Monday Service Picks and Consensus Reports

WINNING POINTS

New Orleans over *Atlanta by 3 (Monday)

It's probably no surprise Atlanta has gone under in 15 of its last 21 considering
the Falcons have put up 15 touchdowns this season. That was one
fewer touchdown than Randy Moss had scored going into his Monday
matchup against Baltimore. The Falcons haven?t scored more than two
touchdowns in a game all season.They?re down to their third-string offensive
left tackle.They also may be turning to third-string quarterback Chris
Redman. He certainly can?t be worse than Joey Harrington and Byron
Leftwich.The Saints have covered three of the last four in Atlanta and desperately
need this game to keep their flickering playoff hopes alive. NEW
ORLEANS 23-20.

Sports Reporter

NEW ORLEANS over *ATLANTA by 7
There's a good chance that the Falcons may start Chris Redman at QB this week. After another underwhelming effort from Joey Harrington, and apparently loathe to go back to Byron Leftwich, the former Louisville star ? drafted way back in 2000 ? may receive his first start since 2002. It might not be the worst thing in the world, as Redman was able to direct the Falcons to two scoring drives after entering last week?s game, and showed good rapport with Alge Crumpler and Roddy White. New Orleans once again failed to capitalize on an opportunity,dropping a winnable game at home to division leader Tampa Bay and falling behind the crowd in the NFC wild card chase. If they want any chance at all of making the playoffs, they
need to win out. NEW ORLEANS 28-21.

Pointwise

New Orleans 31 - ATLANTA 20 - (8:30 - ESPN) -- Rematch of LY's Monday
Night match, when the Saints won 23-3, in their first game in the Superdome,
after Katrina. Altho NewOrleans went down to the Bucs LW, note Brees a nice
5/1 over the past couple of weeks, which bodes well here. The Saints covered
their last RG by 23 pts, & the visitor is 27-10 ATS in their regular season games
of late. Falcons in off throwing 58 times (Harrington & Redman), & averaging
6.2 ypr, but Atlanta is just 4-15 ATS at home off allowing at least 28 pts, while
Saints are 21-4 ATS on the division road, & 7-1 away in Dec vs losing teams

MARC LAWRENCE

PLAYBOOK

Monday, December 10th

New Orleans over ATLANTA by 4

Poor play selection late in the game dearly cost the Saints when
they turned a victory into a loss last week. They?ll hope to rebound
tonight against the division doormat they beat in an ?inside-out?
win two months ago. Both teams struggle under the Monday Night
lights (Saints 1-8 SU & 2-7 ATS last nine, including 0-4 SUATS away;
Falcons 4-15 ATS since 1981), but Atlanta has rebounded recently,
winning and covering three of their last fi ve appearances. Monday
night division home dogs with revenge had been long-term money
earners, but are just 2-11 ATS of late.

Mike Rose

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons u43.5 (-110)
Mon Dec 10 '07 8:30p

It’s Monday again, and since we had a good game last week between New England and Baltimore, it’s safe to say this will be of the snoozer variety like so many have this season on Monday night. The NFC South battle finds the (5-7) New Orleans Saints taking on the (3-9) Atlanta Falcons in a match-up that looked much better on paper before the season actually started.

New Orleans has been a major disappointment this season. It all started back on September 6th when they opened up their 2007-08 season at Indianapolis with a deflating loss at the hands of the defending champs. They then went on to lose their next three games before picking up their first win of the season at Seattle in mid October. They rattled off three more wins after that, but then inexplicably dropped back-to-back games to St. Louis and Houston. The Saints found themselves with an excellent opportunity to get back into the NFC South race last week when they hosted the division leading Tampa bay Buccaneers. The Saints held a one-point lead at the half, but then got outscored by five in the second half en route to the 27-23 home loss. RB Reggie Bush suffered ligament damage in his knee that could keep him out for the rest of the season.

As for Atlanta, this season started off on the wrong foot when former QB Michael Vick got nailed in a dog fighting scandal. This immediately put new HC Bobby Petrino’s offense behind the proverbial 8-ball, and the team has suffered on a weekly basis. The Falcons come into this game losers of three in a row, and six of their last eight overall. Inconsistency at the QB position has seen their offense only muster 14 PPG, and that number has dropped to 12 PPG over the L/3 weeks.

