SPYLOCK
3 Star Tennessee Titans +2
ASA 4*
Tennessee (+2) over Denver Monday – 7:30 pm CST
Allan Boston
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Is On Okla. St +1 rather Large (College hoops tonight)
Burns NHL
WASHINGTON
Game: Florida Panthers vs. Washington Capitals Game Time: 11/19/2007 7:05:00 PM Prediction: Washington Capitals Reason: I'm laying the price with WASHINGTON. Tonight's over/under line is listed at 5.5. That's worth mentioning as we find the Panthers at a dismal 51-86 (-35.2) the last 137 times (1-10 L11!) they played a road game with an over/under line of 5.5. Conversely, during the same stretch, the Capitals have gone a profitable 82-59 when playing a home game with an over/under line of 5.5. The Capitals won 1-0 the last times that these teams faced each other here. Look for home ice to prove the difference once again as the Capitals avenge a 2-1 loss suffered at Florida a few nights ago. *Southeast Division GOM
burns college basketball
SAN DIEGO
Game: San Diego State vs. San Diego Game Time: 11/19/2007 10:00:00 PM Prediction: San Diego Reason: I'm taking the points with SAN DIEGO. This is a huge game in the San Diego college basketball scene. As Aztecs' senior guard Matt Thomas told the North County Times: "It's the championship of San Diego...It's a big game for both teams...." The Aztecs boast another athletic team and are off to an undefeated start. However, their window for a potential national breakthrough may have been slammed shut with the departures of Brandon Heath and Mohamed Abukar and the dismissal of Jerome Habel. Note that Heath, Abukar and Habel accounted for 61 percent of the points last season. Junior point guard Richie Williams and junior forward Lorrenzo Wade were two of the players expected to help to pick up the slack. However, while Wade has been decent, Williams has only played 18 minutes thus far (went 0 for 5) and is expected to miss tonight's game. Lately, regardless of how strong the Aztecs are, this rivalry has produced extremely close games. In fact, five of the past seven meetings have been decided by six points or fewer. Last year, the Toreros traveled to Cox Arena as +15.5 point underdogs and lost by only three points. This year, they bring back almost all the same players and get to play on their home floor. That's significant as we find the Toreros at a perfect 5-0 ATS the last five series meetings here, winning outright 90-80, as +4 underdogs, most recently. In fact, the Toreros won four of those five games outright and lost the other by only three points. This year the Toreros have a new coach, Bill Grier, who brings over a winning attitude from 16 years as an assistant at Gonzaga. Although they came up short vs. UNLV, the Toreros are both talented and experienced. Look for them to continue their strong play in this rivalry, improving to 12-5 ATS the last 17 times they were underdogs of six points or less. *Annihilator
burns NFL
UNDER tennessee/denver (37 or better)
Game: Tennessee Titans vs. Denver Broncos Game Time: 11/19/2007 8:30:00 PM Prediction: under Reason: I'm playing on Tennessee and Denver to finish UNDER the number. Both teams saw their most recent game slip above the posted total. That has helped caused tonight's over/under line to remain above the key number of 37, which I feel gives us excellent value on the UNDER. While last week's game finished above the total, the Titans have still seen the UNDER go a profitable 7-2 for the season with five of those games finishing at 33 combined points or less. While the Broncos last road game finished with 38 points, their most recent home game (vs. Green Bay) finished with only 32. That game was also on a Monday Night, which brought the UNDER to 3-0 in their last three Monday Night contests. Its also worth noting that the Broncos, who held the Chiefs to only 11 points last week, have seen the UNDER go 7-2 the last nine times that they were coming off a win over a divsion rival. Both teams will be looking to establish the run. I expect both run defenses to also play well though. The Broncos held the Chiefs to just 67 rushing yards last week, stacking the line with eight and nine man fronts. They're likely to employ a similar strategy vs. a Titans offense which ranks last in the AFC in total passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the Titans' defense has stopped opponents for no gain or hit them for a loss more than 43% of the time and their first-down defense yields an average of just 4.26 yards, the second-best mark in the league. Both teams are expecting to have key defensive players back in the lineup tonight and I'm expecting a relatively low-scoring affair that falls below the number. *Main Event
