ATS Financial Football
3 units Missouri
Brandon Lang
20-Dime 6-Point Teaser NC State/Missouri
FREE PICK - Northwestern/Missouri Over
Jeff Benton
15 DIME Missouri
5 DIME UConn
TOM STRYKER
100% BOWL WIRE-TO-WIRE ROAST
RUTGERS (-) over NC State
Lenny Del Genio
College Hoops BLOWOUT of the Week (2-0 Weekend)
Oklahoma St. -9.5
Oddsmaker Mismatch (15-8 Run)
Phoenix -8.5
Vegas Sports Experts
10* Take Missouri (-12.5) over Northwestern (NCAA Power Play)
Missouri
• 13-1 SU in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons
• 24-4 SU as a favorite over the last 3 seasons
• 10-3 SU when the total posted is between 63.5 and 70 points
Winning Angle
Play N.C. State (+6.5) over Rutgers*
(NCAA Top Guaranteed Winner)
N.C. State has won 7 consecutive games against the spread and they have also covered the spread in 4 consecutive games coming off a bye week. N.C. State has covered the spread in 9 of the last 11 games as an underdog and they have also covered the spread in 4 of the last 5 games coming off an OVER the total.
Play Missouri (-12.5) over Northwestern*
(Bonus NCAA Play)
Missouri has won 13 of the last 14 non-conference games and they have also won 24 of the last 28 games as a favorite. Missouri has won 10 of the last 13 games when the total posted is between 63.5 and 70 points and they are averaging over 43 points a game on offense this season.
HalfBets
Murray St +4.5 Game (2*)
Villanova +9.5 Game (2*)
UConn -6.5 Game (2*)
3G-Sports
NCAAF
NC State 5*
Missouri 4*
ATS LOCK
4 units NC St.
Hoops
4 units UConn
3 units Cal Santa Barb
Gold Medal Club
RUTGERS-6 (SUPER HUGE)
NIAGRA -4.5 (HUGE)
N.Colorado -4 (HUGE)
Davidson -4.5 (HUGE)
New Jersey Nets -5.5 ( REG)
Hurley
ROI: 1* Northwestern
Cajun-Sports CFB Executive
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL - LEGION FIELD, BIRMINGHAM, ALA.
5 STAR SELECTION
North Carolina State +6½ over Rutgers
Two hot teams meet up on Monday as the Scarlet Knights take on the Wolfpack. After a 2-6 start to the season, including a four-game losing skid, North Carolina State was left for dead. The team rallied behind one another and ripped off four consecutive wins to end the regular-season and earn its first bowl bid since 2005.
"We are honored to have been invited to compete in the Papajohns.com Bowl and feel that it is an excellent way to end an exciting season for NC State," said head coach Tom O'Brien. "Our football team has worked extremely hard to earn a chance to play in this game."
This is NC State's first bowl appearance under second-year coach O'Brien and its first since defeating South Florida in the 2005 Meineke Bowl. O’Brien has won his last 6 Bowl Games, all at Boston College, and the Wolfpack has won its last three bowl games.
Rutgers also had a huge turnaround this season and enters the postseason riding a six-game winning streak. With the late run, the Knights finished 7-5 during the regular-season and became just the seventh team in NCAA history to make a bowl game after starting out 1-5.
Rutgers has won each of its last two postseason appearances, including a 52-30 triumph over Ball Sate in last season's International Bowl.
North Carolina State’s offense got going late in the season and enters the postseason averaging nearly 24 ppg and 326 total ypg. The unit has averaged a modest 125 ypg on the ground, but has fared well in passing for 200 ypg. After winning the starting job, quarterback Russell Wilson excelled for NC State and earned ACC Rookie of the Year honors by throwing for 16 touchdowns against only ONE interception in 252 attempts. The redshirt freshman also earned First-Team All-ACC honors in 10 appearances and he has even proven dangerous with his legs, rushing for 342 yards and four more scores. Another weapon NC State will surely utilize is tailback Andre Brown, who can do a little bit of everything. Brown not only leads the team with 728 yards and six touchdowns on the ground, but he also ranks second on the club with 28 catches, to go with 305 receiving yards and two more scores.
NC State has been up and down on defense this season and it is currently allowing 26 ppg and 387 total ypg. The unit has shown vulnerability to both the pass and run, but has compensated for some of those yards by forcing 27 turnovers, including 17 interceptions. During the four-game winning streak to end the season, the Wolfpack defense gave up more than 20 points only once, in the finale against Miami. The extra time to heal will be critical, as the unit will have nearly everyone ready for a high-octane Rutgers passing attack.