I'm expecting this to be a low scoring game much like these clubs first match-up of the year when the Saints won by a 22-16 final count in New Orleans. The 'Under' is 6-2 ATS the L/8 meetings, while the 'Under' has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS the L/4 times the Falcons were installed as underdogs between 3.5-10 points. It's also cashed 8 of the L/10 times the Falcons played within their division. As for the Saints, the 'Under' is 3-2 ATS off a SU loss this season, but a solid 10-3 ATS after allowing their opponent to rip them apart through the air (250+) the week before.

With QB Chris Redman leading the Falcons attack and the Saints without another key cog on offense (RB Bush), I expect to see a lot more FG's than TDs in this spot, so hit the lowside of the 'Total' for another MNF winner!!!

Vegas Experts

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
Monday, December 10th, 8:30 PM ET

Atlanta has given up 31 points in each of its prime time appearances. Those were losses to the Giants and Colts so to have any hope here it needs to tighten up on the defensive end and play a ball control game. ATLANTA is 14-5 UNDER in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons and 8-0 UNDER in home games after having lost 3 out of their last 4 games over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans wants only to escape with a win and with Reggie Bush injured will have to play a more careful and methodical game.

Play on: Under

Brandon Lang

New Orleans (-3') at ATLANTA

Play the Over in tonight's Saints/Falcons contest, as these two teams will go back to the traditional ways they used to play - and that was in high-flying action.

First off, with Reggie Bush headed to Birmingham to have more MRI take place because of that PCL injury, the one way these Saints must keep the focus on the potential playoff berth is to fly the friendly skies - that being taking the action to the air.

In the first meeting Drew Brees completed 22-of-34 passes for 219 yards and two touchdowns. But with Bush balancing out the act, Brees and his receivers flew coach that night. In the national spotlight, and on the heels of the Bucs and Panthers losing, he'll be flying first class tonight, looking to gain ground in the NFC South.

With Atlanta, in that Oct. 21 clash, both Byron Leftwich and Joey Harrington combined to complete 27 passes for 273 yards. Though both have alternated stints as the starter, Chris Redman might be under center; and with the team riding a three-game skid, whomever is calling the signals will be looking to prove himself with as fiery a performance as we're going to see from Brees.

Look for a showdown in this one (if you want the winner - you know who to come to for the side in this game), as we play the total Over.

OVER

Michael Cannon

New Orleans at ATLANTA (+3')

Take the under tonight in the Monday Night matchup between the Saints and Falcons.

The Saints will be without perhaps their biggest weapon in Reggie Bush while the Falcons will start third-string quarterback Chris Redman.

What that means is probably not a whole lot of offense on either side.

The Falcons have put up only 15 touchdowns this year and they've played under in 15 of their last 21 games.

Take the under as that trend continues tonight in Atlanta.

4* UNDER

Karl Garrett

New Orleans at ATLANTA (+3')

The G-Man has hit 10 of his last 16 comp releases, and tonight I like the OVER in the Saints-Falcons game.

I know Reggie Bush is sitting this one out, and I know Chris Redman will get his first start, but with both of these teams pretty much resigned to playing out the string, I expect we will see a game that will feature some big plays.

Atlanta has allowed 90-points over their last 3 games, and you just know that Sean Payton will come up with a gadget play or two in the absence of Reggie Bush.

New Orleans has been able to score 29-points or more in 4 of their last 6 games, and I fgure they are still good for that many points, even with Aaron Stecker filling in for the injured Bush.

The first meeting this year did stay UNDER the posted total, as have the last 3 in this series, but with nothing to lose for either side, expect some points on the scoreboard tonight, and this game to go OVER the posted price.

1* OVER

Burns NFL

FALCONS (+3 or better)