Burns NBA
NETS
Game: New Jersey Nets vs. Utah Jazz Game Time: 11/19/2007 9:05:00 PM Prediction: New Jersey Nets Reason: I'm taking the points with NEW JERSEY. The Nets have fallen upon hard times lately. However, they're still a talented team and I expect a visit to Utah to be just what the doctor ordered for their recent pointspread woes. In fact, the Nets scored the outright win the last time they played here which brought them to 6-1 SU/ATS the last seven meetings in this series. The Jazz, 4-8-1 ATS as home favorites in the -9.5 to -12 range the past two years, didn't play well on their recent road trip and are now playing their first game back home, often a difficult spot. Despite coming up short at Boston in their last road game, the Nets remain a healthy 11-6-1 ATS their last 18 road games. The 89.5 points they are allowing on the road so far this season ranks third best in the league, while their overall defense ranks seventh. Look for the Nets to continue their strong play in this series as they give the Jazz all they can handle, covering the generous number.
Michael Cannon
Monday's Plays...
10 Dime –
TITANS
Take the Titans tonight over the Broncos at Mile High.
There’s something to be said about a team that has had problems stopping the run all season going against a team that has a run-first mentality. Denver has no way to mask any weaknesses against the run tonight. They are going to have to sell out all game long if they want to keep the Titans from running up and down the field on them.
It all starts with Vince Young at quarterback. If he is able to roll out or break contain against Denver it’s going to be a long night for the Broncos. Young’s stats aren’t pretty, but he somehow finds a way to win games. He’s basically a modern-day Bobby Layne.
Denver has injury issues with wide receiver Javon Walker out and running back Travis Henry questionable. I can’t trust Jay Cutler to carry this team yet. He’s going to have to make plays downfield to win this game and I just don’t see him coming through yet.
Tennessee is 8-3 ATS against AFC competition, while Denver is 3-14 ATS in its last 17 games overall and 1-12 ATS in its last 13 home games. The Broncos are also just 2-10 ATS against AFC foes.
Take the Titans as they get it done in Denver tonight.
LSU
Lay the small number with Lsu today over Oklahoma State in the Maui Invitational.
I can’t trust the Cowboys here in this spot. Head coach Sean Sutton is feeling the heat already even though this is only his second season. He has seven newcomers this year and they are going to need time to gel.
Doing so against an opponent like Lsu isn’t the best-case scenario for them.
The Tigers have excellent backcourt defenders which is going to make it difficult for Oklahoma State to get many open outside looks. Since the Cowboys don’t have a dominant presence in the paint, their offense will struggle today.
Lay the small number as Lsu grabs the win and cover.
UCLA
Lay the points with Ucla over Maryland in the semifinal round of the O’Reilly Auto Parts CBB Experience.
I’m not about to side with a Maryland team that had problems getting past Northeastern last Thursday. They had to go to overtime before squeaking by, 74-72.
They are simply not ready to stay close with a Ucla team that is solid in all phases of the game.
The Bruins are the No. 2 ranked team in the nation for good reason. They have a head coach in Ben Howland who excels in getting his team to play shut-down defense.
Ucla also has a newcomer in power forward Kevin Love who has the capability of putting up a double-double every game. He is the Bruins best prospect in years.
Even though point guard Darren Collison is out with an injury, the Bruins have several other players who can step up in his absence. They will shut down the Maryland offense like they do every other opponent and grind it out on the offensive end, eventually pulling away in the second half.
Lay the points as Ucla wins and covers this one with ease
Scott Spreitzer's CBB Tourney Mismatch Game of the Week! (15-2, 88%!)
