Norm Hitzges
NFL
Double Play
Pittsburgh -9 vs Baltimore
Under
Gold Sheet
*PITTSBURGH 24 - Baltimore 20--QB Steve McNair (groin, back) and CB Chris McAlister (knee) are both expected to return for Baltimore. Both have lost something since their prime. However, bye week should help them stay within relatively roomy number, as Ben Roethlisberger was plenty bothered (4 sacks, 2 ints., 1 fumble) by the Denver pressure two weeks ago. And Baltimore (4 straight covers in series) can bring plenty of heat, as well. Steelers "over" 36-10-1 as host (but 1-2 TY). CABLE TV--ESPN
(06-BALT. 27-Pitt 0...B.19-17 B.35/114 P.11/21 B.21/27/0/161 P.22/42/2/151 B.0 P.1)
(06-Balt. 31-PITT 7...B.23-16 B.33/103 P.18/63 B.21/31/2/256 P.19/42/2/188 B.1 P.1)
(06-BALTIMORE -3 27-0, Baltimore +3' 31-7...SR: Pittsburgh 14-9)
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
Baltimore and Pittsburgh on Monday Night
Baltimore is 1-3 straight-up and 2-2 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football;
3-1 straight-up and 3-1 vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football.
Pittsburgh is 20-5 straight-up and 18-7 vs. the spread at home on Monday Night Football;
13-17 straight-up and 15-14-1 vs. the spread on the road on Monday Night Football.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-07)
Favorites vs. Pointspread
Favored by 1-6½ points Won 86, Lost 89, Tied 4
Favored by 7 points or more Won 33, Lost 26, Tied 2
Total Favorites Won 119, Lost 115, Tied 6
Home Teams vs. Pointspreads
Home Team Favorite Won 84, Lost 85, Tied 6
Home Team Underdog Won 30, Lost 34
Home Team at Pick Won 1, Lost 0
Total Home Team Won 115, Lost 119, Tied 6
Cappers Access
Sport Favorite Underdog Pick
(Mon-Night) Ravens
Friends of Mike Lee
6% Baltimore
cto
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10 BALTIMORE over *Pittsburgh
Late Score Forecast:
BALTIMORE 23 - *Pittsburgh 19
Andy Iskoe:
Balt
Marc Lawrence
BALT +9 (upset special)
Docs Sports
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4 Unit Play. #131 Take Baltimore +9 over Pittsburgh (Monday 8:30 pm ESPN) Both teams still win games via their defense and this is way too many points to be laying with a run first offense in Pittsburgh. This visitor has owned this series of late going 10-5 in the last 16 meetings (one tie). The Ravens won in Pittsburgh last year, 31-7, and expect a solid effort from them on Monday. Baltimore needs this game more and thus will sneak out a victory in a low scoring game. Baltimore 19, Pittsburgh 17.
Pointwise Phone Plays
2* Monday Night Pittsburgh
Selective Sports Systems = Pitt Over 36 for 10 units
Brandon Lang
MONDAY
25 DIME
STEELERS
Free Pick - Ravens/Steelers OVER - (For analysis see Daily video)
Gamblers world Tip Of the Day
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TIP OF THE DAY
Sport: NFL
Game: 8:30pm, Steelers, Ravens battle in defensive Monday Nighter
Prediction: Pittsburgh Steelers
Current Line: -110
Over/Under: -7.5
Reason: Baltimore can't cover a spread to their lives. Pittsburgh can't
help but covering spreads at home. But is the total the better play in Week
9 when these defensive division rivals clash? The Ravens have covered four
straight meetings, but the Steelers are OVER machines at home (16-6 past
22).
Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as 7½-point favorites versus
the Ravens, while the game's total is sitting at 37.
The Ravens lost to Buffalo 19-14 as a 3-point favorite in Week 7. The
combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (33.5).
Kyle Boller completed 21-of-36 passes for 191 yards with a touchdown for
Baltimore and Willis McGahee rushed for 114 yards and a touchdown on 19
carries.
The Steelers defeated Cincinnati 24-13 as a 4-point favorite in Week 8. The
combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (48).
Ben Roethlisberger threw for 230 yards with two touchdowns for Pittsburgh,
while Hines Ward caught eight passes for 88 yards and two touchdowns.