You won't go long listening to NC State coach Tom O'Brien without realizing the Wolfpack overcame an onslaught of injuries to reach.500% and a bowl invitation.
The Wolfpack's four-game winning streak coincided with certain players returning from injuries. Among those is standout linebacker Nate Irving.
"I'm healthy and happy that I was able to (withstand) a couple of injuries," Irving said.
And many of the players should be in the best condition since prior to the season.
Thirteen injured starters missed time for N.C. State during the season, though the team's collective health improved dramatically by the final month. The results picked up as well.
"I think health has had a lot to do with our success," O'Brien said. "Our team didn't blink and nobody felt sorry for themselves. We're on a journey and this is a heck of a start."
Nine of the starters who missed regular-season games are fully cleared for the bowl game. Seven of those players missed three or more games, including Irving who missed three.
After a slow start to the season, Rutgers' offense also came alive in a big way down the stretch, averaging a healthy 46 ppg over its last five games of the regular-season. Quarterback Mike Teel played a big part in the team's success down the stretch, throwing for almost 2000 yards and 20 touchdowns in his last six games. Included in that run was a school-record 447-yard, seven-touchdown performance in the club's regular-season finale against Louisville. Teel is just 56 yards shy of breaking Ryan Hart's single-season school-record set in 2004.
Defensively, Rutgers has been on top of its game, holding foes to less than 19 ppg. The unit has really fared well against the pass, allowing only 184.9 ypg and nine touchdowns through the air, while notching 28 sacks. Against the run, the Knights have had a little trouble in giving up 139 ypg, but their biggest issues have been a lack of takeaways, forcing only 17 turnovers.
While Rutgers has won their last 2 Bowl Games under Schiano, Wolfpack head coach O'Brien comes into the Papajohns.com Bowl with a six-game bowl winning streak. He is proud of the practice routine and motivational strategies he has used to build that streak.
"He's a bowl coach," linebacker Nate Irving said. "He's been to a lot of bowls, and he knows how to win. He knows what he's doing. He told us that. We understand, and we believe in him."
Confidence is the most important factor for an underdog, which is one reason why we like to play ON a Christmas-New Year’s Eve underdog. For every over-confident favorite, there's usually a motivated, quality underdog.
North Carolina State should also benefit from having played a tougher schedule, as they were underdogs in EVERY lined game this season, which means along with a non-lined victory, they had to upset FIVE teams to become eligible for a Bowl Game. This is also why we like to play ON a Bowl team that played a tougher schedule during the regular season. They may be under-valued, while an opponent that racked up wins against in inferior schedule may be over-rated. While the ACC has been the subject of scorn throughout this season, they are 4-0 ATS so far this Bowl season.
The Wolfpack also qualify for one of our Bowl-exclusive POWER SYSTEM. The first one states:
Play ON a Bowl underdog of 8 points or less with 28-43 days rest off a SU win in its last game and an underdog SU win before that.
Since 1995, these teams are 11-0 ATS while blasting the spread by nearly 15 points per game on average.
We also note that teams used to pulling upsets have been solid sides to back in Bowl Games. Specifically, December Bowl team with 5 season underdog SU wins and 27+ days rest are 6-0 ATS since at least 1980, winning 5 of the 6 games outright.
Meanwhile, we also look to play AGAINST a big Bowl favorite that won its Bowl game last year. Teams tend to relax and lose their edge if they enjoyed a Bowl win the previous year. The bigger the win the previous Bowl game, whether by margin or meaningfulness, the harder it will be to capture that magic once again. Rutgers enjoyed an easy Bowl win last year and don’t figure to be nearly as hungry and motivated as this year’s foe.
This is supported by our SportsDataBase research that shows Big Bowl favorites having had a hard time covering the spread when satisfied with a previous Bowl victory. Specifically, it reads:
Play AGAINST a road/neutral site Bowl favorite of more than 6 points that won its last Bowl Game and not off 4 favorite SU wins vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU win & ATS loss.
Just since 2003 these teams are 0-20 ATS failing to cover the spread by 10 ppg on average. We’ve already got a win this Bowl Season, as Cal qualified and failed to cover the spread in their Emerald Bowl win over Miami, FL this past Saturday.
A couple of other POWER SYSTEMS that Rutgers qualifies for demonstrate that playing a “hot” favorite is usually a bad idea. One states:
From December 22nd on, play AGAINST a Bowl favorite of 1½-8½ points with less than 43 days rest off 3 SU wins and not an ATS loss of 8+ points in its last game vs. a non-Independent opponent not off a shutout SU win.
Just since 2004, these teams are a horrible 0-19 ATS, failing to cover the number by nearly 13 ppg on average.