My Tourney Mismatch of the Week is a play on UCLA, minus points over Maryland. Terps coach Gary Williams is dealing with a lot of new faces to start the season. One of the problems created by an influx of youth is the propensity for a high number of turnovers. Maryland was taken to overtime in their last game by Northeastern, a team I have pegged for eighth in the CAA. Maryland finished the game with a 14-to-23, assist-to-turnover ratio. They also struggled on the boards, allowing the Huskies to pound the glass for 15 offensive rebounds. Those aren't exactly confidence-building numbers when lining up against UCLA, the team I believe is the best in the nation. Look for the Bruins to handle Maryland's youth, forcing several turnovers, leading to easy baskets. I believe UCLA will pull away and win this one by 20. The Bruins are my Tourney Mismatch of the Week. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Scott Spreitzer's CBB Monday Night Knockout! *4-0, 100%!
I'm laying it with Dukie on Monday night. The Blue Devils suffered a disappointing season last year. They came out smoking and on a mission in their opener, a 65-point win over NC Central. Just to show they mean business, they rocked a decent NMSU squad by 25-points last Monday. Duke clobbered a talented Aggies' team on the glass and forced NMSU into a minus-14, assist-to-turnover ratio! Tonight, they'll take on a Princeton team that looks destined for the cellar this year in the Ivy League. Sydney Johnson takes over as coach and he has a young squad to try and mold in a hurry. The Tigers are off to a 2-0 start, squeeking out wins over a hapless Iona program and Central Connecticut State. Princeton actually trailed the CCSU Blue Devils by eight points at the half, putting up just 16 points in 20 minutes. The huge step-up tonight against the "other" Blue Devils will be too much too soon for the young Tigers. Look for the new-and-improved and refocused Duke Blue Devils to hammer Princeton from the start and not let up. Duke is my Monday night Knockout. Thanks! GL! Scott.
Pointwise
Phones
2* Tennessee
Maddux Sports
2 units on Denver -1.5
ace-ace / allan eastman
20 tenn ml +110
DOCs
3 Unit Play. #530 Take Illinois -2 ½ over Arizona State (11:30 pm ESPN 2) The Fighting Illini already have a victory over Hawaii on the islands and are catching the Sun Devils at just the right moment, as they have yet to play a game in 2007. ASU was bad last year and don’t expect much improvement early on this year. Illinois will dominate on the boards and earn their third victory of the young season. Coach Pearl has an outstanding non-conference record and does not lose many games that he is supposed to win.
3 Unit Play. #532 Take UCLA -10 over Maryland (7:00 pm ESPN 2) Maryland has underachieved for a while since winning it all early in this decade and has been a selfish team that does not play much defense. That does not bode well when playing the Bruins, the best defensive team in the country. UCLA had a great recruiting class led by Kevin Love and Ben Howland can flat out coach and now he has talent to go along with that. UCLA pulls away late to win this game by 15 points.
3 Unit Play. #533 Take Missouri +3 over Michigan State (9:30 ESPN U) The oddsmakers have failed to realize that this neutral site location greatly favors the Tigers and expect them to pack the stands with fans. Michigan State has always started out slow in past years playing a brutal non-conference schedule that prepares them well for March, but takes its toll on them in November/December. The Tigers can now play defense led by Coach Anderson’s hard noise style that he brought over from UAB and thus will earn the victory on Monday, giving us a nice underdog cash.
Ferringo
4.5-Unit Play. Take #509 Western Michigan (-2) over Detroit (7 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19)
Western Michigan has won two of the last three meetings between these two schools and covered four out of six. Brandon Cotton has officially left Detroit, leaving them without their top perimeter player. WMU is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 nonconference games and has an advantage with experience, depth, talent and height. The average margin of victory in this series over the past 10 years is 11.8 points. And while WMU won’t win by that much, they will win handily.
