Michael Cannon Monday Picks:
15 Dime –
SAINTS
Take the Saints as the home chalk over the Titans tonight.
I know all the ATS trends point towards the Titans, but for me this game tonight goes far beyond that.
This is the Saints home opener and you can bet your last dollar that the Superdome is going to be rocking, just like it was when the Saints returned there last year for the first game since Hurricane Katrina.
New Orleans is in desperation mode, as they can ill-afford to fall to 0-3 if they want to have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs.
I’m willing to write off their first two losses as unfavorable matchups for them. Both Indianapolis and Tampa Bay employ the Cover Two scheme on defense, which is what the Saints have trouble against.
The Titans don’t play that on defense, as they like to get to the passer by blitzing. All that’s going to do is let Drew Brees get the ball to his playmakers, Reggie Bush, Marques Colston and the rest of the Saints skill players.
On defense the Saints Achilles heel is their secondary, particularly against the deep pass. Since the Titans love to pound the ball on the ground, this plays right into what the Saints want them to do.
Trust me, New Orleans knows that Vince Young is not a polished passer yet, so they would be well advised to stay in their zones and make him check down to an underneath receiver. That way they can avoid two bad things from happening; Young scrambling and running into a broken field and Young launching the deep pass.
Since New Orleans has their backs against the wall, I expect them to come out and land the first blow of the game, to get the Titans on their heels a little bit. If all is going well, the Saints will get a few quick scores in succession which will force Young to beat them with his arm.
Tennessee is just 2-7 ATS as a Monday night dog while New Orleans is 7-2 ATS as a chalk in games off back-to-back losses.
Lay the points with the Saints as they grab the home win and cover.
5 Dime –
ROYALS (With Meche and Cabrera as listed pitchers)
Take the Royals as the small road chalk tonight over the Orioles.
Gil Meche will start for Kansas City and he’s thrown five consecutive quality starts and has six quality starts in his past seven. The right-hander is 2-0 over his last three starts with a 2.29 ERA.
The Orioles will counter with Daniel Cabrera and he’s tanked it along with his teammates as the season winds down. He’s lost four straight starts and has a 9.47 ERA over that span.
Sorry, but I like the Royals in this spot on the road and I like them even as a road chalk.
Take Kansas City for the win over Baltimore.
Vegas Vic
Titans (+4) over SAINTS
As we mentioned last week, Tennessee is a money machine. The Titans are 2-0 against the spread this season and have covered 13 of their last 16. This is also the first Monday-night appearance for the multitalented Vince Young, and while he might not have the same results as when his Longhorns beat Reggie Bush and Southern California for the national championship, another cover is only 60 minutes away.
Mike Rose
New Orleans Saints -4.0 (-110)
Mon Sep 24 '07 8:30p
If you asked the average NFL fan what they thought the New Orleans Saints record would be heading into their Week 3 MNF match-up with the Tennessee Titans, they’d probably say 1-1. Figuring a loss at Indianapolis to open up the season, but bouncing back nicely in Week 2 at division rival Tampa. That however is not the case as the Saints did lose to Peyton and the Colts in an embarrassing fashion Week 1, but they came back and laid an absolute egg as 5-point road chalks to Tampa last week. I’m not sure what team took the field last week, but it certainly wasn’t the one that saw their season end in the NFC Championship game to Chicago last year.
This is where it gets interesting though. Now they’re back home for the first time this season taking on a Tennessee team that gave Indy all it could handle last week at home, and everyone and their mother seems to be enamored with the visitor. People just get too caught up with the here and now, and forget that this is a very long season. It’s all about what have you done for me lately, and this is when many a sports bettor gets killed.
I’m going to simply lay it all on the line here and state that there’s no way New Orleans loses this game, and I actually foresee them running away with this one. Now that they’re back in the comfy confines of the SuperDome with all their fans, the real New Orleans offense is going to explode. This group is pretty much back intact, if not better than a year ago, and this is the perfect setting for them to introduce themselves to the 2007-08 season. Don’t let last weeks defensive effort against Indianapolis fool you, the Titans are far from a dominating group, and playing on the fast track of the Superdome is going to expose them for what they truly are. A run of the mill stop unit that’s very young, and it will be taken advantage of by the likes of Brees, Bush, and Colston.
It’s quite possible that this line comes all the way down to a FG before kick-off. Let everyone expecting the Saints to roll over and die once again continue to buy it down, and then go for the kill and a solid winner in what should be a dominating effort from the home team.