Additionally, we have another one that tells us to:
Play AGAINST a Bowl favorite with less than 8 season SU wins and 20+ days rest off 3 SU wins.
Over the past 15 seasons, these teams have gone 0-14-1 ATS, while failing to cover the spread by nearly 15 ppg! The last 2 qualifying teams failed to cover the spread by more than 20 points each!
Finally, we usually look to play AGAINST a team that opened as a favorite a half-point lower than a “key number”, such as a 2', or 6'-point favorite, especially the 2'.
Three and seven are the top 2 key numbers in college football, meaning more games end with those 2 margins than any others. Oddsmakers try to use numbers a half-point below the keys against the player, hoping the bettor will think "oh, the favorite 'only' has to win by a TD (with the line at -6½) and still cover the spread." This can be a trap as the underdog will often cover easily and sometimes win outright. Here, the line did open at -6½ and has bounced around a bit.
We not only like the feisty NC State team to give the Scarlet Knights a game, we like the chances of O’Brien and the Wolfpack racking up another outright win with an upset victory.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: NORTH CAROLINA STATE 27 RUTGERS 23
VALERO ALAMO BOWL – ALAMODOME, SAN ANTONIO
3 STAR SELECTION
Northwestern +12½ over Missouri
The Tigers of the Big 12 Conference and the Wildcats of the Big Ten are set to collide in Monday night’s Bowl Game.
Missouri is appearing in a bowl game for the fourth straight year, as Gary Pinkel has done a tremendous job of resurrecting the program. The Tigers were expected to contend for a national title this season, and it certainly appeared that they would live up to the preseason hype after winning the first five games, including four blowouts. Unfortunately, they fell to Oklahoma State and Texas in back-to-back weeks and later lost to Kansas to close out the regular season with a 9-3 record. Missouri did earn a spot in the Big 12 title game by winning the rather weak North Division, but a meeting with powerhouse Oklahoma resulted in a 62-21 beating.
Northwestern earned a spot in this bowl game by also winning nine games during the regular season. The Wildcats are in the 3rd year under the guidance of head coach Pat Fitzgerald, who was a star linebacker for the school during his playing days.
"We're extremely proud of our football team, which enjoyed one of the best regular seasons in Northwestern history," said Fitzgerald upon learning of the Alamo Bowl bid.
The Wildcats haven't won a bowl game since 1949, so there is an obvious goal present for the players and coaches. They will certainly have their hands full here, as Missouri is loaded offensively
The Tigers are averaging 43 ppg and nearly 500 total ypg, impressive numbers by any standard. Quarterback Chase Daniel is the leader of the offense despite falling out of the Heisman race after a few shaky performances, Daniel still carries 37 touchdown passes into the Alamo Bowl, completing 74% of his passes for over 4,000 yards and is capable of making plays as a runner as well. Daniel is fortunate to have a pair of First-Team All-Americans to throw the ball to in Jeremy Maclin and Chase Coffman. Derrick Washington is the team's top tailback, as he has rushed for nearly 500 yards and 17 touchdowns.
On defense Missouri is yielding nearly 28 ppg and 414 total ypg, having faced some outstanding Big 12 offenses during the regular season. The stop unit has been mediocre at best down the stretch.
The Northwestern offense is averaging about 25 ppg and 357 total ypg. Standout tailback Tyrell Sutton will be healthy enough to place in this bowl game, which could very well have a huge impact on the outcome. Sutton, who has an injured wrist that caused him to miss time at the end of the regular season, has rushed for 776 yards and six touchdowns in only eight games. Quarterback C.J. Bacher is also healthy and has completed 60% of his attempts for over 2,000 yards with 14 TDs and 14 interceptions. He has also rushed for 263 yards and three scores, proof of his versatility.
Pat Fitzgerald was an All-American defender, and his aggressive mentality has certainly rubbed off on the players that he coaches. Northwestern is only allowing 19 ppg and 343 total ypg. The Wildcats are permitting only 3.6 rushing yards per carry and 128 rushing yards per game. The pass defense has been solid as well, yielding a mere 11 touchdowns this season. With 33 sacks to their credit, the Wildcats have done an outstanding job of pressuring the opposing quarterback.
All things being equal, Missouri is the better team here, but the 2 teams are likely to bring much different attitudes into this contest. Missouri finished the season in a very flat manner and can’t be too thrilled to be here. On the other hand, Northwestern is ready to go.
"Were just excited about the opportunity in front of us and we couldn’t be happier with where we are at this point, said WildCats QB Bacher of the Alamo Bowl berth.
