago -4
I'm on my guaranteed play for the total a lot heavier (amount-wise) than this wager on the side. Nevertheless, I do recommend getting some action on the Bears, who have won five of their last six home games. Four of those wins have come by four points or more which is what we're laying here. Green Bay mailed it in weeks ago, so let's fade 'em in this spot.
Green Bay at Chicago
Play: Over 40
The 'over' has hit at a money-making 5-2 clip for Chicago in its home games. The 'over' has also been a money maker for the Packers, posting an 8-5-1 overall record and a 4-2-1 mark in their road games. The 'over' is 2-1 in the last three head-to-head meetings between these long-time rivals as they have combined for at least 40 points in all three of those games. Both teams are accustomed to the cold-weather conditions. Give me the 'over.'
Bob Balfe
Packers/Bears Under 40
Tonight's game is going to be bitter cold. Kickoff temperature is going to be around 3 degrees. Not fun! Chicago has injuries in their running game and I do not see them generating much offense tonight. The Packers are out of the playoffs and would love to spoil hopes for the Bears, but the Chicago defense is awesome and in these conditions I just do not see much offense from either team. This game will be won by who comes up with the big turnover. Look for a low scoring game. Take the Under.
College Football
No plays today.
NBA Basketball
Nets +5.5 over Rockets
NCAA Basketball
Western Michigan +8.5 over Southern Illinois
ATS Financial
3 Units Green Bay/Chicago OVER