Daniel Perkins ATS Advice Front Runner:
San Diego(85-69) @ San Francisco(68-87)
10:15pm EST
Line: Away -133
The Padres were inline to win the wild card race at worst going into Friday's game in Colorado. Since then they have lost 3 in a row and are 2 1/2 games back of Arizona and only a 1/2 game up on Philadelphia for the wild card spot. The Padres are playing each of their final 7 games on the road in do or die situations. Tonight they open the series in San Francisco and send All Star pitcher Chris Young to the mound. Since going on the DL Young has lost 6 of his last 8 decisions and had an ERA over 4.50. This season his ERA is still below 3 and has been lights out at night with a 2.11 ERA. In a big pressure situation Young will come with all his stuff. You will see the Chris Young who had an ERA under 1.90 and went into the 8th inning after throwing only 80 pitches start after start earlier in the season tonight.
The Padres have won the previous 8 straight games when playing the Giants. Watch for a big performance from Chris Young in a low scoring win for the Padres who are fighting for their playoff lives tonight.
Pick: San Diego -133
Daniel Perkins ATS Advice Professional Play.
Tennessee(1-1) @ New Orleans(0-2)
8:30pm EST
Line: O/U 45
The New Orleans Saints come into this game in what is literally a must win situation. Tennessee is playing very good offensively with Vince Young leading the pack. Vince is making plays happen left, right and centre. The Titans almost managed to pull a win off the Colts last week but were stopped 15 yards shot of field goal range. New Orleans defense is giving up lots of points this season. The defense gave up 41 to Indianapolis and 31 to Tampa Bay. The Saints defense ranks in the bottom 10 for each category, ( total yards, passing, rushing, points allowed with 36.5). Tennessee's offense has been rolling along this season, New Orleans is going to have a hard time stopping the dual rushing attack of Vince Young and Chris Brown who just happen to lead the league with 211.5 yards per game. The key for The Saints is going to be establish the run. They have 2 of the best backs in the league between Reggie Bush and Deuce McAllister yet they are ranked 20th with only 102.5 yards per game. Drew Brees will need time to find open receivers, by establishing the run he will be able to work play action into each series. This will give him the misdirection and time he needs to complete the passes. This will work great against the Titans secondary which is giving up over 250 yards per game in the air. Two weak defences meet tonight on one side of the ball and two offense that could easy finish the year in the top 5 meet on the other side. The Saints will finally get rolling at home and score at least 25 points. The Titans will continue their success of running and gunning' tonight and should have no problem matching New Orleans the entire game. Play the Over tonight.
Pick: Over 45
Marc Lawrence -
3* New Orleans -4 Vs Tennessee
Doc's Sports -
4 NO Saints -4.5
PointWise Sports - 7-0 yesterday
Rating:2*
Tennessee 23 New Orleans 20
Dr. Bob -
Tennessee (+3 1/2)
Winning Points
*New Orleans over Tennessee by 2
The Titans upset Jacksonville on the road and nearly upset the Colts, while
the winless Saints have been outscored, 72-24.The due factor may kick in
for the Saints, playing in their home opener, but keep in mind they were
just 1-5 ATS as a home favorite last season. Reggie Bush is off to a slow
beginning, rushing for just 65 yards on 22 carries and averaging just 25
yards receiving.The Titans don’t get a lot of respect.All they’ve done is win
seven of their past nine and cover 12 of their past 14 games.
NEW ORLEANS 26-24.
The Sports Reporter
NEW ORLEANS over TENNESSEE by 9
Is Saints’ quarterback Drew Brees starring in a re-make of “The Man Who Fell to Earth?” That
much was suggested here last week, and do we not regret following through on that after all
the evidence was on the table?: Bad game against the Cover-2 on opening night, too big a
Turnover Ratio change for the Saints from ’05 to ’06, and public infatuation with Reggie Bush,
a player who wastes energy trying to take it to the house on every run. Unless the Titans suddenly
change their defensive style, Brees and his 0-2 SU home team lucks out here with lots
of pressure and man coverage against him, and a supporting cast of offensive players
designed to combat it rather effectively. Tennessee’s offensive strategy of pounding the rock
becomes less effective because the Saints will accept that to a degree while it shields their
secondary from being burned by the terrifying torch most quarterbacks hold against it. Vince
Young’s torch isn’t fully fueled anyway.
NEW ORLEANS, 26-17
Brandon Lang
25 DIME
Tennessee Titans
5 DIME
Titans/Saints OVER
Game Plan
Tennessee
Prefered Picks
3* New Orleans
Spylock
3* Tennessee
Karl Garrett
Both of the Saints games this season have gone OVER the total, and that is with New Orleans contributing a lowly 24 points thus far.
Tennessee has played UNDER in both of their games this year, but they did go OVER the total in 13 of 16 last season, and it is only a matter of time before the Titans light up the scoreboard.
It is gonna happen tonight as New Orleans will be desperate to get some offense rolling before heading to their bye week.
The Titans also have a bye on-deck, so expect both of these teams to leave it all on the field tonight in what figures to be an entertaining up-and-down the field contest.
I like the points to add up, and for the OVER to be in the bag by the end of the third quarter.
4♦ OVER
Chad Jordan
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TWO MILLION DOLLAR LOCK
TENNESSEE TITANS +4