Vegas Hotsheet - Seattle - 9.5
Pointwise Phones
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3* Seattle
Dr. Bob Sports
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Strong Opinion
San Francisco 16 SEATTLE (-10.0) 20
San Francisco is the 2nd worst team in the NFL, but the Niners aren't so bad that they can't cover as a double-digit dog against a sub-par Seattle team in a negative situation. Seattle has been solid defensively, allowing 5.1 yppl to teams that would combine to average 5.4 yppl against an average team, but the Seahawks have been 0.2 yppl below average on offense (5.3 yppl against teams that would allow 5.5 yppl to an average team) and they're even worse without WR Deion Branch in the lineup the last 3 games (5.4 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team). Branch will probably miss this game too, or not be 100% if he does play. What makes Branch important is that he's averaged 9.5 yards per pass thrown to him while the 3 other receivers taking his place combine to average just 5.9 yards per pass attempted. Branch had 36 passes thrown to him in 5 games and those 7.2 attempts are now resulting in 3.6 yards less per throw, which is 25.9 yards per game, 0.7 yards per pass play and 0.4 yppl which equates to about 2 points per game. My math model favors the Seahawks by 8½ points without Branch playing and by 10½ points if he is 100% healthy. The Niners apply to a very good 226-109-9 ATS contrary indicator while Seattle applies to a negative 33-89-1 ATS situation that is based on their bad defense last week. I should probably make the Niners a Best Bet based on the good technical support and a bit of line value, but I simply don't trust them enough. I will consider San Francisco a Strong Opinion in this game at +8 points or more.
North Star Sports Service
NFL - 11/12/2007 SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE Over 39.5
EZ Winners
1 Furman +23.5 at Clemson
1 Denver -7 over Cleve
Charlie Sports Game Of The Decade - 500* Seattle
VEGAS EXPERTS
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Monday, November 12th, 8:30 PM ET
Seahawks gave up a 21-6 lead at Cleveland and lost 33-30 so they'll be into defense and ball control in this one. That should work vs. the Niners who are averaging a league low 224 yards/game. That should be good for about 14 points and in truth the Niners hit their high water mark of 20 points in their first game of the season and haven't scored more than 17 since. Supporting angle says to Play Under in November games with a Home teams coming off a road contest where both teams scored 24 or more points, in November games. That angle has hit 84.6% (22-of-26) the last 5 seasons.
Play on: Under
GOLD SHEET
MONDAY, NOVEMBER 12
*SEATTLE 26 - San Francisco 10?Hard times for S.F., whose minimal
offense was shredded six weeks ago by the Seattle defense, which collected 6
sacks, 3 takeaways, and knocked QB Alex Smith from the game with a shoulder
separation. Moreover, 49er RB Frank Gore (ankle injury; DNP last week) has
been hemmed in most of the season. Seahawks (WR D.J. Hackett returned
last week; WR Engram 14 recs. at Cleveland) much more competent on
offense. Niners 1-5 vs. spread last 6 games; all as dog.
(07-Sea. 23-S. FRAN. 3...Se.17-9 Sf.19/109 Se.37/93 Se.23/32/1/278 Sf.12/34/2/75 Se.0 Sf.1)
(06-S. FRAN. 20-Sea. 14...Sf.18-15 Sf.34/262 Se.21/70 Se.19/31/3/233 Sf.19/25/0/154 Sf.1 Se.2)
(06-S. Fran. 24-SEA. 14...Se.22-15 Sf.38/228 Se.27/90 Se.20/37/2/210 Sf.14/25/0/162 Sf.0 Se.0)
(07-Seattle -2 23-3; 06-SAN FRAN. +3' 20-14, San Fran. +10 24-14...SR: Seattle 9-8)
HEAD-TO-HEAD MEETINGS SINCE 2006 (not necessarily Mon. night)
2007 Reg. Seas.: Seattle -2 beat San Francisco 23-3 at San Francisco
2006 Reg. Seas.: San Francisco +10 beat Seattle 24-14 at Seattle
2006 Reg. Seas.: San Francisco +3? beat Seattle 20-14 at San Francisco
MONDAY NIGHT HISTORY
San Francisco and Seattle on Monday Night
San Francisco is 16-13 straight-up and 19-10 vs. the pointspread on the road
on Monday Night Football; 20-10 straight-up and 19-8-3 vs. the pointspread
at home on Monday Night Football. Seattle is 11-5 straight-up and 11-4-1
vs. the pointspread at home on Monday Night Football; 4-3 straight-up and
4-3 vs. the pointspread on the road on Monday Night Football.