Game: New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Time: 12/10/2007 8:30:00 PM Prediction: Atlanta Falcons Reason: I'm taking the points with ATLANTA. I successfully played against the Saints in the Opening Night loss to the Colts, stating that I felt they would be "over-valued" against the spread this season. That has proven to be the case as they've managed to go just 4-8 ATS for the season, including a 1-6 ATS mark in their "dome" games. Most will argue that this is a bigger game for the Saints, as they are still alive for the Wild Card race. However, I expect the Falcons to be AT LEAST as hungry. In fact, this is arguably Atlanta's biggest game on the schedule. They aren't going to the playoffs and the season was a disaster before it even started. This is their chance to play spoiler against a team which hurt them last season and a chance to win one in front of a national audience, showing the world that they aren't as bad as everyone believes them to be. While this is the Falcons' "Superbowl," last week was the "Big Game" for the Saints as they were head to head vs. the Bucs. Despite getting badly outgained (466-266!), the Saints had a chance to win that game but had their hearts broken in the games final seconds. Coach Payton had this to say: "That's a disappointing loss and probably the worst job I've done as head coach since we've been here. Obviously, I regret the play call. It cost us the game." Off that devastating defeat, I don't feel this banged-up unit is in the right state of mind to be laying points on the road. Note that the Saints are a dismal 2-7 ATS since 2005 when coming off a loss vs. a division rival. The Falcons, 5-2-1 ATS their last eight December home games, are expected to go with Redman at quarterback. That should be a positive as he was impressive in relief of Harrington last week, going 16-of-24 for 172 yards and two touchdowns before giving up a late interception. Still, he moved the ball effectively and rallied the team from a 21-3 deficit to make the game competitive. The Falcons got explosive running back Jerious Norwood back last time out and he gained 94 yards on just eight carries. They also got receiver Joe Horn back and you know he'll be wanting to play well vs. his former team. Roddy White, the team's leading receiver, comes off a career game as he caught 10 passes for 146 yards and a touchdown. The Falcons had a 16-14 fourth quarter lead when these teams faced each other at New Orleans two months ago. Reggie Bush, who won't play tonight, eventually scored the winning touchdown for the Saints in that game but the Falcons still managed to cover the spread. Look for the Falcons to avenge that loss tonight, dropping the Saints to 6-14 ATS the last 20 times they were laying points. *Monday Night GOY

Big Al

Reason: At 8:30 pm, our member selection is on the Atlanta Falcons plus the points over New Orleans, as Monday Night home dogs are a super 67% ATS since 1980 vs. teams off a straight-up loss as a favorite. Last week, New Orleans was upset 27-23 by Tampa Bay, and the Saints were favored by 5.5 points in that game. Look for Mark Redman, Aaron Stecker & Co. to lead Atlanta to the win tonight. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie.

North Star Sports...NO/ATL Over 43

Pointwise NO 31 Atl 20
Pointwise Phone *2* NO

ATS Lock Club

*3 Units..Saints -3.5

King Creole

Mon, 12/10/07 - 8:30 PMKing Creole | NFL Total
double-dime bet ATL / NOS Over 43.0

Analysis: 8:30pm ET / NEW ORLEANS SAINTS @ ATLANTA FALCONS
2** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL

Whenever the Saints take to the road in the role of FAVORITE, they've delivered solid OVER Results (9-2 O/U last 11 as road favs since 2002). The exact opposite holds true for the Falcons. Atlanta is 8-1 O/U since 2005 whenver installed as home Underdogs. That's a good start for tonight's handicapping, but we can do much better when we query applicable Systems and Situations in regards to tonight's game.

The first thing I looked at is the OU results so far this year for teams like ATLANTA who are off 3 straight losses in a row. And the numbers are godd for our OVER. So far in 2007, NFL teams off BBB SU and ATS losses in a row are 23-11 O/U (68%). When the OU line is grater than (>) 42 points (like tonight), the results improve to 11-3 O/U (79%). And UNDERDOGS in this situation (like the FALCONS) are a PERFECT 8-0 O/U since the beginning of October.

On the Saints side, I ran a query based on their losing last week as a home favorite against the Tampa Bay Bucs. Since the 2001 season, DECEMBER division favorites who are playing off a SU home favorite loss (SAINTS) are 8-1 O/U.

New Orleans is also playing in their 3rd STRAIGHT division game, as they played the Bucs and Panthers in each of the last 2 weeks. In a hot very RECENT System, we note that since the beginning of November.... NFL teams playing in their third STRAIGHT division game (SAINTS) are a PERFECT 5-0 O/U.

I also like checking teams who are currently on an OU 'streak'. That's certainly the case for the Falcons, who have gone OVER the Total in each of their last 3 games. In the last 12 months of NFL action, home underdogs who have gone OVER the total in their last 3 games (FALCONS) have gone 9-3-1 O/U. In just the 2007 season alone, these teams have gone a profitable 3-1-1 O/U.

In an 'offshoot', I also queried how teams perform who allowed a LOT of points in each of their last three games. Atlanta has given up 28, 31, and 31 points in thier last 3 (vs St Louis, Indianapolis, and Tampa Bay). Check out the eye-opening OU results: Since the 2002 season, division UNDERDOGS who allowed 28 or more points in EACH of their last three games (FALCONS) have gone a PERFECT 8-0 O/U!