The Tigers couldn't be coming to Texas with any less momentum, coming off consecutive losses at Kansas City’s Arrowhead Stadium; suffering deflating defeats to Kansas and Oklahoma by a combined score of 102-59.
There's no way to spin the Tigers' deficiencies on defense: They've absolutely regressed from last season, starting with its inabilities to rush the passer, cover downfield and create turnovers — a toxic combination for any defense, even one that returned 10 starters from a strong unit a year ago. Giving up 293 yards per game, Missouri ranks almost dead last nationally in pass defense and had little luck stopping teams on third down.
Meanwhile, Northwestern's pass rush against Missouri's offensive line might give the Wildcats their best chance at knocking off the Tigers. The Wildcats were effective on third down and in the red zone, ranking second among Big Ten defenses in both categories. Missouri's offensive line has held up against most opponents other than Texas, but blocking the Wildcats might not be easy.
"We haven't played up to our potential the last two games," said receiver and returner Jeremy Maclin. "With all of the stuff that is going around with coaches moving, players, seniors leaving…”
In other words, this team is having to deal with a lot of distractions.
Meanwhile, Northwestern’s players and coaches landed in San Antonio a few days ago wearing suits and ties. Pat Fitzgerald’s team dressed with a purpose in mind, he said.
"I think you can see by the way we’re dressed we’re here for business," Fitzgerald told reporters yesterday at the Hyatt Regency.
One of our favorite Bowl Handicapping Strategies is to play AGAINST a big Bowl favorite that won its Bowl game last year. Teams tend to relax and lose their edge if they enjoyed a Bowl win the previous year. The bigger the win the previous Bowl game, whether by margin or meaningfulness, the harder it will be to capture that magic once again. Last year, the Tigers routed Arkansas in the Cotton Bowl. Then it was the Razorbacks who were in disarray, but now it’s Missouri’s turn.
Our SportsDataBase research confirms that big Bowl favorites have had a hard time covering the spread when satisfied with a previous Bowl victory. It states:
Play AGAINST a road/neutral site Bowl favorite of more than 6 points that won its last Bowl Game and not off 4 favorite SU wins vs. an opponent not off a conference road favorite SU win & ATS loss.
Just since 2003, these teams are 0-20 ATS, failing to cover the spread by an average of nearly 10 points per game on average. This system went 4-0 last year alone and is already 1-0 this Bowl season with California failing to cover the spread against Miami, FL this past Saturday night in the Emerald Bowl.
Bowl favorites of more than 4 points with no more than 4 weeks rest have been unable to recover from a Conference Championship loss as an underdog or favorite of less than 20 points. Specifically, Bowl favorites of more than 4 points with less than 29 days rest off a Conference Championship SU loss (not as a favorite of 20+ points) are 0-8 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 13 ppg on average
The Wildcats will not be intimidated here, as they were 3-0 SU & ATS as an underdog away from home this season, while the Tigers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games away from home and not favored by 28+ points.
At the right price, Big 10 Bowl teams have dominated Big 12 opponents under the conditions described in another Bowl POWER SYSTEM. This one reads:
Play ON a Big 10 Bowl team (not a favorite of 10+ points or underdog of more than 14 points) with less than 43 days rest vs. a Big 12 opponent not off a conference road favorite SU win & ATS win of more than 6 points.
Since at least 1980 (and perhaps even beyond that) these Big 10 teams have been perfect ATS, covering 16 straight qualifying games.
We expect a great effort from Northwestern who will keep themselves in this game, even against the potent Missouri offense. Look for the Tigers to make enough mistakes to help the WildCats cause. Ultimately, this game will likely be decided late, allowing the underdogs to at least cover this big number, if not win the game outright.
PROJECTED FINAL SCORE: MISSOURI 31 NORTHWESTERN 27
Seabass
100* Missouri
30* NC State
Bob Balfe
College Football
NC State/Rutgers Under 57
Both teams had an awful start to this season, but a 4 game NC State win streak and a 6 game Rutgers win streak got them into the bowl season. Both offenses have been performing well, but its the defense that has been really impressive over the 2nd half of the year. I think the long layoff will make this a slow start. This total is set very high. Look for a close game with Rutgers winning at the end. Take the Under.
NorthWestern +12.5 over Missouri
The Wildcats will have their star runningback Sutton back in the lineup and their offense is too good to be getting this many points. Missouri has to still be sick from the way they lost to Oklahoma in the BIG 12 Championship Game and you have to wonder if they will be excited much to be playing in just the Alamo Bowl. The betting public is all over the Tigers. I don't think they have a good enough defense to put Northwestern away. Take the points with Northwestern.
NBA Basketball
Thunder +9.5 over Suns
NCAA Basketball
Temple +8.5 over Villanova