Team records:
Baltimore: 4-3 SU, 1-6 ATS
Pittsburgh: 5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS
Baltimore most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 5-5
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in November are 6-4
When playing on grass are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 6-4
When playing within the division are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Baltimore is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Pittsburgh is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Next up:
Baltimore home to Cincinnati, Sunday, November 11
Pittsburgh home to Cleveland, Sunday, November 11
Dave Malinksy
2 selections
5* BALTIMORE over PITTSBURGH
5* BALTIMORE/PITTSBURGH Over the total
It is rare that we put two plays together in the same game, but when extreme value presents itself we do not hesitate to do it. The key here is that making both plays is a key part of the equation. So we use this part of the page to tell the tale.
This line is wrong, very wrong, based on tonight?s lineups. Had these two teams met here on week #1 we would have projected the Steelers at -3, and in truth not all that much has happened to increase the spread by nearly a full touchdown. A win tonight and these two are tied atop the AFC North standings, after all. And as for historical perspective, the Ravens have lost one game by more than 10 points the past two seasons. In their last four meetings vs. the Steelers they are 3-1, with the only loss coming by a single point, and in the last five seasons they are 5-0 SU and ATS off of their bye week, with four of the wins coming in double figures.
So where does the line come from? Partially from the Steelers being over-rated. They have built their 5-2 record by facing one of the league?s weakest schedules, with only Cleveland currently sporting a winning record. But the Browns that they faced were the Charlie Frye edition, not the current Derek Anderson model. There has also been some downgrading of the Ravens, who have stumbled and wheezed to their 4-3 record, but there needs to be an * next to many of those games, which also provides a key starting point in terms of going forward tonight.
The Baltimore offense has struggled, which is what is going to happen to any attack that is playing without their starting QB, top receiver, and both starting OT?s. That has been the case for much of the current campaign, but Steve McNair, Todd Heap, Jonathan Ogden and Adam Terry are all back in the starting lineup for the first time since the opening week of the season. That means a chance to get back to playing their brand of football again, and causing the same problems that they caused the Steelers LY ? in rolling up 58 points in the 2-0 sweep McNair was 39-55 for 470 yards and four touchdowns, with 11 of those passes caught by Heap. They did an outstanding job of negating the Steeler blitz packages, and if anything they match up even better this time ? Willis McGahee is a much better runner on the corners than Jamal Lewis was, and with the Steelers missing DE Aaron Smith getting to the edge becomes even easier.
So let?s get back to that pointspread, and show how this sequence can best be worked. At +9.5 and 35.5 (the latter starting to show this morning), the oddsmakers are projecting a 22.5 ? 13 final score. That means our bottom line is if the Ravens can reach 13 points, we are guaranteed to win either the Side or the Total; there is no way to lose anything more than vigorish. That becomes an easy projection to make for an offense that is now healthy - Baltimore has been held to less than 13 points just one time the past two seasons, and never in that span with McNair at QB.
Should this game play Under the total, it is obviously difficult to lose the Raven side; for every point Under that it goes the +9.5 becomes bigger and bigger. Yet not only can we take advantage of the improper line by playing both ends of this game, we also build in a layer of protection ? if there is a genuine weakness for Baltimore tonight it is the absence of starting CB?s Chris McAlister and Samari Rolle. That can open the door for Ben Roethlisberger to make plays as he regains his chemistry with Hines War and Santonio Holmes.
The bottom line is that we will call for an aggressive Baltimore team to be in the hunt right to the final snap in this one, and for a reinvigorated offense to easily put more than enough on the board for us to cash both tickets. Here is the key from a * Rating standpoint. At +9.5 and 35.5 the Raven magic number is 13, in which case we play a 5* each way. If you can only find a +9 or a 36 the magic number goes to 14, and in that case we make it a 4* each way.
Vegas Sports Pics
NBA
Dallas Mavericks - 5* over Houston Rockets
NFL
Baltimore Ravens + 10 over (at) Pittsburgh Steelers
Pittsburgh (5-2) is 3-0 at home by a combined 84-19 over teams currently a combined 9-12. Struggling Baltimore's (4-3) bye week came at a good time expecting four starters to rejoin the lineup, including QB McNair (back) who has missed the last two games. McNair is 11-4 in 15 starts vs. Pittsburgh. Ravens went 13-3 last season, including 2-0 (SU & ATS) over Pittsburgh.
King Totals
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Ravens/Steelers over 36