Indian Cowboy
Monday NFL
New England @ Cincy
Is this another opportunity for the Patriots to show their dominance and to play with a chip on their shoulder after the harsh punishment that came down on Coach B? I think so. Humorous that the Pats have scored 38 points in each of their last 3 victories. The Bengals defense is horrible and continues to be overrated each year as this team miraculously gets overrated each year. Each year, they hear the cries of going dancing into the playoffs, and each year they fall short. In essence, they are like the NFC's St. Louis Rams of a couple years ago and even last year when there is so much expectations, but all that results are one L behind another L, behind another L. The total opened at 52 and has moved up to 53.5 in most places with some sprinkles of 54 in some places as well. The spread also opened up at -7 and has moved up to -7.5 and I've even seem some -8 and-8.5 earlier in the week until it has been bought down a bit of late. Rudi Johnson is not expected to play but he hasn't done all that well anywhere this year so it could be useful for the Bengals to see something different. New England has covered the last 5 ballgames from last year and are 3-0 ATS including covering a huge spread against the Bills last time out. NE has covered the last 2 years as the last 2 games totaled 51 and 36 and both of those games were on the road. This is going to be fun watching the #1 offense and #1 defense in the league in New England hit the road to face the #3 offense and 30th ranked defense in the league. I think this game goes NE and the Under.
Ats Lock Club
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3 units on theColorado Rockies (+125) over the San Diego Padres, 7:30
Mr A's
Monday, October 1st, 2007, 7:37 p.m. est.
San Diego Padres (89-73) at Colorado Rockies (89-73)
(R) Jake Peavy (19-6) vs. (R) Josh Fogg (10-9)
Padres' (R) Jake Peavy
San Diego sends Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.36 ERA) to the hill. The right-hander is 10-1 with a 2.20 ERA in his last 13 starts. Peavy is 4-4 with a 4.11 ERA against the Rockies in 12 career starts. He went without a decision and a 1.29 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this season.
Colorado counters with Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.79). The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.94 ERA in his last six outings and is 3-2 with a 5.48 ERA in his career against San Diego, including 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA in three outings this season.
The hot Rockies won the last four meetings versus the Padres, but will face San Diego's ace Jake Peavy, who is 7-1 in his last 10 starts. The Padres’ ace has been outstanding away from home this season, going 10-1 with a 2.16 ERA. San Diego has won eight of Peavy's last 9 road starts. Take the Padres with Peavy at the helm to win the tiebreaker and wrap up the National League's wild card race.
Oddsmakers:
San Diego as a -135 road favorite with the total listed at 9'over'.
San Diego Padres
THE SPORTS ADVISORS
NFL
New England (3-0 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
The high-scoring, unbeaten Patriots travel to Cincinnati to take on the Bengals in a nationally televised contest at Paul Brown Stadium.
The Bengals come into this one off last week’s 24-21 loss at Seattle, though they did cash as a 3½-point underdog. In its lone home game this season, Cincinnati beat Baltimore 27-20 as a 2½-point chalk.
New England has scored 38 points in each of its first three games, beating the Jets and Chargers by identical 38-14 scores and then trouncing the Bills 38-7 as a 16½-point chalk at home last week.
Ironically, Bill Belichick’s Patriots scored exactly 38 points a year ago in Cincinnati, beating the Bengals 38-13 as 5½-point underdogs and sending the Bengals into a 5-8 tailspin to end the season. Prior to last year’s clash, Cincinnati had been on a 4-0 ATS run against New England.
Patriots QB Tom Brady leads the NFL with a 141.8 quarterback rating, completing almost 80 percent of his throws for 887 yards, 10 TDs and just one INT. His favorite target has quickly become newcomer Randy Moss, who has 403 yards receiving and five TDs.
Tonight the Patriots face a Cincinnati defense giving up 402.7 yards and 31.7 points per game, fourth-worst in the NFL in both categories.
Offensively, Marvin Lewis’ Bengals rank second in passing offense, with QB Carson Palmer throwing for 937 yards and nine TDs. WR Chad Johnson has 442 yards receiving and fellow WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh leads the NFL with 46 catches.
New England is 26-10-1 ATS in its last 37 road games, 23-8 ATS against teams with a losing record and has cashed a ticket in seven of the last 10 appearances on Monday night.
Cincinnati is mired in a 1-10 ATS slump in Week 4 games and 3-7-1 ATS against teams with a winning record.