PERFORMANCE BREAKDOWN (1993-07)
Favorites vs. Pointspread
Favored by 1-6? points ...................... Won 86, Lost 90, Tied 4
Favored by 7 points or more .............. Won 33, Lost 26, Tied 2
Total ................................ Favorites Won 119, Lost 116, Tied 6
Home Teams vs. Pointspreads
Home Team Favorite .......................... Won 84, Lost 86, Tied 6
Home Team Underdog ................................... Won 30, Lost 34
Home Team at Pick ............................................ Won 1, Lost 0
Total ........................... Home Team Won 115, Lost 120, Tied 6
THE GOLD SHEET EXTRA
SAN FRANCISCO at SEATTLE (Monday, November 12)...49ers 1-5 vs. line
last 6, including 23-3 home loss to Seattle Sept. 30. Last 3 ?under? in series.
Tech edge-?Under? and Seahawks, based on ?totals? and team trends
Sports Gambling Hotline
Tonight we will grab the double-digits and look for the Kings to stay inside of the generous impost at Utah.
The Jazz have won 3 in a row, and 5 of their 7 games overall this young season, but Utah has not been able to get things going in the favored role, as Jerry Sloan's team is 2-4 when laying points this season.
Sacramento has won 2 of their last 3 games, and they have covered in all 3 of those contests. The Kings are in a rebuilding mode, but we think tonight's spot is just a little too roomy to lay.
The Kings have won and covered the last pair of series meetings, and they have won and covered 4 of the last 5 series meetings overall.
We don't expect Sacto to come through with the outright, but we do see them staying inside the number.
Play on the Kings.
1♦ SACRAMENTO
Sport Game and Time NSA's Selection
NFL San Francisco @ Seattle 8:30 PM EST 20* 49ers +10
NFL San Francisco @ Seattle 8:30 PM EST 10* UNDER 38
NBA Cleveland @ Denver 9:00 PM EST 20* Denver -6.5
NBA Sacramento @ Utah 9:00 PM EST 10* OVER 204
CBB New Mexico St @ Duke 7:00 PM EST 10* New Mexico St +17.5
CBB Siena @ Syracuse 7:00 PM EST 10* Siena +15.5
Kelso
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MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
10 Units
San Francisco 49ers (+9) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
Prediction: Seattle by 3-4
Starting Time: 8:35
TV: ESPN
Weather: 100% chance or light rain, with game-time temperatures in the mid-40s and winds out of the S-SW at 20 miles per hour
Marco D'Angelo | NFL Side Single-Dime Bet
233 SFX 10.0 (-110) Bodog vs 234 SEA
Analysis: Tonight San Francisco travels into Seattle on a 6 game losing streak. Seattle has lost 3 of their last 4. Last week's loss was a tough one as they missed a chip shot FG at the end of regulation only to lose in Overtime. Seattle already beat San Francisco in San Fran and it's hard to beat the same team twice in the same season. Look for San Fran to keep things close tonight in the rematch as Seattle has never been a trust worthy favorite. Take SAN FRANCISCO as MARCO'S NFL MONDAY NIGHT PLAY and make them a SINGLE DIME PLAY.
Marco D'Angelo | NBA Sides Single-Dime Bet
704 DEN -7.0 (-110) BetUS vs 703 CLE
Analysis: Denver is playing great ball right now as year 2 of Iverson & Carmello are paying dividends. This team has chemistry and will be a tough team to play all year. With so many offensive options they create match up problems for who ever they play. LeBron can't carry Cleveland against a team like this by himself. Also note DENVER is 10-1 ATS against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.Take DENVER as MARCO'S MONDAY NIGHT NBA POWER PLAY and make them a SINGLE DIME PLAY.
Brandon Lang
MONDAY
15 DIME
SAN FRANCISCO
5 DIME
Wisconsin Green Bay
Oregon
Free Pick - Niners-Seattle OVER - (For analysis see Daily video)
analysis by 3:00 pm Eastern
Michael Cannon
Monday's Plays...