3.5-Unit Play. Take ‘Under’ 145.0 Missouri vs. Michigan State (9:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19)
1-Unit Play. Take Missouri (+3) over Michigan State (9:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19)
Michigan State has been lackluster, at best, up to this point in the season and Missouri is a team that I have tabbed as a sleeper in the Big 12. I think that this is a great spot to collect on the under, as the Tigers’ deliberate sets against the Spartans’ physical defense will slow this tempo to a halt. Also, MSG isn’t a place that either team is used to playing so I’m expecting a lot of clankers as these teams stay in the 60’s.
2-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #529 Arizona State (+8.5) over Illinois (11:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19) AND Take #518 Charlotte (-2.5) over Monmouth (3:30 p.m., Monday, Nov. 19)
Note: This is a 5-point teaser. If you prefer, or if you use a local that doesn’t allow teasers, you can play these as straight sides for 1-Unit apiece. I like both picks and love the value of the extra points in each game, hence the teaser. Do not play ASU for less than +3.0 and do not play Charlotte above -8.0.
Illinois has yet to impress me and this is a team I’m looking to fade early in the year and play on a bit later. Arizona State is a team I’m high on and this game should be played in the 50’s so having those extra points will be a tremendous advantage. I do think the Sun Devils can win this one outright.
Monmouth is a one-dimensional team that is not highly regarded even in the NEC. Charlotte is comparable to Notre Dame and Seton Hall, two teams that thrashed Monmouth, so we’ll look for more of the same this afternoon. Also, a win in this early game sets up another middling opportunity.
Eastman
1-Unit Play Take #532 UCLA Bruins -10 over Maryland Terrapins. (Monday, November 19, 7:00 pm EST).
UCLA (3-0) has the potential to be "scary good" this season. They've started the season without All-American point guard Darren Collisonn (knee), Michael Roll (torn plantar fascia) and James Keefe (off-season foot surgery). Collison probably wont be back until late November, perhaps in time for the game against George Washington game. Even without those players, the Bruins have won their first three games by an average of 29.0 points, and freshman Kevin Love has been a big reason why. Love has scored in double figures in each of the first three games, barely missing double-doubles in the most recent two. Love, last year’s player of the year in High School, is averaging 20.7 points and 10.3 rebounds. Some veteran scouts say Love is the best big man at UCLA since Bill Walton and that's high praise indeed. Maryland is also 3-0, but coach Gary Williams has been unhappy with his teams sloppy play and lack of effort. After coasting to a win over North Florida, the Terrapins have struggled since against Hampton and Northeaster, shooting 40% each game. Now they get to face Ben Howland's defense oriented team. Don't be fooled. This is NOT one of Maryland’s great teams. Instead it’s one that UCLA should handle easily.
Winning Points Online NBA POD
**PREFERRED
Seattle over Memphis* by 4
In his first season as head coach of Memphis,
Marc Iavaroni is juggling three point guards
with second-season Kyle Lowry, veteran starter
Damon Stoudamire and rookie Mike Conley. Lowry
was injured all last year and Stoudamire is a
long-time slug.
"Obviously, if you don't have the success you start
to say 'Are we doing this the right way? Is this going
to work for us?' We're still learning," Iavaroni said.
Not exactly what you want to hear from a team laying
about 6.5 points.
Against opponents with a dominant post player,
Seattle's small lineup is overmatched. Pau Gasol is
not a dominant post player. Sonics do well for us,
don't they? SEATTLE, 107-103.
Winning Points Online NFL POD
* CLOSE CALL
Denver* over Tennessee by 6
Broncos' offensive coordinator Mike Heimerdinger
spent a few seasons as the Tennessee offensive
coordinator and the current Titans' defensive
coordinator Schwartz is the same guy who was
there when Heimerdinger was at Tennessee. He
knows that Tennessee's defense sells out against
the run first and foremost. Which means that
Jay Cutler will probably be throwing more than
usual to keep the Titans' defense off balance,
and have a better game than Jay Cutler can
normally be expected to have, as Cutler
has a 70% completion rate and is throwing
against a defense whose defensive ends are
injured. DENVER, 23-17.