The over is 3-0 for the Pats this season and 2-1 for the Bengals. Also, the last three regular-season clashes between these squads have topped the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and OVER
Sebastian
7* CINN/NE over
15* CINN
Nick Parsons
Guaranteed Pick:
Game: San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies Oct 1 2007 7:35PM
Prediction: under
Reason: This game features Jake Peavy (19-6, 2.36 ERA) of the Padres vs. Josh Fogg (10-9, 4.79) of the Rockies. San Diego could have nailed down a postseason spot outright by winning either of its last two regular-season games. The Padres were one strike away from wrapping up a victory Saturday at Milwaukee, but all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman gave up a game-tying triple to Tony Gwynn Jr. in an eventual 4-3 loss in 11 innings. San Diego also fell 11-6 on Sunday to the Brewers, and Colorado took advantage with a 4-3 victory over NL West champion Arizona. It was the Rockies' 13th in 14 games, and left them needing one more win to secure their first playoff berth since 1995. With a 10-1 record and 2.20 ERA in his last 13 starts, Peavy is a front-runner for NL Cy Young Award. He's also the majors' best pitcher on the road, going 10-1 with a 2.16 ERA in 14 outings. Peavy has no record and a 1.29 ERA in two starts against the Rockies this year. Fogg has been pitching very well lately; he is 3-0 with a 2.94 ERA in his last six outings, including wins over San Diego's Chris Young and Arizona’s Brandon Webb. The veteran right-hander is 3-2 with a 5.48 ERA in his career against San Diego, including 1-1 with a 6.28 ERA in three outings this season. The last five times these teams have met, the total has gone ‘under’ the number; with so much on the line, and considering how well these pitchers have performed recently, my NL West Total of the Month is on the UNDER
Big Al
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the SD Padres with Jake Peavy over Colorado. Although the Rockies are the hottest team going right now, they've never fared well vs. Peavy, who will win the NL Cy Young Award this year. Peavy leads the Majors in ERA (2.36) and is second in wins (19). And he's also 10-1 in his last 13 starts, and his ERA this season vs. Colorado is 1.29 (in two starts). Josh Fogg has also pitched well lately, but his ERA this season vs. the Padres was a poor 6.28 (in three starts). This is also a rare time one can bet on Jake Peavy and lay less than -160. He's faced 10 National League clubs this year with odds less than -160 and the Padres were 9-1 with their only loss coming back in April (3-2 to Arizona), and Peavy threw seven shutout innings in that game, but the SD bullpen let him down. Josh Fogg does his worst work at home (6.28 ERA this year), while Peavy's over-performed on the road (2.16 ERA this year).
Take San Diego
Kiki Sports GOY New England -7.5
JEFF BENTON
Patriots-Bengals game to go OVER the total
There really isn’t much to analyze here, as there are obviously a boatload of playmakers on the offensive side of the ball for both teams, from the Palmer/Ocho Cinco/T.J. trifecta to the explosive Brady/Moss/Stallworth/Welker combination.
Through three games, the Bengals have averaged 31 points and 393 yards per contest, incluing 301 passing yards per game, and they’ve scored at least 24 points in all three contests. Meanwhile, New England has tallied exactly 38 points in all three of its games, rolling up 441 yards of total offense in the process (289 ypg passing).
Well, tonight, the Pats face a porous Bengals’ defense that’s allowing 31.7 points and 402.7 points per outing, so you know New England is going to put points on the board. And while the Pats’ defense has been extremely stout so far, it hasn’t faced an offense as complete and potent as Cincinnati’s. Thus, you have to figure that the Bengals will find the end zone on multiple occasions, too.
Throw in some juicy trends – the Patriots have topped the total in all three of their games this season, Cincinnati has done so in two of its three and the over is 4-0 in the last four meetings – and this one pretty much becomes a no-brainer.
(based on a 1 to a 10 ♦ Rating)
3♦ Bengals-Patriots OVER
HAWKEYE SPORTS
Colorado & San Diego under 9 runs
NFL Chicks
5 units NEP -7.5
5 units Over 53
1 unit NEP moneyline -360
1 unit parlay NEP & Over
Corp Sports
1st half NEP -4
spreitzer--
ko.................padres
direct line release................cincy over
feist--
platinum..............................col
personal elite........................cincy over
Northcoast Marq.-----over 54
Ats Lock Club
3 units on theColorado Rockies (+125) over the San Diego Padres, 7:30