5 Dime
49ERS
APPALACHIAN STATE
NUGGETS
Doc’s Sports
4 Unit Play. #718 Take Columbia -3 ½ over Delaware State (6:00 pm) The Lions continue to improve and this is the season they will make a run for the Ivy League Championship. They return five starters and have a dominating front court led by John Baumann, an All-Ivy League selection from 2007. The Hornets have been the team to beat MEAC, going 16-2 last year, but they have been hit hard by graduation losing four starters including their entire backcourt. Darrin Shine was the league’s best point guard and it will take a couple of game for this team to gel with new guards. The Lions pull away late to start the season with a big victory in Columbus.
3 Unit Play. #738 Take Florida State -16 over Georgia Southern (9:00 pm FSN) Tonight, this is clearly a case of David vs. Goliath, as the Seminoles playing at home will cruise to a victory. The Eagles fell below .500 in the Southern Conference last year finishing just 7-11. They also lost their leading scorer in Donte Gennie from last year and will not be able to replace his productivity. The Noles lost Al Thorton, but return the other four starters and should be able to win this game with much stronger guards. This game belongs to the Noles by 20-plus points.
Strike Point Sports
5-Unit Play. #741 Take Appalachian State +2 over Charlotte (7:30 pm)
Here's a case where you have one team that returns a lot of the puzzle from a very successful run in'06, and another program that will take steps back with a good portion graduated. The forward duo of Virginia transfer Donte Minter and Jeremy Clayton is arguably the SoCon's best. Just missing out on the NCAA Tournament last year, 20+ wins is again in Appalachian State's sight. They rose up last season beating the likes of VCU, Virginia and Vanderbilt; that's teams that combined for five Big Dance wins. However, the same can not be said for the 49ers of C-USA. Charlotte lost a great deal from 2006, and brings back just one player who averaged more than five points per game. Experience as well as talent is surely inferior compared to last season's team, and that will be well evident when an extremly confident Mountaineers team comes in and leaves with a nice victory to start the season.
Ferringo
4-Unit Play. Take #718 Columbia (-3.5) over Delaware State (6 p.m., Monday, Nov. 12)
After a disappointing opener against Fordham I think Columbia will amp up the defense against Delaware State. The Hornets are coming off an emotional one-point win on Saturday night against a Div. II school and now will be tipping off less than 48 hours later. I think this veteran Columbia team, with all five starters back from last year, and I think they are a bit more mature and capable of handling this neutral site game at Ohio State. DSU is 1-5 ATS over the past two years in lined games and Columbia is 5-2 ATS in its last seven lined games on a neutral court.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #741 Appalachian State (+3) over Charlotte (7:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 12)
I don't like the line movement on this game but I do like the matchup. App. State was one of - if not the - best mid-major in the country last year. They have brought back a strong nucleus from that team and are facing a Charlotte squad that is a bit in-flux. ASU finished last year on an 11-4 ATS run and are 24-6-1 ATS in Monday games (whatever that's worth). I think they get off on the right foot here.
1-Unit Play. First Half: Take #721 Siena (+8.5) over Syracuse (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 12)
1-Unit Play. Take #721 Siena (+15) over Syracuse (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 12)
The Orange will be shaking off the First Game Rust and breaking in a few new, talented freshman. Siena is an up-and-coming MAAC club that has covered two of its past three trips to the dome. Siena is 5-1 ATS against the Big East and 23-10 ATS on the road while Syracuse is just 8-20 ATS as a home favorite of 13.0 or higher and is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 nonconference games. I’m looking for the Orange to win by somewhere around 9-12 points.
Vegas Informer
2 Unit Play. #709 Take Over 152 New Mexico St at Duke (Monday 11/12 7:00 PM ESPN2)
Duke in their last game scored 121 points against NC Central but tonight Duke faces a tough New Mexico St. squad. If New Mexico St wants to stay in this game they will have to score with the Blue Devils. New Mexico St is 5-1 O/U as an underdog 13 points or more. Duke is 4-1 O/U in their last 5 home games.
4 Unit Play. #718 Take Columbia -3 ½ over Delaware St (Monday 11/12 6:00 PM)
Columbia in this spot has the better team on the floor and should have no problem with Delaware St. I always say that whoever controls the boards wins the game and Columbia should be able to do that. Delaware St is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. Columbia is 4-1 ATS as a favorite 6 points or less.